Join Free

Follow, research and publish the best content

Scooped by Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics

August 31, 9:52 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 28, 11:15 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh addressed an audience of central bankers at Jackson Hole over the weekend and spelt out the current monetary environment. He noted that persistent inflation, resulting from the Iran conflict and ongoing trade wars, mean that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to counter that.

Just the one problem: the level of US debt, and the cost of borrowing. If only there was someone he could blame for any of this?

No comment yet.

Economy

International Economics: IB Economics

A collection of articles relating to the 'international' elements of Economics and relating to IB, Pre-U and A-Level Economics.

Curated by Graham Watson

Your new post is loading...

Scooped by Graham Watson

Today, 3:06 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - September 1, 2:15 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Today's Guardian editorial notes how global bond markets, and the interconnected nature of financial markets are affecting Japanese policymaking with the US Treasury Secretary keen to see Japan reduce its government spending, because of fears that the US would have to prop up the yen.

It's seen as an indicator of the prospective dangers of significant increases in UK spending, and a reminder of the constraints on policymaking.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

September 1, 3:06 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 31, 12:49 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Andrew Bailey's address to the central bankers at Jackson Hole centred on the risks posed to financial stability by AI, with the possibility of an AI-driven correction of global markets precipitating a global recession.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 31, 9:58 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 30, 8:05 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

A really nice consideration of the effects of the ongoing US-Canada trade war, putting it in a wider context and also noting which states/sectors of industry are going to be most heavily affected.

It really is a nonsense, when ego trumps logic in policymaking.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 31, 9:52 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 28, 11:15 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Just the one problem: the level of US debt, and the cost of borrowing. If only there was someone he could blame for any of this?

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 26, 4:45 AM

Scoop.it!

The Guardian view on Trump’s economic threats: bullies can overplay their hand | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - August 25, 1:27 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Today's Guardian editorial makes a straightforward point, and if you follow it to its logical conclusion it also applies a sorry end. Which would be a shame. Little in the way of theory, but some interesting reflections on policymaking - not least in that the President is making ordinary Americans poorer and diminishing the country's global standing.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 26, 4:14 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 25, 12:17 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Canada retaliates. Who gains?

In a word, no-one. How have we come to this?

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 25, 4:54 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 24, 2:55 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Seconds out! a 50% US tariff has been imposed on Canadian cars, trucks and steel.

In the present climate, you have to ask "for how long?"

So much for certainty.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 12:18 PM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 24, 6:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

More on the conduct of fiscal policy in the US and its implications for bond markets, and the position of the dollar as the global reserve currency. For me the staggering little detail is the observation that "This year interest payments will absorb 13.5% of all federal spending, more than defense and up from 5.2% in 2021."

Is this a sustainable position? Long-term? No.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 12:02 PM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 24, 6:39 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Yawn! "The greatest" etc. etc.

You could be forgiven for thinking that no-one in the White House has ever read any history. You'd probably be right.

The US is promising to escalate sanctions against Iran and those that trade with the Iranian economy. But to call it the "greatest financial offensive ever" is indicative of the sort of ignorant rhetoric employed by the Trump administration.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 5:00 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 23, 3:32 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The US-Canada trade war has appeared to descend into chaos - with both sides blaming the other for the collapse of trade talks, and the introduction of new tariffs.

To cite the article: "Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, estimated that 40% of small Canadian exporters will be directly hit by the US tariffs, and that nearly one-third expect their revenues will drop by 50% or more as a result." Equally, US consumers will face higher prices and less choice and states that border Canada will suffer the most.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 2:37 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.youtube.com - August 21, 4:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This is an important clip, well worth your time, looking at the changing fortunes of the German economy. Germany is Europe's largest economy is in crisis, not least in energy intensive sectors. This excellent Bloomberg piece looks at how this situation has come about, the problems that this has created and the potential solutions to the ongoing systemic crisis in Germany.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 22, 1:55 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 22, 12:13 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Hold onto your hats - US-Canada trade talks have broken down, meaning that the US is going to introduce tariffs on Canadian exports at midnight tonight.

