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Scooped by
Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics February 19, 5:22 AM
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During winter in Britain fresh produce is sent by cargo ship from the West African nation every week.
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As the conflict triggers economic disruption some risk being hit hard, while others stand to benefit.
Graham Watson's insight:
Crikey! And there's more.
This time the BBC are looking at the distributional effects of the current Middle East conflict, noting that oil producers and renewable energy producers are the beneficiaries and that net oil importers are the losers. Them and the people responsible for starting this conflict in the first place who are heavily invested in the Middle East.
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New Zealand economic growth tipped to overtake Australia’s this year but Middle East conflict casts a shadow over outlook
Graham Watson's insight:
It's always interesting to read about another economy facing the same problems that we are. In this case it's New Zealand, which was forecast to grow this year but, because it's so heavily dependent upon global trade and tourism, there are concerns that the Middle East conflict could stall growth, and its size makes it more vulnerable than most to supply-side shocks such as this.
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The World Bank Group (WBG) Scorecard is shifting the focus to measuring impact by prioritizing real-world development outcomes, results achieved, and results expected over simply counting projects. The video explains the critical difference between "Results Achieved" - the tangible outcomes already delivered, such as new internet connections or safe drinking water, and "Results Expected," which signals the full ambition of our operations. By tracking both, the WBG Scorecard provides a transparent picture of the WBG's impact and future goals.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another little snippet looking at how the World Bank Group's Scorecard is going to be used to track the difference between Results Achieved and Results Expected outcomes, to inform policy decisions. It will track diverse indicators such as connection to the internet, access to clean drinking water and the learning outcomes of students, all things that imply a higher level of development.
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Conflict pushes companies struggling with rising costs in sectors such as steel and chemicals to the edge
Graham Watson's insight:
More on the Iran conflict, with the Guardian focusing on the implications of higher oil and energy prices for energy-intensive industries, like chemicals and steel, and by definition, inflation more generally.
In short, not good.
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US supreme court has ‘ransacked’ the country, president argues, in wake of its ruling against his trade agenda
Graham Watson's insight:
Madman howls at the moon.
Or something to that effect, as President Trump has again used social media to criticize the Supreme Court and push his tariff agenda.
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The country’s 900 billionaires have far too much influence over our government and economy. Here’s how we can reduce the power of the ultra-rich
Graham Watson's insight:
Steven Greenhouse writes in the Guardian arguing that there needs to be a concerted attempt to curb the power of the nation's billionaires, arguing that the select group of 900 has too much influence on policymaking, not least in the form of the tax cuts delivered by President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.
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The World Bank Group (WBG) Scorecard connects global aspirations with real-world results. Built around 22 results indicators across 15 outcome areas, the WBG Scorecard provides a clear, measurable framework for tracking progress toward ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity on a livable planet.
Graham Watson's insight:
I've never seen development presented like this before, and you'd have thought I would have been aware of the World Bank Group's Scorecard, but I'm not. Its purpose is to track the Bank's ability to assist poverty reduction and shared prosperity - which to me strikes me as giving good insights into development and the challenges to development that remain.
There are four aspects to the measure - vision indicators, client context indicators, results indicators, results narratives - all of which underscore the multl-faceted nature of economic development and the extent to which the World Bank is helping overcome them.
And it's available here: Measuring Impact | World Bank Group Scorecard
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The US said it would examine whether countries are effectively blocking goods made with "forced labour".
Graham Watson's insight:
Any excuse for further tariffs - it seems the US is now pretending that many of its trade partners gain unfair cost advantages because of forced labour. Has it really come to this?
The answer, alas, is yes.
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Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears about supply crunch, rattling markets
Graham Watson's insight:
The largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets: you read it here first.
A supply-side shock to end all supply-side shocks.
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Countries around the world are feeling the impact of the conflict and the resulting energy price shock.
Graham Watson's insight:
You could be forgiven for thinking that the media have done the US-Iran war to death, and you'd be right. However, if you crave more, here's consideration of the global dependence upon fossil fuels in the fact of the supply-side shock.
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The move comes weeks after the US Supreme Court struck down a key part of Trump's tariffs policies.
Graham Watson's insight:
The notion that the US is investigating the trade practices of some of its most important trade partners shouldn't be surprising in the current environment. However, you should be cautious about the phrase "unfair practices": does simply being able to produce at a lower price imply "unfair practices"?
It's clearly an attempt to justify more tariffs, but I'd argue that it's liable to impose an even higher burden on US consumers and have little effect on America's trade deficit.
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Beijing has spent decades relying on exports and innovation but that model is now under strain.
Graham Watson's insight:
The policy decisions resulting from this year's Two Sessions and embodied in the 15th Five Year Plan seem to mark a departure from China's previous strategy of export-led growth.
Keen to stabilize the economy and offset the negative effect of the stagnant property market on growth, China's leadership are going to focus on encouraging domestic consumption, something that they've been talking about for over a decade.
This BBC article looks at whether or not this is going to be successful or not, and also concludes by suggesting that China still has significant structural issues to tackle, not least its ageing population.
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The jump in shipments puts the world's second largest economy on track to top the record-breaking annual trade surplus it saw in 2025.
