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Actualités des filières, information économique, réflexion et accompagnement stratégiques… tous les événements importants de cette année marquée par les crises agricoles sont repris dans le rapport d’activité, qui se fait l’écho de l’engagement de l’établissement auprès de tous acteurs des filières.

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Le secteur agroalimentaire était l'une des priorités des Européens, pressés de trouver des débouchés à leurs agriculteurs sur un marché japonais en pleine  expansion.

Au final, 85 % des produits agroalimentaires de l'UE, comme le vin ou la viande de porc transformée, pourront entrer au Japon sans droits de douane, mais parfois à l'issue de périodes de transition. D'autres, comme le bœuf, verront les taxes imposées progressivement réduites. Le riz est exclu de l'accord. Les Japonais s'engagent à reconnaître plus de 200 indications géographiques, comme le Roquefort, le Tiroler Speck autrichien, le Jambon d'Ardenne belge ou la Polska Wódka, qui bénéficieront « du même niveau de protection qu'en Europe ».

Les négociations ont été particulièrement complexes sur les produits laitiers, secteur sensible pour Tokyo, notamment pour faire baisser les taxes très élevées imposées sur les fromages européens. L'accord éliminera les droits de douanes sur plusieurs fromages, mais la période de transition pourra atteindre 15 ans.

Les cours du blé ont réussi de justesse à rester en hausse mercredi au retour d'un jour férié et après leur envolée entamée la semaine précédente, tandis que le soja et le maïs ont également progressé.

« Le blé a fluctué (...) mais rien n'a vraiment changé », a commenté Dax Wedemeyer de US Commodities. « Le blé était en hausse en début de séance mais il y a eu l'annonce d'un achat par l'Egypte de 400.000 tonnes de blé russe et roumain », a commenté Dewey Strickler de Ag Watch Market Advisors. « Avec un dollar en hausse sur les dernières séances, cela a rendu le blé américain moins compétitif sur le marché international », a-t-il ajouté. Puis, dans les tous derniers échanges, le blé s'est repris « à cause de la persistance de la sécheresse », a expliqué Dax Wedemeyer.

Le blé avait connu une forte hausse à partir du 26 juin dopé par des conditions de cultures de blé de printemps moins bonnes qu'en temps normal et par des prévisions météorologiques annonçant un temps plus sec et plus chaud que d'habitude dans les Etats du centre-nord du pays où est concentré l'essentiel des champs dédiés à cette culture. Le blé de printemps ne représente qu'une petite part de la production américaine mais est recherché pour sa teneur élevée en protéines.

Le soja et le maïs ont continué aux aussi à profiter de la météo aux Etats-Unis.

« Dans le nord du Midwest, nous attendons des températures supérieures à la normale et des précipitations inférieures à la normale », a expliqué Dewey Strickler, rappelant toutefois que ces zones ne concentrent que 15 % des cultures. « Nous ne sommes pas encore en plein dans la pollinisation et c'est peut-être pourquoi le marché n'accorde que des gains modérés », ont commenté les courtiers d'Allendale.

The United Nations underlined the "ample" availability of wheat supplies, pegging stocks at a record high, even as it cut its world production forecast - and revealed that cereals prices had risen at their fastest pace in thre years.

The UN food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, lowered by 3.3m tonnes to 739.9m tonnes its forecast for world wheat production in 2017-18, citing dryness in Europe – but not the high-profile drought in North America which has sent spring wheat production forecasts tumbling.

"The downward revision is almost entirely on account of smaller crops in the European Union and Ukraine, where dry conditions are anticipated to reduce yields," the FAO said.

Still, although the estimate for wheat inventories at the close of the season was trimmed by 1.6m tonnes to 255.8m tonnes, this remains a record high, and a rise of 8.7m tonnes year on year.

"Wheat availabilities are… seen ample," the FAO said, although adding that "supplies of high protein wheat could become tighter in view of a deteriorating crop outlook in the US".

The drought-tested US spring wheat crop, the highest protein variety, was overnight rated at just 37% "good" or "excellent", down 3 points week on week, and the lowest early-July reading on data going back to 1995.

Les cours du blé ont réussi de justesse à rester en hausse mercredi au retour d'un jour férié et après leur envolée entamée la semaine précédente, tandis que le soja et le maïs ont également progressé.

