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The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first cut to interest rates since 2024. 
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Economists split on need for new Beijing stimulus amid headwinds from Trump tariffs and crisis-hit property sector
Graham Watson's insight:
Slower growth has been reported in China, with the twin effect of US tariffs and the ongoing travails in the property sector holding back the Chinse economy. Indeed, such has been the slowdown in factory output that some economists are calling for another fiscal stimulus to prop up economic growth.
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Big family enterprises, which previously paid no IHT, will face tax of 20% on value above £1m from April
Graham Watson's insight:
This article looks at how Inheritance Tax works, in this case from thw perspective of family business owners looking to bequest their business to their children and avoiding tax in the process.
For example, how many of you know that "Gifts made seven years before someone dies are not subject to IHT, while those given three to seven years before death are taxed on a sliding scale known as 'taper relief'. The rate reduces each year from 32% to 8%."?
The other thing to note is that fewer than 5% of estates pay Inheritance Tax, so should we be lauding people who avoid it?
I think this is a really interesting article - I'm not sure I could work in a job where I'm prepared to say " [the individuals concerned] have considerable wealth and they are worried about that being in the name of their children if they are not ready”. It must be really difficult for them.
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More than 300 South Koreans who were arrested in the raid are due to return home on Friday.
Graham Watson's insight:
The recent arrest of 475 South Korean workers who were installing the production lines at a Hyundai plant is a direct consequence of the trade and immigration policies adopted by President Trump. If you create uncertainty, and make it hard for people to invest in your economy, then they're not going to do so.
And if the level of FDI falls, then there will be lower levels of economic growth. Economics 101, as Americans might say. However, it's clear that the President doesn't understand, or, to be frank, doesn't even want to understand.
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The gulf between Trump's rhetoric and the reality on the ground is starting to show.
Graham Watson's insight:
Is Fall River a microcosm of the US economy as a whole; if so, this BBC article highlights the many different effects of the President's tariffs - increased demand for sewing services, but difficulties in recruiting staff, higher raw material costs and so forth.
So, for all the rhetoric touting a massive increase in investment in the US and job creation, this town, and wider economic data don't seem to suggest that the tariffs are benefitting very many people, something that good Economics students would have been able to tell the President prior to their imposition.
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Issue creates clear dividing line between left and right, as populists target voters with vow to scrap levy
Graham Watson's insight:
Given all of the discussion about a wealth tax in the UK, this article looks at how the issue of a wealth tax has become a major issue in the Norwegian election.
The article looks at the effect of the tax, the amount of tax revenue raised and the wider economic and social implications of a wealth tax. Not only does it raise revenue, but it's seen as a cornerstone of Norway's progressive tax system.
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Employers added just 22,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest US labour market data - presumably confected by someone who is in the President's good books - suggest that the US economy is slowing, with only 22,000 jobs added, fewer than expected and unemployment has also picked up.
This suggests the economy is slowing, something that the President won't be fond of.
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Textiles, footwear, jewellery, gems and seafood are sectors most affected in trade with US, India’s biggest market
Graham Watson's insight:
More about the effect of President Trump's tariffs, with Indian businesses, notably in the textile sector, fearing for their futures in the face of 50% tariffs. Overall, the tariffs are going to have a marked effect on labour-intensive sectors like footwear, jewellery and gems, and have the potential to reduce trade by nearly $45bn.
Bear in mind that some of India's largest competitors face far smaller tariffs - Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam face a tariff of between 15 and 20%.
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Democrats say the arrangement indicates Stephen Miran would be Trump's "puppet" at the central bank.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though there are concerns about whether or not President Trump's, Stephen Miran, pick to replace Adriana Kugler as Federal Reserve governor is going to be truly 'independent' given that he's going to keep his White House job - chief of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers - although he will take leave of absence.
To what extent will this compromise central bank independence? I couldn't possibly comment but reading the article might give some hints as to whether Mr.Miran is 'independent' or even has his own mind.
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The move is in response to a lower court ruling that some tariffs did not fall within the president's mandate.
Graham Watson's insight:
No surprises here: President Trump is asking the Supreme Court to uphold his tariffs. The worst behaved child in the class asks an indulgent mother to take his side - bear in mind that President Trump has appointed three of the nine members of the Supreme Court.
