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Scoop.it!
If you think the Supreme Court ruling heralds a return to pre-Trump business as usual - think again. 
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Scoop.it!
Trump has attacked judges and weakened global safeguards. Someone needs to stand up to the US and stop the erosion of democracy
Graham Watson's insight:
I'll leave this here - an interesting piece on global corruption and its winder implications for the global economy. Empirically, corruption slows economic growth, and is likely to entrench inequality. However, for me, the standout line is that where once the US was seen as the global guarantor of anti-corruption standards, under the current President it has casually sacrificed that role, and in its absence there's a need for new development-focused norms to emerge.
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During winter in Britain fresh produce is sent by cargo ship from the West African nation every week.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm not sure where to put this, so I've opted for here, if only to give an example of global supply chains. In this case, this lengthy BBC clip looks at where Britain gets its food from, highlighting two Northern Senegalese farms which use water diverted from the Senegal River to water their fields.
There are lots of starting points here - the spread of global agriculture, the costs and benefits of such farming for Senegal, the nature of food miles and the negative externalities associated with shipping.
Anyway you look at it, it's a remarkable example of what globalisation has meant for the global economy.
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Reclaiming Labour’s internationalist heart could also stop disillusioned voters drifting towards Lib Dems and Greens
Graham Watson's insight:
Five years ago, and in line with the UN target, the UK gave 0.7% of its GDP in aid; that figure is now down to 0.3%. However, Heather Stewart argues that the UK's chairmanship of G20 gives the current government the opportunity to reset its stance on aid - or more technically official development assistance, and take the lead on debt relief too.
In doing so, she argues it might return the Labour Party to its internationalist roots and attract back into the fold some of the waverers who have left for the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. The shame is that, given the current state of the public finances, above all else, I can't see this happening.
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The dream of greasy overalls is driven by nostalgia and doesn’t justify policies that harm US consumers
Graham Watson's insight:
This is an interesting article about the state of the US economy, with Eduardo Porter arguing that the US obsession with the preservation of manufacturing jobs is counter-productive. Manufacturing now accounts for only 8% of US jobs and the author argues that it would be considered nonsensical if the same were said as regards agriculture, which accounts for 2% of US jobs.
However, I'll put this in some sort of context. The same newspaper carried a Larry Elliott piece earlier in the week suggesting the exact opposite: that the UK: that a fixation on the services sector and disregard for manufacturing output and employment was counter-productive.
You can't have both, can you? I suspect that neither case is ideal...
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Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.
Graham Watson's insight:
Don't say I don't spoil you - here's the link to the original Liberty Street blog carrying the New York Fed's take on the tariff burden borne by US firms.
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Consumers and businesses are not yet taking the hint despite six interest rate cuts
Graham Watson's insight:
Heather Stewart seeks the silver lining in the latest growth cloud, with an optimistic take on the prospects for 2026. She argues that forthcoming interest rate cuts and Budget measures designed to lower prices are going to have a positive impact on consumer and business confidence and that growth is going to pick up. However, that said, growth forecasts for the year range from 0.9% (Ernst & Young) to 1.4%.
The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 13, 5:22 AM
Heather Stewart seeks the silver lining in the latest growth cloud, with an optimistic take on the prospects for 2026. She argues that forthcoming interest rate cuts and Budget measures designed to lower prices are going to have a positive impact on consumer and business confidence and that growth is going to pick up. However, that said, growth forecasts for the year range from 0.9% (Ernst & Young) to 1.4%.
The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.
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The departure of Gail Slater has raised questions about the White House's approach to policing big mergers and monopolies.
Graham Watson's insight:
Excuse me if I'm wrong but the President has sought to remove the Governor and a board member of the Federal Reserve, he has sacked the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and now the head of the antitrust division at the Department of Justice (DOJ) has resigned.
I'm just saying, but isn't this authoritarianism in plain sight, and equally, isn't it likely to mean a reduction in the quality of economic policy?
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Editorial: Defending European strategic interests must be a priority to level the economic playing field in an increasingly volatile world
Graham Watson's insight:
Today's Guardian editorial highlights the prevailing environment for international trade and notes that in the light of the protectionism being implemented by the US and China, the EU needs to think about moving away from a purely free trade position and starting to encourage its consumers to "buy European" if the regional economic grouping wants to counter them.
