MED-Amin network

L’Office National Interprofessionnel des Céréales et Légumineuses (ONICL), a lancé un appel d’offres relatif à l’importation de plus d’un million de tonnes de blé en 2017. En provenance de l’Union Européenne (UE) et des Etats-Unis, dans le cadre des contingents tarifaires préférentiels.

Un contingent de 363.636 tonnes de blé tendre sera importé de l’Union Européenne (UE) d’ici fin avril 2017. Un deuxième contingent avec la même quantité de blé tendre à acheter des Etats-Unis au plus tard le 30 avril, en plus des 327.273 tonnes de blé dur pour fin décembre 2017.

L’année 2016 a été marquée par des récoltes mondiales historiques de céréales, à cause des prix du blé tombés à des niveaux très bas, déstabilisant les agriculteurs des deux côtés de l’Atlantique, qui risquent encore de souffrir en 2017. L’information est révélée par le Matin, dans son édition du 29 décembre. Le journal explique ainsi, qu’avec une récolte de blé énorme, évaluée cette année à 751 millions de tonnes dans le monde, les cours ont chuté à leur plus bas niveau depuis 2006 sur le marché de Chicago, baromètre mondial des prix, à quelque 145 dollars la tonne.

Le Matin rappelle que le secteur du blé est en crise en France et aux Etats-Unis, où leurs revenus ont chuté de 15% par rapport à l’année précédente et de 30% par rapport à 2014, selon le Ministère Américain de l’Agriculture (USDA).

« Nous avons connu plusieurs grosses récoltes d’affilée, et même si la consommation a augmenté, les stocks sont montés et les prix ont baissé», révèle John Newton, directeur stratégie et marché du lobby des agriculteurs américains, l’American Farm Bureau Federation, dans une déclaration à l’Agence France Presse (AFP).

À noter, que les stocks mondiaux de blé ont grimpé de 217 millions de tonnes en 2015, à 240 millions à la fin de la campagne 2016, et pourraient atteindre 252 millions l’année prochaine, selon le Ministère Américain de l’Agriculture (USDA).

Egypt’s GASC buys Russian, Romanian and Argentine wheat at tender

Egypt's state grain buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) bought Russian, Argentine and Romanian wheat its latest tender on Wednesday (December 21).

GASC purchased360,000 tonnes of wheat for January 20-31 shipment, at an average price of US$198/tonnec&f. This compares to prices of US$202.5/t in its previous tender (November29) at which GASC bought 240,000t of Russian wheat.

US wheat futures were little changed on Friday in light year-end trading, leaving the cereal market poised for an annual decline of more than 13 percent against a backdrop of record global supplies.

Corn was set to finish the year down nearly 3 percent after the biggest-ever US harvest maintained hefty supply volumes. Both corn and wheat are heading for their fourth straight annual decline.

Soybeans, however, will break a downward trend over the previous three years. The oilseed is on course to climb 17 percent over 2016. The gain reflects robust US exports and wider strength in oilseed markets that have countered pressure from big harvests and a rising dollar.

"The world has produced a lot of wheat and that has been reflected in prices during 2016," said Nathan Cattle, managing director of Clear Grain Exchange.

The US Department of Agriculture and the International Grains Council are each forecasting record world wheat production in 2016/17.

The huge output has led the USDA to project the biggest wheat stocks ever and contributed to an IGC forecast for record global grain stocks at a time when world corn production is also expected to reach an all-time high.

Big harvests in southern hemisphere exporters Australia and Argentina are contributing to ample international supplies.

A latest tender by top wheat importer Egypt on Thursday underlined the competitiveness of Black Sea origins, with Egyptian state grain buyer GASC booking 235,000 tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal said Wednesday that Algeria's foreign exchange reserves will fall by USD114 billion in late December 2016.

Speaking in a state-owned Algerian TV programme, Sellal said the situation is under control despite this decline in foreign exchange reserves, which is mainly due to the drop in oil prices since 2014.

The reserves amounted to USD190 billion USD in 2013.

Algeria's foreign exchange reserves were USD129 billion in late June 2016, before falling to USD121.9 billion last September.

By the end of 2014, foreign exchange reserves reached USD178.9 billion, and dropped to USD144.1 billion in late 2015, according to the data of the Bank of Algeria.

Algeria's debt, Sellal underlined, is estimated at three billion dollars, adding that it mainly consists of private companies' debts.

Agricultural prices in European food markets have become more volatile over the past decade exposing agribusinesses to risk and uncertainty. This study goes beyond the farm stage and explores through interviews the price risk perceptions and management strategies in multiple stages of the food supply chain. Respondents were farmers, wholesalers, processors, and retailers in six European food supply chains. Results show that price risk management strategies in EU food chains are diverse and well beyond traditional instruments such as futures and forward contracts. We further find that deviations of prices by more than 10–15% from expected levels were perceived as price volatility by a majority of the chain actors. This study provides new insights on price risk management, a deeper understanding of price risk perceptions and highlights the interrelation of price risk management decisions with other business decisions.

