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The International Grains Council flagged "escalating concerns" of a squeeze on milling wheat supplies, even as it hiked its forecast for world grains output to a record high, including a record harvest of wheats overall.

The intergovernmental group upgraded by 23m tonnes to 2.069bn tonnes its forecast for combined 2016-17 world production of wheat and coarse grains such as barley, corn and sorghum, taking the figure above the all-time high set two years ago.

The revision reflected "further upward revisions" both for corn, for which the world production estimate was lifted by 13m tonnes to a record 1.03bn tonnes, and for wheat.

"Increases for [wheat production in] the former Soviet Union and the US are again partly offset by a reduced figure for the European Union," the IGC said, lifting its estimate for overall global what output in 2016-17 by 8m tonnes.

'Escalating concerns'

The revision upgraded the wheat crop to a record top of 743m tonnes, eclipsing last year's all-time high, besides enabling growth of 12m tonnes to 229m tonnes in world carryout stocks over the season.

However, the IGC warned that the "new peak" in world wheat production disguised worries about the availability of higher quality supplies used in food, rather than livestock feed.

"Although the wheat harvest will likely be a new peak, the past month has seen escalating concerns about availabilities of milling grades," the council said.

"Ample rains boosted average yields of wheat in many places, but caused some quality downgrading."

FranceAgriMer et ARVALIS-Institut du végétal réalisent chaque année une enquête sur la qualité de la récolte française de blé, véritable référence pour tous les acteurs de la filière, utilisateurs et acheteurs, en France comme à l'étranger. Les résultats définitifs seront présentés au prochain Conseil spécialisé céréales du 14 septembre 2016.
Trois bulletins hebdomadaires sont publiés en amont, pour communiquer aux opérateurs les résultats partiels sur la qualité technologique des blés 2016 (protéines, poids spécifiques, temps de chute de Hagberg, force boulangère…)  au fil des analyses effectuées par son laboratoire.  Des indicateurs précieux pour mieux cerner la réalité du terrain d'ici septembre !

Consultez les premiers résultats partiels au 22 août 2016 via le site open data de FranceAgriMer VISIONet en accédant au site ( lien d'accès ) ou en ouvrant le document ci-dessous.

Prochains rendez-vous les 31 août et 7 septembre 2016.

The German association of farm cooperatives trimmed its idea of the country's wheat harvest by some 1.2m tonnes, citing heavy rain.

The association saw production in the EU's second-ranked wheat grower at 24.21m tonnes, down from the 25.40m tonnes forecast last month.

This will leave the crop down 8.8% year on year, and would be the smallest harvests since 2012.

But the association was more positive on wheat quality, which was expected to be good despite the rain.

Wet weather hits harvest

As well as wet weather in the south, and dry weather in the north, in early summer, the crop has also been hit by rain during harvest time, the association said, with dry weather needed to complete the harvest.

The Paris based consultancy Agritel said Germany experienced dry weather over the weekend, "and should register a significant advance of works this week".

Germany's 2016 winter rapeseed harvest, which is almost complete, was forecast to fall by 10.9% on the year to 4.46m tonnes, a 480,000 tonne trim from the July forecast

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is being asked to consider a wheat storage program offered by a U.S. company before Algeria gets a chance to grab the $250 million investment.
Blumberg Grain expects to reach an agreement with Egypt in the next two weeks to expand its wheat storage network, according to a company statement issued Sunday. A resolution is needed “as soon as possible as there are other countries competing for the investment program,” the company said. Egypt stands to save $550 million a year of wheat now lost every year from waste, according to Blumberg.
“There are a number of countries competing for the investment program, for example Algeria” which “has expressed strong interest,” David Blumberg, chief executive officer of Blumberg Grain – Middle East & Africa, said by phone on Sunday. “We have a $250 million investment allocation towards the region.”
Crop Wasted
Wasted grain is a big problem for Egypt, where rising food prices intensified unrest that led to the overthrow of the government during Arab Spring protests in 2011. Wheat from local farmers is often stored in open-air pits, with as much as half of the crop lost each year to pigeons, rodents and thieves scavenging national stockpiles, according to Blumberg. The country spends billions of dollars on grain each year for a subsidized bread program to ensure its people can afford food.
Blumberg has completed the first phase of its project in Egypt, installing 93 steel sheds, each able to hold 8,000 metric tons of grain, according to Blumberg. The second phase includes building 300 warehouses storing 2.35 million tons of locally grown grain, Blumberg said Sunday. The sites will clean, weigh, bag and monitor grain as it moves from warehouse to flour miller, he said.
Egypt’s economy stands to gain $8 billion over the next five years from the program as it would generate hard currency from exports, according to the Blumberg statement.
Source: Bloomberg

Russia is headed for a bumper wheat harvest, but quality is disappointing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell, Black Earth Farming said.

