 Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scoop.it!
From
www
India Inc spent $18bn on global buyouts in 2025 and the deal value could cross $15bn in the first half of 2026. 
No comment yet.
Sign up to comment
Scoop.it!
‘China has already eaten much of German industry’s lunch and is preparing to start on dinner,’ thinktank says
Graham Watson's insight:
I've already kind of 'scooped' this - yesterday - but this gives it a country-specific flavour, with the impact of a China shock on Germany being considered.
It highlights how the continued rise of Chinese is threatening Germany's industrial heart - the family-owned, small - to medium-sized firms known as the Mittelstand. It's particularly threatening because of the speed and size of the shock: as the article notes "China’s surplus with Germany...doubled between 2024 and 2025 from $12bn (£9bn) to $25bn" and the fact that it seems to be centrally-supported "Beijing was running a policy project, named '10,000 little giants', that was specifically targeting Germany’s Mittelstand"
Scoop.it!
From
www
The two sides will also work towards an extension to the tariffs truce they agreed in October, China's Commerce Ministry said.
Graham Watson's insight:
It's all about the optics, darling.
Remarkable how nothing was announced at the time, but now it appears that there were trade deals struck at last week's China-US summit in Beijing. Or this just a case of managing the news agenda.
I'm going to wait for detail...
Scoop.it!
From
www
Millions of people in Benin are gaining a legal identity through the World Bank supported WURI program and the national “C’est Moi” card, unlocking access to education, financial services, and essential opportunities, especially for women and children.
Graham Watson's insight:
You should be aware of the importance of property rights in fostering development, but what about those rights when applied to individuals in the form of digital ID? This World Bank clip looks at a scheme designed to roll out digital ID in Benin, showing how it benefits children, in ensuring access to education, gives entrepreneurs access to credit and financial independence to women. All of these things have a role to play in generating growth, economic development and improving standards of living.
Scoop.it!
State oil company fast-tracks previously undisclosed project, which is expected to double export capacity
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the UAE is going to respond to the Iran conflict by increasing its capacity to export oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. It's building a second pipeline that's going to transport oil to the port of Fujairah, and is hopeful of completing it by 2027.
Scoop.it!
Many European motoring manufacturers are in retreat with plants to off–load – while China’s industry is on the march
Graham Watson's insight:
This is a fascinating article showing how dynamic markets are: it's quite remarkable that Chinese car sales are now nearing 10% of the Western European market, as last year saw a doubling of sales.
However, faced with increasing competition, and less demand for their vehicles, established manufacturers are faced with the problem of over-capacity. So, should they sell some of this to their upstart rivals? Or would this effectively be splitting their own throats.
The irony is that some Chinese manufacturers have suggested that these plants are old-fashioned; they're looking for many of their own plants. My take? We're about to see significant consolidation in the sector, and some of the established, traditional car manufacturers are going to disappear.
Scoop.it!
With US inflation at a three-year high, US president insisted he’s not focused on economic hardship sparked by the conflict
Graham Watson's insight:
This must be reassuring to all Americans - the President doesn't think about their financial situation. That said, I fear that the quote realistically should simply be the first three words.
Of course, this all comes against a background of rising prices and falling consumer confidence.
Scoop.it!
From
www
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global supplies of energy and petrochemicals.
Graham Watson's insight:
One of the more unusual unintended consequences of the ongoing Iran conflict has been the decision of Japanese snack giant, Calbee, to switch to black-and-white packaging for 14 of its products.
This is because disruption to the global oil market has adverse consequences for supplies of naptha, a by-product of oil refining used in inks and plastics. Since the start of the war, the price of naptha has almost doubled, and the region as a whole was dependent upon the Middle East for around 40% of its supplies of the product.
Scoop.it!
From
www
David Malpass also said that Beijing's claim to be a developing nation is no longer credible.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm not sure what point David Malpass, former Head of the World Bank, is trying to achieve here, by suggesting that China should stop stockpiling food and fertiliser in response to the Iran conflict. Yes, there's a general point about resource allocation here, but the Chinese government is only responsible to its citizens, so isn't he also implying that other nations, such as the United States, should have similar-sized strategic reserves and that in doing do so, they've acted irresponsibly?
