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Russian wheat export prices rose last week, supported by a strong rouble and demand from Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, analysts said on Monday.
Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content for March delivery were $192 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $1 from the previous week, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said.
SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, quoted FOB wheat at $192.5 a tonne at the end of last week, up $1 from a week earlier, and said maize (corn) prices were $1 higher at $179 a tonne.
Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC bought 535,000 tonnes of wheat, including 235,000 tonnes of Russian origin, in a tender on Feb 28.
Demand for Russian wheat was also supported by customers who switched to Russian origin grain from Ukrainian origin, SovEcon said.
Russia exported 24.6 million tonnes of grain between July 1 and March 1, down 3.5 percent from a year earlier, including 19.0 million tonnes of wheat, the agriculture ministry said.
The country harvested a record crop of 120.7 million tonnes of grain in 2016, up from a previously estimated 119.1 million tonnes, the state statistics service Rosstat said last week.

Ideas of a recovery in the European Union wheat harvest this year received a boost with crop reports from two of the bloc's top three wheat-producing nations, although there is a diverging picture on spring sowings progress.

FranceAgriMer - crop bureau for France, the EU's top grain-growing country – pegged at 93% the proportion of the domestic soft wheat crop rated in "good" or "excellent" condition as of Monday, a figure unchanged week on week.

For winter barley, the rating was 90%, unchanged week on week, although the durum figure, at 82% was down 3 points week on week.

Although all three figures were a little below those of a year ago, they are still well within territory pointing to decent yield prospects – assuming no repeat of 2016's poor summer weather, which devastated the quality and quantity of France's summer-harvested grains.

A strong start to French and German spring barley sowings, coupled with a benign winter, has dented Europe's malting barley premiums – at a time when the North American market is being undermined by brewer retreat too.

Premiums on European spring malting barley fell back by nearly E4 a tonne last week, "as growers in France and Germany began their sowing campaigns early", traders at a major European commodities house said.

"With perfect drilling conditions being reported widely across the continent, it is expected that they will experience further downward pressure on premiums."

French spring barley sowing as of February 20 were 17% complete, up from 6% as of the same data last year, according to FranceAgriMer.

Wheat demand from UK biofuels plants will remain strong for a few months yet, the AHDB bureau said, after officials cut their forecast for domestic stocks of the grain, implying a sharp slowdown in exports ahead.

"Continued strong demand [for wheat] from the bioethanol industry is expected to remain until the end of the [2016-17] season," in June, the AHDB said.

The comments come amid improved conditions for ethanol producers, which spurred CropEnergies - which owns UK-based Ensus, which with nearby Vivergo is one of Europe's top biofuels plants – last month to raise its profits forecast.

"The main reasons for the better earnings situation are the spot prices for bioethanol which continue to be significantly higher than the previously expected forward prices," CropEnergies said at the time.

"With this, CropEnergies strengthens its position as leading bioethanol producer in the EU."

Il en est le président depuis sa création. Cela fait plus de vingt ans que Jean-François Gleizes est à la tête du comité de pilotage de la filière blé dur, sorte d'interprofession qui, des producteurs jusqu'aux industriels — stockeurs, importateurs et exportateurs — met autour de la table tous les acteurs. Depuis deux ans a été mis en place un plan de relance, né du constat d'une baisse de production nationale avec, pourtant, des marchés de proximité à nos portes : Italie, Maghreb… «Ce plan, aujourd'hui porté par France AgriMer, l'office des céréales, détaille les éléments à mettre en œuvre pour une production régulière, de qualité, ce qui suppose, bien entendu que tout le monde en tire un revenu. Au-delà des volumes, des surfaces, on en arrive à la question du prix payé au producteur», explicite Jean-François Gleizes. Ce plan, entré en vigueur l'an dernier, a connu, cette année, un revers lié aux intempéries qui ont sévi notamment dans la région Centre. «Nous voudrions doubler la production nationale, cette année nous avons seulement réussi à ne pas la baisser», constate le responsable. Un contexte compliqué, donc, qui a amené la profession à réfléchir à des solutions pour stabiliser la production et, par là, mieux développer la filière. C'est ce dont on a débattu, il y a quelques jours, aux Sables-d'Olonne où le comité s'est réuni, dans un contexte de prix déprimés – il n'est aujourd'hui que de 190 € la tonne. «Le problème c'est qu'il n'y a pas de prix du blé dur, celui-ci se cale sur celui du blé tendre, sachant que le blé dur, c'est 2 millions de tonnes en France quand le blé tendre, c'est 30.

Les récentes précipitations augurent d’une bonne campagne agricole. [...] Plus en détail, le ministère précise que le cumul pluviométrique moyen national s’élevait, au 27 février 2017 à 6 heures, à 287 mm, soit +7% par rapport à la normale (264 mm) et +136% par rapport à la campagne précédente (122 mm).