The Russian farm operator sees the country's overall wheat production prospects this year at 66-68m tonnes, thanks to "increased winter wheat planted area, very low winter kill and plentiful moisture".

Overall grain production was seen at a record 108m tonnes.

Disappointing protein levels

But protein content is disappointing, even as the poor EU harvest increases export demand for milling-grade wheat.

"Wheat quality so far looks worse than average," Black Earth said.

And the progress of the harvest has been slow so far this year, with only 36% of the company's wheat harvested by August 10.

"The winter wheat yield to date of 4.9 tonnes per hectare is a very promising start but harvest is somewhat delayed and additional resources are being used to catch up."

"Exporters and domestic buyers are keen to purchase at current low levels but farmers are reluctant sellers due to a delayed harvest and low prices," Black Earth said.

World grains production will come just 1m tonnes from its record high, the International Grains Council said, lifting in particular its forecast for output of corn, in which it ditched an estimate of a drop in stocks.

The intergovernmental group hiked by 20m tonnes to 2.046bn tonnes its forecast for global output of coarse grains and wheat in 2016-17, taking the figure within an ace of the record high set two seasons ago.

The upgrade reflected in part an increase of 6m tonnes, to 735m tonnes, in the estimate for world wheat output, as improved estimates for former Soviet Union and US crops offset a downgrade to expectations for the European Union harvest.

"Wheat harvests are significantly exceeding expectations in the US and [former Soviet Union], but results have been poorer than predicted in parts of the EU, particularly in France," the council said.

Indeed, in the EU, "there is increasing evidence of yield and quality damage following untimely rains".

'Solid rebound'

However, the bulk of the grains upgrade was down to an increase of 14m tonnes to 1.017bn tonnes in the forecast for world corn output, taking the estimate 1m tonnes from the 2014-15 record high.

"After last year's decline, a solid rebound in global corn output is anticipated, with most of the gain in the major exporters," the IGC said.

"Better crop prospects in the US account for most of the change for corn."

Les capacités de stockage de céréales estimées actuellement à 1,2 million de quintaux à Constantine seront prochainement renforcées grâce à la réalisation de deux silos totalisant 700.000 quintaux, a indiqué jeudi le directeur de la Coopérative des Céréales et des Légumes secs (CCLS).
Le premier silo, d’une capacité de 500.000 quintaux, est en cours de réalisation dans la commune d’El Khroub, a précisé Ahmed Souiad, lors d'une rencontre-évaluation de la campagne moisson-battage, tenue au siège de la direction des services agricoles.
Les travaux de réalisation de ce projet avancent à un rythme jugé "satisfaisant", atteignant 60 % et seront réceptionnés en mars 2017, a-t-il assuré, ajoutant que le second silo est prévu dans la commune de Zighoud Youcef, d’une capacité de 200.000 quintaux dont les travaux de réalisation sont en voie de lancement.
Ces deux projets, une fois réceptionnés, permettront de répondre aux préoccupations des céréaliculteurs, souvent confrontés à des difficultés de stockage et de conditionnement des récoltes lorsque l’année est bonne, a encore indiqué le même responsable.

Chinese corn prices, down some 25% over the past year, could be set for further declines, the International Grains Council said, amid worries that the weakness is weighing on US values too.

China's corn prices - as measured in Jinzhou, in the key north eastern producing region - have fallen close to 1,800 yuan a tonne, down some 600 yuan year on year.

The drop, which has extended a decline from 2,600 yuan-a-tonne touched two years ago, reflects changes to China's subsidy regime – first a drop of more than 100 yuan a tonne last year, to 2,000 yuan a tonne, in the guaranteed procurement price, followed by this year's more radical reforms.

The government earlier this month unveiled a 30bn-yan ($4.5bn) corn subsidy programme based on seeded area rather than production for the four key north eastern producing provinces of Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning, which between them are responsible for some 40% of domestic output.

