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(Mediterranean Agricultural Information Network) Fostering cooperation and experience sharing among the national information systems on agricultural (cereals) markets in the Mediterranean. The network of 13 countries is coordinated by CIHEAM, and more specifically by its Mediterranean Agronomic Institute (MAI) of Montpellier.
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September 11, 2015 6:23 AM
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France/Blé tendre : 5,45 millions de tonnes écrasées en farine en 2014 (ANMF)

 En 2014, 5,45 millions de tonnes (Mt) de blé ont été écrasées par les entreprises de la meunerie française », a indiqué Pierre-André Masteau, secrétaire général de l'ANMF (Association nationale de la meunerie française), lors de sa convention nationale jeudi à Paris.
 
Au total, 4,27 millions de tonnes de farine ont été produites, un chiffre en baisse comparé à 2013 (4,38 Mt). 475.689 tonnes de farine ont été exportées, en majorité vers l'Afrique (62,8 %).
 
La meunerie est toujours le premier débouché du blé français sur le marché intérieur (17 % des tonnages commercialisés en France en 2014). Les unités de productions n'écrasent que 3 % de blés importés.
 
La panification représente 62,4 % des débouchés de la farine, un niveau stable comparé aux années précédentes. 28,2 % partent en biscuiterie et biscotterie (-1,6 % comparé à 2013), et 5,3 % en sachets (en baisse de 8,8 % par rapport à 2013).
 
Pierre-André Masteau a rappelé l'évolution en 2015 de son protocole d'évaluation des variétés de blé tendre en partenariat avec Qualitech, Arvalis, le Geves et l'Itab. Le nombre de variétés étudiées a été augmenté et le calendrier accéléré. « Cela permet une meilleure adaptation des listes ANMF au paysage variétal et aux attentes des meuniers », assure l'ANMF.
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September 10, 2015 6:10 AM
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Agricultural commodites still overvalued, says Macquarie

Agricultural commodities are still overvalued, despite prices falling sharply in August, according to Macquarie, which saw no bullish signs evident across agrimarkets.

The bank issued bearish outlooks for all commodities, citing harvest pressure and a poor global economic outlook.

The current macroeconomic backdrop, dominated by worries over China's downturn, and marked by emerging market currency devaluation, "appears to present more opportunities for excess supply in the market", said Macquarie.

"Unless there is a major weather event across major producing regions, the path of least resistance looks to be further downside through September," the bank said.

High production estimates issued by the US government, as well as worries about economic upheaval in China, sent most agricultural products sharply down in August.

In the short term, we struggle to find any strong bullish indicators across agri markets.

Favourable weather

Macquarie's agricultural commodity price index fell 7% month-on-month , with all core index components down.

"With the weather now favouring crop development, and allowing uninterrupted harvesting, markets have lost the weather premium which helped to support prices over the past two months," Macquarie said.

The largest falls in August's Macquarie price index was for vegetable oils, down 12%, and sugar, down 10%.  The animal feed index, which includes corn and soymeal, fell 8% while the staple grains index, which includes wheat, fell 4%.

'Strong prospects'

Macquarie took a negative outlook on wheat prices.

"Harvest pressure will keep wheat prices subdued, as expectations for production losses in core exporting regions look unlikely to materialise," the bank said," citing strong prospects in the EU and Black Sea, and downplaying fears of El Nino associated drought in Australia

But the bank warned on the effects of dry weather in Canada.

Macquarie maintained a bearish corn output due to US crop estimates, but noted uncertainties on Ukrainian and EU production.

Depressed prices

Vegetable oil prices were also seen as likely to remain depressed in the short run.

"Without a serious weather event across the key producing regions, a recovery in the vegetable oil complex before 2016 is unlikely," the bank said.

But Macquarie said that lower rapeseed production could squeeze vegetable oil supplies and support prices next year.

And for sugar prices, the bank warned that "neither economic nor fundamental factors look supportive for the market".

Global sugar stocks are ample, and the bank also notes a bearish risk from the prospect of a sugar export subsidy in India, which could push more product onto a glutted global market.
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September 10, 2015 6:09 AM
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Blé tendre : concurrence exacerbée sur le marché mondial (FranceAgriMer)

FranceAgriMer a publié mercredi ses premières estimations de bilans en céréales pour la campagne de 2015-16. Comme l'an dernier, les nouvelles récoltes de blé tendre sont bonnes au niveau mondial, si bien que le contexte est jugé baissier par les opérateurs.
 
« Les opérateurs soulignent la concurrence exacerbée sur le marché du blé tendre pour la campagne de 2015-16 », a précisé Olivia Le Lamer, chef de l'unité des grandes cultures chez FranceAgriMer lors d'une conférence de presse mercredi. Comme l'an dernier, les nouvelles récoltes sont bonnes au niveau mondial, si bien que le contexte est jugé baissier par les opérateurs. Le stock de report sur 2014-15 est de 2,5 Mt, un chiffre dans la moyenne des cinq dernières campagnes.
 