Paradoxalement, la réserve des barrages à usage agricole a connu une légère baisse par rapport à l’année dernière. Elle a atteint 7,32 milliards de m3 contre 7,88 milliards de m3 à la même date lors de la campagne précédente, soit un taux de remplissage de 54% contre 59%. Ce résultat s’explique par le niveau de réserve des barrages au démarrage de la campagne précédente qui bénéficiait des retenues de la campagne antérieure qui était pluvieuse. Face à ces prémices favorables, le ministère de l’Agriculture a pris, dans le cadre du Plan Maroc vert, toutes les dispositions nécessaires permettant d’assurer la disponibilité des intrants agricoles et la mobilisation des agriculteurs et de tous les acteurs du secteur pour la réussite de la campagne. Ainsi, l’approvisionnement en intrants agricoles a été assuré en quantités suffisantes et de bonne qualité. Les semences certifiées de céréales ont été mobilisées à hauteur de deux millions de quintaux, réparties à hauteur de 75% de blé tendre, 18% de blé dur et 7% d’orge. Les ventes globales de semences certifiées ont totalisé plus de 1,66 million de quintaux contre 1,09 million lors de la campagne agricole précédente à la même date. Pour les engrais, le marché est actuellement bien approvisionné. Le programme de l’actuelle campagne porte sur plus de 500.000 tonnes.

Deux facteurs sont en train de se conjuguer pour donner un ballon d’oxygène à la balance commerciale céréalière de la Tunisie, un marché mondial excédentaire et une pluviométrie favorable dans les pays importateurs de l’Afrique du Nord, la Tunisie, l’Algérie, le Maroc, l’Egypte et la Libye où la production devrait augmenter du quart, ce qui signifie que les achats céréaliers à l’étranger baisseront, selon le centre de recherche AgResource Co basé à Chicago.

Alors que la demande mondiale sur le blé n’a jamais été plus grande, la production a augmenté encore plus rapidement, et les prix ont chuté pendant quatre années consécutives. Succédant à un cycle de sécheresse ayant gravement compromis les grandes cultures en Afrique du Nord l’année l’année dernière, les pluies et les températures douces vont aider au développement des céréales cette saison, selon un rapport de l’Unité de suivi des ressources agricoles de l’Union européenne. Et les monnaies les plus faibles des pays de la région par rapport au dollar pourront raboter les importations.

World corn output will fall next season, undermined by weaker Chinese and US sowings, the International Grains Council said - flagging the prospect of some decline in inventories of the grain,

The intergovernmental group, in its first forecasts for global corn production in 2017-18, pegged it at 1.023bn tonnes – a drop of 26m tonnes year on year, although still the second highest harvest on record.

The estimate reflects expectations of a 1.8m-hectare decline in world sowings of the grain, to 181.2m acres, as declined in China, South America and the US offset increases expected in the European Union and the former Soviet Union, where improved seed quality is encouraging expansion.

"The upswing in the US is likely to continue, with increased seedings expected in Ukraine and Russia," the IGC said.

As if the global wheat surplus couldn’t get much worse, some of the biggest buyers may not need as much. That could swell stockpiles already expected to be the biggest ever.

Countries in North Africa like Egypt and Algeria -- all dependent on foreign wheat to help keep their populations fed -- probably will harvest 25 percent more on their own farms this year if the weather is as favorable as expected, the International Grains Council estimates. That means imports from the region could drop from a record high to a three-year low, according to Chicago-based researcher AgResource Co.

While global demand for wheat has never been bigger, output has risen even faster, and prices have plunged for four straight years. After droughts in North Africa hurt domestic crops last year, rain and mild temperatures will aid grain development this season, according to a report last month from the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit. And the region’s weaker currencies against the dollar may further erode imports.

Russian wheat prices, whose strength in dollar terms has been a big prop to world values, are poised for decline, Black Earth Farming said, as the group unveiled a return to a loss for what is set to be its last full year as an independent company.

The farm operator in Russia's central, black earth region flagged a double whammy to the country's wheat values - from the "absence" of domestic buyers, which have already stockpiled 18% more of the grain than a year ago, besides the "current disappointing pace of exports".

The rouble's revival of some 30% over the past year, fuelled by oil price recovery, has reduced the competitiveness of the country's exports of goods including wheat.

While merchants have attempted to offset the rouble's strength by cutting prices, the effort has snagged on farmers' unwillingness to accept weaker values, which are down 16% year on year in the black earth region, Black Earth Farming said.

The hit to volumes has prompted a series of downgrades to forecasts for Russian wheat exports in 2016-17 - most lately from the International Grains Council, which on Thursday cut its estimate by 500,000 tonnes to 28.0m tonnes.

Australian wheat production and exports will fall back from record levels next season, the country's crop forecaster said, as competition from other crops reduces planted area, and conditions return to normal.

But Abares lifted its forecast for exports in the current season, citing brisk demand from India, which is struggling with a domestic shortage.

"Record production is expected to boost export shipments in 2016–17," Abares said, lifting its export forecast season to a record large 22.8m tonnes, 400,000 tonnes higher than its last forecast, made in December.