The revised handout works out at payment of about 1,940 yuan ($292) per hectare.

Paris, 24 août 2016 (AFP) - Les prix européens du blé et du maïs étaient proches de l'équilibre mercredi en milieu de journée, dans un contexte qui reste marqué par les bonnes récoltes à travers le monde, à l'exception de la France.

L'Egypte, 1er importateur mondial de blé, a annulé un appel d'offres, rapportent plusieurs analystes. « La raison officielle n'a pas été communiquée mais des prix jugés trop élevés peuvent être une explication », estime la société Inter-Courtage dans une note.

Les exportateurs de blé de la mer Noire (Ukraine, Russie, Roumanie) sont actuellement en pleine offensive commerciale pour écouler leur importante production.

Après les Etats-Unis, le Canada a annoncé mardi s'attendre lui aussi à une moisson de blé en nette hausse (+ 10,5 % par rapport à 2015), avec une progression particulièrement marquée pour le blé dur, utilisé pour la fabrication de pâtes et de semoule.

En France, où la moisson est catastrophique, l'Association générale des producteurs de blé, 1er syndicat du secteur, a appelé mercredi le gouvernement à mettre en oeuvre rapidement le plan d'urgence annoncé fin juillet pour aider les céréaliers en difficulté.

L'AGPB demande notamment aux pouvoirs publics de « concrétiser au plus vite leur engagement de faciliter l'octroi de prêts exceptionnels via le cautionnement à moindre frais de ces prêts par la BPI (Banque publique d'investissement) ».

Sur Euronext vers 12H45 (10H45 GMT), la tonne de blé gagnait 25 centimes sur l'échéance de septembre à 156,25 euros et restait stable sur celle de décembre à 164,50 euros. 8 000 lots environ avaient été échangés.

Le maïs gagnait 25 centimes sur l'échéance de novembre à 165 euros et restait stable sur l'échéance de janvier à 167 euros. Quelque 130 lots avaient changé de main.

In 2015/16 Ukraine exported 344.2 KMT of flour, which is 32% higher than previous record set in 2014/15– 260.3 KMT.

China remained key market for Ukrainian flour. In 2015/16 Ukraine increased exports to China by 35% to 83.3 KMT. Also higher volumes were purchased by Indonesia, Palestine, Panama and Moldova. In 2015/16 Ukrainian exporters opened such markets as Libya and Angola. Decrease in exports was observed to Israel and Syria.

More information on Ukrainian flour market is available in UkrAgroConsult's report "Ukraine. Wheat flour and bran market".

In 2015/16 Russian wheat exports totaled 24.65 MMT of wheat, which was 15% more than the record of the previous season 21.4 MMT.
Main tendencies of the finished season were decrease in wheat purchases from Turkey and higher exports to Egypt. Thus, share of Turkey in Russian wheat exports lowered from 20% in 2014/15 to 13% in 2015/16. Along with this share of Egypt grew to 25% against 16% in 2014/15.
Moreover, in 2015/16 Russia increased wheat exports to EU countries to 1 MMT, which was 65% more than in 2014/15 (600 KMT). In 2016/17 we expect recovery in exports to Turkey and further increase in exports to EU.

Egypt has tightened its agriculture quarantine regulations, imposing a rule that will prevent grain shipments suspected of contamination from being offloaded until they receive test results, according to a letter sent to traders on Monday.

The rule comes just one month after the world's biggest wheat buyer discontinued its controversial zero tolerance policy on ergot, a common grains fungus, in favour of the international standard of 0.05 percent. It ends a months-long dispute over import policy that saw suppliers raise prices and boycott state tenders.

The new grains import restriction, reviewed by Reuters, will prevent shipments spotted with any level of a contaminant, including ergot, from being offloaded until test results show they comply with quarantine regulations. That is in contrast to old rules that allowed for testing after discharge.

The new rule may raise costs for suppliers forced to pay fees to hold their shipments at the port for extended periods.

It comes amid renewed uncertainty over ergot policies after the discharge of 33,000 tonnes of Russian wheat was abruptly halted at the port of Damietta after arriving on July 22 and being suspected of containing ergot.

The spokesman for the agriculture ministry could not confirm whether the shipment had been rejected or what level of ergot it may contain, but said that samples from it were being tested.

