MED-Amin network

Morocco’s wheat production is forecast to decline from 3.7 million tonnes in 2015-16 to 2.8 million tonnes in 2016-17 and barley output is expected to fall from 1 million tonnes to 900,000 tonnes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a June 18 report. The decline in total production is about 66% lower compared to the previous year due to the severe drought during the entire planting season. 

The report’s estimate in March assumed a somewhat normal rainfall during the spring time (March-April) which was not the case in some key production areas: Chaouia (Settat), Khouribga, Safi, El Jadida. As a result, most of the fields that were planted late (December/January), suffered dramatically from the lack of rain during the spring and were not able to yield any production, and many farmers converted to sunflower instead of soft wheat, the report said.

Turkey’s total wheat production is forecast at 17.5 million tonnes in market year 2016-17. Harvest time is between mid-May and end of June.

Yields and quality are changing by regions and by fields due to irrigation and precipitation differences. Central Anatolia, Cukurova and some parts of southeast Turkey, especially unirrigated fields, were hit by the drought weather condition. It is forecasted that yield losses will be reach 60% in some parts of Konya in Central Anatolia where harvest will finish around mid-July. Increasing production in Thrace is not sufficient to compensate for losses of other regions.

Despite serious drought after sowing during November and December 2015, rainfall in May was significantly higher than the previous year throughout the whole country. Average rainfall in the Thrace region in May was 58.6 millimeters. This amount of rainfall is about 50% more than the long-term average for that region, and 131% more than last year. Due to excessive rain in May and June, weed problems were common in wheat fields. Although the wheat has high protein content, some energy concerns were reported in the Thrace region.

The first harvest in the Mediterranean coast started in the second week of May. According to field reports, the Cukurova region had yields between 15 kilograms per hectare and 50 kilograms per hectare (depending on irrigation) which was less than the long-term average and last year.

In 2016, the general grain harvest in Russia will reach 110 mln tonnes, which will become the record index for the country, announced the Deputy Director of the strategic management department at Rusagrotrans CJSC, Igor Pavensky on July 4.
According to the expert, Rusagrotrans raised its estimations of the index from 108.1 mln tonnes to 110 mln tonnes. If the forecast comes true, in 2016 Russia will produce the record harvest in the post-Soviet period, and exceed the previous maximum index of 2008 (108.2 mln tonnes).
In particular, the harvest volumes of wheat can also reach the historical maximum at 65.3 mln tonnes, exceeding the results of 2008 (63.8 mln tonnes). At the same time, winter wheat areas faced rather low loss rates in the winter, and mainly developed in favorable weather conditions in the spring and summer period, said I.Pavensky.
Also, corn harvest will break another record, and its production volumes will increase to 13.8 mln tonnes, up nearly 4.5% compared with the previous peak reached last year.
Rusagrotrans forecasted the growth of barley production by 0.4 mln tonnes compared with last year - to 17.9 mln tonnes.
All major grain-producing regions of Russia will increase its production indices in the current year, the expert added.
0

Egypt's agricultural quarantine authority settled a months-long dispute on Monday over wheat import specifications that have hampered the country's massive state purchasing programme ahead of an anticipated new buying season.

Egyptian quarantine authorities' earlier refusal to let in wheat infected with even the slightest amount of ergot, a fungus that can lead to hallucinations and irrational behaviour in large quantities but at trace levels is deemed harmless to humans, wreaked havoc in the market for supplying the world's largest wheat buyer.

The quarantine authority said a new ministerial decree would allow it to accept imported wheat shipments containing up to 0.05 percent ergot, finally ending a long-standing zero tolerance policy that has puzzled global trade.

"A ministerial decision was taken and 0.05 percent ergot tolerance will now be endorsed," Ibrahim Imbaby, head of the quarantine authority told Reuters by phone.

Poursuivant ses achats réguliers de blé pour le renforcement et la reconstitution des stocks stratégiques du pays, l’Office algérien interprofessionnel des céréales (OAIC) est sorti une nouvelle fois sur le marché international pour l’acquisition de pas moins 300 000 tonnes de blé, a indiqué, jeudi dernier, l’agence Reuters sur son site.