Selon FranceAgriMer, les opérateurs établissent à 11 Mt les exportations de blé tendre français vers les pays tiers (11,4 Mt en 2014-15) et à 7,7 Mt celles vers l'Union européenne (7,9 Mt en 2014-15). Les embarquements au 3 septembre vers les pays tiers au départ des ports français s'affichent à 1,7 Mt, essentiellement vers l'Algérie et l'Afrique subsaharienne. « C'est en ligne avec les deux campagnes précédentes », commente Olivia Le Lamer. Et de poursuivre : « Il y a encore la possibilité d'exporter 2,5 Mt au-delà des prévisions actuelles. » Pour cela, « il faut que la filière fasse ce qu'il faut pour aller chercher des marchés », insiste Rémi Haquin.
 
Le différentiel de prix actuel entre le blé tendre et le maïs pousse actuellement les formulateurs à privilégier l'incorporation du blé tendre. FranceAgriMer avance un chiffre de 5,1 Mt en 2015-16 pour l'incorporation de blé (4,4 Mt en 2014-15), 1 Mt pour l'orge et 2,9 Mt de maïs (en forte baisse).
 
Du côté du maïs, la collecte est annoncée à 11,1 Mt. Les stocks de 2014-15 approchent les 3 Mt. Les exportations sont annoncées à 5 Mt à destination de l'Union européenne, en forte baisse par rapport à l'an dernier, ce qui est logique puisque la disponibilité exportable est plus faible. Vers les pays tiers, les opérateurs tablent sur 0,2 Mt. Le stock de report devrait finir en baisse, à 2,6 Mt (2,96 Mt en 2014-15).
 
Pour le blé dur, la production progresse à 1,8 Mt contre 1,5 Mt en 2014-15, mais ne retrouve pas le niveau de 2,5 Mt d'il y a encore peu de temps. Les exportations vers l'UE sont estimées à 800.000 tonnes et vers les pays tiers à 400.000 tonnes. Le stock de report reste au minimum.
 
Quant aux orges, la collecte se situe autour de 10,6 Mt, avec un stock de 1 Mt. Les opérateurs envisagent des exportations vers les pays européens au même niveau que la campagne précédente, à 3 Mt. Vers les pays tiers, elles seraient de 3,6 Mt. Les embarquements au départ des ports français atteignaient au 3 septembre 1,5 Mt, ce qui est un « chiffre énorme », selon FranceAgriMer, du fait de la dynamique chinoise qui se poursuit. Le stock de report en orge serait de 1,6 Mt à la fin de la campagne de 2015-16, contre 1 Mt en 2014-15.
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September 10, 2015 2:57 AM
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CARTO n° 31: Article : Le blé, une céréale au goût géopolitique

CARTO n° 31: Article :  Le blé, une céréale au goût géopolitique | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

A voir dans Carto n°31, Article " Le blé, une céréale au goût géopolitique", Sébastien Abis, Septembre 2015. 

Le blé contribue depuis l’Antiquité au développement des sociétés et à l’organisation des relations de pouvoir. Si la demande se mondialise et s’amplifie avec l’augmentation démographique, sa culture reste localisée dans les territoires à la géographie généreuse (eau, sols fertiles, climat tempéré). Peu de pays possèdent de tels atouts et rares
sont ceux qui produisent du blé pour nourrir leurs populations et en exporter. Cette céréale est donc une question géopolitique.

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September 8, 2015 4:16 AM
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French Wheat Near 10-Month Low Still Can’t Lure Overseas Buyers

French wheat prices near a 10-month low still aren’t enough to entice importers.

While milling wheat futures in Paris rose for the first time in six days, they’re still set for a fourth weekly drop as a record French harvest has left silos bursting from Rouen to Dunkirk.

Egypt, the world’s largest importer, bought three cargoes of cheaper Russian grain in a tender on Thursday and the country’s state buyer hasn’t purchased French supplies since April.

“There is a heavy oversupply of cereals and no demand really to take it out of the market,” James Bolesworth, a director at consultant CRM Agri-Commodities Ltd. in Newmarket, England, said by phone. “French wheat in particular has come under a lot of pressure because the tenders haven’t been going to them.”

Back-to-back global bumper harvests have boosted supply and pressured prices around the world, sending benchmark futures in Chicago to the lowest since May. Demand for French wheat has also declined partly because Russian shippers can undercut competitors because of a weak ruble and lower freight rates.

Milling wheat futures for December delivery added 0.6 percent to 167.50 euros ($186.50) a metric ton by 12:09 p.m. on Euronext in Paris. Prices are down 3.3 percent this week and earlier Friday reached the lowest since Oct. 27.