Germany's wheat crop joined France's in suffering downgrades as the round of cuts to European Union prospects continued, including a forecast that the bloc's exports will plunge by one-quarter.

Estimates for France's harvest sustained the bulk of the writedown as Strategie Grains cut by 7.7m tonnes, to 137.9m tonnes, its forecast for the European Union soft wheat crop this year.

The French harvest, the EU's biggest, was – thanks to "disastrous" yields - pegged at 29.9m tonnes, a downgrade of 6m tonnes from last month's forecast, although a little above estimates from some other commentators.

Indeed, separately on Thursday, CRM AgriCommodities pegged French production at 28m-29m tonnes, as it downgraded to 128.9m tonnes its estimate for overall EU output, down from a figure of 131m-132m tonnes made two weeks ago.

In eastern France, "wheat crops looked terrible", CRM co-founder Ben Bodart told Agrimoney.com, citing findings of a crop visit, adding that "hulls were not filled at all".

'Quality concerns are emerging'

However, the groups also confirmed expectations of a drop in production in second-ranked Germany too, albeit by nowhere near the same extent as the fall French output, with Strategie Grains lowering its forecast by 1.0m tonnes to 25.0m tonnes.

CRM, pegging the crop at 22.5m-23.0m tonnes said that yields in Germany were "likely to be 10-20% down" year on year.

In both Germany and Poland, the EU's fourth-biggest wheat producer, "quality concerns are emerging as the harvest progresses", CRM said, if underlining that "the crop is less damaged than in France".

France could lose its position as the EU's top wheat exporter, after a "disastrous" French harvest, Paris-based consultancy Agritel said.

The decline is expected hit exports outside the EU, which are seen falling to just 5.1m tonnes, compared to 12.6m tonnes last season.

This would be below projected German exports of 6.65m tonnes,

Quality concerns

The fall in exports is the result of a sharply lower harvest, which is seen at 28.68m tonnes, down 30% from last year, thanks to heavy rain across many key French growing areas.

This is a touch lower than the 29.1m tonnes crop forecast buy FranceAgriMer.

And as well as lowering yields, the rains have also taken their toll on quality.

This quality is a key factor for French wheat, if it is to win export contracts for milling wheat outside the EU, such as in the North African market.

This report provides tables describing the European Union's agricultural trade position with the world in quantities - at aggregated product level and by destination - over a 10-year period.

It is based on Eurostat data and the definition of the aggregates can be found in Annex #1.

CAIRO, July 26 (Reuters) - Official Egyptian inspection committees have so far found that some 4 percent of 5 million tonnes of locally purchased wheat is missing from silos, Egypt's supply minister said on Tuesday.

Khaled Hanafi added, however, that he was not politically responsible for any alleged fraud, as the world's top wheat buyer continued a month-long corruption investigation.

"Why should I be politically responsible? What wrongdoing took place? What is the mistake that the government made that it should not make again?" Hanafi told Reuters in an interview.

Egypt's general prosecutor has said some local wheat was bought by the government in paper transactions only and not physically delivered. He has ordered travel bans, frozen funds and arrested several private silo owners suspected of corruption.

Parliament has also set up a fact-finding commission to look into the allegations of corruption in wheat procurement.

"Reports indicate 4 percent of the value of the wheat," Hanafi said, adding that the parliamentary inspection committee continued to do its work but a committee led by his ministry had finalised inspections.

Egypt contracts with private-sector suppliers to store and deliver wheat to government mills, as the government says it lacks adequate capacity to stockpile the grain.

But the practice was called into question this year after an unusually high procurement figure prompted allegations of possible fraud from top industry officials, traders and members of parliament and led to the recount.


HIGH-TECH SILOS UNUSED

Blumberg Grain said last week its high-tech silos, the first phase of a wheat storage development project in Egypt that could have prevented such fraud, were not used to store grain this local harvest season despite being delivered on time.

The storage systems of the grain logistics company were expected to process and monitor about a quarter of the domestic crop.

"Most of the Blumberg storage sites came into service after the local harvesting season," Hanafi said.

Hanafi said the second phase of Blumberg's project was rejected by the state's Holding Company for Silos and Storage.

"(Blumberg) proposed a second phase to the holding company but the technicians there saw that the offer technically and financially was not suitable," he said.

Hanafi said that for the next local purchasing season, the government would again propose reforms for the system to prevent any corruption.