The crop body also forecast sluggish markets in 2017-18, with the wheat price at a six-year low in real terms, thanks to heavy world stocks.

Egypt has reached an agreement with private rice mills to produce white rice, potentially ending a standoff over the buying price of last year's crop that has led to millions of tonnes of paddy sitting idle since the harvest.
The supply ministry said this week it had agreed to pay private mills 6.3 Egyptian pounds ($0.3784) per kilogram of white rice, which the government would then sell at its outlets for 6.5 Egyptian pounds.
Farmers last year refused to sell government mills their crops despite a plentiful harvest, arguing that the buying price of 2,400 Egyptian pounds ($270.27) per tonne of rice paddy was too low.
The new agreement means that private mills will instead buy up the paddy at the current market price of about 4,200 Egyptian pounds before selling it on to the government.
Last year, the long held paddy stocks forced up local rice prices and intermittently made supplies at government outlets scarce, forcing state grain buyer GASC to import 75,000 tonnes of medium grain rice despite a local surplus and a hard currency shortage.
Egypt's annual consumption of rice paddy is about 3.95 million tonnes whereas production is about 5.1 million tonnes, according to a United States Department of Agriculture report.

he world's biggest buyer of wheat is on a spending spree that helped send prices to their biggest monthly gain in more than a year. But some analysts are warning the frenzy is about to end.
While Egypt has recently accelerated purchases, the country will likely slow buying in April and May as the local harvest gets underway. Plus, there's still too much supply with mega harvests coming from Russia, Argentina and Australia, and stockpiles are set for reach another record.
'We're certainly not expecting prices to rally rapidly, since global stocks remain burdensome, said Charles Clack, an analyst at Rabobank International in London. He forecasts Chicago futures to end the year at 4.85 a bushel, about 7% above current levels.
Wheat futures in Chicago have jumped 18% from a decade low in August, helped by a broader rebound in commodities and data showing that US farmers planted the least winter wheat in a century. But there's still a big overhang on the market, with stockpiles estimated to reach a record 236mn metric tons in the 2016-17 season, according to the International Grains Council.
'I would be hesitant to say that this is turning around the dominant tendencies of oversupply, said Wibke Baars, a consultant at Paris-based Agritel. 'Supply is too comfortable now and it will take a weather disruption to make the rally sustain, which we are not seeing so far.

L'Union Européenne va lancer deux nouveaux observatoires des prix d'ici l'été, pour les céréales et le sucre, a annoncé jeudi le Commissaire européen à l'Agriculture, Phil Hogan à Paris. 
"L'observatoire sera mis en place en juillet" et fonctionnera "avant la fin septembre, lorsque les quotas de sucre toucheront à leur fin", a déclaré M. Hogan, en visite au salon de l'Agriculture à Paris, afin d'être "plus conscient des réalités" du marché. L'Union Européenne avait déjà mis en place deux observatoires des prix pour le lait et la viande, lors des récentes crises de l'élevage laitier et bovin. Il a profité de son passage à Paris pour rappeler que l'UE allait adopter une nouvelle réforme de la PAC d'ici la fin 2017. La consultation lancée le 2 février sur le sujet est "encore ouverte pendant huit semaines", a-t-il rappelé, et a reçu 11.000 réponses à ce jour. 

World corn output will fall next season, undermined by weaker Chinese and US sowings, the International Grains Council said - flagging the prospect of some decline in inventories of the grain,

The intergovernmental group, in its first forecasts for global corn production in 2017-18, pegged it at 1.023bn tonnes – a drop of 26m tonnes year on year, although still the second highest harvest on record.

The estimate reflects expectations of a 1.8m-hectare decline in world sowings of the grain, to 181.2m acres, as declined in China, South America and the US offset increases expected in the European Union and the former Soviet Union, where improved seed quality is encouraging expansion.

"The upswing in the US is likely to continue, with increased seedings expected in Ukraine and Russia," the IGC said.

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Paris wheat futures touched a seven-month high after France, at last, gained an order of the grain from Gasc, as the Egyptian group extended one of the biggest purchasing sprees in its history.

Paris wheat for March gained 1.3% at one point on Wednesday to touch E174.50 a tonne for the first time, for a spot contract, since July last year.

The gain was supported by a strong performance by wheat futures in Chicago, and the purchase by Cairo-based Gasc, grain authority for the world's top wheat importing country, of 120,000 tonnes of French supplies, amid a 535,000-tonne order.

The order was Gasc's first for 2016-17 of French wheat – which was the authority's top origin two years ago, despite the extra cost of shipping grain to Egypt from France, compared with from the Black Sea ports of Romania, Russia or Ukraine.

"Traders were positive about this first trade to Egypt, allowing wheat [futures] to go up," Paris-based consultancy Agritel said.

While Russian wheat, backed by a boost to supplies from a record harvest last year, has dominated Gasc purchases so far this season - accounting for 3.6m tonnes of the 5.1m tonnes purchased – the rise in the rouble, up more than 5% this year against the dollar, has undermined its competitiveness.