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Exclusive: PM says he has ambitious plans for partnership and argues Britons have moved on from Brexit 
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Analysts say the news boosts business confidence, helps an EU trade reset and shows the UK is a good place to invest – but it’s unlikely to turbo-charge GDP
Graham Watson's insight:
One of those pieces that attempts to sum up the state of play and makes the fairly self-evident case that the US and India trade deals are good thing and may have positive effects on business and consumer confidence, and, as a result, are likely to boost economic growth. Factor in the 0.25% cut in interest rates and the prospect of more by the end of the year and it's been a good week.
But the bigger picture largely remains unaltered: the UK is set for a year of slow, if sluggish growth, such that commentators are calling for further deregulation to build upon these proverbial green shoots.
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From
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Andrew Bailey told the BBC that as a public official he did not take a view on Brexit, but that reversing the post Brexit hit to UK-EU trade would be "beneficial".
Graham Watson's insight:
In the aftermath of yesterday's MPC interest rate decision and the conclusion of the UK-US trade negotiation - note, I don't say deal - the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has been unequivocal in his support for closer UK-EU trade relations.
Such a move would have a positive multiplier effect and boost growth, although politically this needs sensitive handling so that it doesn't appear that Brexit is being revisited. Whether this can be managed is another thing.
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From
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The two nations have announced a deal to reduce tariffs - here's what you need to know.
Graham Watson's insight:
It appears that I've jumped the gun in calling the UK-US negotiations a trade deal - it will only become a trade deal if it's ratified by Congress. However, this outlines what's included in the deal and what's not.
Whilst the 25% tariff on cars and car parts has been reduced to 10%, and the blanket 10% tariff remains elsewhere, but there are some exceptions - Rolls Royce aircraft engines and parts, steel and aluminium, and things made out of those metals are now tariff-free.
However, there's not yet been agreement on other sizeable areas like pharmaceuticals.
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Move follows run of downbeat economic data and looks to cushion UK from Trump’s trade war fallout
Graham Watson's insight:
Not much to see here, officer. Interest rates are down to 4.25% in line with expectations. You might, however, explain how the cut in rates will operate vias the monetary transmission mechanism.
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The forecast said low growth would place the Bank of England in difficult position ahead of next interest rate decision
Graham Watson's insight:
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) believes that the low rate of growth is going to be problematic for the government and necessitate either further spending cuts or tax rises.
Their growth forecast has been revised down to 1.2% for the year, and they think that uncertainty over the government's tax plans is having more of an adverse effect upon economic growth than President Trump's trade policy.
It's not alone in the view that growth is going to be sluggish; the IMF also recently revised their forecast down from 1.6% to 1.1%.
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India has made concessions in trade negotiations, leaving UK heralding deal as ‘most significant’ since Brexit
Graham Watson's insight:
More on the UK-India deal with the general impression being that the deal is as good as could have been expected, and a win-win for both economies.
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From
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The UK has secured its biggest post-Brexit deal at a tense time for global trade.
Graham Watson's insight:
Faisal Islam on the UK-India trade deal suggests that the UK will, currently, be the largest beneficiary but that this could change over time, and that it will be interesting to see whether India's car manufacturers might target the UK market.
Either way, it's being portrayed as a win-win.
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Smaller companies say costs of Rachel Reeves’s tax rises led to them lay off more workers in April
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest service sector data won't make for good reading for the government, with small businesses, in particular, seemingly feeling the pinch. The PMI data suggests that the sector is in decline "at 49.0 in April, down from 52.5 in March".
This will adversely affect economic growth going forward.
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Markets suggest quarter-point reduction to 4.25% is almost certain but some economists say Bank must go further
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that the ongoing uncertainty precipitated by the Trump Presidency is going to see a softening of UK monetary policy this week, with the MPC seen as likely to cut rates by 0.25% to 4.25%. Such a move is an attempt to offset the worst effects of Trumponomics, although there are even calls for a 0.5% cut in some circles, and Morgan Stanley are forecasting further cuts in the months ahead.
The apparent problem is that whilst economic activity is weakening, the effect of the tariffs may also keep inflation higher than anticipated, making the conduct of monetary policy harder.
However, it seems that central bankers are prepared to look beyond the tariffs and assume that they are a temporary phenomenon.
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US officials have split negotiations with countries into three phases, sources say, with South Korea taking priority
Graham Watson's insight:
There seems to be little immediate prospect of a US-UK trade deal is the sources cited are correct. This means that any anticipated boost to UK economic growth is going to have to wait.
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EY Item Club predicts GDP of only 0.8% this year as Ipsos Mori poll shows three-quarters of Britons expect economy to get worse
Graham Watson's insight:
The influential Ernst & Young Item Club are forecasting lower UK economic growth than previously, almost entirely as a result of President Trump's latest tariffs. Their forecast of 0.8% economic growth is 0.2% lower than previously and reflects a decline in consumer and business confidence.
