The Economic Method
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February 26, 2018 3:25 PM
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Can you predict a recession by looking at pregnancy rates?

Can you predict a recession by looking at pregnancy rates? | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Research from the US suggests a drop in conception rates could indicate a recession is on the way.
Graham Watson's insight:
Sometimes you come across an article that is simply too good to be true - are pregnancy rates a leading indicator of recessions? Some recent American research suggests as much. According to the article, the authors of the paper,  Daniel Hungerman, Kasey Buckles and Steven Lugauer "found that conception rates drop several months before other signs of a recession become visible."

Is this credible research, and who on earth would think of funding it? 
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The Economic Method
A collection of articles that deal with the methodology of Economics and related disciplines
Curated by Graham Watson
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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 13, 9:50 AM
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Trio win Nobel economics prize for work on technology-driven growth | Nobel economics prize | The Guardian

Trio win Nobel economics prize for work on technology-driven growth | Nobel economics prize | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Joel Mokyr has warned of ‘dark clouds’ amid Trump tariffs, while Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have written about role of ‘creative destruction’
Graham Watson's insight:

The annual announcement of the Nobel Prize for Economics has come today, with Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt being rewarded for their work on the relationship between innovation and growth, notably in the form of creative destruction. 

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August 23, 4:51 AM
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Fears grow over impact of ONS data reliability on Rachel Reeves’s budget | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian

Fears grow over impact of ONS data reliability on Rachel Reeves’s budget | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Troubles at UK statistics body are muddying economic picture for Treasury and spending watchdog, sources warn
Graham Watson's insight:

This is a rather concerning article, highlighting the shortcomings of the Office for National Statistics and the fact that a lack of accurate data might impact the quality of economic policymaking. 

 

A shortcoming like this means that the data being used both by the Treasury and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility might be working on the basis of incomplete or missing data and that's dangerous. 

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July 20, 8:52 AM
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The quiet, matter-of-fact takeover of women holding senior economist roles | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

The quiet, matter-of-fact takeover of women holding senior economist roles | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
From Rachel Reeves to the MPC, and thinktanks to unions and lobby groups, many of the authoritative voices we hear discussing economics are female
Graham Watson's insight:

Heather Stewart's piece for tomorrow's Guardian notes the rise of female economists, arguing that they've stealthily become more important in the recent past and highlighting a number of prominent UK based examples.

 

It's a welcome move, although I'd argue that it's more important that they're good economists, irrespective of gender, and that it's a little bit insular in ignoring women such as Janet Yellen, Christine Lagarde, Kristalina Georgieva and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to name four globally renowned female economists.

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July 1, 2:16 AM
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To all who think capitalism can drive progressive change, it won’t – and here’s the shocking proof | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian

To all who think capitalism can drive progressive change, it won’t – and here’s the shocking proof | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Asset manager Aberdeen’s surprise cut to funding research into inequality has left those that used its grants for good work reeling, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
Graham Watson's insight:

Is Polly Toynbee right, are capitalism and progressive change mutually exclusive? If this example is taken in isolation - with asset manager Aberdeen (note vowels!) cutting research funding into inequality - then it might look that way. 

 

And when companies undertake things such as this, that add nothing to their profits, but obviously incur costs, we might think about their motivation for doing so. 

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June 27, 3:31 AM
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Office for National Statistics has ‘deep-seated’ problems and needs an overhaul | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian

Office for National Statistics has ‘deep-seated’ problems and needs an overhaul | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Devereux Review on the UK’s main statistics body also says a revision of past figures may be required
Graham Watson's insight:

I rarely post on this board, but this is a fundamental methodological point about the role of the Office for National Statistics and its importance in policymaking.

 

In short, the criticisms of the Devereux Review are fairly damning: there are "deep-seated" problems and this has adverse implications. Policymaking is only as good as the data it's based upon, and it seems that the ONS is falling short in many areas and that, over time, previous figures are likely to need to be revised - note, this will trigger hand-wringing and claims that inaccurate data has unfairly tarnished the reputation of the previous government. 

 

As a result, there's going to be a £10m investment in the ONS; however, £10m doesn't go a long way. 