Egypt Tender

Egypt bought 170,000 tons of Russian wheat after offers in Thursday’s tender were dominated by French and Russian supplies. While some French grain was priced competitively, Russian wheat was the cheapest when accounting for shipping costs.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, futures for December delivery rose 0.6 percent to $4.6825 a bushel after earlier touching the lowest since May 5.

Corn futures for the same delivery month were little changed at $3.6175 a bushel, set for a 3.5 percent weekly decline. Soybeans for November gained 0.5 percent to $8.7425 a bushel and soybean meal for December increased 0.4 percent to $309.30 for 2,000 pounds.
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September 8, 2015 4:09 AM
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Baisse généralisée des cours agricoles : l’Algérie augmente ses importations

Baisse généralisée des cours agricoles : l’Algérie augmente ses importations | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it
La baisse des cours agricoles enregistrée sur les marchés internationaux profite à l’Algérie qui a fait l’acquisition de 550 000 tonnes de blé lors d’un appel d’offre la semaine dernière, rapporte Reuters.

La semaine dernière l’Algérie réservait quelques 400 000 tonnes de blé à un prix variant entre 195 et 196$/t pour une livraison en octobre et novembre. Une commande qui a été gonflée ce lundi pour atteindre 550 000 tonnes selon les estimations de spécialistes cités par l’agence.


Alors que les besoins de l’Algérie tournent autour de 450 000 tonnes par mois, le pays a fait l’achat de près de 3 millions de tonnes de blé pour une livraison entre les mois de juillet et novembre, soit 600 000 tonnes par mois.

Les importations algériennes augmentent donc inversement à la tendance des prix observés sur les cours mondiaux, les productions américaines et françaises étant lésées par l’offre émanant des pays de l’Est.
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September 7, 2015 3:17 AM
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ASEAN ministers tackle food security

Sixteen ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will visit the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) on September 12 to strengthen agricultural cooperation and ensure food security across the region.

The visit is part of the 37th meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) hosted by the Philippines this year.

“It is high time for ASEAN member countries, which are in the largest rice-growing regions of the world to support the scientific research necessary for the sustainability of their rice sectors,” said Bruce Tolentino, deputy director general for communication and partnerships of IRRI.

Tolentino said IRRI is fulfilling its crucial role in providing the scientific foundation, technical support, and capacity-building to each of the ASEAN member-countries “in pursuing their own national rice and food security programs.”

Each ASEAN member-nation has its own strategy and approach in meeting targets in this area.

Some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, export rice, while the Philippines and Indonesia, among others, are rice importers.

Myanmar is on its way to regaining its agricultural competitiveness. In the 1950s, Myanmar led the ASEAN countries in rice exports.

Brunei and Singapore, on the other hand, do import rice, and only the best quality rice. Moreover, Singapore is making investments to become the ASEAN cen¬ter for biotechnology.

“So, each of these countries has differing approaches to achieving their food security goals. But all of these countries are bound together because there is a common ASEAN-wide framework for food security,” Tolentino explained.

That framework, according to him, which also includes a strategic action plan on food security, does not simply focus on strengthening the national capacity of each of the ASEAN member countries to produce any agricultural commodity, but also facilitation of trade.

The strategic action plan was conceptualized as part of the ASEAN member states’ need for a long-term agricultural development plan that focuses on sustainable food production and trade, especially in the context of problems brought about by the food crisis in 2007 to 2008.

The ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework, along with the Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security in the ASEAN Region, enables sharing of any agricultural commodity.

A close inspection of various countries reveals variation in natural resources for rice production. This is also the case for other crops and agricultural commodities.

“In effect, there will be a country agenda and there will be a regional agenda, tied together by trade. ASEAN countries could look at exporting high-quality rice to, say, Europe, for example. And Africa is a major growth area because of its rising demand for rice. All these topics, including IRRI’s support to the Philippine Department of Agriculture’s Food Staples Sufficiency Program will be part of the discussions during the ASEAN event next week,” he noted.

Aside from the 37th AMAF, the Philippines is also hosting the 15th AMAF Plus Three Meetings with China, Japan, and South Korea this year.

PNA
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September 4, 2015 10:49 AM
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Global trade in wheat flour holding steady

In its August quarterly update on global trade in wheat flour, the International Grains Council (IGC) left the total in prospect for 2015-16 unchanged, but made several major changes in export and import prospects for specific nations. For the total export prospect, the IGC placed the total for the current season at 13,500,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, the same as the initial forecast issued in May.

While this season’s prospective world flour trade would be down from 13,770,000 tonnes shipped in the prior season, it would exceed the outgo of 13,130,000 in 2013-14 and 12,650,000 in 2012-13. The record in world flour exports was 14,560,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent in 2011-12.

While holding its forecast of world flour exports in 2015-16 unchanged from a quarter earlier, the new IGC estimate included changes for individual countries. The most dramatic of those was in Turkey’s exports, which affirmed it as the top flour exporting nation for a number of years. Indeed, the council’s projection for Turkey’s exports in 2014-15 was boosted by 1 million tonnes to a level that represented 25.6% of global flour shipments. The revised forecast of Turkey’s exports in 2015-16 was up 900,000 tonnes from the quarter earlier to a total equal to 26.3%.

