MED-Amin network

Was that it for the wheat rally?

Wheat futures in early deals extended their pullback from highs reached some 24 hours ago, after a hellish weekend for US winter wheat which market talk said had dented production hopes to the tune of 50m-150m bushels (1.5m-4m tonnes).

As Benson Quinn Commodities put it: "Some of these crops have faced everything but locust," after being beset by heavy rains, high winds and late snow, besides dryness earlier in the growing season.

However, "time is needed to see how the plant responds", with some damage from cold often not evident until close to harvest.

Of course, some damage is, such as the extent to which the weekend's mixture of gales and snow, in flattening crops, bent stalks, offering some hope of a harvest, or snapped them.

Joe Lardy at CHS Hedging said: "The heavy snow flattened the fragile wheat, but until the snow melts we won't know if the wheat is lodged or if the stems have snapped."

According to preliminary information, Ukraine exported 1053 KMT of wheat in March 2017, or almost as much as in the same month last year (1070 KMT was in March 2016).

In March, the key end market for Ukrainian wheat was Egypt. Ukraine supplied a season-record 347.5 KMT of wheat to Egypt that month. This represented 33% of total exports at the time, reports UkrAgroConsult.

The European Union also revived imports of Ukrainian wheat in March. That month the EU absorbed over 26% of all the supplies – 278 KMT.

In addition, in view of the heightened tension between Russia and Turkey, shipments to the Turkish market became more active in March. 46 KMT of wheat was supplied to Turkey that month – the largest volume since the season’s beginning (a total 73.4 KMT in MY 2016/17).

Ukraine exported a total 14.615 MMT of wheat in the nine months of MY 2016/17, or 13% more than at the same time last season (12.912 MMT went abroad in July-March 2015/16Г).

Was is just another example of Trump brinkmanship, the talk that the US president was to withdraw the country from the Nafta trade agreement with Canada and Mexico – reports that sent jitters through agricultural markets?

Certainly, it now appears that an exit is not on the cards after all.

The White House said that after a "pleasant and productive" call with Mexico's president, Enrique Peña Nieto, and Canada's prime minister, Justin Trudeau, Mr Trump had "agreed not to terminate Nafta at this time".

"It is my privilege to bring Nafta up to date through renegotiation," President Donald Trump said.

"It is an honour to deal with both President Peña Nieto and Prime Minister Trudeau, and I believe that the end result will make all three countries stronger and better.

Le Conseil de gouvernement a adopté, jeudi 27 avril à Rabat, le projet de loi n°19-17 portant modification du droit d'importation applicable au blé tendre et ses dérivés.

State-run grains agency National Food Authority (NFA) is now the forefront of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) discussion on the current food situation in the region, with a specific focus on the region’s rice reserve mechanism.

On behalf of the Philippine government, the NFA is now hosting the 37th meeting of the ASEAN Food Security Reserve Board (AFSRB) being attended by representatives from 10 member-countries.

AFSRB is an organization of 10 ASEAN nations who have committed a specific volume of rice stocks as food security reserve under the ASEAN Emergency Rice Reserve system because rice is a major staple throughout Asia.

The ASEAN rice reserve mechanism was created based on an agreement reached among member-countries in Bali, Indonesia on February 24, 1976.

“The Board meets every year to discuss developments about their respective countries’ food security situation and review the food situation in the ASEAN region in general,” NFA said in a statement.

During their meetings, AFSRB member countries share their experiences, accomplishments, and best practices, anchored on the ASEAN motto “One Vision One Identity One Community.” Last year’s AFSRB meeting was hosted by Myanmar.

Members of the AFSRB are Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

In the aftermath of the international food crisis of 2008, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) endorsed the establishment of the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) for rice. In addition to the 10 AFSRB members, APTERR includes Japan, China, and South Korea.

