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Brexit will have "an enormous impact on agricultural markets", for its potential for encouraging political surprises in Europe, CME Group senior economist Erik Norland said, forecasting volatility ahead for the euro.

The direct impact of the UK's secession from the European Union, the process of which is set to begin in March, will be limited, given that the UK ranks relatively low in agricultural output and trade.

However, "Brexit is going to have an enormous impact on agricultural markets, not because the UK is a big agricultural producer… but what is more important is how Brexit is likely to impact the rest of Europe," Mr Norland told an investor call organised by Chicago broker Allendale.

European Union countries including France, Germany and the Netherlands will face elections in 2017, at a time when the Brexit vote, and indeed the election of Donald Trump as US president, have been voiced by many commentators as indicating, and even encouraging, the potential for unusual poll results.

"All of these countries are going to vote, and all of their elections have the potential to produce really big surprises, just like the Brexit outcome, or just like the election of Donald Trump," Mr Norland said

Les préparatifs de la prochaine conférence ministérielle du Centre International de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes (CIHEAM) qui aura lieu en Tunisie en 2018  » et la coopération entre la Tunisie et ce centre dans le domaine de la formation ont été au centre de la séance de travail tenue le 24 janvier 2017, à Paris, entre le ministre de l’agriculture, des ressources hydrauliques et de la pêche, Samir Taeib et le Secrétaire Général du CIHEAM, Cosimo Lacirignola.
Samir Taeib en visite de travail en France, du 23 au 26 janvier 2017, s’est également, entretenu avec la directrice générale de l’organisation mondiale de la santé animale(OIE), Monique Eloit sur la coopération entre la Tunisie et l’OIE dans les domaines de la santé animale, de la formation vétérinaire et la lutte contre la rage.
La directrice de l’OIE a exprimé, à cette occasion, sa satisfaction quant à la dynamique qui caractérise la coopération avec la Tunisie et des efforts déployés par les autorités tunisiennes pour assurer le bon fonctionnement de la représentation sous régionale de l’OIE pour l’Afrique du Nord, qui siège à Tunis.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 235 million tonnes.
 
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Jan. 19 raised its forecast for world wheat production in 2016-17 to 752 million tonnes, up from its late November forecast of 749 million tonnes and compared with the record outturn of 736 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 235 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous projection issued in November and up 14 million tonnes from 221 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC also raised its projection for total grains production to 2.094 billion tonnes, up from 2.084 billion tonnes in November, and up from 2.005 billion in 2015-16.

Total consumption was raised to 2.062 billion tonnes from 2.056 billion tonnes.

“Apart from barley, solid growth is expected for most grains, but with a particularly sharp increase in maize output,” the IGC noted in its report. “Led by strong gains in use for feed, but with food and industrial demand also rising, grains consumption is expected to exceed 2 billion tonnes for only the second time. However, a comparatively steeper increase in supplies will lead to a fourth successive year of stock building, including records for wheat and maize. Trade is seen declining slightly, mainly on the reduced need for imported feed supplies in China.”

On January 20 Egypt purchased 60 KMT of milling wheat from Ukraine with shipment during January 22 - February 3, 2017 at the price of USD 201.04/ MT C&F. The price at the previous tender equaled USD199.81/MT C&F, reports UkrAgroConsult.

The purchase included:

– 60 KMT Ukrainian wheat from Louis Dreyfus at $201.04/MT C&F ($188.74/MT FOB with a freight rate $12.30/MT).

At the previous tender, on January, 14 Egypt bought 235 KMT of milling wheat from Russia and Romanian with shipment during February 15–25, 2017.

More detailed information on tenders is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain & Oil" by UkrAgroConsult.

A weaker euro and healthy demand from importers such as Algeria are helping the European Union clear a reduced export surplus, while currency and logistical headwinds limit competition from big U.S. and Russian crops.

EU wheat exports are still likely to fall by about a quarter over the full season, forecasters say, after a dire harvest in France reduced quantity and quality compared to a record, good-quality, EU crop in 2015/16.

But despite the symbolic loss of the position of world's biggest wheat exporter it held for the past two seasons, the EU is exporting as much as could be expected in a global market laden with record wheat supplies, analysts and traders said.

"So far the EU export figures have been very robust in relation to the drop in production," Alexandre Boy of consultancy Agritel said. "The question in some ways is, aren't we going a bit too fast given what's available to export?"

Helped by brisk shipments of Romanian and British wheat in the first half of the July-June season, EU exports actually ran ahead of the 2015/16 pace until last month.

Britain profited from a slide in sterling to attract sales to Algeria, a market usually dominated by French wheat, while Romania has benefited from a resumption of regular purchases by Egypt after a standoff with traders during 2016 over quality specifications.

A broad decline in the euro against the dollar since late 2016, despite a rebound in January from a 14-year low, has improved the competitiveness of EU origins, including Germany, which is set to overtake France as the EU's top wheat exporter.

"Germany, Poland and the Baltic States look well placed for new export business," one German trader said.

"I expect busy German export port loadings in January, February and March as Germany moves wheat to Algeria in place of France, with Saudi Arabian shipments also expected."

European Union soft wheat exports will recover next season– but to nowhere near recent highs, Strategie Grains said, flagging a dent to production hopes from this month's cold snap.

The influential analysis group, in its first forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2017-18 pegged them at 26.5m tonnes.

That would be represent an improvement on the 23m tonnes expected for this season, which ends in June, but remain well below the highs above 30m tonnes seen earlier in the decade which promoted the bloc, the world's biggest wheat producer, to top rank in exports of the grain too.

EU soft wheat exports averaged 32.0m tonnes a year in the three seasons to 2015-16, European Commission data show.