The IGC does not include exports of durum semolina in global flour trade, but makes a separate estimate for this volume. For 2015-16, durum semolina exports were projected to reach 350,000 tonnes, against 360,000 in 2014-15 and 350,000 in 2013-14. Adding this total to the wheat flour shipments produces an aggregate of 13,850,000 tonnes in 2015-16, compared with 14,130,000 in 2014-15.

As previously noted, the revised export estimates for Turkey, in the current season and earlier, show that country dominating global flour trade. At one time, Kazakhstan competed with Turkey for this leadership, but the revised figures show Turkey leading the world in every recent year except 2011-12, when world volume reached the all-time record of 14,560,000 tonnes (14,950,000 including durum semolina). In the latter year, Kazakhstan led with shipments of 3,652,000 tonnes followed by Turkey at 3,013,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent.
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September 4, 2015 10:45 AM
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French wheat prices slashed in bid for Egyptian sales

French wheat prices slashed in bid for Egyptian sales
French wheat sellers have slashed their prices in a failed bid for Egyptian wheat tenders, as the low cost of freight from the Black Sea allows Russian sellers to win sales once again.

In a wheat tender held on Thursday by Gasc, the grain authority for top wheat importer Egypt, French agribusiness Soufflet offered wheat at just $174.74 a tonne excluding freight.

This is $11 cheaper than an offer of wheat at $185.74 a tonne excluding freight made by Soufflet at the previous Gasc tender, held last Friday.

But even this aggressive bid could not undercut offers from the Black Sea, which enjoys cheaper freight to Egypt.

Gasc bought 170,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for an average of $188.02 a tonnes including freight, with prices for Russian wheat exclusive of freight down to $178.64 a tonne.
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September 3, 2015 8:47 AM
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Egypt's GASC receives offers in wheat purchase tender

The lowest offer in a wheat purchase tender by state Egyptian buyer GASC which closed on Thursday was $174.74 a tonne free on board (FOB) for French wheat, traders said. The offer was made for 60,000 tonnes, they said. No purchase has yet been made and results are expected later on Thursday, traders said. GASC is seeking shipment from Oct. 11 to 20. Black Sea wheat has dominated recent purchases by GASC. But Paris wheat futures touched contract lows on Wednesday and Thursday, partly on fears that French wheat was uncompetitive in export markets. Along with French wheat, offers were made of Ukrainian, Russian and Romanian wheat, traders said. There were no offers of U.S. wheat, they said. Traders said these offers were submitted to GASC in the first round of the tender on Thursday in dollars a tonne FOB: Shipper FOB Origin Tonnes Remarks Soufflet 174.74 France 60,000 Glencore 178.89 Russia 55,000 Bunge 178.91 Russia 55,000 Dreyfus 178.94 Russia 60,000 Venus 178.99 Ukraine 55,000 Granit 179.90 France 60,000 Vitol 181.88 Russia 60,000 Lecureur 182.50 France 60,000 Olam 182.70 Russia 60,000 Union Co. 183.13 Russia 60,000 Bunge 184.74 France 60,000 Bordeaux or Dunkirk BTG 184.75 Russia 55,000 Invivo 184.87 France 60,000 Cargill 185.60 France 60,000 Nidera 185.88 Romania 60,000 ADM 185.92 Romania 60,000 Alegrow 186.00 Russia 60,000 ADM 186.92 France 60,000 Traders also said these freight (ocean shipping) offers were made to transport the wheat purchased in the tender, in dollars per tonne: Freight Offer Destination NNC 9.00 Russia Union Co. 9.29 Taman NNC 10.69 Taman UME 9.48 Tuapse NNC 13.70 Nikolaev Venus 13.02 Nikolaev NNC 13.50 France In its last wheat tender on Aug. 28, GASC has bought 55,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat at $177.20 a tonne fob basis plus a $13.60 a tonne freight (ocean shipping) charge. (Reporting by Michael Hogan, Maha El Dahan, Valerie Parent and Gus Trompiz; Editing by David Holmes)
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September 3, 2015 3:52 AM
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Russia: in August, the deep-sea ports exported the record volumes of grains – Rusagrotrans

