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As world wheat prices languish near decade lows, Russia looks set for another bumper crop.

Planted wheat has survived most of the cold season without major damage, suggesting the harvest may be the second biggest on record for the world’s top exporter of the grain, according to early estimates by researchers.

Farmers may gather 67 million metric tons, according to market researcher UkrAgroConsult. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or Ikar, pegs the crop at 67.5 million tons. Those would be the second largest after the estimated 73.3 million tons gathered last year.

Wheat prices traded in Chicago have fallen for the past four years amid bumper crops around the world and last year touched the lowest since 2006.

“Winter crop-loss forecasts do not exceed 3-5 percent for now,” Kiev-based UkrAgroConsult said in a report Tuesday. “Although this winter is colder than a year ago, it features mostly sufficient snow cover.”

Snow helps to insulate young growth from winter frosts, and the researcher’s estimate of dead plants compares with an Agriculture Ministry figure of 3.4 percent as of mid-April last year. Russia typically gets about two-thirds of its wheat from winter planting.

Abdel Moneim al-Banna, formerly head of Egypt’s Agricultural Research Center, on Feb. 14 was named minister of agriculture, part of a cabinet wide shake-up by Egypt’s parliament. He succeeds Essam Fayed, who had held the post since 2015.

As head of the state’s Agricultural Research Center, Banna was involved in agricultural and water resource management projects in coordination with Italy, France, the Netherlands and the European Union.

In his new role, Banna will oversee Egypt’s new system for inspecting agricultural imports. The system, which was put in place this month, is expected to help streamline the process for inspecting imports.

The Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation on Sept. 27, 2016, reached an agreement with SGS SA under which SGS will examine imported wheat to confirm it complies with Egyptian standards. SGS is a Geneva, Switzerland-based inspection service. The move signals a change from the way Egypt previously handled inspections. Previously, the inspections were carried out by six Egyptian officials, including two from the quarantine department.

Also on Feb. 14, Egypt’s parliament confirmed the appointment of three deputies in the Agriculture Ministry: Mohamed Hassan as deputy minister for agricultural reclamation, Mona Hassanein as deputy minister for animal resources and fisheries, and Safwat Hammad as deputy minister for agricultural services.

Government today fixed wheat procurement target at 33 million tonnes during the marketing year starting April as against 22.96 million tonnes purchased by FCI during this year.
 
The target was fixed in the meeting of State Food Secretaries held here to discuss procurement arrangements. It was chaired by the Food Secretary Preeti Sudan, said a statement issued by the Food Ministry.
 
"In consultation with the states, it was decided to procure 33 million tonnes of wheat during 2017-18 rabi marketing season, which is considerably more in comparison with the last season actual procurement of 22.96 million tonnes," it said.

Le ministère américain de l’Agriculture (USDA) a revu à la baisse ses prévisions de production mondiale de blé 2016-2017 dans son rapport mensuel publié ce 9 février 2017. Il table également sur une baisse des stocks de fin de campagne.

En blé, Le rapport de l’USDA prévoit des stocks mondiaux de blé inférieurs aux attentes des opérateurs, et en baisse par rapport aux estimations du mois dernier. Les stocks baissent de 4,7 Mt et atteignent 248,6 Mt : « Les plus bas niveaux pourraient être derrière nous », estime Gautier Le Molgat, analyste au cabinet Agritel, qui ne table pas nécessairement sur une hausse des cours, mais sur un arrêt de la baisse.

Fonte des stocks
Cette fonte des stocks de plus de 4 Mt est imputable en grande partie au Kazakhstan (–1,5 Mt) et à l’Inde (–3 Mt). Pour Gautier Le Molgat, cette prévision en baisse est une « surprise », tout comme la révision à la baisse des stocks de fin de campagne, accentuée par une légère augmentation des importations en Asie du Sud-Est (1,6 Mt).

Malgré cette baisse des stocks annoncée par rapport au mois dernier, le bilan mondial n’en reste pas moins lourd. L’USDA prévoit toujours des stocks de report supérieurs à la campagne de 2015-2016 de plus de 10 Mt et la production de blé reste à des niveaux records.

Même situation en maïs
Concernant le maïs, après la révision à la baisse des stocks européens par la Commission la semaine dernière, l’USDA revoit à son tour les stocks mondiaux à la baisse, et FranceAgriMer fait de même sur le bilan français. Le ministère américain diminue les prévisions de stocks mondiaux de maïs pour la fin de la campagne de 2016-2017. La baisse de 3,5 Mt est imputable en grande partie à la Chine, qui voit sa consommation augmenter de 4 Mt.

Enfin, en ce qui concerne le soja, la production (–1,2 Mt à 336,6 Mt), comme les stocks mondiaux (–2 Mt à 80,3 Mt) sont en légère baisse. Principale surprise, alors que l’Argentine voit sa production revue à la baisse, comme anticipé par les marchés, la production brésilienne est inchangée, alors que plusieurs données statistiques avaient amené les marchés à attendre une hausse de la production. « On peut imaginer sans mal que le Brésil compense ce que vient de perdre l’Argentine », commente Gaultier Le Molgat.