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March 26, 7:52 AM
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Late data from one business means UK wage growth may need to be revised, says ONS | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian

Late data from one business means UK wage growth may need to be revised, says ONS | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Caveat from statistics agency is latest sign of its problems collecting reliable economic data
Graham Watson's insight:

More problems with data gathering at the Office for National Statistics with the latest data on UK wage growth being qualified in the wake of late data from one firm. You wouldn't imagine that it could have such an effect, even if it were a large private sector employer like Tesco, but it calls into question the data that used to help policymaking in the UK. 

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March 8, 5:24 AM
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Data, waves and wind to be counted in the economy

Data, waves and wind to be counted in the economy | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Wind and wave power is set to be included in calculations of the size of countries' economies for the first time, as part of changes approved at the United Nations.
Graham Watson's insight:

The way in which GDP is calculated is going to change, with the UN agreeing that a number of other economic activities should be valued including wind and wave power, and data is also being given a value. As a result, of this minor tweak, it's likely to increase GDP by 2-3%. 

 

This, in itself, won't see an increase in living standards, but it does have potentially more interesting implications for defence spending because the government has committed to spending a fixed percentage of GDP on defence. As a result, if GDP grows, this means that the government are going to have to find more to fund this. 

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October 15, 2024 1:46 AM
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Trio of professors win Nobel economics prize for work on post-colonial wealth | Nobel economics prize | The Guardian

Trio of professors win Nobel economics prize for work on post-colonial wealth | Nobel economics prize | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
British-born Simon Johnson and James A Robinson and Turkish-American Daron Acemoğlu share £810,000 prize
Graham Watson's insight:

Excellent news for British economists - with the announcement that this year's Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of inclusive institutions in promoting development. 

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February 6, 2024 5:46 AM
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Isolated Indigenous people as happy as wealthy western peers – study | Happiness | The Guardian

Isolated Indigenous people as happy as wealthy western peers – study | Happiness | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Interviews with people in remote communities challenge widely held perception that money buys happiness
Graham Watson's insight:

Always nice to remind yourself of the Beatles' contribution to economic thought. As they pointed out in their 6th single,  "Can't Buy Me Love" in 1964, "I don't care to much for money, 'cos money can't buy me love".

 

And so it would seem, with indigenous people showing similar, if not higher levels of happiness with people in High Income Countries. 

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November 29, 2023 3:38 AM
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Online marketplaces report surge in sales of secondhand goods | Business | The Guardian

Online marketplaces report surge in sales of secondhand goods | Business | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Amazon, eBay and others record rise in reselling as cost of living crisis bites and customers try to shop sustainably
Graham Watson's insight:

Might this classify as an economic indicator? I would argue that the level of sales of secondhand goods is a good proxy for the state of the economy. It should be easy to understand why, applying the concept of income elasticity of demand, and there might be some nice data to support the hypothesis. 

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January 31, 2023 6:25 AM
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How much should we care what the IMF thinks?

How much should we care what the IMF thinks? | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
The IMF's is just one of many forecasts for the UK economy, how much weight should we give it?
Graham Watson's insight:

What do we care about what experts say? 

 

This is a brief summary of Faisal Islam's BBC article - and, alas, reflects the growing trend to disregard expert opinion if it fails to support our own views. There's a little bit of theory here - but I suspect that this has more to do with the impact of pluralistic ignorance on policymaking. 

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November 30, 2022 3:43 AM
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Biodiversity as an Asset Class Ep 2: The Valuation of Natural Capital

With our current economic system treating nature as an ‘externality’, how can market processes adjust to price risk associated with the loss of nature and biodiversity? Bernardus J. Marttin, Member of the Managing Board with Rabobank, argues for the concept of natural capital which factors in such externalities, integrating nature’s welfare into any measures on prosperity.

Biodiversity as an Asset Class is a five episode series that profiles leading global thinkers on how we must reconstruct our economic system in order to protect nature and the future of life on Earth. Each episode explores topics that include removing barriers to action, the valuation of natural capital, a nature-positive business approach, and the role of philanthropic capital.

Graham Watson's insight:

To what extent are traditional measures of national income and economic welfare appropriate. This clip looks at how we might start valuing nature appropriately, reflecting biodiversity. 

