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Critics accuse leading firms of sabotaging climate action but say data increasingly being used to hold them to account 
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US treasury secretary says at WEF in Davos that countries and companies should pause and ‘let things play out’
Graham Watson's insight:
This is a fascinating article because it emphasises the fact that if the US-EUs dispute turns bloody, financial markets could suffer, both from retaliatory tariffs and if the EU dumps its holdings of US government debt.
As for the Treasury Secretary asking for patience to see how things "play out", well. America First. A clear example of self-interest. And if he wants stability, and greater certainty, then he might start closer to home.
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Economic inequality is at the heart of all humanity’s major problems, but the wealthiest refuse to confront a system that benefits them, says economist and historian Ingrid Robeyns
Graham Watson's insight:
Here, one economist argues that for all its apparent interests in confronting global risks, the elite that meet at Davos conveniently ignore one of the biggest: rising inequality.
She argues that there's no debate about the nature of global capitalism and the fact that it appears to be disenfranchising an ever greater number of the world's citizens in trying to protect the wealth of the super-rich.
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Europe is weighing up how to counter the US president's move against some of America's closest allies.
Graham Watson's insight:
Not much theory, just more uncertainty, and that's not good for global trade, or economic welfare.
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Governments opting for oligarchy while brutally repressing protests over austerity and lack of jobs, charity report says
Graham Watson's insight:
The annual Oxfam survey of global wealth highlights the extent to which there is inequality, noting that we now have over 3,000 global billionaires who have benefitted from an 81% increase in their collective wealth since 2020.
To put it another way, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Bill Gates have more wealth than the entire population of Egypt, a country with over 100 million people. That surely can't be right, can it?
As the article highlights a major concern is how these people use their wealth to secure political influence: "research estimated that billionaires were 4,000 times more likely than an ordinary person to hold political office, while more than half of the world’s media companies and nine of the top 10 social media platforms are owned by billionaires."
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Trump tariff threats are bad, but the uncertainty they instil is much worse | Tariffs | The Guardian
The spectre of rising inflation, slowing global trade and jittery markets has re-emerged as US economic policy divorces itself from any logic
Graham Watson's insight:
Heather Stewart on the ongoing effects of Trumponomics. She argues that tariffs are bad enough - reducing economic efficiency and consumer choice. However, the worst effect of all is probably the continued uncertainty that discourages economic activity, and is acting as a drag on global economic growth.
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Mark Carney holds talks with Xi Jinping on rare Beijing trip as Canada seeks to diversify trade links away from US
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm not sure that President Trump necessarily thought this would be a consequence of his trade policy. However, the last 9 words might be unnecessary.
However, in the face of a more 'aggressive' trade policy from the United States, Canada has pivoted towards China with Mark Carney visiting Beijing and has signed a preliminary trade deal, allowing for the preferential import of nearly 50,000 Chinese EVs. The deal is hoping to encourage the export of clean energy technology from China to Canada among other things.
That said, as the article notes, the US still accounts for 75% of Canadian exports and even though China is the second most significant export market, it presently accounts for only 4% of Chinese exports.
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For 30 years, Japan’s prices were largely at a standstill. Now, a weak yen is changing everything. Here’s how consumers and businesses are coping with rising costs, and what it means for the nation’s economic future.
Graham Watson's insight:
This Bloomberg Original clip looks at the implications of the recent weakening of the yen - most notably on inflation - because it has meant higher import prices and this has fed through to domestic prices.
After 30 years of deflation, prices of energy, transport and housing have started to increase - something that one generation of Japanese citizens have never known before. This clip traces the history behind this, and some of the data, not least about inflation and interest rates, here is remarkable.
However, it's going to require a real adjustment - inflation has risen while real wages are falling - so there's a need to recalibrate the Japanese economy - not least because Japan has such a significant level of national debt, which means that the use of monetary policy to curb inflation has a significant opportunity cost.
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Donald Trump's stand-off with the US central bank has recalled episodes in other countries - which ended badly for the economy.
Graham Watson's insight:
A broader perspective on the ongoing squabble between President Trump and the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is offered in this BBC article.