Egypt is looking to increase its domestic wheat production to 10 million tonnes from 8 million currently within the next three years, the agriculture minister said in a statement on Saturday.
As part of a strategy toward attaining self-sufficiency in the crop, Egypt will increase the total area planted and boost its crop yields while decreasing its own consumption, the statement said.

Egypt's strategic wheat reserves are sufficient for the coming four months, the supply minister said on Thursday.

In a statement, Minister Mohamed Ali Meselhy said that efforts are underway to diversify the sources of imported wheat to attract more offers at Egypt's international wheat supply tenders.

Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer.

In January, Egypt's trade ministry said it is easing the strategic grains imports regulations that were slowing down wheat shipments. The move came after an intergovernmental feud over wheat regulations cut- off Egypt from global markets, Reuters reported.

Russia boosted the quality of its wheat exports as farmers increased offers of better grain, according to a market consultant.

In January, wheat with protein content of 12.5 percent or more comprised 95 percent of overseas shipments of the cereal, Kiev-based UkrAgroConsult said in a report Tuesday. That’s up from about 40 percent at the start of the season, according to the consultant.

Russia, the biggest wheat exporter, last year gathered more low-protein grain than usual, an effect of a large amount of rain before and during harvest. Exports of that variety rose as farmers preferred to sell the cheaper grain first as bumper harvests in many nations sent prices to a decade low in August.

“There was a lack of high-quality wheat and that has gradually made its prices stronger,” Marina Sych, an analyst at UkrAgroConsult, said by phone. “Its offer on the domestic market has now increased.”

Prices for Russian wheat at Black Sea ports held at an eight-month high last week, according to data compiled by the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or Ikar.

High-quality wheat accounting for 95 percent of all exports of the cereal is normal for Russia, Sych said. It’s the type of wheat that Russia sells to Egypt, the world’s biggest buyer, and Turkey, she said.

Egypt has accelerated purchases from Russia, buying the most in at least four years at the latest tender on Jan. 26. UkrAgroConsult expects the pace of Russian exports to quicken as farmers sell out their inventories of high-quality wheat, Sych said.

To date, the European Commission is discussing the possibility of reducing the quotas for duty-free supplying of corn from Ukraine, declared the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Taras Kutovyi on February 3.
It is noted that since the beginning of 2017, Ukraine has already filled the quotas for the supply of corn to the EU at the level of 400 thsd tonnes.
According to T.Kutovyi, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy considers the EU's position as premature and completely wrong.
As a reminder, within frames of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement Ukraine can supply 36 commodity items to the EU without any customs duties and within the approved tariff quotas. The quotas for supplying of corn totaled 400 thsd tonnes.

a railroad train loaded with 720 MT of wheat from Kazakhstan arrived to the Chinese-Kazakh logistics cooperation base in the port of Lianyungang, the province of Jiangsu (East China). Then, after transloading, the wheat will be shipped to Vietnam by sea.

Thus, wheat of Kazakh production will for the first time come to the market of Southeast Asia through China, reports UkrAgroConsult.

According to estimates, wheat delivery from Australia to Southeast Asia takes 30 days against about 20 days for Kazakh wheat transit through China. At the same time, Kazakh wheat is $45/MT cheaper than Australian wheat of the same quality. Transit shipping through China will contribute to making Kazakh wheat much more competitive.

Kazakhstan intends to export about 500 KMT of wheat to Southeast Asia through China in 2017.

Argentine farmers are expected to harvest at least 15 million tons of wheat in the 2016/17 crop year versus 11.3 million in the previous season, Agriculture Minister Ricardo Buryaile said. Wheat planting in Argentina expanded dramatically when President Mauricio Macri eliminated export taxes soon after his December inauguration.
 
He was elected last year on a platform of dismantling the strict controls that the previous government had placed on Latin America’s No. 3 economy.

Just a year after Russia won the title of the world’s largest wheat supplier, it’s already in danger of losing it.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports this season for a second time, to 28.5 million metric tons. That’s closing the gap to the 27.5 million tons of shipments now expected from the U.S., which had its estimate raised by 5.8 percent.

With the ruble strengthening to the highest since mid-2015 and currencies slumping in the biggest buyers of Russian wheat – Egypt and Turkey – that’s adding to the cost of imports. Russia surpassed the U.S. for the first time in the 2015-16 season, after the devaluation of the ruble and a record crop boosted exports.

There’s “a real chance for the U.S. to come out on top” this year, Charles Clack, an analyst at Rabobank International in London, said by email.

The USDA cut its forecast for Russian shipments due to slower-than-expected exports, it said in a report. Russia had exported about 60 percent of the expected total by early February, compared with 80 percent achieved by fellow Black Sea grower Ukraine.