Graham Watson's insight:
So much for President Trump's tariffs damaging the Chinese economy, with Chinese exports surging in the first two months of 2026, meaning that China's trade surplus is likely to grow again.
And yes, whilst exports to the US have fallen by around 10%, exports to the EU and to ASEAN member states are both up by nearly 30%.
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Results Narratives in the World Bank Group Scorecard provide a complete picture of development outcomes, policy reforms, and institutional strengthening beyond just financing. Results Narratives outline the crucial context needed to understand how change happens. This video explores how we capture the impact of non-financial support - such as legal reforms, governance improvements, and market creation, that drives sustainable development. You will see real-world examples from Kenya, Jordan, and Colombia that illustrate how connecting the dots between policy and systems leads to lasting results for people and the planet.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another clip looking at the new World Bank Group Scorecard, highlighting how it it attempting to capture all elements of development stories - both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of development. This clip looks at three different examples - Kenya, Jordan and Colombia helping young people to get jobs, increase female participation and fund improvements in healthcare.
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Egypt30by30 is an IFC program strengthening the foundations of sustainable finance in Egypt. Working with banks and regulators, it helps expand financing for investments that improve efficiency, strengthen resilience, and support long-term growth.
Graham Watson's insight:
The importance of finance for development is set out in this International Finance Corporation clip which emphasises the importance of financial markets for sustainable development. In the case of Egypt, this means the issuing of green bonds to support development and achieve climate change targets.
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Reserve Bank of Australia’s second consecutive increase lifts cash rate target to 4.1%, back to where it was in February last year
Graham Watson's insight:
The first monetary policy response to the Iran conflict? Either way, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised its cash interest rate target to 4.1%, taking interest rates back to where they were in February 2025.
However, if you read the accompanying article - which I know you will - you'll actually find that the RBA governor was intending to increase rates even prior to recent events because inflation was "already too high". You might want to refresh your understanding of how the monetary transmission mechanism will translate the change in rates into changes in real variables.
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Food production in many African countries depends heavily on fertiliser imported from the Gulf through the strait of Hormuz
Graham Watson's insight:
As ever, it seems that some of the world's most vulnerable are going to suffer the most as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. African farmers are heavily dependent upon fertiliser being imported via the Strait of Hormuz, so any lengthy blockage of that waterway will have severe implications for agricultural productivity and food security.
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Another weekend of violence compounded global market concerns over war in the Middle East, following US strikes on the vital oil hub
Graham Watson's insight:
I could put this in the Microeconomic section and sell it as D&S, however, I'll leave it here. You could be forgiven for thinking that there was no overarching strategy governing the recent intervention in Iran.
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Greenhouse gases dropped just 0.1% last year as environment minister criticises lack of improvement
Graham Watson's insight:
Germany has missed some of its climate change targets, with greenhouse gases only falling by 0.1% last year. However, it's an interesting issue - wouldn't we expect there to be diminishing marginal returns to environmental reforms?
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Exclusive survey finds negative economic impacts felt across party lines as White House doubles down on tariffs
Graham Watson's insight:
Well, I never. A Harris Poll finds that Americans of all hues think that Trump's tariffs have increased prices for consumers, albeit Republican are less willing to do so, with 72% thinking they've had a negative impact.
The other 28% are, presumably, not Economics students. Or morons. Or both.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a temporary measure that will last until 11 April.
Graham Watson's insight:
I know what the US is hoping the relaxation of sanctions against Russia is going to achieve - an increase in the supply of Russian oil - and lower global oil prices. However, I'm not sure that it's the wisest move in that in signals that the US foreign policy has no ethical basis, and is driven almost exclusively by economic imperatives.
However, more D&S, AD-AS analysis possible...
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The most powerful nation in the world is now being led by a rogue president who rejects its longstanding values
Graham Watson's insight:
Robert Reich touches upon the opportunity cost of the war with Iran, apparently costing "roughly $1bn per day, or $41,666,667 per hour, $11,574 per second.
He argues that the longer-term political cost of this might be much higher.
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From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up supplies
Graham Watson's insight:
A quick look at government interventions across Asia to mitigate the effects of higher oil prices as a result of the Iran conflict. Everything from price controls, rationing fuel a shorter working week and encouraging working from home.
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Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc has called on the US, Israel and Iran to reach "some kind of deal".
Graham Watson's insight:
More on Iran, and, surprise, surprise, its about cost increase being passed onto consumers. Elementary AD-AS analysis, I would think.
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Crude prices could surpass their 2008 record, with potentially dire effects for consumers and businesses
Graham Watson's insight:
How high could oil prices go? And what are the implications of this. More on the conflict in the Middle East.
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I'm not sure where to put this, so I've opted for here, if only to give an example of global supply chains. In this case, this lengthy BBC clip looks at where Britain gets its food from, highlighting two Northern Senegalese farms which use water diverted from the Senegal River to water their fields.
There are lots of starting points here - the spread of global agriculture, the costs and benefits of such farming for Senegal, the nature of food miles and the negative externalities associated with shipping.
Anyway you look at it, it's a remarkable example of what globalisation has meant for the global economy.