The goods covered - "including wine, dairy, cement, clothing and hockey equipment" - will be subject to a 50% tariff and Canadian President Mark Carney has promised to match them.

There are no gainers from this sort of nonsense.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 21, 2:39 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 20, 7:15 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

This BBC piece looks at the state of the US economy, starting with the escalating size of the US national debt and the implications of this for policymaking, both in the US and elsewhere.

The conclusion is that there's no need to panic yet; however, one truly global implication could be higher interest rates for everyone. If US interest rates are high, then it's likely to push everyone else's rates up too.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

Today, 2:58 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.youtube.com - September 1, 4:16 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

A really good explainer of what's currently happening in developed economy's bond markets. Borrowing costs are rising across the developed world. It is a good introduction to a topic that is sometimes seen as complex to post-16 Economics students.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

September 1, 3:01 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 31, 6:07 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

IT seems as though Asian trade patterns are changing with Japan moving away from trading with China and increasingly turning towards India. The latter has appeal because of the size of the market as the Japanese market shrinks.

Simultaneously, the Japanese are trying to reduce their dependence upon China, although the integrated nature of supply chains means they will always have a relatively close relationship.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 31, 9:54 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 28, 7:54 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Not much economic theory here - just one or two pairs of eyebrows being raised as the US takes control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil.

It makes you wonder what the incursion into Venezuela was all about.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 26, 8:12 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 26, 1:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

You can sense the pleasure that Kenneth Rogoff has got from writing this piece about the level of US debt and the US Treasury's reaction to this. The debt has reached nearly $40 trillion, the budget deficit is around 6% of GDP, and debt interest repayments are around 13% of government spending, none of which is sustainable.

However, the claim that AI-induced growth is going to ensure that the fiscal position becomes sustainable is, frankly, laughable. Whenever a government puts forward something that conveniently solves their problems without them seemingly doing anything, that's cause for concern, and Rogoff rightly suggests that long-term borrowing costs are likely to remain high and any meddling in bond markets is only likely to reduce the government's credibility.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 26, 4:42 AM

Scoop.it!

Trump faces backlash from Republicans over plan to lift tariffs on beef imports | Trump administration | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - August 25, 4:15 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away. It's frankly staggering how little grasp of basic economics or consistency informs current US policymaking, but the President has relaxed tariffs on imported beef to help tackle the cost of living crisis. without seemingly thinking about the implications for US beef farmers.

This comes at a time when American beef cattle herds are at their lowest for 75 years, and against the advice of a number of Republican senators.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 26, 3:51 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.youtube.com - August 25, 11:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This excellent Sky News clip looks at the ongoing US-Canada trade war, looking its significance for the global economy as well as a very localised series of exchanges looking at how many times a single car part is likely to cross the US-Canadian border between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario. It highlights the extent to which there are inflationary consequences of a US tariff on Canadian cars and Canadian car parts,

It then goes on to look at the wider implications of this for both economies, not least in terms of the trade in metals.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 25, 4:42 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 24, 8:40 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Here we go - tit-for-tat, tariff begets tariff etc...

Canada exports around 70% of its goods to the US, so how can it retaliate against the latest round of Trump tariffs?

Well, as the article notes: "Canada is the top customer for 26 US states, including Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And it is in the top three for 45 of the 50 American states" and there are certain key sectors that it can hit hard. "Canada supplies the vast majority of US natural gas and electricity imports and about 60% of crude oil imports." Many Canadians have also boycotted going to the US.

Additionally, Canada is a major supplier of critical minerals, and a Canadian boycott of US wine and spirits has also cost US manufacturers.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 12:14 PM

Scoop.it!

