A new analysis that began under the Biden administration is released by the C.I.A.’s new director, John Ratcliffe, who wants the agency to get “off the sidelines” in the debate.
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Richard Platt
onto Wearable Tech and the Internet of Things (Iot) January 25, 10:50 PM
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The C.I.A. has said for years that it did not have enough information to conclude whether the Covid pandemic emerged naturally from a wet market in Wuhan, China, or an accidental leak at a research lab there. But the C.I.A. issued a new assessment this week, with analysts saying they now favor the lab theory. There is no new intelligence behind the agency’s shift, officials said. Rather it is based on the same evidence it has been chewing over for months.A new analysis that began under the Biden administration is released by the C.I.A.’s new director, John Ratcliffe, who wants the agency to get “off the sidelines” in the debate. Mr. Ratcliffe, who was the Director of National Intelligence in the 1st Trump administration, argued in an essay for Fox News in 2023 that the CIA did not want to embrace the lab leak to avoid geopolitical problems for the Biden administration. “The real problem is, the only assessment the agency could make — which is that a virus that killed over a million Americans originated in a C.C.P.-(China’s Communist Party) controlled lab whose research included work for the Chinese military — has enormous geopolitical implications that the Biden administration does not want to face head-on,” he said in the piece, which was written with Cliff Sims, a top aide. Senator Tom Cotton, (R) Arkansas and the new chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee has long said he thought the pandemic originated in one of the Wuhan labs and praised the shift in judgment by the agency. “Now the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world,”. Mr. Ratcliffe said on Thursday when he was sworn in, that a look at the origins of Covid was a “Day 1” priority. “I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all dictate that the origins of Covid was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,”. “But the C.I.A. has not made that assessment or at least not made that assessment publicly. So I’m going to focus on that and look at the intelligence and make sure that the public is aware that the agency is going to get off the sidelines.” Senior intelligence officials in the Biden administration defend their process and methodology. They have said that no intelligence was suppressed and insist that politics did not play into their analysis. These officials say that there are powerful logical arguments for both the lab leak and the natural causes theories, but that there simply is no decisive piece of intelligence on either side of the issue. To boost the natural origins theory, intelligence officers would like to find the animal that passed it to a human or find a bat carrying what was the likely ancestor of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Similarly, to seal the lab leak, the intelligence community would like to find evidence that one of the labs in Wuhan was working on a progenitor virus that directly led to the epidemic. Neither piece of evidence has been found. But Mr. Ratcliffe has promised a more aggressive C.I.A., and he may order more actions to penetrate the labs in Wuhan or the Chinese government in a search for information. It will not be an easy secret to steal. The senior ranks of the Chinese government do not know, and do not want to know, American officials have said. So if there is intelligence, it is probably hidden in a place that is hard to get to. Intelligence officials interviewed in recent weeks say such a piece of evidence may exist in a lab in China, at least in theory. But, they said, it is still more likely that the answers to questions surrounding the virus’s origins will come through a scientific breakthrough, not an intelligence revelation. Under the Biden administration, the intelligence community leaned toward the theory that the virus came from the market. But officials readily admitted it was hardly a sure thing. Five agencies, including the National Intelligence Council and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed that natural exposure most likely caused the epidemic. However, they said that they had only low confidence in their assessment. Until now, two agencies, the F.B.I. and the Department of Energy, thought a lab leak was more likely. But their theories are different. The F.B.I. believes the virus came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Energy Department put its bet on another lab, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control. Officials would not say if the C.I.A. believes one lab or the other was the more likely source of the virus.