Scoop.it!
From
www
The first US presidential visit to China in almost 10 years will test a fragile tariff truce.
Graham Watson's insight:
Not much theory but a reminder of the current state of play regarding US-China relations - and the ongoing trade war. It's the sort of primer that the President ought to read - assuming that he can read - just to bring himself up to speed. I'm not sure that he'll be aware of the current level of tariffs on China and the to-ing and fro-ing that has occurred.
Scoop.it!
Norway’s energy minister says country has a ‘responsibility’ to address shortfalls caused by wars in Ukraine and Middle East
Graham Watson's insight:
The Norwegian government have announced that they are going to reopen three mothballed gas fields to make up for shortfalls from the Ukraine and Iran conflicts, and better guarantee Europe's energy security.
The trouble is that this conflicts with the advice of the country's environment agency, and again highlights a potential trade-off between economic growth and the environment.
Scoop.it!
From
www
The solid figures came despite rising gas prices and economic uncertainty sparked by the Iran war.
Graham Watson's insight:
Curiouser and curiouser, the latest US labour market data - or should it be labor market? - is stronger than expected with the US adding 115,000 jobs last month, despite the uncertainty caused by the Iran war.
Scoop.it!
CEO of Danish shipping group says increased costs due to higher fuel bills passed on to customers
Graham Watson's insight:
This is the sort of pronouncement from someone with a vested interest that should set alarm bells ringing among global policymakers: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will have "limited impact" on cargo flows because a more pressing problem is the rise in fuel costs.
It looks like global inflation might be baked in for longer than President Trump initially assumed. You might almost think that by now he's wondering whether the absence of a coherent plan just might have been a mistake.
|
Scoop.it!
MEPs had twice frozen ratification process in protest at Trump’s threats to increase tariffs and take control of Greenland
Graham Watson's insight:
And, the EU has also ratified its trade deal with the US, which it had previously frozen in protest at President Trump's tariffs and his attempts to expand the US sphere of influence in Greenland.
This should satisfy President Trump's demand that the EU ratify the deal by 4 July.
Scoop.it!
From
www
The waiver reflects increasing supply concerns over certain fuels due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the sanctions on Russia, in the wake of the Ukraine war are being relaxed to increase the supply of fuel and keep petrol prices down. Whilst there's criticism of this, it's already been done by the US, and should, at the margin, affect energy and fuel prices.
Scoop.it!
Rising volume of components imported from China prompts warning of cannibalisation of European industries
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian article warns that we might be on the brink of a second "China shock", equivalent to the effects of China joining the global trading system after its accession to the WTO in 2001.
This time though, the effects aren't going to be as noticeable because instead of the EU importing finished goods, the growing Chinese trade surplus is the result of China starting to dominate the supply of components, and hollowing out European industry as a result, according to Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing.
This fear is compounded by the fact that, as yet, the EU hasn't demonstrated that the EU is unable to offer the same level of state support to its own industries and thus its dependence upon China is increasing.
Scoop.it!
The president’s ultimate goal is to push the Fed – among other independent US institutions – to bend to his will
Graham Watson's insight:
In the week that the Chair of the Federal Reserve moves from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh, Eduardo Potter argues that the US central bank is in danger of losing its independence. He cites the other examples where the current President has subjugated previously independent institutions to his own will but speculates that whilst he might try to do this to the Federal Reserve, it will be harder because the Federal Open Markets Committee, like the Monetary Policy Committee in the UK, has 12 members who all vote on interest rates, and currently only two of them are Trump appointees.
For what it's worth, I'm looking forward to an economically illiterate President calling for interest rate cuts as inflation rises.
Scoop.it!
From
www
Rare earths are the backbone of modern technology, and China has cornered the global market for the commodity. The country produces and processes more than 80% of the world’s supply. As it uses that dominance as geopolitical leverage, can other countries break its grip?
Graham Watson's insight:
This clip doesn't contain much economic theory - apart perhaps from looking at protectionism, and the US-China trade war - and possibly a look at monopoly power. However, it's essential viewing if you want to know about the economic significance of rare earth metals in the modern economy.
Scoop.it!
