MED-Amin network

Severe cold across Europe in the past week is unlikely to have inflicted significant damage on wheat crops that had built up winter sturdiness and were often insulated by snow, analysts and traders said. Although frost impact cannot be fully determined until crops emerge from winter dormancy, the expected absence of major losses in the European Union could keep the
exporting region on track for a larger harvest this year, particularly after a rebound in sowing in top EU grower France.“In France, there shouldn’t be much impact and we’re sticking with a scenario of pretty decent harvest yields,” said Vincent Braak, crop analyst with Strategie Grains.

• Bitter spell brought double-digit negative Celsius lows
• Snow-covered German, Polish crops seen withstanding cold
• French wheat in good shape; early spring barley more at risk
• Excess moisture after rain, snow becoming risk in Britain

Feed markets have taken a breather over February, with grain prices falling from January highs. The majority of feed crops in the EU + UK have emerged from winter relatively unaffected by colder temperatures. Soft wheat production in the EU-27 is forecast 10.4Mt higher next season, at 129.6Mt according to Stratégie Grains, providing some price pressure as we move closer to harvest.

UK ex-farm prices declined over February. Spot UK feed wheat was quoted at £202.10/t, in the week ending 18 February. Spot UK feed barley was quoted at £160.10/t.

The February global supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the USDA, detailed an increase of 2.7Mt to global maize ending stocks, forecast at 286.5Mt. This was due to lower usage in the EU, Japan and South Korea. Last season, global maize ending stocks ...

Large estimates of food losses among farms and intermediaries publicized recently by several international organizations invite the question: Why do economic decision makers live with such losses? The intuitive, economic response would be that the marginal benefits of loss reduction do not exceed the marginal costs. This paper analyzes the possibility that economically significant losses nevertheless might be occurring at the farm and wholesale levels in two cases that have drawn attention in the Near East and North Africa. In Tunisia, concerns exist that farm equipment, especially harvesting equipment, is a major source of wheat losses in a country for which the grain plays an important role in diets and the national import bill. Our analysis finds that smaller wheat farms do have relatively large physical losses, compared to large farms, attributable to the use of older and imperfectly adjusted harvesting equipment. Nevertheless, given the scale of most operations in Tunisia, there is little incentive for farmers to make the specific investments that would significantly reduce losses. In Egypt, local experts have focused on large post-harvest losses of ...

The performance of the EU food system during the early stages of the Covid‐19 pandemic is examined in this article. The preliminary evidence from the early lockdown period in March to June 2020 supports the view that, apart from some experiences of empty supermarket shelves in the very first days of lockdown caused by hoarding by consumers, the EU food system has been remarkably resilient. EU farmers, processors and retailers have maintained food supplies to EU consumers and adjusted to the shift in demand caused by the lockdowns in the food service sector. Farm prices fell after lockdowns were introduced but, with some notable exceptions, such as flowers, the fall in prices has been limited. Consumer food prices, on the contrary, increased but this seems to have been a temporary phenomenon. The response to the pandemic has revealed the limitations in the EU’s crisis response mechanism particularly where market support may be needed. The argument of some EU leaders that local food systems should be supported as a way of increasing the resilience of the food system to future shocks does not have empirical support. Policies in the future should ...

L’économie tunisienne a subi de plein fouet les effets de la crise sanitaire Covid-19 et des mesures indispensables pour la juguler prises par les pouvoirs publics comme la fermeture des frontières et le confinement de la population. L’agriculture a dû faire face aux mêmes difficultés ; toutefois, la courte durée du confinement total et la décision des autorités d’exclure les activités agricoles de certaines restrictions ont réduit les effets de la crise sanitaire sur la disponibilité des produits alimentaires. Cependant, la baisse du pouvoir d’achat des franges les plus vulnérables de la population a réduit leur accès à certains produits de base. En définitive, ce sont les principales filières agricoles tunisiennes d’exportation (dattes, huile d’olive…) qui ont été les plus impactées du fait de la baisse de la demande internationale. Enfin, si la réponse des agriculteurs et des différents acteurs qui encadrent le secteur a permis une certaine résilience, il n’en demeure pas moins que cette conjoncture a servi de ...

To limit the transmission of COVID-19, nationwide lockdown was imposed in France between March, 17th and May 10th, 2020. The lockdown period in France was related to a decrease in nutritional quality of diet on average, which could be partly explained by changes in food choice motives. The lockdown was indeed related to modification of food choice motives, notably with an increase of mood as a food choice motive for 48% of the participants, but also with an increase of health (26%), ethical concern (21%) and natural content (19%) suggesting a growing awareness of the importance of sustainable food choices in some participants.…

The Covid‐19 pandemic has highlighted vulnerabilities in the agri‐food system and wider society. The elderly, in particular, have been overrepresented in intensive care units. The resulting economic crisis and accelerating geopolitical shifts will change the agri‐food system, but it is unclear how this will play out in detail. Two factors are important to consider: will societal priorities change and will the state become more interventionist? We examine these uncertainties via four scenarios from a Dutch perspective. ‘Business as usual’ is realistic if the crises are short and manageable. ‘Government Control’ is more state interventionist, after several decades of neo‐liberalism, with a greater focus on the economy and employment as the agri‐food system is confronted with a long recession. ‘Regional Communities’ is where there is a long period of echo‐pandemics, in which a flourishing community spirit, the attention to nature and a healthy living environment with healthy food are permanent and short supply chains and multifunctional agriculture gain ground. In ‘Green High‐Tech Transformation’, the most extreme scenario, the state and technical innovation take on a much larger role in society and our...