Selon les traders spécialistes des marchés des céréales, la quantité achetée par l’Algérie serait inférieure aux volumes habituellement demandés en cette période, soit 450 000 à 500 000 tonnes. Commandé pour livraison en septembre, le blé acheté par l’OAIC ne serait pas d’origine française, compte tenu du prix largement compétitif payé par l’Office, à savoir 199 dollars la tonne.

La France est traditionnellement le principal pays fournisseur de l’Algérie en blé, malgré la rude concurrence qui prévaut depuis quelques années sur le marché international des céréales, où des pays de l’Europe de l’Est, comme l’Ukraine, et d’Amérique, comme le Canada et le Brésil, tentent de s’imposer avec leurs produits à des prix compétitifs.

Depuis 2016, on signale une baisse de 48% du blé importé de France, l’Algérie s’étant tournée vers d’autres fournisseurs, notamment l’Allemagne, la Suède, la Pologne et le Royaume-Uni, en raison de la baisse de la qualité du blé français, observée depuis 2005. Cette chute de la qualité est due à la baisse du taux de protéine dans le blé français qui est passé, en 10 ans, de 12,3% à 11,1%, pour s’établir à 11% en 2015.
Depuis quelques années, l’Algérie dépense entre 2 et 2,5 milliards de dollars par an pour l’achat de céréales.

USDA's Risk Management Agency has announced the completion of the final round of crop insurance provisions stemming from the 2014 farm bill.
In an announcement that will be published in the Federal Register on Thursday, RMA's Federal Crop Insurance Corporation will leave its 2014 proposal largely untouched save for some native sod provisions.  The final rule will clarify an exception allowing producers to break up to five acres of native sod without receiving reduced premium subsidies on coverage of native sod acreage.
RMA Administrator Brandon Willis said the updated rules will help ensure American producers “are able to better manage risks so they can continue to farm even after years of severe weather.” According to a USDA release, RMA began implementation of the provisions for the 2015 crop year, but the final rule “enables RMA to continue to offer and expand on the farm bill provisions for the federal crop insurance program.”

 International wheat prices rose in June but remained below last year’s level on account of good supply prospects. Maize prices increased as a result of fast shrinking export supplies in South America and in the Black Sea region. Tight availabilities continued to lend support to rice quotations in most Asian origins, but gains were contained by subdued demand.

 In Africa, cereal prices rose sharply in South Sudan underpinned by high inflation and insecurity, and in Nigeria mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency. In South Africa, domestic prices of yellow maize increased further and were nearly 50 percent higher than in June last year as a result of tight domestic availabilities and currency weakness.

 In South America, prices of yellow maize increased and were well above their year-earlier levels in most countries of the subregion, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, underpinned by a strong pace of exports and a 2016 reduced output, respectively.

Le cabinet de conseil Agritel estime la production française de blé tendre en 2016 à 37,26 millions de tonnes au 25 juin, soit une baisse de 9,2 % par rapport à celle de l’an dernier.

Agritel a annoncé ce mardi 5 juillet 2016 dans un communiqué son estimation de production de blé tendre français pour 2016. Au 25 juin, le cabinet estimait la production française à 37,26 millions de tonnes (Mt), une estimation permise à la suite d’un « crop-tour » (tour de plaine) réalisé par ses équipes sur 13 départements représentant près de 40 % de la production française.

Comment évolueront les surfaces agricoles dans les prochaines décennies ? Sous l’influence de quels facteurs ? Comment s’exprimeront les tensions entre sécurité alimentaire et atténuation du changement climatique ? Élaborée par des scientifiques du Cirad et de l’Inra avec l’appui d’experts internationaux, l’étude prospective Agrimonde − Terra tente de répondre à ces questions grâce à cinq scénarios d’évolution des usages des terres et de la sécurité alimentaire.
Les résultats de l’étude prospective Agrimonde − Terra, présentés le 24 juin à Paris, mettent en relief les principaux leviers d’action, en particulier la nécessité d’une gouvernance mondiale des usages des terres intégrant non seulement les secteurs agricole et alimentaire, mais aussi les autres secteurs économiques. Celle-ci devra être menée avec l’ensemble des acteurs concernés, et aboutir à des régimes alimentaires plus diversifiés, de nouvelles règles pour le commerce international, des systèmes de culture et d’élevage mieux intégrés et un accès sécurisé à la terre pour des structures agricoles variées.