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Republicans once believed governments should get out of the way. Trump is making his influence felt in every corner of the American economy
Graham Watson's insight:
An interesting perspective on the extent to which President Trump has disregarded the Republican values of Ronald Reagan et al and moved the US more closely towards an economy with a higher degree of government intervention and central planning. The latter might be worrying given that the "golden stake" includes a provision for "$350bn for investments 'owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President'. That would worry me.
However, the thrust of this article is to suggest that the present incumbent has turned his back on free market economics and instead taken stakes in a number of US firms, interfered in markets, not least with protectionism and you might add in just creating uncertainty, he's damaging the efficient functioning of markets.
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Editorial: The US president’s move against Lisa Cook shows his despotic bent, but the Fed was never democracy’s guardian. It’s time to rethink who really controls money
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian editorial looks at one of the main issues of the week, central bank independence, following the attempt of President Trump to oust Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook.
How surprising that the of all the governors the President should look at unseating a black woman - that alone should give both his critics and supporters something to ponder. However, it calls into question the notion of central bank independence and whether or not that's a good thing.
There are some interesting observations here about the trinity of credibility, transparency and accountability, and I've not considered some elements of this - not least the composition of the regional boards of the Fed which may favour established business elites over other economic agents, although I have spoken about the fact that the MPC is dangerously weighted in favour of City-based groupthink.
It is well worth a read.
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The move comes after the two countries blew past a self-imposed deadline to reach a trade agreement.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though there's some thawing of US-Canada relations, with the news that Canada is scrapping some of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, although there's not yet a US-Canada trade deal.
However, it will increase economic welfare for economic agents in the two countries.
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Rising prices, partly driven by tariffs, could worsen a divide in the US economy between the haves and the have-nots.
Graham Watson's insight:
An article that reveals a fundamental truth: the distributional effects of inflation fall largely on the poorest members of society, something that is as true of the US as it is of elsewhere.
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Recent data shows stagflation, stagnant growth and price inflation, is possible as economy shaken by uncertainty
Graham Watson's insight:
Oh dear! It seems that there's a chance that the US might be on the brink of experiencing stagflation - where the normal short-run, inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, as depicted by the short-run Phillips Curve no longer holds - and an economy experiences both rising inflation and unemployment.
It's thought that President Trump's tariffs might be responsible for this. Who could have thought that they'd prove so damaging to the US economy? Any half-competent student of post-16 Economics, actually.
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The pace of price rises ticked up as focus turns to the next move by the US Federal Reserve.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'd say "you couldn't script this", apart from the fact that its self-evidently the case that you could. However, the latest US inflation data has ticked up prior to the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
With the general price level now 2.9% higher than it was last year, the Fed is going to have to consider whether it's appropriate to cut interest rates as the President seemingly is insistent upon. Of course, the President might fail to understand that one of the reason that inflation is rising is because of his tariffs but that's for another day, something made clear by rising tomato prices.
All I'm prepared to state is that it makes the decision marginally harder than it was but, no doubt, the President will still argue that rates are higher than they should be.
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Carmaker’s CEO says Porsche is being squeezed by ‘sandwich’ of tariffs and weak Chinese market
Graham Watson's insight:
With the prevailing market adversely affecting Volkswagen's profits, this article contains something I don't think I've ever come across before. The prospect of a country agreeing a tariff deal with an individual manufacturer.
That seems to be what Volkswagen are suggesting: the current tariff on imports of EU cars is 27.5%, but the President may lower this in future although VW think that because of their investment plans in the US, they might face a uniquely lower tariff instead. It would be remarkable.
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President alters demands on a whim, and although investors are averting eyes for now, risks rise with each chaotic week
Graham Watson's insight:
Heather Stewart casts her eyes over the US economy and suggests that the effect of Trumponomics is largely adverse, if only because of the lack of certainty and the disregard for environmental and labour market norms. And whilst things are going OK-ish now, she suggests that this isn't a for economic success long-term strategy.
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August’s report gave signs of a cooling labor market with negative job numbers for the first time since 2020 – here’s what we learned
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian take on the latest US labour market data has drilled down into the data and is even more negative than the BBC account, highlighting the fact that jobs have been lost in the US for the first time since December 2020.
