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Scooped by Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics

February 13, 3:40 AM

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UK economy limps along at 0.1% growth – but there are reasons for optimism in 2026 | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 12, 4:14 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Heather Stewart seeks the silver lining in the latest growth cloud, with an optimistic take on the prospects for 2026. She argues that forthcoming interest rate cuts and Budget measures designed to lower prices are going to have a positive impact on consumer and business confidence and that growth is going to pick up. However, that said, growth forecasts for the year range from 0.9% (Ernst & Young) to 1.4%.

The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.

Graham Watson's curator insight, February 13, 5:22 AM

The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.

Economy

International Economics: IB Economics

A collection of articles relating to the 'international' elements of Economics and relating to IB, Pre-U and A-Level Economics.

Curated by Graham Watson

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Scooped by Graham Watson

Today, 4:08 PM

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From www.youtube.com - Today, 1:06 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This FT film looks at Morocco's potential to supply renewable energy - both wind and solar power. The question is who is going to benefit from this energy, and is this appropriate?

Morocco is a currently a net importer of fossil fuels, importing 90% of its energy needs, and weaning itself of this will improve its balance of trade, and this might feed into more development. However, with international companies eyeing investment in the economy, shouldn't they also be providing low-cost, green energy for Morocco's citizens.

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February 25, 3:39 AM

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The Guardian view on Donald Trump’s tariffs: a nostalgia that misreads a changed world | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 24, 2:07 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

This Guardian editorial looks at the reality behind the bluster of President Trump, and why he's wrong in thinking that the US trade deficit is a major problem. It effectively implies that he's viewing the US position through the wrong lens, and hasn't moved beyond a simplistic 1970s view of the world.

As a result, it argues that he's not focused on the more important structural issues that imperil longer-term US economic growth and has failed to recognise how economic gravity has changed.

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February 24, 6:33 AM

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Trump threatens ‘obnoxious’ tariffs as UK and EU seek clarity on trade deals | Trump tariffs | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 23, 5:40 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Uncertainty. That is it.

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February 24, 6:28 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 23, 7:23 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

And here comes yet more uncertainty and an opportunity cost for the US government, with FedEx suing for a "full refund" of Trump tariffs. I'll get the popcorn; it's going to be interesting watching this play out.

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February 20, 12:09 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 20, 11:25 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

More on today's Supreme Court decision, with Dharshini David noting that unpicking Trump's tariffs isn't going to be straightforward because today's ruling doesn't cover all of them, and the fact that many supply chains have already adapted to them.

The overriding theme is that the President's incoherent and chaotic approach to policymaking is creating global uncertainty and that benefits no-one.

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February 20, 9:25 AM

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Corruption is no longer envelopes of cash – now it is about who Washington is shielding and who it is sacrificing | Kenneth Mohammed | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 20, 4:33 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

I'll leave this here - an interesting piece on global corruption and its winder implications for the global economy. Empirically, corruption slows economic growth, and is likely to entrench inequality. However, for me, the standout line is that where once the US was seen as the global guarantor of anti-corruption standards, under the current President it has casually sacrificed that role, and in its absence there's a need for new development-focused norms to emerge.

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February 19, 5:22 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 18, 7:16 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

I'm not sure where to put this, so I've opted for here, if only to give an example of global supply chains. In this case, this lengthy BBC clip looks at where Britain gets its food from, highlighting two Northern Senegalese farms which use water diverted from the Senegal River to water their fields.

There are lots of starting points here - the spread of global agriculture, the costs and benefits of such farming for Senegal, the nature of food miles and the negative externalities associated with shipping.

Anyway you look at it, it's a remarkable example of what globalisation has meant for the global economy.

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February 16, 3:29 AM

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When Starmer picks up G20 baton he has vital chance to act on aid and debt relief | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 15, 8:16 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Five years ago, and in line with the UN target, the UK gave 0.7% of its GDP in aid; that figure is now down to 0.3%. However, Heather Stewart argues that the UK's chairmanship of G20 gives the current government the opportunity to reset its stance on aid - or more technically official development assistance, and take the lead on debt relief too.

In doing so, she argues it might return the Labour Party to its internationalist roots and attract back into the fold some of the waverers who have left for the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. The shame is that, given the current state of the public finances, above all else, I can't see this happening.

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February 14, 9:11 AM

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US fixation on the hard-hat economy and making manufacturing great again makes little sense | US economy | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 14, 7:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This is an interesting article about the state of the US economy, with Eduardo Porter arguing that the US obsession with the preservation of manufacturing jobs is counter-productive. Manufacturing now accounts for only 8% of US jobs and the author argues that it would be considered nonsensical if the same were said as regards agriculture, which accounts for 2% of US jobs.