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October 10, 2022 11:53 AM
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Ben Bernanke, former US Federal Reserve chief, wins Nobel Prize

Ben Bernanke, former US Federal Reserve chief, wins Nobel Prize | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Ben Bernanke, who led the Fed through the financial crisis, is one of a trio to scoop the award.
Graham Watson's insight:

This year's Nobel Prize for Economics is shared by former Federal Reserve boss, Ben Bernanke, and fellow economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, all of whom worked on the prevention of bank runs, which may have helped avert a more severe global financial crisis in 2008. 

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September 2, 11:56 AM
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Why Trump’s undermining of US statistics is so dangerous | Daniel Malinsky | The Guardian

Why Trump’s undermining of US statistics is so dangerous | Daniel Malinsky | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
From the firing of the labor statistics chief to plans for a new census, the president’s moves serve to entrench authoritarianism
Graham Watson's insight:

I've put this opinion piece here because it highlights how President Trump's recent moves to question official statistics and fire the Chief of Labour Statistics undermine the impartiality of data and the adverse consequences of this for both policymaking in the short-term and democracy in the longer term. 

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July 21, 4:38 AM
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It’s time to rethink how we measure labor in the US | Gene Marks | The Guardian

It’s time to rethink how we measure labor in the US | Gene Marks | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Between AI, changes under Trump and a ‘tougher environment’, what do we really know about the jobs market?
Graham Watson's insight:

This Gene Marks article has wider implications than merely looking at the US labour market - in it he posits whether the latest employment data is really that accurate. In the US, he thinks that over-employment, with people having more than one job, might distort unemployment and job creation data, whereas in the UK we're more concerned about under-employment and it's impact. 

 

Either way, global statistical agencies are struggling to keep abreast of the latest labour market trends. 

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July 14, 4:57 AM
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Why Labour should target happiness alongside economic growth | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

Why Labour should target happiness alongside economic growth | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
With the UK still shaking off the psychological side-effects of Covid, Rachel Reeves might want to broaden her aims
Graham Watson's insight:

Another look at the now increasingly old debate about what the government's macroeconomic objectives should be, with Heather Stewart arguing that in the post-Covid age, there should be an explicit focus on happiness - however that can be measured - and that might allow the government to reshape the narrative in its favour. 

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June 29, 10:03 AM
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Why 99.5% Of The World’s Biggest Projects Fail | Big Business | Business Insider

Dan Gardner is the coauthor of "How Big Things Get Done," a book that explores why so many billion-dollar projects, from nuclear power plants to Olympic Games, go wrong and how some manage to succeed. Drawing on data from over 16,000 megaprojects,

 

Gardner and his coauthor Bent Flyvbjerg reveal the startling truth: Only 0.5% of big projects are delivered on time, on budget, and with the promised results. Business Insider interviewed Dan Gardner to learn about some of the world's most high-profile projects, like the Sydney Opera House, which soared 1,400% over budget, and the troubled California High-Speed Rail, which is expected to cost over $100 billion and hasn't moved any passengers yet. He also spotlights the rare successes, like the Empire State Building and the Hoover Dam, to show what’s possible when projects are built on smart planning, strong leadership, and modular thinking.

Graham Watson's insight:

This Business Insider clip interviews Dan Gardner, co-author, with Bent Flyvbjerg, of "How Big Things Get Done" looking at why so many megaprojects are overrun their budgets and deadlines, resulting in higher costs and a loss of economic welfare, to the extent that some of the most egregious examples, such as the Montreal Olympics and the Sydney Opera House represent examples of government failure. It's an excellent introduction to many of the key ideas contained in the book. 

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May 8, 8:46 AM
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‘Outdated and unjust’: can we reform global capitalism? | Trump tariffs | The Guardian

‘Outdated and unjust’: can we reform global capitalism? | Trump tariffs | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
The long read: President Trump’s tariffs have plunged the world economy into chaos. But history counsels against despair – and the left should seize on capitalism’s crisis of legitimacy
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian's long read looks at the future of global capitalism in the post-Trump era and argues that it represents a chance for the political Left to get on the front foot and make a compelling case for reshaping the economic order to emphasise sustainability and equality. 

 

You may not agree with it, but it's worth your consideration nonetheless.  