The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) became the eleventh member of the AMIS Secretariat. The AMIS Steering Committee unanimously approved GEOGLAM’s request for full membership at its meeting on Wednesday, 22 June, which formalizes and further strengthens an already close collaboration between both initiatives.

GEOGLAM was launched alongside AMIS at the G20 Agriculture Ministers meeting in 2011 as part of the G20 Action Plan on Food Price Volatility. Since then, the initiative has helped to reinforce the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production by using Earth Observation data. For AMIS, GEOGLAM developed the Crop Monitor, which provides regular updates of crop growing conditions in the main producing regions of the AMIS crops, synthesized in the AMIS Market Monitor.

Going forward, both initiatives seek to extend and strengthen their partnership, including at the country level. Against this background, national focal points of AMIS and GEOGLAM have been invited to explore areas for closer collaboration such as enhancing the use of satellite observations within current systems for area and yield estimation and integrating earth observations into early warning market indicators.

Las cosechadoras arrancaron ya en Andalucía y los primeros datos apuntan a que esta campaña finalmente estará entre las tres mejores de los últimos 16 años pero no será récord. "En el sur, sobre todo en el trigo, hay zonas muy irregulares que se creían que estaban mejor, debido a enfermedades como el mosquito, lo que variará a la baja, algunas de las estimaciones que se realizaron", comenta Juan Carlos Bermejo, portavoz de la Sectorial de Cultivos herbáceos de Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias de España. Más noticias en la revista gratuita elEconomista Agro

Para este año, las previsiones de Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias es que se alcancen 23.451.000 toneladas de cereales superando la cosecha del año 2008, que fue muy buena, (22.764.166) pero que no llegó a las cifras de las dos más productivas de los últimos 15 años. La del año 2000, donde se alcanzaron los 23.700.000 toneladas y la que ostenta hasta ahora el récord, la 2013 con un total de 24.109.430 toneladas.

Egypt appointed a new head on Sunday for its state wheat-importing body - one of the most influential positions in the global wheat market - as it remains mired in a dispute over the quality of grain it will buy.

Minister of Supply Khaled Hanafi told Reuters Ahmed Youssef has been formally appointed as the new vice chairman of the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), having said earlier on Sunday that he was the top candidate for the job.

Reuters exclusively reported on Tuesday that the world's largest wheat importer was changing the head of GASC, its main state grain buyer.

The appointment comes as GASC gets ready for a new wheat importing season with no resolution to a long-standing dispute over the amount of ergot, a common grain fungus, it will allow in wheat purchased from abroad.

Ahmed Youssef used to head the central administration of purchasing at GASC before Sunday's appointment.

French wheat condition is steadily declining, in the wake of heavy rains over the past month.

Yields are being threatened at the same time as Algeria, the biggest importer of French wheat, cuts yields.

But prices in Paris remain under pressure from heavy world stocks and production.

Condition drop

FranceAgriMer, the French farm office, reported that the proportion of wheat rated good or excellent was down 6 points week on week, at 65%.

This follows a 4 point drop in quality in the previous week's report.

Winter barley condition also fell, with the French crop rated 62% good or excellent, a 5 point drop from the previous week.

Algerian demand

The decline in French production comes as demand from Algeria, the main export destination for French wheat, is likely to increase.

Algeria imposes strict protein controls on wheat imports, as most wheat is used in bread and cous cous, which require higher grade grain.

The forecast world wheat surplus just keeps getting bigger and bigger, as the International Grains Council once again lifted ideas of global production in 2016-17.

The IGC's forecast for total wheat production was lifted by 7m tonnes from a month ago, to 729m tonnes.

The global wheat market is now expected to be 9m tonnes in surplus, compared to the 3m tonnes deficit that was being forecast just three months ago.

Prospects for barley production were also raised, helping to push the forecast for total grain stocks to a new record high.

Improving prospects

"Although still placed lower year on year, prospects for wheat production continue to improve," the IGC said.

But the council warned that "the wet finish to the growing season in several countries will likely have a negative impact on average quality," the IGC said.

There is expected to be an increase in the use of wheat for livestock feed, the council said.

"Amid heavy supplies, attractively-priced wheat is capturing some feed demand from alternatives, including maize, although use of the latter is still seen at its highest ever," said the IGC.

But even with heavier use of wheat in animal feed, the world wheat balance is now expected to be comfortably in surplus, with world production outstripping demand by 3m tonnes.