However, I'll put this in some sort of context. The same newspaper carried a Larry Elliott piece earlier in the week suggesting the exact opposite: that the UK: that a fixation on the services sector and disregard for manufacturing output and employment was counter-productive.

You can't have both, can you? I suspect that neither case is ideal...

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February 13, 5:57 AM

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From libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org - February 12, 7:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Don't say I don't spoil you - here's the link to the original Liberty Street blog carrying the New York Fed's take on the tariff burden borne by US firms.

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February 13, 3:40 AM

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From www.theguardian.com - February 12, 4:14 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.

Graham Watson's curator insight, February 13, 5:22 AM

The potential headwind? A Labour leadership contest.

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February 13, 2:22 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 12, 5:46 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Excuse me if I'm wrong but the President has sought to remove the Governor and a board member of the Federal Reserve, he has sacked the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and now the head of the antitrust division at the Department of Justice (DOJ) has resigned.

I'm just saying, but isn't this authoritarianism in plain sight, and equally, isn't it likely to mean a reduction in the quality of economic policy?

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February 12, 3:31 AM

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The Guardian view on a ‘Made in Europe’ industrial strategy: an idea whose time has come | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 11, 1:43 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Today's Guardian editorial highlights the prevailing environment for international trade and notes that in the light of the protectionism being implemented by the US and China, the EU needs to think about moving away from a purely free trade position and starting to encourage its consumers to "buy European" if the regional economic grouping wants to counter them.

Ideologically, this seems to be counter-intuitive, but the rules of the game have changed and if the playing field's no longer level, there's surely a case for altering the way you play the game.

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Today, 2:06 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 25, 6:03 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Just read this article: it can be summarised thus. President Trump has introduced uncertainty into international trade, and that's going to damage growth. Everywhere.

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February 24, 10:41 AM

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Trump’s trade war risks undermining his hopes of hefty US interest rate cuts | Graeme Wearden | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 22, 6:58 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

"You. boy...do you want more uncertainty", the caption might say. However, the reality is that the current uncertainty over trade affects both the global economy and the US economy, particularly the conduct of monetary policy in the latter.

Higher tariffs, and greater uncertainty about the future direction of any trade war might see the Federal Reserve stay its hand on future interest rate cuts, irrespective of who the Chairman is, and any sense that Jerome Powell's successor will simply kow-tow and cut rates irrespective of inflation would destroy the credibility of an independent central bank, which might be even worse.

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February 24, 6:31 AM

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Trump’s scramble to fix his crumbling tariff strategy sows global chaos and confusion | Trump tariffs | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 23, 9:37 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

This Guardian piece fleshes out the uncertainty affecting global trade, with many of the US's trade partners having spent time hammering out trade deals only to have them quashed by the Supreme Court ruling. If you didn't know, the President thinks that America is "WINNING" as a result of his tariffs. That's exactly what a growing trade deficit would suggest.

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February 24, 5:25 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 24, 1:32 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The very definition of uncertainty: the President says one thing, the legislation says another. Despite saying in social media that the new global tariff would be 15%, it's come in at 10% as first stated.

Furthermore, the justification for tariffs to "address fundamental international payments problems and continue the Administration's work to rebalance our trade relationships to benefit American workers, farmers, and manufacturers" is wholly invalid: the US trade deficit continues to widen "widening by 2.1% compared to 2024 and hitting roughly $1.2 trillion (£890bn)."

Were international trade a football match, I fear that the crowd would be chanting "You don't know what you're doing". And the biggest shame is that they'd probably be right.

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February 20, 12:06 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 20, 10:11 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Ooops!

Oh dear, President Trump's tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court, by a 6-3 majority and there's confusion about what's going to happen next, with firms potentially now owed hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff refunds.

Yet more uncertainty! And markets have reacted positively to this development signalling what they think about whether or not tariffs are good for the US economy.

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February 20, 9:15 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 20, 8:51 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The inconsistent growth performance of the US continues with growth slowing to 1.4% in the last three months of 2025, after growing by 4.4% in the previous three month period.

It shouldn't be a surprise - such is the uncertainty associated with the current President, and the lack of consistency in policymaking, that anything other than spasmodic growth would be a surprise. Overall, the US grew by 2.2% in 2025, which is decent growth in relation to the rest of the G7 nations.

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February 16, 12:46 PM

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The US is merely the latest to join the global rush to hoard critical minerals | Critical minerals | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 16, 8:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The creation of strategic reserve of critical minerals is becoming a central part of the modern world, and reflects some interesting trends.

In the first place, there's been a surge in the demand for electricity, a combination of the rise of AI and climate change increasing the demand for air conditioning, and not only do the devices themselves, but also the electricity networks need these resources. However, the creation of reserves in other nations also increases the competition for resources and climate change might also threaten supplies of these essential resources.