FranceAgriMer a accueilli une délégation de l’Office turc des céréales (TMO) conduite par son Directeur Général Adjoint, M. Enver SIMSEK, du lundi 12 au mercredi 14 décembre 2016, dans le cadre des échanges administratifs et commerciaux entre la France et la Turquie dans le secteur de l’agro-alimentaire. Le premier thème de cette visite d'étude portait sur la découverte du mode de fonctionnement de l’établissement FranceAgriMer, de l’organisation de la filière céréalière et du dispositif de l'aval. Les visites de terrain et les présentations régionales sont ensuite venues s’ajouter aux échanges au niveau national. Elles ont concerné la DRAAF des Hauts de France, les infrastructures logistiques du port de Rouen, Haropa et Sénalia, et la coopérative céréalière Noriap (près d’Amiens).

Les autorités turques formulent le souhait de monter dans leur pays une structure à l'image de FranceAgriMer et un dispositif similaire à celui de l'aval français. Au nom de la délégation turque, M. Enver SIMSEK a invité les personnes rencontrées durant cette mission à poursuivre ces échanges à Ankara.

wheat edged towards its
lowest in nearly three weeks on Thursday, falling for a fourth
consecutive session on ample global supply.
Corn prices were little changed, while soybeans were flat,
lingering near a one-month low.
The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade
dropped 0.31 percent to $3.98-1/4 a bushel - the lowest
since Dec. 2. Wheat closed down 0.93 percent on Wednesday.
"There is ample global supply of wheat, while the concerns
over the cold weather impact on yields in the United States were
probably overdone," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist,
National Australia Bank.
Despite edging lower, U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive in
key markets, underscored by the result of Egypt's latest tender.

Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, on Tuesday said
it had bought 360,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia, Argentina and
Romania in a tender, and none from the United States.

The most active corn futures were unchanged at
$3.47-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.86 percent in the
previous session.
The most active soybean futures futures eased 0.1
percent to $10.05-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 0.15 percent on
Wednesday.
Soybeans were under pressure as rain was forecast for
Argentina's dry crop belts, boosting South American production
prospects.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said exporters had struck
deals to sell 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, the
world's top soybean importer.

Over the ten months of 2016, turnover in the agriculture sector between Ukraine and Egypt has reached $1 billion.

Deputy Agrarian Policy and Food Minister of Ukraine on European Integration Olha Trofimtseva stated this during the Ukrainian-Egyptian Business Forum and a sitting of the Ukrainian-Egyptian Business Council with participation of Ambassador of Egypt to Ukraine Hossam Eldeen M. Aly and representatives of the Egyptian companies.

“Over the ten months of 2016, turnover in the agriculture sector between Ukraine and Egypt reached $ 1 billion. The main products of Ukrainian exports to the Egyptian market were grains and oilseeds. This country is the main 'gateway' for the entry of Ukrainian goods to other African markets. We are not only interested in the diversification of the commodity composition of our exports to Egypt, but also in the increase in imports of needed quality products from Egypt,” Trofimtseva said.

Ambassador of Egypt to Ukraine Hossam Eldeen M. Aly, in turn, noted that investing into the Ukrainian agricultural production, tourism industry, joint scientific projects, the development of cooperation at the level of government and joint trade missions could also become the main areas for fruitful cooperation between the two countries.

La Chine a bloqué le 16 décembre une demande des Etats-Unis pour un arbitrage au sein de l'OMC afin de régler un litige portant sur les soutiens accordés par Pékin aux producteurs de blé et de maïs notamment. Il s'agit d'une nouvelle étape dans la procédure lancée le 13 septembre dernier devant l'Organisation mondiale du commerce par les Etats-Unis contre la Chine. Washington a demandé l'ouverture de consultations au sujet de certaines mesures chinoises en faveur de producteurs agricoles, en particulier les producteurs de blé, de riz Indica, de riz Japonica et de maïs. Selon les États-Unis, ces mesures ne sont pas conformes aux règles de l'OMC. Les règles de l'OMC permettent à un Etat mis en cause, en l'occurrence la Chine, de bloquer la première demande d'arbitrage. En revanche, si une deuxième demande est déposée, le panel est automatiquement mis en place.

After the worst French wheat crop in decades this season, the European Union’s largest producer looks set to return to global export markets.

Output of soft wheat is expected to jump by about a third to 37.7 million metric tons in the season starting July, according to estimates from Tallage, publisher of the Strategie Grains report. That will lead production increases in the EU, lifting shipments.

"France should be back in the world market," Andree Defois, president of Moret sur Loing, France-based Tallage, said by phone. "The acreage planted in wheat by French farmers is slightly up compared with last season and also we are expecting a recovery to the yield trend."

