International Economics: IB Economics
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International Economics: IB Economics
A collection of articles relating to the 'international' elements of Economics and relating to IB, Pre-U and A-Level Economics.
Curated by Graham Watson
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World Economic Outlook Update, January 2023

Global growth is slowing in 2023 but should rebound in 2024. China reopening, a strong US labor market with cooling inflation, and a mild winter in Europe have all helped avoid the worst.

Graham Watson's insight:

On the day that the IMF publishes its updated growth forecasts for individual economies as well as the global economy, they also publish this. A snapshot of global economic health: highlighting slowing growth in 2023 but recovery into 2024 as well as some sense of potential headwinds - health concerns, Ukraine and the implications of higher interest rates, given high levels of global debt. 

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US economic growth stronger than expected

US economic growth stronger than expected | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% at the end of 2022, but home sales and construction tumbled.
Graham Watson's insight:

Interesting data from the US: economic growth is higher than expected, and yet the construction sector has seen a sharp decline in activity. 

 

Is this a leading indicator and the US heading for recession - or is the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier than most feeding through into the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. Again, like the US, though, declining rates of growth are not translating into higher levels of unemployment, suggesting that central banks might have to rethink how they model labour markets.

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EU ‘could end reliance on China for electric car batteries by 2030’ | Technology sector | The Guardian

EU ‘could end reliance on China for electric car batteries by 2030’ | Technology sector | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
Prediction predicated on investment that keeps pace with Joe Biden’s $369bn green subsidy spree
Graham Watson's insight:

In the light of the prospect of an EU-US trade war, some analysts believe that a co-ordinated EU response to subsidise the sector could have positive unintended consequences, in that it might end reliance on China for electric car batteries. 

 

This poses interesting questions about whether or not this represents good economics or not because it seems to imply that trade patterns are moving away from the exploitation of comparative advantage and that would be inefficient. 

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Covid: Thailand tourism up but still below pre-pandemic level

Covid: Thailand tourism up but still below pre-pandemic level | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
The holiday destination is set to start charging overseas visitors $9.20 each from the start of June.
Graham Watson's insight:

Good news for Thailand in that tourism revenues are recovering, although still below pre-pandemic levels, because this represents an injection into the circular flow of income and it will trigger a multiplier effect.

 

However, equally, the government have imposed a tourist tax - 300 baht ($9.20; £7.40) per tourist - and hope that this will raise tax revenues too. It's an interesting idea and set at a level that is unlikely to deter many tourists from coming, which is important because the Thais are hoping to attract 80m tourists annually by 2027.

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What we learned at Davos: signs of hope emerge from the pessimism | Larry Elliott Economics editor | The Guardian

What we learned at Davos: signs of hope emerge from the pessimism | Larry Elliott Economics editor | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
Prospects for artificial intelligence and green transition fuel sense that the only way is up for the global economy
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott summarises the main themes that have appeared to emerge from Davos this year, and far from being a prophet of doom, he's keen to stress cautious optimism that AI and the prospect of a green transition have the capacity to significantly improve living standards whilst contributing to tackling climate change. 

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The climate crisis threatens economic stability – why are central bankers divided? | Howard Davies | The Guardian

The climate crisis threatens economic stability – why are central bankers divided? | Howard Davies | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
Jerome Powell and Mervyn King reject taking on climate policy, while Mark Carney and Christine Lagarde say action is vital
Graham Watson's insight:

It's difficult to place this article - however, I'll put it here because of its international implications. It poses a pretty important question about the extent to which central banks should take an active position on climate change. 

 

The debate has divided central bankers, some argue that it imperils central bank independence, others that the banks have a remit to guarantee economic stability and that to ignore it is a dereliction of duty. The future direction travel in this area is, thus, unclear, and yet to be determined. 

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Davos elites need to wake up to ‘megathreats’ the world is facing | Nouriel Roubini | The Guardian

Davos elites need to wake up to ‘megathreats’ the world is facing | Nouriel Roubini | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
IMF and others have warned we face the most acute economic and financial challenges in decades
Graham Watson's insight:

Nouriel Roubini has never knowingly been overly optimistic; at least he's consistent here, arguing that the super-elite at Davos seem to be blind to the extent of the megathreats facing the global economy. 

 

He thinks that we are "facing not only the worst of the 1970s (repeated negative aggregate supply shocks), but also the worst of the 2007-08 period (dangerously high debt ratios) and the worst of the 1930s, with the rollback of globalisation and the threats that this poses to international stability. 

 

Is he right? You might argue that he only has to be right once...

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What is the US debt ceiling and what happens if it isn’t raised? | US economy | The Guardian

What is the US debt ceiling and what happens if it isn’t raised? | US economy | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
The US treasury secretary warned ‘extraordinary measures’ will have to be put in place to prevent defaulting – here’s what that means for the government
Graham Watson's insight:

A what happens next of the US debt ceiling from the Guardian; it's more straightforward than I could ever be. 

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Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs as spending slows

Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs as spending slows | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
Chief executive Satya Nadella says cuts will cost $1.2bn (£972bn) as tech firms scale back staff numbers.
Graham Watson's insight:

The state of the global economy might be inferred from the fact that Microsoft have announced that they are too shed 10,000 jobs in the coming year. However, the scale of the job cuts is sizeable, and the cost to the company not insignificant at $1.2bn.

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Sri Lanka government delays paying certain state sector employees' salaries - BBC News

 

The Sri Lankan cabinet has decided to delay paying the salaries of certain state sector employees by up to a week due to the worsening financial situation. Last week, the government said the economic crisis would be worse than expected, with all ministries ordered to make a five per cent reduction in spending.

The economic turmoil in Sri Lanka sparked mass protests last year, which resulted in the former president fleeing the country in July.

Graham Watson's insight:

Sri Lanka's turmoil continues with the government choosing to defer the salaries of certain state sector employees (presumably not their own) due to the financial situation, and all ministries - of which there are plenty - being ordered to make 5% spending cuts. 

 

None of this bodes well for development, as lower spending on infrastructure and public goods is an opportunity cost of higher debt interest repayments. 

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