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February 16, 2:59 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 15, 7:29 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Merely posing the question seems superfluous: the obvious answer is no, but this article looks in detail at why that's the case and in doing so, provides insight into why doing business in Venezuela isn't going to be straightforward.

In the first place, the existing oil industry infrastructure is poorly maintained and there are even doubts about the size of Venezuelan reserves, which are often said to be the largest in the world, although that, it seems, is highly debatable.

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February 14, 5:23 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 13, 9:07 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

At least, US economic news that everyone can enjoy: inflation is down to 2.4%, the slowest pace since the previous May. The President, of course, greeted this in his usual understated way: "Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday...that 'we right now have the hottest country anywhere in the world'."

It creates another interesting monetary policy decision, with rates likely to soften in the months ahead, but probably not quick enough for the President, although some are worried that the full effect of Trump's tariffs haven't yet been fully passed on to consumers.

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February 13, 5:27 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 12, 8:07 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Oh dear, the President won't like the narrative here, even if it's been self-evident to all post-16 Economics students since his introduction of tariffs. However, the latest research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has reached some rather robust conclusions: "in 2025, the average tariff rate on imported goods rose to 13% from just 2.6% at the start of the year" and "that 90% of the cost of increased tariffs... was paid for by US companies.

And, as if that wasn't enough in the way of fake news, "the Tax Foundation said the 2025 increases cost the average household $1,000 (£734.30). In 2026, tariffs will cost the same household $1,300" offsetting the affects of any Trumpian tax cuts in his Big Beautiful Bill.

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February 13, 2:25 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - February 12, 7:05 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

As the article states: "Layoffs have remained limited, apart from some high-profile cuts at firms such as Amazon and UPS and the unemployment rate has held steady at around 4.3%. Meanwhile, the wider economy continues to grow, expanding at a robust annual pace of 4.4% in the most recent figures." So where are the jobs?

There are a variety of observations, some economically valid about increased automation and productivity, others Aquinas' like in their sophistry. And then there's Occam's razor. Remind me about the President's attitude to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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February 12, 1:45 PM

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Declines in health and education in poor countries ‘harming earning potential’ | World Bank | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - February 12, 10:06 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This World Bank research has tried to quantify the opportunity cost of a lack of access to education and healthcare for children in low- and middle-income countries. It reckons - and who am I to quibble with the methodology, other than a cynical and increasingly old Economics teacher - that children born in this environment could earn 51% more over the lifetimes if they had the same access to these services as the best performing nations at these levels of income.

It highlights the factors that limit human capital and these policies that have helped overcome these issues, as diverse nations like Jamaica, Kenya, Krgyzstan and Vietnam have done.

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International Economics: IB Economics

The scramble for Morocco's energy future | FT Film

The Guardian view on Donald Trump’s tariffs: a nostalgia that misreads a changed world | Editorial | The Guardian

Trump threatens ‘obnoxious’ tariffs as UK and EU seek clarity on trade deals | Trump tariffs | The Guardian

FedEx sues for "full" Trump tariff refund

A rare 'no' for Trump, but not necessarily an end to tariffs

Corruption is no longer envelopes of cash – now it is about who Washington is shielding and who it is sacrificing | Kenneth Mohammed | The Guardian

The two farms in Senegal that supply many of the UK's vegetables

When Starmer picks up G20 baton he has vital chance to act on aid and debt relief | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

US fixation on the hard-hat economy and making manufacturing great again makes little sense | US economy | The Guardian

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

UK economy limps along at 0.1% growth – but there are reasons for optimism in 2026 | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

US antitrust chief resigns amid tensions with Trump officials

The Guardian view on a ‘Made in Europe’ industrial strategy: an idea whose time has come | Editorial | The Guardian

Trump's tariffs: Asia braces for another year of Trump tariff turmoil

Trump’s trade war risks undermining his hopes of hefty US interest rate cuts | Graeme Wearden | The Guardian

Trump’s scramble to fix his crumbling tariff strategy sows global chaos and confusion | Trump tariffs | The Guardian

Trump's new global tariff comes into effect at 10%

Supreme Court strikes down Trump's sweeping global tariffs

US economy slows after turbulent year

The US is merely the latest to join the global rush to hoard critical minerals | Critical minerals | The Guardian

Trump has big plans for Venezuela's oil but are they feasible?

Inflation eases in US as prices for used cars fall

Costs from Trump's tariffs paid mainly by US firms and consumers, NY Fed says

The US economy is growing - so where are all the jobs?

Declines in health and education in poor countries ‘harming earning potential’ | World Bank | The Guardian