Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics, Page 9

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June 11, 1:37 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 11, 1:06 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

And here is Faisal Islam noting that the government's main focus is on increasing capital expenditure, investing in infrastructure , trying to reduce regional inequality, not least in terms of transport provision.

However, to some extent the ability of the spending to boost economic growth is going to be dependent upon the extent to which this increased government spending crowds in private sector investment.

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Scooped by Graham Watson

June 11, 9:53 AM

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Labour’s spending review: five charts underpinning Rachel Reeves’s decisions | Spending review 2025 | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 11, 1:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

An excellent summary of the Spending Review with reference to five charts looking at the implications of changes in fiscal policy. As part of a commitment to increased public spending and a change in the pattern of that spending, there's more for health and defence, and overall, public spending is going to grow, not least because of an increase in big infrastructure projects.

The opportunity cost of these spending pledges though is higher long-term interest rates, with 30 year bond yields higher than in either the US or Germany, and the prospect of future tax rises to fund some of this spending.

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June 11, 3:58 AM

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From www.theguardian.com - June 10, 2:51 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

This is an interesting article which suggests a rise in import penetration in food markets, and perhaps the effect of recent trade deals in the sector. Certainly the National Farmers' Union are reporting increased sales of imported chicken and beef, which critics argue is produced with lower environmental standards.

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June 11, 3:52 AM

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From www.theguardian.com - June 10, 1:54 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Are Britons sitting on hoarded cash deposits? That's certainly the view of the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England who thinks that uncertainty has triggered precautionary saving and affected the amount of money in circulation.

You might want to think about why uncertainty triggers saving and the longer-term implications of this. Does it imply the possibility of pent-up demand and future inflation?

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June 10, 2:11 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 9, 7:10 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The government has given the go-ahead to a third nuclear power station in Suffolk, although it's not without controversy. From an energy security perspective, Sizewell C has the capacity to provide non-intermittent power for around 6 million homes, but there are concerns both about the cost and the risks associated with nuclear power.

It's remarkable how, in my life time, nuclear power has become seen as a 'green' option. Is the disposable of spent nuclear fuel no longer seen as an environmental threat?

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June 9, 3:40 AM

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From www.theguardian.com - June 4, 11:36 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

I can't believe that I missed this last week: however, Larry Elliott has written a powerful piece arguing that for all the 'noise' associated with this week's Spending Review, we shouldn't lose sight of the underlying reality of policymaking - spending pledges require funding.

As a consequence of the government's targets on health, defence, housebuilding and net zero, he argues that its self-evident that taxes will need to rise in the Autumn. The question is which taxes, and who will bear the burden; however, the problem the government is going to have is, once again, narrative based, how can it convince people of the need for higher taxes in the current macroeconomic environment.

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June 9, 3:34 AM

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From www.theguardian.com - June 8, 2:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Given the recent local election results and the U-turn on the Winter Fuel Allowance, the Guardian wonders whether the government could be on the point of watering down its commitment to net zero and continue to allow exploitation of the fossil fuel reserves in the North Sea as a way of protecting jobs, revenues and, perhaps more importantly, votes.

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June 9, 3:15 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 8, 2:55 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Faisal Islam's long piece on the BBC website rather sets the scene for this week's Spending Review where the government will set out its spending plans. The reality is that we basically know what's going to happen - higher defence and health spending - but as the article points out, it is also seen as a chance to change the narrative.

The biggest criticism of the government is that, thus far, it has spent its time asserting that all of the problems it has inherited have dictated its fiscal position. So what next? What is it's long-term plan and how will it enact it. That's what this week is about.

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June 5, 10:54 AM

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The Guardian view on Labour’s investment plans: sugaring the bitter pill of austerity | Editorial | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 4, 1:26 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

This Guardian editorial looks at yesterday's announcement of greater spending for the North, and significant infrastructure investment in Birmingham, for example. It concludes that it's worthwhile but wonders whether the long-term benefits will be enough to alter the narrative about public spending.