The International Grains Council, NASA Harvest and OECD have co-organised a webinar on the market outlook post COVID-19, under the working title: Different perspectives for the same objectives: Market transparency and food security.

In the context of the COVID-19 crisis, the respective organisations will provide forecasts from a market perspective, advice to policymakers and updates on the use of new technologies, including remote sensing which can provide better information to the public.

The global grains trade system has showcased strong resilience to the potential disruptive effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact and potential adaptation of the trade system to the new reality is bringing fresh uncertainties about supply trends, new consumption patterns and even the wider-ranging impact on the whole agricultural sector.

Using different approaches and tools aimed at enhancing market transparency and food security, the three organisations (IGC, NASA Harvest and OECD) will share their perspectives on agricultural markets, with a particular focus on grains, while examining the complementarity between the different tools used and areas where there is room for improvement.

February 2021 CropWatch Bulletin is based mainly on current remote sensing inputs in addition to detailed and spatially accurate reference data about crops and their management. Focusing on the months of October 2020 to January 2021, chapters cover global, national, and regional level agroclimatic conditions and the condition of crops that were growing during this time. For China, the bulletin presents crop conditions for each of seven key agro-ecological zones, an updated estimate of trade prospects (import/export) of major crops.The focus section reports on the production outlook of major cereal and oil crops countries in the Southern Hemisphere and some tropical and sub-tropical countries, recent disaster events and an update on El Niño or La Niña.

Covid‐19 placed unprecedented stresses on food supply chains. Farms faced bottlenecks for some inputs, notably seasonal labour. Processing was disrupted by labour shortages and shutdowns, especially in meat processing. Air freight, important for fruits and vegetables, was severely disrupted. Demand from restaurants and food service collapsed, while retail food demand surged. Yet supply chains in the developed world have been remarkably resilient to date. Store shelves were replenished as stockpiling behaviour subsided and as supply chain actors expanded operating hours, increased staff, simplified the product range and found alternative suppliers. This rapid recovery was facilitated by policy decisions to reduce border waiting times, to streamline certification procedures and to relax regulations on trade in food. Importantly, policymakers have so far mostly avoided a repeat of the mistakes of the 2007–2008 food price crisis, which was greatly exacerbated by export bans. Overall, the biggest risk to food security is not food availability, but consumers’ loss of income. Safety nets and food assistance are essential to avoid an increase in hunger, especially in developing countries.

The Coronavirus pandemic has revealed the fragility of our food systems, affecting all dimensions of food security and nutrition across the world. It has highlighted how deeply our world is interconnected and the importance of better recognising and understanding the interconnections that are intrinsic to these systems and their key role in pursuit of the SDGs of the 2030 Agenda. There is now, more than ever, a stronger need for a “route change” towards a common action on food systems transformation. Dialogues among all stakeholders to redesign the future of tomorrow’s food systems are needed to trigger collective, multi-stakeholder actions on the ground, at local, regional and global level, towards more sustainable food systems, linking sustainable food production to more healthy and sustainable food consumption. In this context CIHEAM, FAO, and the Union for the Mediterranean Secretariat (UfMS) initiated in 2019, a joint collaborative effort for the establishment of a multi-stakeholder platform on Sustainable Food Systems in the Mediterranean to accelerate the shift towards the Agenda 2030 in the Mediterranean region, with the Mediterranean diet acting as a driver.

Highlights:

The Covid‐19 pandemic will have impacts that will vary across countries and commodity sectors, reflecting factors such as the importance of trade, differences in the functioning of supply chains and the market which producers and farmers supply. Some of these effects will be relatively short‐lived; others will be longer‐lasting. In this context, we set out the channels through which food prices will be affected by the Covid‐19 pandemic, emphasising the short‐ and longer‐term nature of the main effects. We focus on the UK but the insights extend to other (importing) countries. Drawing on a recent econometric model of UK retail food prices that accounts for both domestic and international factors, we show that the key drivers have potentially off‐setting effects, suggesting that the Covid‐19 shock to the food sector is likely to be different from previous shocks, particularly the commodity price crises of 2007–2008 and 2011. In many European countries, the Covid‐19 pandemic may manifest itself as something of an ‘odd crisis ...