The Deputy Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Yevgeny Nepoklonov headed the delegation of the Ministry of Agriculture within the negotiations on settlement of the current Russian-Turkish problems in the sphere of agricultural products sales, scheduled for April 26 in Turkey, reported the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Evgeny Gromyko on April 25.
According to him, during the previous meeting of Arkady Dvorkovich and the Turkish official the parties reached certain agreements. On April 26, Y.Nepoklonov and the Director of the Department of international cooperation at the Ministry of Agriculture, Olga Garshyna, traveled to Turkey for more detailed negotiations. The parties propose to realize gradual steps towards each other. But Turkey should do it first, because the country imposed the recent strict steps and measures.
As for the prospects of Russia to contact the World Trade Organization to resolve the situation, the Deputy Minister noted that it is necessary to await for Turkey's reaction first.

u grand étonnement des opérateurs impliqués dans le commerce de blé, l’Algérie a lancé récemment un appel d’offres pour l’achat de seulement 50 mille tonnes de blé. Ces derniers expliquent que, « normalement ce pays cherche des volumes plus grands», (DIA du 12 janvier 2017, Importation de blé : L’Algérie a acheté 475.000 tonnes de blé meunier). Cette  information a été rapportée avant-hier, par le site lazarotto, citant Dow Jones. Pour l’heure, on ne sait pas quand cette quantité sera acheminée vers l’Algérie mais, tout porte à croire que notre pays qui est arrivé à réduire ses importations en céréales, est entrain de prévenir un imminent « petit creux » en cette denrée précisément. Par ailleurs, les conditions climatiques ne sont pas de bon augure pour cette saison. En effet les prévisions du Département de l’agriculture des Etats Unis,  l’USDA, indiquent  qu’un retour à de bonnes conditions de récolte sera essentiel, pour le reste du mois d’avril et début mai. Donc, selon le rapport en question, paru récemment et qui se base sur des statistiques officielles du ministre algérien de l’Agriculture, on prévoit une importation de blé de 8 MT dont 60.000T des Etats Unis. Quant à la production de blé algérien elle serait  de 2.7 MT pour la compagne 2017/2018. Selon le ministère de l’Agriculture, 3.5 millions d’hectares ont été ensemencés au blé et à l’orge pour la nouvelle compagne, dont 45% pour le blé dur, 37% pour l’orge et 15 % pour le blé tendre. Les plantations retardées dans certaines régions, puis les pluies reçues en décembre jusqu’à février ont atténué la sécheresse, l’on s’attend dans ce cas à une récolte moyenne, les conditions à la fin avril et début mai restent critiques.   

Australia’s 2017 wheat crop is forecast to be 24 million tonnes, down from a record 35Mt in 2016, due to depressed cereal prices and an autumn which is forecast to be drier and warmer than average, according to the latest USDA Grain and Feed Annual report

Russian wheat export prices fell last week due to low activity in the market ahead of the new crop arrival this summer and also because of a continuing trade dispute with Turkey, Russian agriculture consultancies said on Monday.
Turkey, traditionally the second largest buyer of Russian wheat after Egypt and the top buyer of its sunflower oil, has effectively put a hold on purchases of these products from Moscow by imposing high import tariffs in March.
Russian market players believe the move was in retaliation for Moscow’s decision not to restore a visa-free regime with Ankara as well as open up its market for tomatoes to Turkish growers.
Russian and Turkish officials met in Moscow last week but did not reach a deal. The two sides reached “a common understanding” that further work was needed to resolve differences over trade, suggesting there will be no quick solution.
Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content for May delivery were $186 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, down $2 from a week earlier, according to IKAR.

May 3 Russia will resume grain exports to Turkey within the next few days after resolving issues with Ankara that had been restricting supplies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Wednesday.

Dvorkovich, speaking after President Vladimir Putin held talks with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan in the Russian resort of Sochi, also said that some Russian restrictions on tomato imports from Turkey would remain in place "in some form" for the next three to five years.

Turkey, traditionally the second largest buyer of Russian wheat after Egypt and the top buyer of its sunflower oil, imposed what Moscow regarded as prohibitively high import tariffs in March. (Reporting by Denis Pinchuk; Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

According to preliminary information, Ukraine exported 1053 KMT of wheat in March 2017, or almost as much as in the same month last year (1070 KMT was in March 2016), reports UkrAgroConsult.

In March the key end market for Ukrainian wheat was Egypt. Ukraine supplied a season-record 347.5 KMT of wheat to Egypt that month. This represented 33% of total exports at the time.

The European Union also revived imports of Ukrainian wheat in March. That month the EU absorbed over 26% of all the supplies – 278 KMT. Thus, in March, EU countries imported 30% of all the Ukrainian wheat purchased since the beginning of 2016/17 (970 KMT).

In addition, in view of the heightened tension between Russia and Turkey, shipments to the Turkish market became more active in March. 46 KMT of wheat was supplied to Turkey that month – the largest volume since the season’s beginning (a total 73.4 KMT in MY 2016/17). As a reminder, 112 KMT of Ukrainian wheat was exported to Turkey in MY 2015/16.