Jumpy bond markets make it clear: Trump risks driving US into debt crisis | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - August 23, 6:53 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

I missed this yesterday but is President Trump on the point of driving the US into a debt crisis? I don't think it's imminent by any means but it can't be ruled out. US intervention to prop up the Japanese yen was undertaken in Euros, with the US Treasury reluctant to be seen selling dollars and its permission to use "the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility" suggests that the US is concerned about the reputation of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

This and the explosion of debt in the US don't bode well for the longer-term, argues Heather Stewart. And she might be right. I suspect that the end of the current President's term of office might help but at some point the US is going to have to address its systemic problems, which is always easier said than done.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 11:50 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 24, 5:47 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

A little bit of local colour highlighting the implications of new tariffs for US-Canadian business, with small Canadian firms look like they are going to lose out as a result.

It shows how tariffs really don't do anything to help anyone, except perhaps the President whose ego seems to benefit. For everyone else, it's higher prices, lower sales, less choice and lower economic welfare.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 24, 4:57 AM

Scoop.it!

New Fed chair faces critical test at Jackson Hole as inflation fears mount | US economy | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - August 24, 1:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

One of those articles where there's not much theory but it's worth the effort nonetheless. It highlights the annual central bankers' conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and the need for Kevin Warsh to get the optics right.

So far he's somewhat dispelled the notion that he's simply Trump's man, and maintained a degree of independence from the President, something that the Guardian hopes that he continues to do in his keynote speech. central banks

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 22, 2:02 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.bbc.co.uk - August 21, 12:45 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

US borrowing costs are rising again after the Treasury Department intervened earlier in the week to increase liquidity in the market, driving down bond yields from 5.34% to 5.18%. However, since then, they've climbed back to 5.27%.

This reflects concerns about US government debt reaching $40 trillion, as well as high levels of borrowing elsewhere and uncertainty about the ongoing Iran conflict. Of course, the Trump administration are looking to shift the blame on the Biden administration, but the reality is that both have consistently run budget deficits.

No comment yet.

Scooped by Graham Watson

August 21, 6:23 AM

Scoop.it!

From www.theguardian.com - August 20, 10:21 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

An ongoing drought in Central America has affected the Panama Canal's freight capacity, reducing the number of vessels crossing the waterway each day. The canal handles 5% of global maritime trade and 40% of US container traffic.

No comment yet.

International Economics: IB Economics

The Guardian view on the global bond shock: Andy Burnham should take note | Editorial | The Guardian

AI could cause global economic downturn, Andrew Bailey warns G20

The US-Canada trade war in 5 charts

Fed has 'work to do' if price rises don't ease for Americans, Warsh says

The Guardian view on Trump’s economic threats: bullies can overplay their hand | Editorial | The Guardian

Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on wide range of US goods | Canada | The Guardian

Trump announces new 50% tariff on Canadian cars, trucks and steel | Trump tariffs | The Guardian

The treasury bond mess: is this the demise of the US as a safe haven? | US economy | The Guardian

Iran faces 'greatest financial offensive ever', says US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

‘No more!!!’: Trump lashes out after US-Canada talks devolve into trade war | Canada | The Guardian

What's Wrong With Germany?

Canada says it will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

US debt has hit $40tn – Will that be a wake-up call?

Why borrowing costs are rising worldwide | Ed Conway explains

Uniqlo, Muji: Japan Inc is betting big on India as China risks deepen

Trump hails 'historic' deal for US to control 65bn barrels of Venezuela's oil

Is the Trump Treasury panicking over the level of US debt? | Kenneth Rogoff | The Guardian

Trump faces backlash from Republicans over plan to lift tariffs on beef imports | Trump administration | The Guardian

Can Canada survive Donald Trump's 50% tariff hammer on cars and steel?

How Canada could hit back to hurt the US economy - and Trump

Jumpy bond markets make it clear: Trump risks driving US into debt crisis | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

'Half my business will be gone' - firms in Canada and US fear trade war

New Fed chair faces critical test at Jackson Hole as inflation fears mount | US economy | The Guardian

US borrowing costs rise as attempts to ease rates prove short-lived

Panama canal to reduce shipping as El Niño strikes vital route | Panama canal | The Guardian