Rather than directly pointing the finger and suggesting it's Presidential behaviour consistent with that of a petty dictator, it draws parallels between the US today and Argentina 15 years ago when the head of the central bank resisted the demands of President Kirchner to hand over reserves to pay off the national debt.
And the result in Argentina? "Pressure on central bankers was most likely to emerge in countries with nationalist or populist leaders and was typically followed by higher inflation" according to Professor Binder.
Watch this space.
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It may well be safer, easier and cheaper for US companies to procure whatever oil the US economy needs at home
Graham Watson's insight:
This article by Eduardo Porter looks at the reasons why President Trump's invasion of Venezuela is so wrong-headed. If he's of the view that US oil companies are going to flock to invest in Venezuelan oil, he's probably mistaken.
Not only has the US become more energy efficient, but the heavy nature of Venezuelan crude makes it difficult to refine. And if you factor in the potential impact of an increase in the supply of oil and the impact of this on oil prices, then US frackers aren't going to be particularly pleased.
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Extreme weather events and biodiversity loss identified as the biggest global threats over a longer timeframe
Graham Watson's insight:
Staff at the World Economic Forum justifying the 'big bucks' by asserting that the greatest risks to the global economy in the next couple of years are "economic conflicts between great powers" and some of the consequences of climate change.
I fear that I'd need their crystal ball to be that perceptive.
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Results for 2025 risk further unsettling economies about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, and their own over-reliance on Chinese products
Graham Watson's insight:
Remind me of the purpose of President Trump's tariffs? Even with them, China has registered a record trade surplus.
However, it's another reminder that trade surpluses aren't necessarily a good thing: there are concerns that China's adoption of a variety of unsustainable trade practices have caused this, creating corresponding trade deficits elsewhere; the Chinese should also be concerned about the unbalanced nature of their growth - a lack of domestic demand is going to bite them at some point.
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Analysts warn that White House pressure on US central bank to cut interest rates could put economy in danger
Graham Watson's insight:
Richard Partington on the risks of the ongoing attempts of the President to make the Federal Reserve bend to his will and adopt a more accommodative monetary stance.
He notes that the worst case scenario is for inflation to spiral out of control, and foreign lenders to hold less US government debt, increasing the government's borrowing costs. It's scarcely credible in the 21st century that a US President is conducting policy in such a thuggish, and pig-headed, fashion.
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Mark Ruffalo, Brian Eno and Abigail Disney sign letter timed for WEF in Davos saying wealthy are buying political influence
Graham Watson's insight:
The annual call of some of the world's super-rich for higher taxes comes to Davos, with an open letter from the Patriotic Millionaires. It calls for higher levels of taxation to reduce extreme inequality and promote social cohesion. So, is it realism or virtue-signalling?
As the article notes, inequality is widening to the extent that the executive director of Oxfam International, Amitabh Behar noted that "the richest 1% now own three times more than the world’s total public wealth combined", which is staggering.
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In Ecuador, innovation is reshaping daily life—above ground in classrooms and below ground in metro tunnels. Through the Korea–World Bank Partnership Facility (KWPF), Korean expertise and World Bank financing are coming together to strengthen education, improve mobility, and open new pathways to opportunity.
Graham Watson's insight:
This World Bank clip highlights how the World Bank's partnership with South Korea is innovating and enhancing Ecuador's infrastructure, increasing labour mobility and reducing commuting times in Quito and enhancing education via the use of VR at a local university.
In broadening opportunities, such moves are enhancing economic development in the South American country.
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Europe could use powerful but untested law amid pressure over Greenland – but it could also lose out from a trade war
Graham Watson's insight:
As the prospect of a US-EU trade war, the Guardian contemplates the latter's potential response to President Trump's tariffs if the EU fails to support his desire to gain control of Greenland.
Called the 'big bazooka' it's a raft of trade measures - excluding US companies from EU markets, imposing export controls and ending intellectual property protection within the EU. The problem is that even though it hits back at the US, it will also adversely affect EU consumers, with conservative estimates suggesting that an all-out trade war like this could reduce global output by 0.3%.
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From
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Trade tensions and a reversal in the AI boom are among the main risks to global economic growth, the IMF says.