From
www
Modi has urged Indians to save dollars as war and oil shocks strain the rupee and economy further this year.
Graham Watson's insight:
This article looks at the impact of the Iran war on the Indian economy, with most analysts of the view that the effects have yet to be felt in any meaningful sense.
However, given that India imports 90% of its oil and half of its natural gas, the concern is that India is going to see its forex reserve dwindle in the months ahead; consequently, Narendra Modi has asked Indians to travel less and buy less gold, both of which require dollars. That also explains why the government has increased import duties on gold and silver to 15%.
Furthermore, the Indian budget deficit is forecast to be higher than the expected 4.3%, and when this is coupled with a current account deficit of $70bn, and the depreciation of the rupee, some are concerned that despite 6-6.5% growth, Indian consumers are soon going to be experiencing harsher times - and much higher inflation.
Scoop.it!
From
www
mweThe key measure of US inflation rises its highest level since May 2023 as consumers feel the impact of the Iran war.
Graham Watson's insight:
Dear me! I'd feel some sympathy for President Trump if I thought he had even the first inkling about cost-push inflation, but he clearly doesn't. Apparently, the key to securing a deal appears to be inflicting economic pain on yourself with no obvious end to the conflict in sight and the regime change you wanted seemingly as far away as it was before the conflict, if not even further.
But for the average American consumer, April's 3.8% inflation figure reflects higher prices of fuel. How ironic it would be if the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, had to raise interest rates in his first month in charge. That really would show how intellectually bankrupt the President is.
Scoop.it!
From
www
A surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war is rippling through global supply chains for common consumer goods, making materials like chemicals and plastics more expensive and pushing up manufacturing and transportation costs.
Graham Watson's insight:
This Reuters clip is ostensibly American but it has wider implications - it's a simple primer showing how central oil is to the global economy - there are some nice examples of derived demand, including food and plastic packaging. It's worth a quick look.
Scoop.it!
Instead of obsessing over rules that have ceased to matter, we must consider giving Beijing a dose of its own medicine, says Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Graham Watson's insight:
Again, not much in the way of theory but a perspective on the global economic order and the implications of the rise of China, for the rest of the world. Mark Leonard argues that China has adapted best to the realities of the new world order and is favourably placed with regard to ownership of raw materials, trade policy and so forth.
He calls the current state, the age of un-order. It's an interesting conceit.
Scoop.it!
The economic warnings are bleak, but full extent of shortages are still not felt for many European countries
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian article looks at the ramifications of the Iran war and wonders whether the world's economies are fully prepared for them. The suggestion is that there's a disconnect between the current state of affairs and what's coming down the track.
The suggestion is that the supply-side shock is going to see significant rises in inflation as a result of disruption to the global supply chain, and that we've done seen anything yet.
Scoop.it!
Owner IAG expects to recover 60% of additional fuel bill caused by Iran war through ‘revenue and cost management’
Graham Watson's insight:
The owner of British Airways is facing a £1.7bn fuel hit cost but is looking to pass this on to consumers by raising fares. However, I note that the article finishes with the following paragraph: "The company reported a pre-tax profit of €422m during the three months to the end of March, up 77% on the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 1.9% to €7.2bn"
However, have a look at the company's annual report - how much does it have in cash, cash equivalent and interest-bearing deposits? Over €10billion.
Really?
Scoop.it!
From
www
Trump's deadline to the European Union came as a trade court ruled his global tariff policy violated US law.
Graham Watson's insight:
Yet more uncertainty for EU-US trade, with the threat of the US ratcheting up tariffs if the EU doesn't drop its tariffs on US goods, and, simultaneously, a US court ruling that the President's 10% tariff is illegal.
You cannot script it. It's almost as if the President doesn't have a coherent policy, economically, domestically and in terms of foreign policy. or perhaps it's all "The Art of the Deal"?
|
I 'scoop' this, after a Bank Holiday break, to highlight a number of things - but mainly the fact that international investment patterns are changing. Whereas 20 years ago, it was mainly HICs investing in low- or middle-income countries that is changing.
In this case it's Indian firms investing in a range of developed countries, and sectors, from health to vehicles to AI, and demonstrating the how the centre of economic gravity has shifted.