In August 2015, the volumes of grain transshipment for exports through the deep-sea ports of Russia totaled 1.965 mln tonnes (51% of the general monthly exports), which became the record index for the reporting month, declared Igor Pavensky, Deputy Director of the strategic management department of Rusagrotrans CJSC, on September 2.
He noted that the port of Tuapse exceeded the results of August 2014 in 4.7 times, and exported 235 thsd tonnes of grains, which set the absolute record for the reporting month.
Taman port shipped over 0.5 mln tonnes of grains, which became the historical monthly record for the reporting port. In August, the port of Novorossiysk exported 1.22 mln tonnes of grains, against 1.39 mln tonnes in the same month last season.
In August 2015, the export supplies of Russian grains will reach 3.65 mln tonnes, as opposed to 3.4-3.5 mln tonnes according to official data. Such differences are explained by the fact that due to the need for calculating of the export duties, traders register and export grain cargoes at temporary declarations, so not all grain volumes come to the official statistics, added I.Pavensky.
At the same time, the experts forecasted that in September, grain exports will reduce to 3.2 mln tonnes, due to the lack of traditional export activity in terms of significant RUR/USD fluctuations.
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September 3, 2015 3:51 AM
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Poor quality of US soft red winter wheat crop laid bare

The poor quality, as well as quantity, of the US soft red winter wheat harvest was laid bare in data showing that on some criteria, the crop rated at the lowest on data going back more than 20 years.

US Wheat Associates, which promotes US wheat exports, advised buyers "to ensure that their purchases [of US soft red winter wheat] meet their expectations" after highlighting the setback to the crop from unusually wet weather.

The crop, by volume, fell by 14.6% to a five-year low of 388.9m bushels (10.6m tonnes) this year, as a weaker yield compounded the dent from lower sowings.

However, the biggest impact from undue wetness was seen in quality, with excessive moisture fuelling the spread of fungal infections and, in ripe crops, spurring sprouting in kernels which reduces their milling specifications.

The soft red winter wheat crop, the type traded in Chicago, was, unusually, graded 3 overall – below the level needed to meet delivery against futures, without discounts.
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September 1, 2015 4:37 AM
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Egypt bans rice exports as of Sept. 1

Egypt will ban rice exports again as of Sept. 1 to satisfy domestic consumption, the ministry of trade and industry said Thursday. The ministry has yet to decide the duration of the ban, according to Sayed Abu Qomsan, a deputy to the minister.
Egypt is expected to produce 2.7 million metric tons (MT) of milled rice in the 2015-2016 season while its annual consumption is estimated at 3.6 million MT.  The 750,000 MT gap will be filled from existing stocks, the ministry said in a statement.
Egypt had allowed the export of its medium grain rice last October with an export tax of $280 per MT, on condition that traders sell the government one MT of rice at 2,000 Egyptian pounds ($255.43) for every MT of rice exported.  Thursday's statement said any export licenses granted according to the 2014 allowance could still be used.
Egyptian medium grain rice mainly competes with U.S. and Australian rice in Jordan, as well as Russian, Italian, and Indian medium grain rice on the Turkish market.  However, traders had argued the export tax and regulations imposed made exports non-profitable.
Indeed, official rice import statistics for Turkey do not indicate any Egyptian rice imports for 2014, nor for the period of January-June 2015.  There are no official figures available on Jordanian rice imports for 2015.  However, black market trade has happened in the past and is expected to continue in spite of the newly imposed ban.
Egypt first imposed a ban on exports in 2008 saying it needed to save the rice for local consumption and wanted to discourage rice farmers from growing the crop to save water. The government has used the tactic at other times as well, including a 2013 ban that helped the government build up stocks.
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September 10, 2015 6:14 AM
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Grain stocks in Russia reach 28.6 million tonnes

MOSCOW, RUSSIA — According to the Russian State Statistical Data (Rosstat), as of Aug. 1, the country’s grain stocks at farms, processing enterprises and elevators increased by 33% from July 1and reached 28.6 million tonnes. These stocks include carry-over grain from the previous marketing year and grain from the 2016 crop. The 2015 grain harvest began later than last year, and Russia’s total grain stocks are 6% lower than on Aug. 1, 2014.

The total amount of wheat reached 7.4 million tonnes, up 1.8% compared to 7.2 million tonnes at the same time last year. Rosstat said 5.3 million tonnes of the 7.4 million tonnes of wheat are suitable for food purposes.

Corn also increased 58% to 419,000 tonnes from 264,000 tonnes at the same time last year.

Barley reached 1 million tonnes, up 12% compared to 891,000 tonnes at the same time last year.
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September 10, 2015 6:09 AM
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Conseil spécialisé céréales du 9 septembre 2015

Le Conseil spécialisé de FranceAgriMer pour la filière céréalière, s'est réuni le 9 juillet 2015 sous la présidence de Rémi Haquin, nommé à la présidence du Conseil par arrêté du Ministre de l'agriculture, de l'agroalimentaire et de la forêt le 1er juillet dernier.
Retrouver dans un premier temps les Bilans prévisionnel Blé dur, Blé tendre, Orges et Maïs pour la campagne 2015/2015 - du 9 septembre 2015 présentés en séance.
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September 10, 2015 4:52 AM
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New: Release : AMIS Market Monitor n°31 - September 2015

New: Release : AMIS Market Monitor n°31 - September 2015 | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

"

Some policy developments of interest:


Wheat : 

>Egypt will import wheat from Ukraine in exchange for cotton. A new wheat procurement system starting in April 2016 should provide subsidies directly to farmers.


