MED-Amin network

Le Conseil spécialisé pour la filière céréalière s'est réuni le 10 mai 2017. A l'ordre du jour, nouvelles prévisions pour la commercialisation des céréales françaises récoltées en 2016, focus sur le marché du blé dur, état d'avancement et conditions de culture des céréales de la récolte 2017, enjeux des pays arabes du Golfe en termes de débouchés pour les céréales françaises, projets agricoles et agroalimentaires d'avenir dans le secteur des céréales.
Campagne commerciale française 2016/17 : fenêtres de tir potentielles pour le blé français en fin de campagne vers l’Algérie et l’Afrique subsaharienne

Ce mois ci, FranceAgriMer a principalement relevé les prévisions d'exportations de blé tendre à destination des pays tiers pour la campagne 2016/17, à 5,2 Mt (+ 0,2 Mt par rapport aux prévisions d'avril).

En effet, les objectifs de ventes vers l’Algérie et l’Afrique subsaharienne sont revus à la hausse, dans un contexte de prix compétitifs pour l’origine française et de tarissement de la concurrence en fin de campagne... 

Focus sur le marché du blé dur  

Avec une production de 1,6 Mt de blé dur en 2016, la France se classe à la huitième place des producteurs mondiaux, loin derrière le Canada, l’Italie et la Turquie. Pour 2017, le CIC prévoit une production mondiale de blé dur de 39 Mt, en légère baisse par rapport à 2016, avec des surfaces en recul. En France, les semis de blé dur sont attendus en repli de 2,5 % à 377 000 hectares, après une nette progression entre 2015 et 2016.

World barley stocks will end next season at their lowest in more than 30 years, as the grain continues to fall out of favour with farmers, whose sowings of the grain are to come close a record low.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its first forecasts for 2017-18, signalled a change in course for grain supplies overall, seeing a reversal in inventories, after a five-year stockbuilding process.

But the dynamic was seen as particularly marked for barley, in which world inventories were seen closing next season at just under 17.5m tonnes.

Besides representing a 29% fall year on year, that would be lowest figure since 1983-84.

Corn and wheat futures recovered from early losses as a much-watched US report forecast an end to the build in world grain supplies, although soybeans struggled to follow suit, on upgrades to world stocks expectations.

Corn futures for July gained 2.0% in Chicago at one point, after the US Department of Agriculture, in its first estimates for world crop balance sheets in 2017-18.

July wheat futures recovered from negative territory in the run up to the data to stand up 1.4% on the day.

The gains reflected USDA expectations, released in its Wasde crop report, that world grain stocks will fall back next season, after a five-year spell in which they have soared more than 50% to record highs spurred by a run of bumper harvests.

Corn futures for July closed at $3.73 ¾ a bushel, a gain of 1.8%, while wheat futures for July ended up 0.8% at $4.31 ¾ a bushel.

Speakers at the Arab Forum on Sustainable Development highlighted the need of closer cooperation among the Arab countries and regional and intemational organizations to ensure food security in the Arab region.

This goal is one of the top priorities set forth in the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development, Shatha Al-Gendi, an ILO official in charge of the implementation of the agenda, said in a speech to the gathering on Thursday. The Arab countries face numerous challenges in their quest for sustainable development; these require closer collaboration to realize economic integration, food security and eradication of poverty, she said.[...]

On her part, Amira Gornass, head of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) and Permanent Representative of the Sudan to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), urging revising the food production systems in the Arab countries.

The Arab region requires common policy in the field of food production, particularly the agricultural sector in order to curb the growing poverty rate and end the food shortage, she said in a similar speech.

Meanwhile, Abbas Mohammad Awadh, Secretary-General of Sudan's National Council of Strategic Planning, said the agricultural development is the main pathway for food security which requires integrating strategies.

He added that the Arab region has the prerequisites for attaining the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by world leaders in September 2015 at an historic UN Summit.

The forum, themed "combating poverty and enhancing prosperity in Arab countries," is organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) in collaboration with the Arab League; it opened on Wednesday and will come to a close on Friday

The renegotiation of the Nafta treaty proposed this week, as President Donald Trump backed away from a threat to withdrawn the US from the agreement, could bring "fairer treatment" for the country's wheat farmers, officials said.

The US Department of Agriculture's Ottawa bureau, said that US growers were eyeing "fairer grain grading rules" as part of a reworking of Nafta, the free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico which the three countries agreed this week to renegotiate.