The current predictions, which are for the season ending in June, represent a 12 percent increase in Russian shipments compared with last year and a 26 percent gain from the U.S.

Le déficit enregistré au niveau des barrages dans tout le pays atteint, jusqu’au 6 février 2017, 281 millions de mètres cubes, avec des réserves qui n’ont pas dépassé 939 millions de m3, contre une moyenne nationale au cours des trois dernières années, de l’ordre de 1220 millions de m3, a indiqué Abdallah Rabhi, secrétaire d’Etat chargé des ressources hydrauliques et de la pêche, dans une interview accordée à l’agence TAP.
« Le taux de remplissage des barrages situés surtout dans le Nord-Ouest reste faible: Sidi Salem (Béja) n’est rempli qu’à 25% de sa capacité générale, Mellègue, à 35%, Bouhertma (Jendouba), à 34%, Joumine, à 37% et Sejnane, à 61% (Bizerte). Le manque de pluie se répercute grandement sur l’approvisionnement des barrages, le taux est inférieur à ces chiffres dans certains barrages dont celui de Houareb (Kairouan), rempli à seulement 7% », a-t-il ajouté.
Le niveau de l’eau à Sidi Salem, le plus grand barrage en Tunisie reste désespérément bas
Le taux de remplissage du Barrage de Sidi Salem, le plus grand barrage en Tunisie est au 6 Février courant, de 132 millions de m3, contre 411 millions de m3, à la même période en 2016, alors que sa capacité de remplissage dépasse les 540 millions de m3. Toutefois, la saison des pluies n’est pas encore achevée et se poursuivra jusqu’au mois d’avril, a rappelé le secrétaire d’Etat.
 » L’Etat fournit de grands efforts pour maitriser et gérer les réserves en eau surtout après les années 2015 et 2016 qui ont connu des faibles précipitations. Une commission relevant du ministère de l’agriculture, est chargée du suivi de cette situation et de la mise en place de tous les scénarios possibles ainsi que des solutions y afférentes ».
Outre le fait que les dernières pluies n’ont pas été enregistrées dans les régions des barrages, les deux dernières années successives de déficit pluviométrique, ont mis à sec plusieurs barrages, qui ont entamé l’été dernier avec des réserves nulles. Les précipitations enregistrées au cours de cette année non suffisantes pour le remplissage des barrage, ont toutefois, été bénéfiques pour l’agriculture tunisienne et ont permis de diminuer les besoins en irrigation. C’est pour cela que la prochaine saison sera une grande saison pour les grandes cultures, les oliveraies et les agrumes.
Le secrétaire d’Etat a fait savoir que les précipitations sur tout le pays, sont d’une moyenne annuelle de 36 milliards de m3, dont seulement 4,8 milliards peuvent être exploités pour les barrages et les forages. Cette situation est marquée par une grande variabilité selon les années et les quantités de pluie enregistrées chaque année.

Les cours des céréales étaient orientés à la hausse mercredi en milieu de journée, tirés par la nouvelle baisse du cours de l'euro par rapport au dollar, qui renforce l'attractivité des marchandises européennes.

Peu avant 13 h (12 h GMT), la tonne de blé reprenait 50 centimes d'euro sur mars à 170,25 euros et 75 centimes d'euro sur mai à 171,50 euros, dans un volume d'échanges de près de 10.000 lots.

« Ça se raffermit un peu. On a l'euro sur des niveaux un peu plus bas, donc ça pousse un peu chez nous et comme Chicago est remonté hier, on embraye le pas », commentait un analyste du cabinet Inter-Courtage, qui évoquait à ce sujet des transactions de soja par des acheteurs chinois qui ont tiré les cours de l'ensemble des céréales et oléagineux à Chicago.

« Les marchés trouvent un peu de soutien dans les conditions climatiques rigoureuses qui sévissent sur le bassin de la mer Noire, bien que cela soit à relativiser, les faibles couvertures neigeuses se concentrant sur le sud de l'Ukraine, peu productrices de céréales d'hiver », notait pour sa part le cabinet Agritel.

La tonne de maïs, elle, progressait de 75 centimes sur mars, à 172,75 euros et de 50 centimes sur juin à 173,25 euros, avec près de 800 lots échangés.

Spanish grain production is unlikely to see the same problems as dogged its vegetable production, as rains replenish reservoirs after a dry spell.

The Spanish consultancy Agroinfomarket forecast wheat production to ease next season, thanks to a slight drop in planted areas.

Soft wheat production was seen at 6.07m tonnes, down from 6.71m tonnes in the 2016 harvest, thanks to a 10,000 drop in planted area to 1.791m hectares.

Jose Murillo at Agroinfomarket said the production was "very tentative", being based on historical trends, leaving room for weather effects.

All grain production to fall

And for durum, production was seen falling to 932,000 tonnes, from 989,000 tonnes last season.

Barley production was seen at 7.73m tonnes, down from 9.46m tonnes last season.

Corn production was also seen down a touch 129,000 tonnes, at 3.49m tonnes.