Rice :

> A ban on rice exports was introduced in Egypt on 1 September. The ban excludes broken rice varieties.

> On 4 August, the EU and Viet Nam agreed in principle on a Trade and Investment Agreement which includes a tariff rate quota for rice imports from Viet Nam. The legal text is yet to be finalised and approved.

 

Maize : 

> On 16 July 2015, the Biosafety Board of Turkey approved feed imports made of three maize and two soybean genetically-modified products. This will enable the release of previously blocked shipments and facilitate future soybean and meal imports. "



The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. It represents the collective assessment of the ten international organizations that form the AMIS Secretariat concerning the international market situation and outlook. Published ten times a year, the report aims at improving market transparency and detecting emerging problems that might warrant the attention of policy makers.


 

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September 8, 2015 4:19 AM
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Banque mondiale: Les prix alimentaires mondiaux à leur plus bas depuis cinq ans

(Communiqué de presse)Le dernier rapport Food Price Watch de la Banque Mondiale annonce un recul de 14% des cours des produits alimentaires sur les marchés internationaux entre août 2014 et mai 2015, leur niveau le plus depuis 5 ans. Les raisons d’une telle baisse, explique la Banque Mondiale dans une communiqué de presse que nous reproduisons ici1, sont liées à la faiblesse du prix du pétrole en 2014, à une offre alimentaire abondante et à d’excellentes perspectives de récoltes.

Pourtant, expliquer l’évolution des cours par le seul modèle offre/demande est aujourd’hui dangereux. Si les facteurs exogènes demeurent des facteurs déterminants, ils ne suffiront pas à expliquer l’hypervolatilité des prix, sans prendre en compte la psychologie des marchés et les dérives spéculatives. Car aujourd’hui, plus personne ne peut décemment affirmer qu’il ne sait pas qu’un retournement brutal et non anticipé peut se produire sur les marchés financiers agricoles. Et ce de l’aveu même de la Banque Mondiale pour qui « des fluctuations imprévues des prix intérieurs sont toujours possibles, de sorte que les pays doivent se préparer à des hausses de prix éventuelles et dangereuses. »

Finalement la seule certitude a trait à la volatilité intrinsèque des marchés agricoles. Comment alors s’en prémunir ? Si des actions ont été déployées à l’image des initiatives développées par la Banque Mondiale et citées à la fin de ce communiqué de presse, il est fondamental de passer d’une logique de gestion d’urgence de crises à une véritable logique de prévention, avec la mise en œuvre de mesures de régulation permettant de maitriser l’hypervolatilité des prix agricoles.

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September 8, 2015 4:13 AM
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Egypt: National project to build 60 silos to be completed in January 2016

Egypt: National project to build 60 silos to be completed in January 2016 | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it
In an interview with Daily News Egypt, Minister of Supply Khaled Hanafy spoke on the development of the subsidy system and the ministry’s recent projects.

What are the developments in the Global Logistics Centre for Grain project?

The ministry has completed the project from the technical side, and from the negotiations with investors side, who welcome the project and who are ready to participate. The project is now ready and in the process of issuing a presidential decree and so on. Most investors who have expressed their interest are Arabs and foreign investors, including 15-16 investors who expressed their desire to participate in this project.

What is new regarding the commercial register development project, which debuted at March’s Economic Summit?

The ministry submitted the project to the public private partnership (PPP) unit, and has been further submitted to the cabinet, which approved it. The preparation of the tender’s terms is being undertaken in coordination with the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology. The project will be launched soon to start implementation at a cost of EGP 1.188bn.

Will the government reconsider the Food Industries Holding Company’s (FIHC) listing on the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX)?

There is no listing of the holding company on the EGX, but what will be listed on the EGX is the increase of the company’s capital and the development of an investment plan. The capital increase will be issued depending on the EGX, not issuing shares. This will be done through financial, marketing and legal studies by global investment banks ,such as PWC Corporate Finance and Beltone Financial, which will be the main consultants in the preparation of the studies. The studies will take time to complete, and once finished, we will issue the capital increase on the EGX.

What is the update regarding the national project to build 60 grain storage silos?

The project will be completed by January 2016, and will be delivered at this time. In addition to this, the completion of modern barns for grain storage will be completed in the mentioned period. We have 25 silos built using a UAE grant, 25 silos using Saudi finance, and another 10 horizontal silos using Italian finance, so we have a total of 50 vertical silos and 10 horizontal silos. The UAE-financed silos have a capacity of 50,000 tonnes, with the Saudi silos have a capacity of 30,000 tonnes, and we will receive all of them in January next year.

The ministry achieved great success in reforming the supply commodities subsidies system. What will the ministry’s complementary steps be in the coming period ?