The rebound is expected after a poor quality harvest and the smallest tonnages since 1993 following a deluge of rain in May and June, according to Tallage. France sold nothing to top buyer Egypt this season as exports have collapsed to the lowest in at least 16 years, Tallage said.

"Both volumes and quality are not good this season," Defois said.

Tallage forecasts output in Germany, the second-largest producer, of 25.7 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons. It predicts Poland will expand by 500,000 tons to 10.7 million tons. Harvests in the Benelux and Baltic countries will grow, too.

In order to complement the ongoing macroeconomic and safety net reforms in Egypt, it is important to foster additional sector-specific economic growth, especially in sectors that are good at creating jobs and reducing poverty. One sector that may help foster socioeconomic development in coming years is agriculture and related agro-processing industries. This paper shows that agriculture in Egypt continues to play a relatively important role in the economy compared to other mid-dle income countries. The sector’s stable growth performance has proved to be a reliable contributor to economy-wide output growth over the past decades. The underlying productivity gains have prevented the country’s food import depend-ency ratio from rising in spite of rapidly growing food demand.

In a world overloaded with wheat, Egypt is bolstering its haggling power. As the largest buyer prepares to tap international markets Thursday, traders will be watching how much of a discount it can get. On Dec. 20, the country’s state-run buyer paid an average of $1.73 a metric ton less than the offers it received, the biggest discount since traders boycotted tenders in September after officials went back and forth with regulations on how much of the common ergot fungus was allowed in imports.

A zero-tolerance policy on ergot, considered harmless in trace amounts, had led to rejected cargoes, fewer offers and higher prices at tenders earlier this year. That prompted Egypt, which needs to buy wheat for subsidized bread program, to return to international standards for the fungus to allay traders’ concerns. Now, with confidence restored, the country has the upper hand as exporters from nations such as Russia scramble to offload record harvests.

“Confidence returns over time,” said Charles Clack, an analyst at Rabobank International in London. “There are still overwhelming exporter supplies kicking about in the global market and being the No. 1 importer, Egypt is well aware of their strong negotiating position. Traders need a buyer.”

The urgency is growing. World wheat stockpiles will reach a record 235 million tons at the end of the 2016-17 season, about 6 percent above the year-earlier level and almost 1 percent more than forecast in October, the International Grains Council said last month.

Ideas that Argentina is harvesting a bumper wheat crop received a boost when the Buenos Aires grains exchange hiked its harvest estimate – although the country's supplies were signally absent from a high-profile Egyptian tender.

The Buenos Aires grains exchange - which with an Argentine wheat production estimate of 12.5m tonnes in 2016-17 had been one of the most downbeat commentators – hiked its forecast for the harvest, now 85% through, to 15.0m tonnes.

The upgrade - which took the figure above the forecasts of the International Grains Council and US Department of Agriculture, but remained more downbeat than last week's estimate from Argentina's own farm ministry – reflected an increased assessment of sown area.

Preliminary results of satellite images "included a larger area planted with wheat" this season, with the estimate lifted by 400,000 hectares to 4.7m hectares.

Area estimates were raised for regions including south eastern Buenos Aires province, and the so-called Northern Nucleus region, in the north central wheat belt, where the seedings estimate was hiked by 230,000 hectares to 730,000 hectares.

Le Parlement européen a adopté mercredi 14 décembre une résolution sur les outils de la PAC permettant de réduire la volatilité des prix sur les marchés agricoles.

Le Parlement européen a pressé mercredi la Commission de mieux protéger les agriculteurs de l’UE, de plus en plus soumis à la volatilité des prix et aux crises à répétition. Les députés, réunis en plénière à Strasbourg, ont adopté à une large majorité (445 contre 148 et 89 abstentions), un rapport de leur collègue française Angélique Delahaye (PPE) sur « les outils de la PAC permettant de réduire la volatilité des prix ».

1990s
This year's dismal harvest has not put French farmers off grains, with winter wheat sowings edging to their highest in more than 26 years – although dry weather has provoked a drop in rapeseed area to a four-year low.

France's farm ministry - in its first forecast for winter grain sowings for the European Union's top producing country - pegged them 7.34m hectares.

While down 57,000 hectares year on year, plantings at that level remain comfortably above the five-year average area of 7.04m hectares, with growers keeping faith with grains despite the persistent rains which sent this year's yields of summer-harvested crops tumbling.

Lobby group Coceral on Monday underlined the setback to France's grains production, estimating it this year at 53.73m tonnes, a 25% drop year on year, with the soft wheat harvest pegged at 28.13m tonnes, a decline of 31%.

Soft wheat vs durum

In fact, winter sowings of soft wheat, at 5.19m hectares, were seen edging 9,000 hectares higher year on year, to their highest on records going back to the 1993 harvest.