Ideologically, this seems to be counter-intuitive, but the rules of the game have changed and if the playing field's no longer level, there's surely a case for altering the way you play the game.
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The US carmaker's tariff costs were higher than expected because of a change to the Trump administration's tariff relief program.
Graham Watson's insight:
A rare moment where someone speaks out of turn, or the reality of tariffs? You decide.
However, because of a change to a tariff relief program, presumably at least part-funded by tariff revenues, Ford have claimed that US tariffs on the import of car parts cost it an extra $900m last year. And one suspects that the tariffs also cost consumers in the final analysis too.
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Countries’ drop in scores in annual table comes amid ‘worrying trend’ of backsliding in established democracies
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest Corruptions Perceptions Index, published by Transparency International, reveal that Denmark is seen to be the least corrupt and South Sudan the most corrupt. And strange to relate, the position of the UK and the US is worsening.
Perish the thought that the COVID VIP lane, and the Trump Presidency have anything to do with this sort of thing but the UK has fallen from 7th in the rankings to 20th in 2025. The US is 29th and the fear is that this erosion of trust is becoming an established feature of both.
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A wartime boom in Russia has given way to sluggish growth, tax hikes and squeezed public services. Will it affect the conflict in Ukraine?
Graham Watson's insight:
Another article suggesting that the Russian economy is struggling four years into the war with Ukraine: growth is slowing, the government has hiked taxes and public services are being cut, illustrating the opportunity cost of increased defence spending.
Longer-term, the biggest problem facing Russia might be its falling population. However, the demographic problems pale into insignificance relative to the poor quality institutions; unfortunately, the biggest problem Russia faces is dismantling President Putin's kleptocracy and improving the quality and transparency of its institutions, and until the President dies that simply isn't happening.
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Exclusive: David O’Sullivan says war-based economy may be nearing point of becoming ‘unsustainable’
Graham Watson's insight:
It's a great title, but the EU's Special Envoy for Sanctions, David O'Sullivan thinks that 2026 is the year when sanctions really will start to bite and adversely affect the performance of the Russian economy.
Perhaps the key indicator is the fact that "Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of the economy, halved in January, to the lowest level since July 2020, according to the finance ministry in Moscow." That said, people have been talking about the effect of sanctions since the Ukraine war began.
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The ruling opens the door to potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff refunds.
Graham Watson's insight:
Ooops!
Oh dear, President Trump's tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court, by a 6-3 majority and there's confusion about what's going to happen next, with firms potentially now owed hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff refunds.
Yet more uncertainty! And markets have reacted positively to this development signalling what they think about whether or not tariffs are good for the US economy.
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Overall the economy grew 2.2% last year, holding up despite pressures from changes to tariff and immigration policy.
Graham Watson's insight:
The inconsistent growth performance of the US continues with growth slowing to 1.4% in the last three months of 2025, after growing by 4.4% in the previous three month period.
It shouldn't be a surprise - such is the uncertainty associated with the current President, and the lack of consistency in policymaking, that anything other than spasmodic growth would be a surprise. Overall, the US grew by 2.2% in 2025, which is decent growth in relation to the rest of the G7 nations.
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JD Vance is seeking to create a ‘trading bloc’ as shortages and climate crises mean a kaleidoscope of rare earths are increasingly jealously guarded
Graham Watson's insight:
The creation of strategic reserve of critical minerals is becoming a central part of the modern world, and reflects some interesting trends.
In the first place, there's been a surge in the demand for electricity, a combination of the rise of AI and climate change increasing the demand for air conditioning, and not only do the devices themselves, but also the electricity networks need these resources. However, the creation of reserves in other nations also increases the competition for resources and climate change might also threaten supplies of these essential resources.
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The US president wants American energy firms to start extracting the crude but they are reluctant.
Graham Watson's insight:
Merely posing the question seems superfluous: the obvious answer is no, but this article looks in detail at why that's the case and in doing so, provides insight into why doing business in Venezuela isn't going to be straightforward.
In the first place, the existing oil industry infrastructure is poorly maintained and there are even doubts about the size of Venezuelan reserves, which are often said to be the largest in the world, although that, it seems, is highly debatable.
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Prices rose by 2.4% in the year to January, the latest official figures show, the slowest pace since May.
Graham Watson's insight:
At least, US economic news that everyone can enjoy: inflation is down to 2.4%, the slowest pace since the previous May. The President, of course, greeted this in his usual understated way: "Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday...that 'we right now have the hottest country anywhere in the world'."