The ministry addressed the constraints of the supply commodities system and succeeded in managing the issue. Now Egypt has no bread crisis. We have developed the commodities supply system to the extent that the World Bank is, for the first time, documenting Egypt’s success story for publishing in international literature. Moreover, we saved EGP 6bn of bread. People can make use of this amount, in the form of points to purchase other commodities that they need more.

The next stage to which the ministry is moving is in achieving better equality regarding distribution of subsidies, as we want to achieve justice, as the imbalanced distribution that existed previously in Egypt still remains. However, we are targeting higher allocations for the needy, and that will happen by taking a stronger stance on citizens’ ration cards, which are frequently duplicated or not updated. The ministry is very interested in this step, which will be completed very soon.

What is happening with Egypt’s wheat imports. Is there a variation in import rates?

We enough for domestic use. The ministry is diversifying wheat imports, which are lower than previous years. For the first time in Egypt’s history, we have provided wheat imports of approximately 1.8m tonnes, a decrease rate of 40% of our imports. The ministry buys wheat from its source without resorting to intermediaries or the wheat import mafia, who were supplying wheat to Egypt, which happened in the last period, with the ministry instead becoming the wheat buyer itself.The processes of purchasing decisions are based on reading global markets and stock exchanges.

When will we reach self-sufficiency in wheat production?

This is not the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Supply; we are not the Ministry of Production, but a ministry for the distribution of existing resources. We provided a proposal, in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, to encourage production processes across Egypt, by changing the style of wheat farming, and this proposal is currently being studied.

Egypt’s Durum Wheat can be exported, although this has not happened yet. Therefore, we asked the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry to present specifications for Egyptian wheat, for the first time, because the wheat is not one type. Durum wheat is grown in Upper Egypt, and is used in the finest types of bread and pastries.

There is meant to be a clear plan for agriculture, encouraging the cultivation of such species of wheat, as the price of 1 tonne of this type of wheat equals nearly 2 tonnes of other types of wheat. Exporting 1 tonne of Durum wheat also equals the importing of 2 tonnes of other types of wheat, without increasing the cultivated lands for the crop.
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September 7, 2015 4:12 AM
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France/Cultures d’été : les productions en nette baisse, selon le ministère

« Les cultures récoltées à l'automne ont souffert des épisodes caniculaires et du manque de pluie du début de l'été », indique dans le dernier numéro « Agreste Conjoncture-Grandes cultures et fourrages », le service de la statistique et de la prospective (SSP) du ministère de l'Agriculture.
 
La récolte de maïs grain (y compris semences) atteindrait 13,7 Mt en 2015, en baisse de 27 % par rapport au niveau record de 2014. Le rendement et les surfaces diminueraient fortement. Le rendement du maïs grain non irrigué diminuerait de 13 % par rapport à la moyenne de 2010-2014. Le recul serait moindre en maïs grain irrigué (-4 % par rapport à la moyenne de 2010-2014). La surface totale de maïs (grain, semences et fourrage) reculerait de 5 % sur un an. Elle reculerait de 11 % en maïs grain et augmenterait de 2 % en maïs fourrage. Des parcelles trop atteintes par la sécheresse seront récoltées en maïs fourrage alors qu'elles devaient être récoltées en maïs grain. D'autres transferts pourraient intervenir, notamment en cas de manque de fourrage. La récolte de maïs fourrage devrait atteindre 17 Mt, soit 16 % de moins que l'an passé.
 
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September 4, 2015 10:57 AM
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FranceAgriMer: Publications RIZ des mois de juillet et août 2015

Publications RIZ des mois de juillet et août 2015 - - FranceAgriMer
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September 4, 2015 10:45 AM
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Canadian canola, wheat stocks larger than expected

Canada's stocks of major crops have fallen over the past year, but not by as much as investors had expected, official data showed, prompting an easing in canola futures.

Canada's canola stocks as of the end of July were seen by government agency Statistics Canada at 2.322m tonnes, down 23% year on year.

However, the figure was well ahead of market expectations of 1.0m-1.7m tonnes.

Last month the International Grain Council saw canola stocks at the end of the 2014-15, on an August to July basis, at just 1.1m tonnes.

Statistics' Canada noted that the decline in stocks was the result of a 46.5% decline in on-farm stocks, as commercial stocks increased 17.5%.

Wheat surprises

Canadian wheat inventories also came in ahead of expectations, with Statistics Canada showing the country's total stocks at the end of July at 7.108m tonnes, down 32% from the same time last year.

Expectations were for Canadian wheat stocks at 5.1m-9.4m tonnes, with an average estimate of 6.4m tonnes, putting the reported figure at the higher end of estimates.

Statistics Canada noted that the decrease from last year was driven by a 51.3% fall in on-farm stocks and commercial, which was "mainly attributable" to falling farm stocks in the province of Saskatchewan.
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September 3, 2015 8:48 AM
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GRAINS-Hard wheat futures hit 8-year low on plentiful supplies

U.S. wheat futures sank on Wednesday, weighed down by signs of abundant supplies and dim prospects for U.S. exports, traders said.