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From
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The government is considering nationalising the company, which employs some 2,700 people.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the fate of British Steel hangs in the balance, with the company in danger of running out of materials as its future is being debated. There's some talk that the government are going to step in nationalise the company to prevent job losses but this hasn't been agreed as yet. and would have a high opportunity cost.
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Site likely to create 1,000-plus jobs as AESC wins £680m from UK government plus £320m in private finance and equity
Graham Watson's insight:
Inward investment from Japanese-owned car battery maker, ASEC, albeit with the help of government intervention, implies that there's going to be a regional multiplier effect triggered in the North East. The initial 1,000 jobs created are going to result in higher levels of spending in the region and this is going to see a more than proportionate increase in national income.
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Jet engine maker, automotive industry, and UK steel sector voice relief after trade deal announcement
Graham Watson's insight:
Well, I never...
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The deal definitely puts the UK in a better position, but its impact on the wider economy might be limited
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian take on the UK-US trade deal - generally positive - but reservations remain, not least because some of the tariffs do, but also given the capricious nature of President Trump.
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Split in Bank of England votes muddies waters as to direction of monetary policy in coming months
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian analyses the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates to 4.25% noting the voting of MPC members: two votes to cut by 0.5% and two votes to hold rates unchained, indicating that there's considerable uncertainty, and that there are also concerns about the level of inflation proving tricky to get back to target, not least as a result of President Trump's tariffs.
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Loss of the vast Hornsea 4 offshore wind project is bad news but it reveals a big flaw in setting a deadline
Graham Watson's insight:
Nils Pratley notes that the loss of the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project cast further doubt on the ability of the government to achieve its 2030 deadline for decarbonising electricity generation.
He highlights the fact that policymaking which involves deadline setting is dangerous because it can place the importance of hitting the target above making economically rational decisions, and this makes no sense.
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From
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Rate-setters meet to decide whether to change the base rate from 4.5% with a decision at 12:02 BST.
Graham Watson's insight:
MPC decision day today; the expectation is that interest rates will be cut, the question is by how much. The smart money's on 0.25%.
To be honest, I don't know why MPC membership is so exclusive - any Economics teacher worth their salt could do as good as job as any of the present incumbents.
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From
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Here's a quick guide to what's been agreed and what it could mean for you.
Graham Watson's insight:
And a bit more background detail: It's the third largest trade deal after the post-Brexit deals that the UK has struck with Australia and Japan, but it will still only boost the UK economy by £4.8bn.
Still, it beats trumpeting trade deals with the Faroe Islands, I guess.
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From
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The deal will improve access for UK whisky and cars to the Indian market, and cut taxes on India's clothing and footwear exports.
Graham Watson's insight:
The UK and India have signed a trade deal after 3 years of negotiation; it should allow for UK exporters of whisky and cars greater access to the Indian market, with greater access to UK markers for clothing and footwear manufacturers. However, bear in mind that all of these are differentiated goods, so quality standards are going to differ.
However, the net result should be lower prices, increased consumer choice and an increase in consumers' economic welfare.
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Almost two-thirds of people believe economy will get worse in next 12 months amid tariffs uncertainty and Ukraine war
Graham Watson's insight:
Not good news for the Chancellor, with a poll from Which? suggesting that UK consumer confidence is at its lowest level since December 2022, and that has adverse implications for growth. The expected headwinds all feature: US tariffs, the ongoing war in Ukraine, higher prices, tax changes and so on.
Either way, it seems that growth is likely to remain flat for the foreseeable future.
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UK among lowest-ranked countries for ‘human flourishing’ in wellbeing study | Science | The Guardian
Findings of survey on happiness, health, finances, meaning in life and relationships raise concerns for young people
Graham Watson's insight:
A contribution to the perennial debate about whether or not economic growth is associated with development and subjective well-being concludes that the UK performs exceptionally poorly in relation to the latter in relation to the 22 other countries, particularly with regard to mental health, covered by the Global Flourishing Study. In fact, we languish 20th out of 22 nations.
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Trussell report finds that higher levels of poverty mean Britain is losing out on £38bn a year of potential output
Graham Watson's insight:
What are the economic implications of benefit cuts? This Guardian article based on research by the anti-poverty charity Trussell suggests that benefit cuts are going to cost the economy £38bn a year in the form of lost output. I'd love to see the methodology used here.
The charity has linked financial hardship to lower levels of employment and productivity, although can you draw a direct link between the two in all cases?
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From
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Steel workers and their families can "breathe a sigh of relief", says the business secretary.
Graham Watson's insight:
The government's decision to take control of the steel plant at Scunthorpe means that it's now incurring a significant opportunity cost of keeping the plant running. Previous owners, Tata Steel UK, were running the plant at a loss of around £5m per week, according to some estimates and this has now been taken on by the state.
Is there a strong economic case for this? It's difficult to make a purely economic case, but you might want to think about arguments for why the government has intervened like this.
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Interesting. To what extent will the government be able to negotiate closer relations with the EU, given the Brexit vote and the perceived popularity of the Reform Party.
And if this is the only brake on a closer relationship, to what extent is the UK and idiocracy - where policymaking is constrained by the limited understanding of a proportion of the electorate?