« Le blé a fluctué (...) mais rien n'a vraiment changé », a commenté Dax Wedemeyer de US Commodities. « Le blé était en hausse en début de séance mais il y a eu l'annonce d'un achat par l'Egypte de 400.000 tonnes de blé russe et roumain », a commenté Dewey Strickler de Ag Watch Market Advisors. « Avec un dollar en hausse sur les dernières séances, cela a rendu le blé américain moins compétitif sur le marché international », a-t-il ajouté. Puis, dans les tous derniers échanges, le blé s'est repris « à cause de la persistance de la sécheresse », a expliqué Dax Wedemeyer.

Le blé avait connu une forte hausse à partir du 26 juin dopé par des conditions de cultures de blé de printemps moins bonnes qu'en temps normal et par des prévisions météorologiques annonçant un temps plus sec et plus chaud que d'habitude dans les Etats du centre-nord du pays où est concentré l'essentiel des champs dédiés à cette culture. Le blé de printemps ne représente qu'une petite part de la production américaine mais est recherché pour sa teneur élevée en protéines.

Le soja et le maïs ont continué aux aussi à profiter de la météo aux Etats-Unis.

In 2017, Russia managed to increase the crops planted areas for the harvest-2017 by 300 thsd ha, to almost 80 mln ha, despite rather difficult weather conditions, such as rains, etc., declared the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Alexander Tkachev on July 5.
According to him, Russian agrarians already started harvesting grains. As of the reporting date, the production reached more than 1.5 mln tonnes of new crop grains.
According to the Minister, agricultural producers have to develop the grain potential annually, increase grain production volumes, confirming the status of Russia as the agrarian super-country.
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Snapshot of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as reported by government and private sources as of the end of business on Thursday:
WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. It was bought at $216.95 a tonne c&f for shipment in the second half of October. Seller was said to be trading house Ameropa.
FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Thursday. Tender deadline is July 4, traders said.
PENDING TENDERS:
SOYOIL TENDER EXTENDED: Egypt’s state buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), extended the submission deadline for offers in its crude soyoil tender to July 2 from June 29. GASC said previously it was seeking at least 30,000 tonnes of crude soyoil for arrival between August 15 and August 30 and offers should be made on a cost and freight basis.
WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains board issued an international tender to buy at least 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat, European traders said. The wheat can be sourced optionally from the United States, Canada or Australia. The tender closes on July 3 with offers remaining valid up to July 9, they said.
FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on June 28. The ministry had sought 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 200,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 30 in the tender that is usually conducted weekly. It is seeking the same amounts for each grain to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 28 in a similar tender that will be held on July 5.
RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued its fourth international tender since May, looking to import 50,000 tonnes of parboiled rice as it grapples with depleted stocks and record local prices. The deadline for offers is July 9, with the rice to be shipped within 40 days of signing any deal, a senior official at the country’s state grains buyer said.

La 40ème session de la conférence de l'Organisation des Nations-unies pour l'alimentation et l'agriculture (FAO) se tiendra du 3 au 8 juillet en cours à Rome (Italie), en présence du ministre de l'Agriculture, du Développement rural et la Pêche, Abdelkader Bouazghi, a indiqué un communiqué de ce ministère.

Cette conférence, qui sera consacrée à un débat autour du thème "Changement climatique, agriculture et sécurité alimentaire", verra la participation de 70 ministres et de 15 vice-ministres et un président, qui seront ponctués par une vingtaine d'événements parallèles.

Cette manifestation bisannuelle est organisée dans le but de réunir les Etats membres de la FAO en vue de revoir et de voter le programme de travail et le budget proposé par le Directeur général et d'engager le dialogue sur les questions liées à l'alimentation et à l'agriculture.

Cette année, les participants traiteront de nombreuses questions urgentes telles que les pénuries d'eau, la sécurité alimentaire et l'évolution du climat au Proche-Orient et en Afrique du Nord. 

Turkey could emerge as the top export destination for Russian wheat in the 2017/18 marketing year, which starts on July 1, overtaking Egypt where Russia appears to be losing ground to rivals such as Ukraine and Romania, traders and suppliers said.

The resolution of a trade dispute with Turkey last month has led to a step up in wheat sales from Russia. At the same time, Russia is losing lucrative business to Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, to cheaper rivals.

Turkey is widely expected to increase its wheat imports this year despite an expected large harvest.

"The huge Turkish flour exports are likely to continue in the new year, generating more wheat imports, with Turkey continuing as a major flour supplier in problem regions including Syria, Iraq and Sudan," a European trader said.

Igor Pavensky, the head of marketing at rail operator Rusagrotrans, said competition for the Egyptian market would be stronger in the new season, and Turkey might become the largest market for Russian wheat in 2017/18.