The front-month K.C. hard red winter wheat contract shed 2.5 percent and hit its lowest in more than eight years, while the most actively traded Chicago Board of Trade December soft red winter wheat contract touched contract lows.

The drop in wheat weighed on corn prices, which hit their lowest since June 22, while soybeans retreated on technical selling after firming early in the session.

A firm dollar, which makes U.S. commodities relatively more expensive to overseas buyers, cast a bearish tone across the sector. Dollar strength tends to hit wheat the hardest, as export deals for the grain are priced in local currencies.

The front-month K.C. hard red winter wheat contract ended down 10-1/2 cents at $4.48 a bushel. Prices bottomed out at $4.45-1/2, their lowest since April 4, 2007.

CBOT reported on Monday evening that were 184 new deliveries against the expiring K.C. September hard red winter wheat contract, reflecting the abundant supplies on the cash market.

CBOT December soft red winter wheat settled down 7-1/4 cents at $4.79 a bushel. Prices matched a contract low of $4.76-1/2 earlier in the trading session.

But traders said the declines were unlikely to drum up much interest from overseas buyers for U.S. supplies. Egypt's GASC, the top buyer of wheat, tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat after the closing bell. U.S. wheat was not even offered in the tenders issued by Egypt last week.
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September 3, 2015 8:47 AM
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UAE to complete 25 silos in Egypt March 2016 - Zawya Projects

UAE is to finish establishing 25 silos worth US$300 million in March 2016, chairman of the Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage (EHCSS) Mahmoud Abdel Hamid said.
01 September 2015
UAE is to finish establishing 25 silos worth US$300 million in March 2016, chairman of the Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage (EHCSS) Mahmoud Abdel Hamid said Tuesday.
Abdel Hamid told Amwal Al Ghad that the Emirati project aims at implementing silos in 17 governorates to add more than 1.5 million tonnes of wheat as storage capacity.

Chairman Abdel Hamid stated that EHCSS is establishing 11 silos while the Egyptian agriculture ministry is implementing around 10 silos.  In addition, the General Company for Silos and storage (GCSS) is establishing four silos

The Emirati project is to provide around 10 percent of the wasted wheat annually estimated at 2.7 billion Egyptian pounds per year.
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Wheat market finds fresh weather worries in Russia, S America

The world wheat market, having ridden out jitters over dryness in Europe and Australia, faced fresh concerns with a lack of rain raising questions over Russian sowings, while excessive wetness dogs South American prospects.

Russian farmers – whose grains production this year has far exceeded levels feared late last year, when a lack of rain dogged early development of winter crops – face another dry sowings period in many areas.

"It's very dry in an area stretching from the Ukraine to central Russia," said traders at a major European commodities house, which has substantial interests in the former Soviet Union.

"There are fears that this may delay planting in what is a fairly restricted window before the winter sets in."

'More precipitation needed'

The comments follow a caution from the International Grains Council last week that dry weather had already raised doubts over the extent of Ukrainian rapeseed sowings completed within the "very short" ideal sowings window of August 10-25.

"Plantings are officially forecast at 823,000 hectares, unchanged year on year," although below the five-year average 1.0m hectares, the council said.

"However, owing to dryness, fieldwork was estimated to be just 15% complete by August 21 – well behind normal.

"More precipitation is needed in order to secure timely sowings and prevent a likely steep drop in output."
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September 1, 2015 10:18 AM
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Latest FAO Monthly News Report on Grains Released | Food Security Portal

Latest FAO Monthly News Report on Grains Released | Food Security Portal | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it
Released today, the August edition of the FAO Monthly News Report on Grains features multiple announcements of 2015 crops exceeding weather-dampened expectations, with world grain stocks expected to hit a 29-year high according to the the International Grains Council (IGC).

The FAO Monthly News Report on Grains provides a collection of news articles on issues or factors considered critical in shaping the regional/global grains economy, as well as links to reports, statistics, and upcoming events.

France and Russia are expecting record wheat harvests, and India has reinstated import tariffs on wheat for the first time in eight years to encourage purchases of the country's ample domestic stocks. Iran is not planning to import wheat from the world market for what the USDA says is at least the first time in 60 years; the government corporation responsible for imports announced that current guaranteed wheat purchases and those to come before the end of the harvest in October will be sufficient to provide for the country's domestic needs.

Meanwhile, near-record output from the U.S. soybean and corn sectors in the face of an already glutted world market is expected to cause prices to drop as much as $1-$2 per bushel below production costs. Attempts by farmers to maximize their yields in order to meet their costs is expected to further adversely affect futures markets for these commodities. Even with the bump in U.S. corn, however, reductions in both area and yields expected to result in a three percent contraction in the global corn crop, according to the IGC.

For additional details on these stories and more, you can read the full Monthly News Report on Grains for this month and view previous editions here.
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