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June 4, 7:08 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 4, 6:22 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

And one area where there appears to have been a rethink is the Winter Fuel Allowance, with the Chancellor having announced that more people are going to be eligible for it this year. However, as is often the case, the devil will be in the detail.

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June 4, 1:53 AM

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Rachel Reeves unveils £15bn for trams, trains and buses outside London | Rachel Reeves | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 3, 7:01 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Increased transport spending for the regions - with £15bn going to public transport initiatives outside of London, generating a multiplier effect, dependent upon the extend to which local factors of production are used.

It should improve labour mobility and help with regard to regional inequality. It's also part of the current political narrative, in trying to reconnect the government with so-called "Red Wall" voters.

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June 3, 8:58 AM

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UK interest rates more uncertain due to Trump policies, says Bank governor | Interest rates | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 3, 8:12 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Andrew Bailey's been addressing the Treasury Select Committee and is of the view that the future direction of UK monetary policy is going to be less certain as a result of Trumponomics and the ongoing trade war. That's said the overall trajectory is going to be downwards, but the pace of rate cuts increasingly uncertain.

As you should be able to see, the prevailing level of uncertainty doesn't benefit anyone.

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June 1, 4:44 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 31, 7:16 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The IFS has noted that the forthcoming Spending Review is likely to highlight that increased health and defence spending has an opportunity cost in terms of lower levels of spending elsewhere, with the aid budget particularly affected.

One of the more interesting little nuggets that's highlighted by the article is the fact the public service productivity is below pre-Covid levels, so tackling this would seem to be an important part of the government's task in the years ahead.

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June 11, 1:33 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 11, 11:51 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This BBC piece highlights the distributional effects of the Spending Review - noting that some departments have gained but other have lost out. Education, health and social housing will gain but is this at the cost of spending elsewhere. And as Faisal Islam points out, the payoffs to many of the spending projects is long-term.

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June 11, 9:47 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 11, 8:19 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The BBC summarizes the effect of the Spending Review on people's personal finances - in short, those well trailed spending announcements mean that there's more money - and the prospect of more jobs - in some areas - healthcare, defence and housebuilding - but less in others.

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June 11, 3:55 AM

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Rachel Reeves to unveil £39bn housing boost in spending review shake-up | Spending review 2025 | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 10, 5:30 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Is this the last major part of the Spending Review? The government look set to announce increased spending on social housing, with the prospect of a £39bn boost for housebuilding as it attempts to hit its manifesto pledge of building 1.5m new homes.

However, as you should be aware, setting housebuilding targets is easy. Achieving them, far harder.

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June 10, 9:36 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 10, 2:28 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The latest labour market data suggests that unemployment has ticked upwards, to 4.6%, the highest for 4 years and there's also been a 63,000 fall in the number of jobs available - to 736,000.

Both figures imply that the labour market is weakening, and this is also implied by a slowing in real pay growth. It will be interesting to see whether this sways the Monetary Policy Committee in favour of an interest rate cut in ten days' time.

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June 9, 10:43 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 9, 7:12 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Forty years on, the lady's for turning in this instance, with the Chancellor announcing the restoration of the Winter Fuel Allowance for all pensioners on less than £35,000.

The government have tried to suggest this is the result of stronger than anticipated growth, their critics see this as an admission that the initial cut was an error.

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June 9, 3:35 AM

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Spending review is a chance for Reeves to paint a more positive picture | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 8, 6:32 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Discuss the importance of "the narrative" in economic policymaking...

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June 9, 3:18 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 8, 4:09 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

And here's another little Spending Review snippet: more spending on science and technology. You might want to work through its demand- and supply-side effects, and attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of such spending. There's also a nod towards increased public sector productivity.

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June 7, 6:02 AM

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Rachel Reeves’s spending review will reveal what this government’s priorities really are | Helen Miller | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 6, 6:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The incoming Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and - I kid you not - one-time Tax Personality of the Year - Helen Miller has written in the Guardian that next week's Spending Review will give a good indication of the government's fiscal priorities.