Russia was undercut by Ukraine and Romania at the most recent Egyptian tender on June 22, when its exporters felt compelled to add price premiums to cover a series of possible risks.

Les prix du blé européen n'en finissent plus de baisser, contrairement à l'origine américaine.

Les céréales ont à nouveau terminé dans le rouge hier sur Euronext, pénalisés, notamment, par une nouvelle hausse de l’euro face au dollar. Il s’agit de la septième séance consécutive de baisse pour le blé européen. L’origine américaine continue pourtant son rallye haussier, avec les blés de printemps HRS (Hard Red Spring) qui évoluent sur des plus hauts de trois ans à Minneapolis.

Le climat américain reste en effet particulièrement capricieux, avec des prévisions de pluies qui changent de jour en jour.

Par ailleurs, une nouvelle, mais courte, vague de chaleur est attendue en cette fin de semaine sur la Corn Belt, zone de production du soja et du maïs américain.  Le complexe oléagineux a par ailleurs profité de la très nette progression du pétrole hier (+2,5 %), elle-même motivée une baisse de 100 Kt de la production hebdomadaire américaine.

Mais le Département à l’énergie américain a également annoncé une augmentation de 25 000 barils par jour de la production US d’éthanol sur la semaine, à 1,01 million de barils, ce qui a pesé sur les prix du maïs.

The Global Food Market Information Group of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) met in Rome on June 22-23 to discuss the current commodity market outlook for grains and oilseeds. This marked the eleventh meeting since the group was launched in 2011 at the G20 Agricultural Ministerial following the food price spikes in 2007-2008 and 2010. Composed of the principal grain-producing and -consuming countries, AMIS assesses global food supplies (focusing on wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans) and provides a platform to coordinate policy action in times of market uncertainty.

AMIS is composed of G20 members plus Spain and seven additional major exporting and importing countries of agricultural commodities. Together, AMIS participants represent a large share of global production, consumption, and trade volumes of the targeted crops, typically in the range of 80-90 percent. By enhancing transparency and policy coordination in international food markets, AMIS has helped to prevent unexpected price hikes and to strengthen global food security.

To carry out its functions, AMIS consists of:

The Global Food Market Information Group, assembling technical representatives from AMIS participants, to provide reliable, accurate, timely, and comparable market and policy information;
The Rapid Response Forum (RRF), composed of Senior Officials from AMIS participants, to promote early discussion about critical market conditions and ways to address them; and
The Secretariat, involving 11 international and inter-governmental organizations (including IFPRI), to produce short-term market outlooks, assessments and analyses, and to support all functions of the Information Group and the RFF.
The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. It represents the collective assessment of AMIS’s member organizations concerning the international market situation and outlook. Published ten times a year, the report aims at improving market transparency and detecting emerging problems that might warrant the attention of policymakers.

Les cours du blé européen étaient en baisse jeudi à la mi-journée, après avoir franchi la barre des 180 euros la tonne lors de la séance de mercredi.

Le marché montre « une certaine forme de réticence à aller au-delà des niveaux actuels », indique le cabinet Agritel dans une note. De plus, « les cours sur le bassin mer Noire progressaient de façon bien moindre que sur le reste du monde, rendant ces origines très compétitives sur la scène internationale », ajoute Agritel.

Cela s'est d'ailleurs illustré avec l'appel d'offres lancé par l'Egypte, qui a vu la Russie s'octroyer mercredi la part du lion avec 350.000 tonnes et la Roumanie pour 60.000 tonnes.

Par ailleurs, les analystes d'Agritel affichent une estimation de production de blé tendre au niveau européen de 141,8 millions de tonnes et de 150 millions de tonnes tous blés confondus. Les exportations vers les pays tiers (hors UE) sont affichées à 27,4 millions de tonnes.

Vers 12h20 (10h20 GMT), sur Euronext, la tonne de blé perdait 2,50 euros sur l'échéance de septembre à 178 euros, et 2,75 sur celle de décembre à 184,25 euros, dans un volume supérieur à 10.230 lots.

En ce qui concerne le maïs, la tonne perdait 1,25 euro à 172,25 euros sur l'échéance d'août et abandonnait 50 centimes d'euros sur celle de novembre à 172 euros, dans un volume d'échanges très faible de 260 lots.

For the week ending July 2, mostly dry conditions continued to lower soil moisture ratings and stress in crops in much of the state, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Northern Plains Regional Field Office, South Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the southeast and west early in the week. Rainfall amounts were light, with the driest parts of the state receiving no rainfall. Producers began winter wheat harvest, while second cutting of alfalfa was ongoing. There were 6.1 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 32 percent very short, 36 short, 30 adequate, and 2 surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 28 percent very short, 35 short, 36 adequate, and 1 surplus.