It creates another interesting monetary policy decision, with rates likely to soften in the months ahead, but probably not quick enough for the President, although some are worried that the full effect of Trump's tariffs haven't yet been fully passed on to consumers.
Scoop.it!
Last year, collective import tariff rates on various goods coming into the US more than tripled.
Graham Watson's insight:
Oh dear, the President won't like the narrative here, even if it's been self-evident to all post-16 Economics students since his introduction of tariffs. However, the latest research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has reached some rather robust conclusions: "in 2025, the average tariff rate on imported goods rose to 13% from just 2.6% at the start of the year" and "that 90% of the cost of increased tariffs... was paid for by US companies.
And, as if that wasn't enough in the way of fake news, "the Tax Foundation said the 2025 increases cost the average household $1,000 (£734.30). In 2026, tariffs will cost the same household $1,300" offsetting the affects of any Trumpian tax cuts in his Big Beautiful Bill.
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As hiring rates and job openings drop, some worry a tough job market could be here to stay.
Graham Watson's insight:
As the article states: "Layoffs have remained limited, apart from some high-profile cuts at firms such as Amazon and UPS and the unemployment rate has held steady at around 4.3%. Meanwhile, the wider economy continues to grow, expanding at a robust annual pace of 4.4% in the most recent figures." So where are the jobs?
There are a variety of observations, some economically valid about increased automation and productivity, others Aquinas' like in their sophistry. And then there's Occam's razor. Remind me about the President's attitude to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Scoop.it!
World Bank says children born today could earn 51% more over lifetime if their country’s human capital improved
Graham Watson's insight:
This World Bank research has tried to quantify the opportunity cost of a lack of access to education and healthcare for children in low- and middle-income countries. It reckons - and who am I to quibble with the methodology, other than a cynical and increasingly old Economics teacher - that children born in this environment could earn 51% more over the lifetimes if they had the same access to these services as the best performing nations at these levels of income.
It highlights the factors that limit human capital and these policies that have helped overcome these issues, as diverse nations like Jamaica, Kenya, Krgyzstan and Vietnam have done.
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Employers added a greater than expected 130,000 jobs in January, according to the latest figures.
Graham Watson's insight:
Is the US economy slowing, I wondered earlier.
Well, not if you believe labour market data, which has reported a surprising uptick in the number of jobs added in January, 130,000. The cynics among you might note that President Trump did replace the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in September last year though...I'll allow you to draw your own conclusions.
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Retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December as consumers pulled back, raising questions about a broader economic slowdown.
Graham Watson's insight:
A surprise from the US, where December's data has clearly conspired to present the President in an unflattering light, with December's retail sales showing a slowing of consumer spending, and this implies slower growth.
The data has been delayed by the recent government shutdown and points at a slowing of growth, although some suggest that it's a blip. We shall see.
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From
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The White House agreed to carve out exemptions for US-produced cotton from Bangladesh.
Graham Watson's insight:
If the data in this article is correct, it strikes me as remarkable that the US is renegotiating every 1% cut in tariffs with an economy like Bangladesh like this. However, it seems that the South Asian country has negotiated some tariff exemptions, promised to use more US made textiles in its garments and seen the tariff on textile exports to the US cut from 20% to 19%. The equivalent tariff on Indian exports is 18%.
Are we going to see them negotiated down percentage point by percentage point?
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From
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The steps to bolster Canada's auto industry come as Trump's tariffs strain the sector and threaten jobs.
Graham Watson's insight:
The to-ing and fro-ing of international trade, in this case between the US and Canada continues with Mark Carney taking steps to bolster the Canadian car industry in the wake of President Trump's 25% tariff on Canadian cars and car parts, given that Canada exports 90% of its cars to the US. It's worth noting that Detroit is only a short tunnel away from Canada, and the town of Windsor is effectively part of the Greater Detroit area and the car supply chain for manufacturers based there.
There's also a move to re-establish some of the previous environmental standards as well as encourage inward investment in the sector.
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More on today's Supreme Court decision, with Dharshini David noting that unpicking Trump's tariffs isn't going to be straightforward because today's ruling doesn't cover all of them, and the fact that many supply chains have already adapted to them.
The overriding theme is that the President's incoherent and chaotic approach to policymaking is creating global uncertainty and that benefits no-one.