Whereas in the past the opportunity cost of increased healthcare spending was an decrease in defence spending, this is no longer true. As a result, other departments are likely to suffer.

And as Ms Miller is all too aware, the real issue at hand is how to promote growth and that's also likely to require reform of the tax system to both raise revenue and foster economic growth.

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June 5, 10:45 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 5, 6:15 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

My, oh my. The beleaguered ONS has admitted that its inflation number for April is too high as a result of being given incorrect road tax data. Instead of being 3.5%, inflation should have been given as 3.4%.

This might seem like an inconsequential point; however, the ONS itself has admitted that its labour market data should be treated cautiously, and if we can't trust the data, this increases uncertainty which could act as a drag on economic activity.

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June 4, 7:06 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 4, 6:44 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The BBC notes that the government is in the process of undertaking a Spending Review and the results will be revealed in a week's time. The article looks at the function of a Spending Review and its likely outcome.

It's a pity that they don't use marginally more technical language to describe current expenditure and capital expenditure, or the government's fiscal rules which are also outlined.

As a result, although there seems to be relatively little that the government is going to be able to do spending wise, a number of announcements have already been made, notably with reference to defence spending, spending on regional public transport and infrastructure spending.

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June 4, 1:49 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 3, 5:35 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

And yet tariffs on UK metal exports, albeit the case that they are a tiny fraction of all steel entering the US, remain at 25% subject to the UK-US trade deal being ratified.

There's neither rhyme nor reason to any of this. Trying to give it economic coherence is simply not worth it.

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June 2, 2:59 AM

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Labour pushes ‘military Keynesianism’ to win support for defence spending | Defence policy | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 1, 5:30 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The phrase military Keynesianism has been coined to describe the increase in defence spending, but as this article makes clear this comes at an opportunity cost.

Yes, there's the possibility of this generating a multiplier effect, but will the size of the multiplier from military spending be higher or lower than a multiplier arising from spending on other things such as poverty reduction? You need to think about this - do the poor have a higher marginal propensity to consume than other groups? If so, doesn't that imply that such spending would do more to boost economic growth.

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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

Rachel Reeves plans are not a quick fix but that's the point

Labour’s spending review: five charts underpinning Rachel Reeves’s decisions | Spending review 2025 | The Guardian

Cheaper imported chicken and beef increasingly seen in UK supermarkets | Meat | The Guardian

Britons ‘hoarding cash amid economic uncertainty and fear of outages’ | Economics | The Guardian

Sizewell C nuclear plant gets £14.2bn government investment

UK tax rises in the autumn are essential – but who will pay? | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Will the North Sea oil and gas industry be Labour’s next U-turn? | Energy industry | The Guardian

Will Labour government now decide to escape its own shadow?

The Guardian view on Labour’s investment plans: sugaring the bitter pill of austerity | Editorial | The Guardian

Winter fuel payment U-turn in place this year, says chancellor

Rachel Reeves unveils £15bn for trams, trains and buses outside London | Rachel Reeves | The Guardian

UK interest rates more uncertain due to Trump policies, says Bank governor | Interest rates | The Guardian

Spending Review: Tough choices unavoidable, says IFS

Spending Review: How much did schools, transport and the NHS get?

Bus fares to jobs: Seven ways the Spending Review affects you

Rachel Reeves to unveil £39bn housing boost in spending review shake-up | Spending review 2025 | The Guardian

UK firms hold off on hiring as job vacancies fall

Winter fuel payment: 'We've listened', says Reeves as U-turn confirmed

Spending review is a chance for Reeves to paint a more positive picture | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

Spending Review to include £86bn for science and tech

Rachel Reeves’s spending review will reveal what this government’s priorities really are | Helen Miller | The Guardian

UK inflation number for April too high after data blunder

Spending Review: What is it and what might Rachel Reeves announce?

UK temporarily spared from Donald Trump's 50% metal tariffs

Labour pushes ‘military Keynesianism’ to win support for defence spending | Defence policy | The Guardian