Current rules do not allow imported wheat, even if from a seed registered for growing in Canada, to be graded by the official Canadian Grain Commission, hampering its use for anything but livestock feed.

"US wheat delivered to a Canadian grain elevator is sold as either feed grade (lowest grade) or according to a specification at any price agreed to by the buyers and seller," the bureau said.

The United Nations flagged ideas of "ample" world grain supplies in 2017-18, as it raised its estimate for wheat stocks to a record high – although it was unclear that the data included any allowance for losses to last weekend's US storms.

The UN's food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, said that global food prices fell by 1.8% in April to an eight-month low, reflecting largely a slump in sugar values, but also softer grain markets.

"Strong export competition and expectations that global cereal availabilities will remain ample in the 2017-18 season continued to weigh on international prices of most cereals," the FAO said.

Wheat prices "in particular" were affected by the pressure, according to the agency, even as it raised by 1.1m tonnes its estimate for global stocks at the close of 2017-18, meaning an increase of 8.0m tonnes in inventories over the season.

"Global wheat stocks are set to expand by 3.3% to a new high of 247.6m tonnes."

As of May 2, early spring crops were seeded on the area of 9.87 Mln ha (11.05 Mln ha in 2016) or 18.7% of the intended area, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Early spring grains were seeded on an area of 5.33 Mln ha (6.63 Mln ha in 2016) or 17.8% of the intended area. Planting is 17% behind last year pace. This includes spring wheat planted on an area of 768.2 Th ha (5.7% of forecast), spring barley on 2.54 Mln ha (33%) and corn for grain on 1.25 Mln ha (40.9%).

More information on crop conditions and progress of planting campaign in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain & Oil" by UkrAgroConsult.

Cargill Inc expects international grain markets to remain oversupplied for a long time due to bountiful harvests and a rise in storage, the head of the global commodity trader said on Friday.

Bumper crops have flooded many markets, dragging on prices for grains and hitting profits at agribusiness giants including Cargill, Bunge Ltd, Archer Daniels Midland and Louis Dreyfus Co.

"There's been several strong seasons of growth and almost near perfect weather conditions both in North America and South America," Cargill Chief Executive Officer David MacLennan told a media briefing in Seoul.

"There are a plenty of supplies in storage, and Brazilian farmers are holding on to their products in the hopes of better prices ... but I don't see the clearing of excess supply or much volatility to up commodity and grain prices in the near future."

Global corn, wheat and soybean inventories have risen for four straight years in the longest stretch of increases since the late 1990s, according to the U.S. government data.

French soft wheat exports will not fall quite as dramatically as had been thought this season, FranceAgrimer said, raising its estimate for shipments outside the European Union.

The official crop bureau said that French soft wheat exports in 2016-17 would hit 11.08m tonnes – down 47% year on year, and the lowest in decades, but representing an upgrade of 230,000 tonnes from last month's estimate.

The revision reflected in the main increased expectations for shipments outside the EU, the forecast for which was lifted by 200,000 tonnes to 5.20m tonnes.

While a drop of 60% year on year, that figure is well above the 4.7m tonnes that FranceAgrimer had initially pegged in, in September, after rains slashed the volume and quality of the country's 2016 wheat harvest.

France is the EU's top producer and exporter of soft wheat.

Tunisian wheat production will recover even further than expected this year, the country's farm minister said, reducing the potential for exports, which US officials have forecast hitting a 10-year high.

The farm ministry for the North African country, a notable wheat importer, said that its grains harvest would hit 1.78m tonnes this year, a jump of 500,000 tonnes year on year.

This total includes 1.22m tonnes of wheat – all but 120,000 tonnes representing durum rather than soft wheat – as well as 500,000 tonnes of barley.

"The grain's harvest will be good this season," said Samir Bettaib, the Tunisian agriculture minister.

Les cours des céréales évoluaient peu mercredi à mi-journée et dans des volumes plus bas que jamais, à quelques heures du rapport mensuel du ministère américain de l'Agriculture (USDA).

Peu avant 14H30 (12H30 GMT) sur Euronext, la tonne de blé était inchangée sur l'échéance de septembre à 169,25 euros, tout comme sur l'échéance de décembre à 172,50 euros, dans un volume d'échanges extrêmement modeste de 4.100 lots à peine. Les opérateurs s'attendent à une révision à la baisse des stocks mondiaux de fin de campagne, tant en blé qu'en maïs, autour, respectivement, de 246 et 210 millions de tonnes, selon le cabinet Agritel. Une tendance assez conforme à ce que prévoit pour le blé français, l'organisme public FranceAgriMer, qui a tenu mercredi son conseil spécialisé sur la filière céréalière.