There's also a fine quote from President Trump: "Trump said that 'the real numbers' will be reported next year. 'The real numbers that I’m talking about are going to be whatever it is, but will be in a year from now,' he said. 'You’re going to see job numbers like our country has never seen.'. Make of that what you will...
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A massive EU subsidy scandal has pulled back the curtain to reveal how power operates in Greece, says journalist Alexander Clapp
Graham Watson's insight:
Wow! This is worth a read, if only because the opening paragraph indicates the obvious nature of the fraud, and I'm incredulous that no-one in the EU sought to question it.
According to the article, "Between 2016 and 2022, the sheep population on the island of Crete more than doubled." This was symptomatic of a widespread fraud perpetuated by the Greek state agency that oversaw the allocation of European farming subsidies, OPEKEPE.
The extent of the fraud meant that Greece received more than 2bn euros in farming subsidies each year, around a quarter of its military budget. But surely this sort of thing should both be easy to spot and now that it's been discovered some of the people involved should face criminal proceedings. And as for the opportunity cost.
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The formalisation of a deal that was announced in July eases uncertainty for Japan's motor industry giants.
Graham Watson's insight:
Yet more uncertainty in global trade, with President Trump signing an executive order lowering tariffs on Japanese cars to 15% from 27.5%. The new tariff applies to most Japanese goods, but the nature of trade negotiations isn't the most transparent, and that will do nothing for certainty or trade flows.
It's indicative of the current policy environment though.
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Agricultural brokers tell the BBC there has been a surge of interest from exporters in trade with China.
Graham Watson's insight:
Irrespective of the welfare effects of President Trump's tariffs, and remember Scott Bessent thinks that tariff revenues are a good thing that could boost GDP by up to 5% - something that suggests he's either being disingenuous or he's just not a very good economist.
However, it's undeniably the case that these tariffs are going to alter global trade patterns, and probably not to US advantage. US consumers are going to face higher prices for Chinese and Indian goods, and their producers are going to export more elsewhere, presumably lowering prices.
Furthermore, foreign producers in places like Brazil are going to look for alternative markets, such as China, so the flow of goods to the US is going to slow and it may also adversely affect product quality and consumer choice.
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The President of the European Central Bank warns against Donald Trump seizing control of the US Federal Reserve.
Graham Watson's insight:
Well I never, the President of the ECB is opposed to political control of the Federal Reserve, not just in terms of its effect upon the US economy, but because of the spillover effects for the rest of the global economy.
President Trump wants the main US interest rate to be less than 1%, which perhaps betrays a lack of understanding of economic history and places some limitations on his ability to count.
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A US appeals court has ruled that most tariffs issued by US President Donald Trump are illegal, setting up a potential legal showdown that could upend his foreign policy agenda.
Graham Watson's insight:
Ha ha! I think I've discovered why President Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal and an overreach of Presidential authority. The ruling suggests that the President doesn't have the power to levy taxes on the American people. Of course, he doesn't think these tariffs are a tax on Americans, which for the most part they are.
Of course, it wouldn't be a "disaster" for the US if they were removed either. However, to understand the welfare implications of tariffs appear to go way beyond the current President's economic understanding.
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Trump found to have overstepped authority with tariff policies as president accuses court of political bias
Graham Watson's insight:
Here we go again - the "partisan judiciary" have ruled that most of President Trump's tariffs are illegal. He's argued that because of national security concerns, as President he has the ability to unilaterally impose tariffs, a view that isn't shared by the latest court ruling.
So, at present the tariffs stay in place, no doubt pending appeal, but they could be gone on 14 October, although I think that highly unlikely. Even if the next appeal fails, a supine Congress is likely to simply reinstate them at some point, if only because the imposition of tariffs is the only policy that the Trump administration actually has.
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And the Federal Reserve are also setting interest rates this week. Most commentators are expecting a 0.25% cut, to a range of 4.00 - 4.25%, although, of course, he who knows best - President Trump - would want rates to be even lower.
The expected cut in rates would seem to reflect the fact that the US labour market is slowing but it's arguably made harder by US trade policy and the imposition of tariffs that have helped keep inflation sticky.
However, for me, the standout quote: "The president's jawboning of the Fed to lower rates I think has had zero impact whatsoever."