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March 21, 9:43 AM
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Troubled UK statistics agency warns of errors in its growth figures | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian

Troubled UK statistics agency warns of errors in its growth figures | Office for National Statistics | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
ONS, already working on fixing a survey, uncovers problems with two indices used to measure prices in economy
Graham Watson's insight:

Oops! It seems as though the quality of economic data being generated by the ONS is currently below par with the agency having detected problems with the way in which it calculates certain price indices, including the Producer Price Index, and this has implications for its ability to ensure that growth figures are accurate. As a result, it's warned that it will have to revise data for 2022 and 2023, but the consensus view that that, to some extent the changes will balance one another out and have few implications for economic growth. 

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November 19, 2024 4:03 AM
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Housework to green energy: the new markers of growth in rival metric to GDP | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

Housework to green energy: the new markers of growth in rival metric to GDP | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Sustainability-focused inclusive income formula accounts for non-monetary factors overlooked in GDP, says ONS
Graham Watson's insight:

A rare, but important entry to the Economic Method board, with the news that the ONS is looking at formalising alternatives to GDP such as inclusive income and wealth.

 

The latter are intended to capture things that GDP misses, like housework and other non-marketed transactions such as "Parents who take their children to events in their own car rather than a taxi, home-cooked meals and voluntary childcare and care of older relatives". Such things are included in Gross Inclusive Income (GII) but Net Inclusive Income (NII) is more volatile, taking into account the negative effect of wear and tear (i.e. depreciation) on household goods. 

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April 29, 2024 1:58 AM
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The Guardian view on rethinking economics: a discipline in disarray holds too much sway in the UK | Editorial | The Guardian

The Guardian view on rethinking economics: a discipline in disarray holds too much sway in the UK | Editorial | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
Editorial: Gordon Brown challenged Conservative ideas to fix the economy. His successors unfortunately will not
Graham Watson's insight:

An interesting Guardian opinion piece that argues that whereas in 2010, Gordon Brown had a genuine alternative vision to the economic policies being peddled by the Conservative Party, the current Labour Opposition doesn't.

 

It highlights the notion of post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory and one of the current fads - modern monetary theory - and suggests that both offer alternatives. But do they?

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Scooped by Graham Watson
December 7, 2023 2:39 AM
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Shopping with cash rises for first time in a decade

Shopping with cash rises for first time in a decade | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
People are using notes and coins as a way of budgeting while prices rise, says the British Retail Consortium.
Graham Watson's insight:

An interesting aside, in that the amount of payments made by cash has increased in the past month, with consumers keeping a closer eye on what they're spending. It's an interesting fact of economic life that people perceive budgeting to be easier if payments are made in cash. 

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October 10, 2023 2:13 AM
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Nobel economics prize awarded to Claudia Goldin for work on women's pay

Nobel economics prize awarded to Claudia Goldin for work on women's pay | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
American Claudia Goldin is only the third woman to receive the prestigious economics prize.
Graham Watson's insight:

Claudia Goldin has become the third woman to win the Nobel Prize for Economics for her work on women's pay over time, identifying those factors that have contributed to altering female participation rates in the labour force, and the effect of this on their wages over time. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
December 17, 2022 4:30 AM
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‘Unexpected item’: how self-checkouts failed to live up to their promise | Retail industry | The Guardian

‘Unexpected item’: how self-checkouts failed to live up to their promise | Retail industry | The Guardian | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
The kiosks promised to make life easier for shoppers and stores. Instead, they’ve done the opposite
Graham Watson's insight:

I've 'scooped' this because self-checkouts something that fascinate me. This article summarises many of my frustrations - and might get you thinking about the human resource and operational issues that are raised.

 

In the first instance, the rise of the self-checkout has also seen an uptick in shoplifting, which will affect supermarket revenues. Equally, despite the 'promise' of lower costs because of fewer checkout assistants, you still need to employ someone to monitor the self-checkout.

 

I would also add that I think that there's been no innovation in the sector, because supermarkets have little incentive to invest in them. They are good enough - but no more. Given the cost implications for the firms, I've often thought that shoppers using them should getting a tiny discount on their shopping..

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Scooped by Graham Watson
November 19, 2022 9:33 AM
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Can we trust economic forecasts?

Can we trust economic forecasts? | The Economic Method | Scoop.it
How much weight should we put on predictions from the Office for Budget Responsibility and other experts?
Graham Watson's insight:

A pretty fundamental question is posed in this article, and it looks at the record of the Office for Budgetary Responsibility in forecasting growth and borrowing, and reasons why, even though, forecasting is notoriously difficult it's currently form is infinitely preferable to what went before. 

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