"Le stock final est abaissé de 200.000 tonnes, à 2,4 millions de tonnes, un peu en-deça de la moyenne quinquennale", a déclaré lors d'une conférence de presse, Olivia Le Lamer, adjointe au chef de l'unité "grains et sucre" de FranceAgriMer. Selon elle, il est cependant encore possible d'avoir des "surprises" d'ici la fin de la campagne, notamment sur les volumes qui pourraient rester en ferme. Sur les huit premiers mois de l'année, 4,1 millions de tonnes de blé tendre ont été expédiées des ports français vers les pays tiers (hors UE), un chiffre sans surprise lourdement en retrait par rapport à l'an dernier à même époque, en raison des récoltes catastrophiques enregistrées par les paysans français.

Corn sowings in France, the European Union's top producer, will fall to their lowest in at least 25 years, as growers, deterred by two years of poor yields, opt for other spring crops – with sugar beet area to soar.

France's agriculture ministry, in its first forecast for domestic corn seedings this year, pegged them at 1.45m hectares – a drop of 2.4% year on year, and the weakest on data going back to 1993-94.

The drop in the figure, which comprises 1.39m hectares of corn for grain and 63,000 tonnes for seed, comes as a dry spring in France is raising alarm bells among growers.

"Some farmers may be reluctant to plant corn because of the lack of soil moisture. Irrigation may be restricted in some areas," the ministry said.

It highlighted that "in the past two years, [corn] yield has been low due to drought", with the result coming in at 84.1 tonnes per hectare last year, and 82.5 tonnes per hectare in 2015 – compared with a 104 tonnes-per-hectare result in 2013.

As of May 4, Turkey canceled the recent restrictions on the imports of Russian wheat for its further processing within the customs territory, declared the Turkish Minister of Economy, Nihat Zeybekcion on May 4, according to Bloomberg.
According to the announcement, Turkey is the biggest flour exporter. Turkish companies prefer purchasing raw materials for processing within the customs territory and shipping of finished goods to other countries without paying of customs duties.
As a reminder, on March 15 Turkey excluded Russia from the list of countries that have the right for duty-free supplying of certain types of plant products. Therefore, the import duties for Russian wheat and corn reached 130% of the customs value, rice - 45%, sunflower meal - 13.5%, pulses - 9.7%, sunflower oil - 36%.

The US is poised for a thaw, after the weekend storms some estimate have cost more than 2.5m tonnes in wheat production – and which is placing extra stress on results of a high-profile crop tour.

Weather service MDA said that in the central US "temperatures will moderate over the course of this week", after weekend storms which brought rains of up to 6 inches to parts of the Corn Belt, and snows reported at 20 inches in parts of the central Plains.

The warm-up will "limit additional damage" to crops hurt by the weekend tempests, which also brought high winds which MDA said "led to some lodging of the wheat crop" – ie, the snapping of wheat stalks.

The improved conditions and snow melt – albeit likely to be accompanied by fresh rains in many areas - will also allow a better assessment of the extent of crop damage, in particular in the Plains hard red winter wheat belt, but with some losses expected in Midwest soft red winter wheat too.

Les cours du blé reculaient légèrement au dessous de la barre des 170 euros la tonne mercredi en début d'après-midi, après leur poussée du début de semaine due aux intempéries qui ont touché les cultures aux Etats-Unis.

Peu avant 14h30 (12h30 GMT), la tonne de blé sur Euronext reculait de 50 centimes d'euros à 169 euros la tonne sur le contrat Mai, et perdait 1,50 euro à 170,25 euros la tonne sur le contrat Septembre. Le volume d'échanges s'élève à près de 14.000 lots.

La forte hausse du marché américain lundi 1er mai, jour de fermeture des marchés européens, a désorganisé le marché qui a du mal à analyser l'impact réel de la vague de froid au Kansas, et la séance de mercredi ressemble plus à une séance de consolidation après l'agitation, soulignent les opérateurs.

Le maïs, lui, s'inscrit dans le sillage du blé et régresse aussi très légèrement. La tonne de maïs perdait ainsi à la même heure 25 centimes d'euros sur juin, à 174 euros la tonne, et 50 centimes d'euros sur août à 179 euros la tonne, dans un volume d'échanges de près de 250 lots.