Ukraine exported a total 14.615 MMT of wheat in the nine months of MY 2016/17, or 13% more than at the same time last season.

This paper analyses various options for negotiating agricultural domestic support, drawing on ideas that have been put forward at the WTO. It examines the implications of various approaches for countries’ actual support levels as well as for their maximum permitted ceilings under WTO rules, and looks in particular at those products that are especially important to low-income countries

World grain stocks will fall by less than had been thought next season, the International Grains Council said, nudging higher its harvest forecast, while trimming wheat demand expectation too.

The council, in its second estimate for the world grains balance sheet in 2017-18, raised its estimate for inventories at the close of the season by 7m tonnes to 491m tonnes.

The upgrade, which reduced to 25m tonnes the estimate for the drop in global stocks expected over the season, reflected in part a higher expectation for inventories carried into the period.

However, the IGC flagged that "upward revisions for wheat and corn [output] boost the 2017-18 production projection by 4m tonnes", although adding that "at 2.054bn tonnes, output is still seen falling by 3%"year on year.

Les cours du blé européen étaient en légère hausse mercredi à la mi-journée, tandis que ceux du maïs restaient à l'équilibre, influencés par les aléas climatiques, sécheresse et froid, qui touchent l'Europe de l'Ouest.

Le cabinet Agritel souligne dans une note « la bonne tenue des cours du blé en livraison rapprochée, alors que c'est la stabilité qui domine en nouvelle récolte, malgré le contexte climatique sur l'ouest de l'Europe ».

Par ailleurs, « les semis de maïs en France sont retardés de par le manque de pluie sur une grande partie de l'hexagone et par des températures très basses qui ne permettraient pas de levée optimale des cultures », ajoute Agritel.

Les semis américains de maïs « continuent d'afficher un retard important par rapport à l'année dernière : 17 % des surfaces emblavées actuellement contre 28 % l'année dernière. De plus, de fortes précipitations sont attendues dans les prochains jours, ce qui pourrait stopper momentanément les travaux dans les champs », assure également le cabinet ODA.

Vers 12h45 (10h45 GMT), la tonne de blé gagnait 1,50 euro sur l'échéance de mai, à 166 euros, et 50 centimes d'euro sur celle de septembre, à 167,25 euros, dans un volume de transactions de plus de 23.200 lots.

La tonne de maïs, était elle à l'équilibre sur l'échéance de juin à 173 euros et perdait 0,25 euro sur celle d'août à 178 euros, dans un volume d'échanges d'à peine plus de 200 lots.

The EU will help to develop water provision and agro-food projects in the Mediterranean region under a new Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area (PRIMA). The EU's participation will include a contribution of €220 million from its Framework Programme for research and innovation, the "Horizon 2020" Programme.

The PRIMA initiative, expected to be operational in early 2018, will pool the know-how and financial resources of the EU and participating states. The partnership currently involves eleven EU member states: Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal and Slovenia; and eight non-EU countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey.

The participation to the PRIMA initiative will remain open to any other EU member state, as well as to third countries provided they fulfil the conditions for participating in PRIMA.

Today's decision by the Coreper, the EU's Committee of Permanent Representatives, follows an agreement reached by the Maltese presidency with the European Parliament on 11 April.

Introduced by Turkey restrictions on imports of Russian Pesnica has not prevented her to reach record levels on export

Russian wheat exports to Turkey at the end of March this year increased four times in comparison with February. In spite of prohibitive duties, shipments were a record since August last year.

The reason for this growth is that Russian exporters who have signed contracts for the supply before the ban, rushed to ship wheat.

March export growth in Turkey reflected in the aggregate supplies of wheat in the agricultural year – as of April 19, Russia has put 5.7% more wheat than in the same period last year.

Russian exporters at the end of March this year put Turkey 322 thousand MT of wheat in February deliveries amounted to only 82 thousand tons, follows from the data of the analytical centre "Sovekon".

March wheat supplies to Turkey was a record from August 2016. In March 2014, 2015 and 2016 deliveries amounted to 260 thousand tons to 203 thousand tons and 185 thousand tons, respectively, from the data of the Federal customs service (FCS).

Duty-free import of Russian wheat to Turkey has ceased to operate from March 15 of this year. From this date the fee for Russian wheat suppliers are 130%, which, in fact, is a prohibitive restriction.