Winter wheat condition rated 26 percent very poor, 37 poor, 25 fair, 12 good, and 0 excellent. Winter wheat coloring was 80 percent, behind 93 last year, but ahead of 62 for the five-year average. Mature was 22 percent. Harvested was 7 percent, near 5 last year and 4 average.

Spring wheat condition rated 32 percent very poor, 33 poor, 24 fair, 10 good, and 1 excellent. Spring wheat headed was 92 percent, near 89 last year, and ahead of 79 average. Coloring was 35 percent.

Oats condition rated 19 percent very poor, 23 poor, 30 fair, 26 good, and 2 excellent. Oats headed was 92 percent, near 89 last year, and ahead of 85 average. Coloring was 48 percent, ahead of 39 average. Mature was 4 percent.

Barley condition rated 39 percent very poor, 32 poor, 27 fair, 2 good, and 0 excellent. Barley headed was 91 percent, ahead of 78 last year, and well ahead of 70 average. Coloring was 36 percent, well ahead of 5 last year.

Spring wheat prices posted wide swings after reaching a four-year high as traders weighed prospects for an intensifying drought in the High Plains against signs that U.S. supplies aren’t competitive in export markets.
On the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, high protein spring wheat for September delivery rose 0.5 percent to close at $8.1975 a bushel. Earlier, the price jumped as much as 6.4 percent to $8.685, the highest for a most-active contract since Feb. 1, 2013. The commodity then slumped as much as 5.1 percent, pushing 60-day volatility to the highest since August 2015.

Drought and shrinking acreage across the High Plains has driven prices up by 52 percent this year. Much of Montana and the Dakotas were in moderate to extreme droughts as of June 27, and the area for all varieties of wheat planted for 2017 is the smallest on record since data starts in 1919, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Egypt, the world’s top buyer, was said to have bought 410,000 metric tons in a tender on Wednesday with cargoes from Russia and Romania, shunning U.S. supplies.

Egypt's Gasc extended its rapid start to the season for wheat orders by purchasing a further 410,000 tonnes of the grain, at a tender which indicated a huge premium on US prices, following their drought-driven rally.

Gasc, grain authority for the world's top wheat-importing country, bought 350,000 tonnes of Russian wheat, and 60,000 tonnes of Romanian supplies, for a total of some $88m, including freight charges.

The purchase took to 1.43m tonnes the amount of the cereal Gasc has already purchased for delivery in 2017-18 with the season only five days old.

Typically, the authority makes a slower start to the season, relying on supplies purchased from the domestic harvest.

However, there has been some talk of a disappointing harvest this year, although this is not borne out by crop estimates from the likes of the International Grains Council and the US Department of Agriculture.

Still, the IGC, citing a "stronger pace of new season buying", last week raised by 200,000 tonnes to 12.1m tonnes its forecast for Egypt's overall wheat imports this season, a result which would represent a rise of 700,000 tonnes year on year.

According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, the outlook for AMIS crops in 2017/18 remains positive. Global maize markets are expected to be particularly well supplied given record harvests in the southern hemisphere. Prospects for rice and soybeans remain positive as well. For wheat, deteriorating crop conditions in the US and the EU have recently pushed up international prices. World wheat supplies are still expected to be adequate, with stock levels expected to exceed the already high opening levels.

This edition of the Monitor is No. 50 in the series. The AMIS Secretariat would like to thank all contributors for their valuable inputs, which have helped to continuously improve the report.  We would also remind our readers that there will be no Market Monitor in August. Next edition will be released on 7 September.

- Snapshot of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as reported by government and private sources as of the end of business on Wednesday:
WHEAT SALE: Egypt's state grain buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it bought 410,000 tonnes of Russian and Romanian wheat.
CORN REJECTION: Egypt has rejected a 60,000-tonne shipment of Ukrainian corn because of concerns about the common grain fungus ergot. The corn will be re-exported to Spain.
WHEAT SALE: Japan's Ministry of Agriculture said it would import 15,750 tonnes of feed-quality wheat for livestock use through a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction.
WHEAT SALE: Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought about 420,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender. OAIC paid about $215 a tonne, cost and freight included, for the wheat, which will be shipped in September.
PENDING TENDERS:
RICE TENDER: Bangladesh's state grains buyer issued its fourth international tender since May, looking to import 50,000 tonnes of parboiled rice as it grapples with depleted stocks and record local prices. The deadline for offers is July 9, with the rice to be shipped within 40 days of signing any deal, a senior official at the country's state grains buyer said.
SOYOIL TENDER: Iran's state purchasing agency GTC issued an international tender to purchase up to 30,000 tonnes of soyoil, European traders said. Tender deadline for the crude, degummed soyoil is July 10.
WHEAT TENDER: Jordan's state grains buyer again issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The tender closes on July 13, they said. (Compiled by Mark Weinraub; Editing by Bill Trott)