World food prices ended a somewhat depressed year on a stagnant note, the United Nations said – although it prepared consumers for the potential for more volatile movements ahead.

Food prices were flat month on month in December, with a "sharp", 8.6% fall in sugar prices offsetting growth in dairy and vegetable oil values, said the UN food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Average values for 2016 fell for a fifth successive year, although by a modest 1.5%.

"Bumper harvests and prospects for staple cereals offset upward pressure on FAO's food price index from tropical commodities such as sugar and palm oil, where production was impacted by El Nino," the agency said

Les cours du blé et du maïs étaient stables mercredi en milieu de journée sur le marché européen, dans l'attente des réactions du marché américain à la vague de froid en Europe et aux Etats-Unis.

La chute des températures a engendré quelques rachats de positions mardi, « bien que l'on ne craigne pas pour le moment de dégâts significatifs au regard des températures et des niveaux du manteau neigeux en Europe », selon une note du cabinet Agritel.

Vers 12 h (11 h GMT), le cours du blé était à l'équilibre tant pour l'échéance de mars à 170,75 euros la tonne, que celle de mai à 173 euros la tonne. Seuls 4.430 lots avaient changé de main.

A la même heure, le maïs perdait 0,25 euro sur le contrat de mars à 168,75 euros la tonne, et sur celui de juin à 171 euros la tonne dans un volume d'affaires confidentiel d'à peine 115 lots.

Morroco's record wheat imports will be even bigger than previously thought, US officials said, responding to recent tender activity.

The US Department of Agriculture's Rabat bureau lifted its forecast of 2016-17 wheat imports by 500,000 tonnes, to 5.5m tonnes.

"This change is based on increasing import demand as a result of tightening stocks and the results of the most recent tender," the bureau said.

Tight stocks

Wheat production in Morocco plunged to a nine-year low last year, pushing imports to record levels.

Stocks have tightened dramatically, with heavy imports needed before the next harvest, which may be delayed due to slow plantings.

"As of January 1, 2017, Morocco estimates its total stock of common wheat at 150,000 tonnes, durum wheat at 60,000 tonnes, and barley at 100,000 tonnes," the bureau said.

"According to the trade, these stocks will cover domestic demand only through the end of February, and consequently, imports are expected to increase."

The Egyptian government is considering signing a currency swap agreement with Russia, following in the footsteps of its agreement with China in October, an senior Finance Ministry official told Al Mal.

China and Egypt on December 6 concluded an 18 billion yuan (US$2.62 billion) three-year bilateral currency swap, a move that importers and economists said would facilitate trade and improve foreign currency liquidity in cash-strapped Egypt.As Russia is one of Egypt’s largest trading partner, this agreement would allow the two countries to use local currencies in trade operations by pumping the equivalent amount of the currency of the exporting country into the accounts of importers from Egypt and vice versa, in order to relieve the pressure on the US dollar.The agreement is still under review by the Egyptian government before negotiating its terms with Russia. The government, however, believes its agreement with China has proved successful in its current, preliminary phase, which has encouraged Egypt to seriously consider its implementation with other countries, including Russia, the official—who preferred to stay anonymous—explained. Egypt and Russia had agreed on a similar plan in early 2015 suggesting the possibility of Russian tourists' payment in rubles while Egypt was expected to pay in the same currency for its wheat and gas imports from Russia.

The wheat harvest in Argentina has finished last week and the total out put was 15 million metric tons, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. The volume is 39 percent higher comparing to the previous year, when the harvest reached 10.8 million metric tons, and yields higher than the past five seasons.

When the total output is compared to the last five crops, the number is 33 percent higher. Export taxes and limits on wheat exports were eliminated in December of 2015 in Argentina.

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World wheat production will fall next season – but not by much, the International Grains Council said, with global area to see only a "marginal" drop despite the slump in US winter sowings to the lowest in 108 years.

The IGC, in its first estimate for the 2017-18 global wheat harvest, pegged production at 735m tonnes.

While a drop of 17m tonnes from this season's all-time high, a harvest at that level would still be the third biggest on record, and leave little potential for an erosion of inventories, seen entering next season at a record 225m tonnes.

"With the supply and demand outlook finely balanced, only a small contraction in end-season stocks is expected [in 2017-18]," the council said.

Wheat is the weed that feeds. The grain-yielding grass is such a hearty plant that it is grown on more land than any other crop in the world. After four straight seasons of record harvests, bins are bulging from Kansas to Western Australia and prices are near the lowest in a decade.

But there are signs the glut may not last much longer, or at least that supplies may tighten enough to halt the four-year slump in wheat futures. Farmers are planting less because many are losing money. At the same time, global consumption is at an all-time high. And the risk of crop-damaging weather lingers over key exporting countries this year.

“It’s difficult to be overly bullish,” said Benjamin Bodart, a director at adviser CRM AgriCommodities in Newmarket, England. “The world is still awash with wheat. You cannot deny it. But when you dig a bit further, the downside now is fairly limited."

While many money managers remain bearish -- they’ve bet on lower prices for 17 months straight -- wheat is expected to gain in 2017 for the first time in five years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts. Rabobank says there is a “real possibility” of a supply shock in the U.S. and Europe if farmers shift to more profitable crops, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts a stockpile drop this year of 8.4 percent.

It’s not difficult to see why the market slumped for so long. Wheat used in everything from bread to cakes and noodles thrives in all sorts of climates, and every few months there are crops being harvested somewhere in the world. Global production will reach an all-time high of 751.3 million metric tons once the current Southern Hemisphere harvest is complete, leaving stockpiles at 252.1 million tons, the most ever, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.