Graham Watson's insight:
One for the "That's Why they Earn the Big Bucks" file - as the IMF has the temerity to suggest that trade tensions and a lack of productivity gains from AI are going to inhibit growth.
Who would have known otherwise?
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Official figures suggest China's economy hit its target but analysts have cast doubt on the data.
Graham Watson's insight:
China's economy grew by 5% last year, in line with its target - no surprise there, given that the Communist Party have previously been explicit about GDP figures being "man made".
However, its strong trade performance, with the announcement of a record trade surplus of of $1.19tn (£890bn), indicates that even in the face of President Trump's tariffs, exporters have simply moved into other markets. The problem may be that to do so has required an unsustainable degree of state assistance, and this might affect future growth.
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Heads of state across Europe respond in solidarity with Denmark and Greenland, and boycott of World Cup suggested
Graham Watson's insight:
You just can't script it - however, last night saw President Trump threaten his NATO allies with a 25% tariff until they relent and allow the US to purchase Greenland.
I just don't know what to say.
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Experts say central banks are increasingly stuffing their vaults as an insurance policy in a volatile world
Graham Watson's insight:
I could put this on a number of board - but I'll put it here, because it implies that the position of the dollar as the global reserve currency is under threat, and central banks are looking to buy gold as a hedge against global uncertainty.
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Institute For Public Policy Research thinktank report calls on chancellor to pursue policy of ‘securonomics’
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian article highlights the extent to which there is interdependence in global supply chains, in this case in the green energy sector. The article cites research by the Institute For Public Policy Research which suggests that the UK's clean energy sector is over-reliant upon China, not least for critical raw materials.
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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal would help boost semiconductor production in the US.
Graham Watson's insight:
Trade policy conducted in an atmosphere of mutual respect. Or not, depending upon your point of view.
However, the US is cutting tariffs on Taiwanese imports to 15% as result of the Taiwanese pledging to invest at least $250bn (£187bn) in US production of semi-conductors.
Is this economically efficient? Probably not. But you might argue that the Taiwanese have agreed to it, so they think that there's mutual benefit to be had. But if there were, wouldn't they be investing in the US without having to be induced to do so.
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Exclusive: US is less feared by its traditional adversaries, while its allies feel ever more distant, results show
Graham Watson's insight:
Make America Great Again?
Think again, the latest research suggests, somewhat surprisingly, that electing a pathological liar, a narcissist, someone without a coherent policy agenda who governs exclusively in their own self-interest - and I'm being civil in this assessment - and you erode the trust that people have in your nation.
There's little economics here, but in terms of international relations, it appears the Trumponomics is having adverse effects. I'd call them counter-intuitive, if they were. The shame is that they're fairly intuitive.
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Editorial: Attacking Jerome Powell distracts from Republicans’ thin legislative record and policies that continue to squeeze American household incomes
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian's too nice here, in seeing the attacks on the Federal Reserve as an attempt to blame the Fed for the cost of living crisis in the US and the absence of any domestic policy agenda.
I'd go further. The Epstein files must contain some pretty interesting material too, given this and the intervention in Venezuela.
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From
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The Supreme Court's decision on Trump's trade strategy could come as soon as Wednesday.
Graham Watson's insight:
The descent into authoritarianism continues - the President is desperately trying not to take responsibility for his policymaking and trying to put pressure on the Supreme Court to permit his tariffs, explaining that to not do so would cause chaos.
Of course, you might suggest that the source of the chaos lie elsewhere.
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Thinktank InfluenceMap has produced another piece of Davos focused research noting that half of the world's CO2 emissions come from just 32 fossil fuel extractors. They note that apart from a COVID induced blip, fossil fuel use has continued to the extent that "Emissions would have to fall by 45% by 2030 to meet the Paris agreement’s goal of 1.5C", something that's clearly impossible.
Just for interest's sake, "Saudi Aramco was the biggest state-controlled polluter and ExxonMobil was the largest investor-owned polluter", both responsible for negative externalities equivalent to Russia (5th largest polluter) and South Korea (9th largest polluter) respectively.