Egypt expects to cut imports of yellow corn to 7 million tonnes during the 2017-18 fiscal year beginning in July from 8.5 million tonnes the year before due to higher local production, Agriculture Minister Abdel Moneim Al-Banna said on Wednesday.
Egypt has been trying to reduce its reliance on imports after a shortage of foreign currency in recent years sapped its ability to purchase from abroad and hampered economic growth.
Banna said Egypt would offer farmers about twice as much per tonne for their corn this fiscal year - 3,400 Egyptian pounds ($190.48) compared with about 1,700 last year.
Egypt last year floated its pound currency, causing it to roughly halve in value and pushing inflation to over 30 percent.
The higher procurement price is expected to boost the total area of corn planted by about 500,000 feddans (210,000 acres), to reach about 1.25 million feddans, Banna said. ($1 = 17.8500 Egyptian pounds) (Writing by Eric Knecht; Editing by Mark Potter)

Soft wheat imports by Spain, the European Union's top buyer, will soar further than had been expected, by 43%, AgroInfomarket said, cutting again its forecast for the country's own harvest, thanks to dry weather.

The analysis group termed "inevitable" a greater reliance by Spain on imports of a range of grains in 2017-18 to ensure feed supplies required by the country's extensive livestock sector.

However, imports of soft wheat look like showing particular growth in the new season, which started on Saturday, with buy-ins pegged at 5.60m tonnes, an upgrade of 450,000 tonnes from the previous forecast, and a rise of 1.80m tonnes year on year.

Mr. Jesús María Silveyra of Argentina (right) is the new AMIS Chair. Mr. Silveyra took over the Chairmanship from Mr. Friedrich Wacker of Germany (left) during the 11th Session of the Global Food Market Information Group, 22-23 June 2017.

In his address to country delegates, Mr. Silveyra expressed his appreciation for being selected as AMIS Chair and promised to continue the excellent leadership that was provided by Mr. Wacker during the past year. In particular, Mr. Silveyra seeks to strengthen country collaboration and improve the visibility and outreach of the AMIS initiative, including to the private sector. He also noted that he is the first Chair from a Latin American country, which demonstrates the nature of AMIS as a true global initiative.

Mr. Silveyra's Chairmanship coincides with the Argentinean Presidency of the G20 that will start later this year.

Dans une série de trois articles, nous proposons des éclairages complémentaires des limites de ce qu’il est convenu d’appeler les outils privés de gestion des risques (marchés à terme et assurances contre les risques économiques). Dans le premier (ci-dessous), nous montrons pourquoi ces outils sont surtout adaptés dans le cas de marchés où les prix fluctuent régulièrement autour des coûts de production, ce qui n’est pas le cas en pratique pour les marchés agricoles. Il existe en effet deux représentations opposés du fonctionnement des marchés agricoles : d’un côté, une représentation idéale des marchés (on parle de « marchés efficients ») où, grâce à l’ajustement spontané de l’offre et de la demande, les prix convergent d’eux-mêmes vers un équilibre correspondant aux coûts de production ; de l’autre une vision réaliste de marchés agricoles qui sont structurellement instables et dont les prix n’égalisent qu’accidentellement les coûts de production, ce qui dessine ainsi des cycles marqués par de « rares pics et de larges creux »1. Le deuxième article de cette série propose une analyse de la stratégie des acteurs, des jeux d’alliance et des intérêts des différents promoteurs des outils privé de gestion des risques. Enfin, le troisième discute de l’intérêt et des limites des marchés à terme dans le secteur laitier.

he Egyptian government has appealed a court verdict that ordered the suspension of a food inspection system launched to reform trade in agricultural commodities, Supply Minister Ali Moselhy told Reuters on Saturday.

An administrative court ordered on June 13 that supervision of inspections should return to the agriculture quarantine body. The government had 15 days to appeal.

The verdict raised the prospect that Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat, might re-impose a ban on the grain fungus ergot, a policy that rattled global wheat markets and led to boycotts of state grain tenders when it was briefly introduced last year.

(Reporting by Ahmed Aboulenein; editing by Jason Neely)