Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 16, 3:32 AM
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Banks say Healey planning to increase tax on their profits in Budget

Banks say Healey planning to increase tax on their profits in Budget | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Senior banking executives have told the BBC they expect to be "on the menu" in the chancellor's Budget tax later this month.
Graham Watson's insight:

The banks are worried that the Budget is going to tax them more heavily, despite the fact that they already face a surcharge of 3% on top of the baseline 25% rate of corporation tax, and pay as levy on their balance sheets. 

 

Is this fair? I'm not as opposed to it as you might think: as the article notes "The biggest four banks collectively made about £15bn profit in the first six months of this year" and I think they're actually pretty bloody lazy, and do so largely because of barriers to entry in the sector. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 15, 3:38 AM
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UK households have paid extra £13,961 on bills since 2021 amid soaring inflation, TUC says | UK cost of living crisis | The Guardian

UK households have paid extra £13,961 on bills since 2021 amid soaring inflation, TUC says | UK cost of living crisis | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Trades Union Congress urges chancellor to tackle rising additional living costs in this month’s budget
Graham Watson's insight:

The TUC have attempted to quantify the extent to which the cost of living crisis has affected the average household since 2021, and their research suggests that we've paid nearly £14,000 more on basic living costs than would otherwise have been the case. 

 

I'd caveat this with the suggestion that prior to that we were experiencing unusually low cost in some of these areas.

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 14, 9:01 AM
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What surprise praise for UK economy tells us about the Budget

What surprise praise for UK economy tells us about the Budget | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
On three occasions in the past 24 hours, top IMF officials have praised UK plans to reduce its annual levels of borrowing.
Graham Watson's insight:

In the absence of anything earth-shattering occurring at the IMF's Annual Meeting in Bangkok, Faisal Islam reflects on the implications of the upgrading of the UK's economic prospects for the Budget. In short, he thinks that little's going to change, given the commitment to the fiscal rules...it's more a case of steady as she goes. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 14, 3:33 AM
Scoop.it!

Not building third runway would be 'missed opportunity', says Heathrow boss

Not building third runway would be 'missed opportunity', says Heathrow boss | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Thomas Woldbye tells the Today progamme it would be "good to know" the government's position on the project, after comments made by the prime minister.
Graham Watson's insight:

Whilst I'm naturally sceptical about the Head of Heathrow Airport advocating for a third runway - it's self-evident it's in his self-interest to do so - I think this article sums up Britain's infrastructure issues. 

 

Undoubtedly the runway would be expensive and impose costs on the local environment and local communities, but it's taken nearly 20 years even to get to this stage, and we still don't know whether the project is going to start or not. 

 

Compare this to China, and the runway would have already been built and probably below budget too. So surely we need to look at our planning regime and how we can accelerate such nationally significant supply-side decisions? 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 13, 8:19 AM
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Stellantis and Renault back UK to get EU car industry protection | Automotive industry | The Guardian

Stellantis and Renault back UK to get EU car industry protection | Automotive industry | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Bosses of Citroën owner and French carmaker also urge UK government to consider limiting imports from China
Graham Watson's insight:

Some of Europe's biggest car manufacturers have aligned themselves with the British government in asking for the UK to be included in the "Made in Europe" legislation, almost as if it were one of the 27 member states. 

 

However, the quid pro quo seems to be that the government is going to need to impose protectionist barriers limiting Chinese imports, something that it's proved reluctant to do up to this point. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 13, 6:56 AM
Scoop.it!

UK growth forecast upgraded but higher energy prices to hit economy next year

UK growth forecast upgraded but higher energy prices to hit economy next year | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
The prediction from the IMF comes as final preparations are being made for the first Budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Graham Watson's insight:

The IMF is pleased with the UK's economic forecast, upgrading 2026's expected growth to 1.3% from 1%, and particularly pleased with the current government's commitment to getting the budget deficit down to the lowest in the G7 by 2031, according to Chief Economist, Silvana Tenreyro. By then the UK budget deficit is forecast to be 1.4% of GDP, compared to 8.4% in the US and around 4% for Germany, France and Japan. 

 

The only downside is that the effects of this year's energy price rises are going to take longer to feed through into the UK economy and is going to reach 3.3% this year and only slowly decline to 2.8% next year. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 12, 3:35 AM
Scoop.it!

Healey faces £35bn Budget challenge to meet spending pledges, says think tank

Healey faces £35bn Budget challenge to meet spending pledges, says think tank | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
The impact of the Iran war poses significant risks for the government’s spending plans, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says.
Graham Watson's insight:

The IFS have warned that the Chancellor faces a challenge in trying to meet his commitments to defence and health spending with current departmental spending plans. They want a clear signal that going forward his spending plans are credible and properly funded. 

 

Of course, the real reason that all of this is so vexed is because of the impact of exogenous shocks such as the Iran conflict on the global economy.  

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 10, 5:56 AM
Scoop.it!

Create new pre-apprenticeship scheme to close youth unemployment gap, says Milburn | Apprenticeships | The Guardian

Create new pre-apprenticeship scheme to close youth unemployment gap, says Milburn | Apprenticeships | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Exclusive: Former minister’s review warns that dramatic action is needed over huge drop in youth apprenticeship starts
Graham Watson's insight:

Back to the future, with Alan Milburn, the former Labour minister responsible for an ongoing review into youth jobs, arguing for a pre-apprenticeship scheme to counter a drop in the number of young people starting apprenticeships. 

 

The government are thinking of combining this with a change in benefits being paid to the young with the focus on getting young people into work rather than making them benefit-dependent. The issue is that we've been having this conversation for over 40 years. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 8, 2:22 AM
Scoop.it!

Badenoch’s inheritance tax gambit makes no economic sense | Economics | The Guardian

Badenoch’s inheritance tax gambit makes no economic sense | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
The Tory leader’s proposal to slash the tax would shovel £6bn of taxpayer money to the already-wealthy
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian sums up the Conservative pledge to abolish Inheritance Tax pretty well: it is a nonsense. 5% of all estates pay Inheritance Tax, so such a pledge is effectively returning money to the wealthiest 5%. In addition, it's reducing the incentive to downsize in old age, and adversely affecting the housing market. 

 

The problem is that the abolition of Inheritance Tax plays well with readers of the "Daily Mail". If any of them are reading this, I can assure them that if you read the "Daily Mail" you aren't liable for Inheritance Tax.

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 6, 2:31 AM
Scoop.it!

UK reviewing whether to impose tariffs on Chinese car imports to align with EU | Tariffs | The Guardian

UK reviewing whether to impose tariffs on Chinese car imports to align with EU | Tariffs | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Move would strengthen Britain’s case to be included in new legislation to protect European manufacturing
Graham Watson's insight:

Trade-offs, trade-offs.

 

The UK is considering mirroring the EU's 45% tariff on the import of Chinese cars, in the hope of aligning itself with the Eurozone and possible inclusion in the EU's "Made in Europe" legislation - the so-called Industrial Accelerator Act. 

 

Of course, the difficulty comes in significantly increasing the price of Chinese cars in the UK - and they're increasingly popular - and the effect of such a move on UK-Chinese relations. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 4, 7:38 AM
Scoop.it!

Burnham’s plans for social care and its workers are admirable but changes must come quickly | Heather Stewart | The Guardian

Burnham’s plans for social care and its workers are admirable but changes must come quickly | Heather Stewart | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Money is needed now for a system that has left families including mine struggling their way unsupported and forgotten
Graham Watson's insight:

Heather Stewart's piece for the Guardian calls for the swift introduction of the new social care plans, arguing that the most vulnerable are already suffering and that any delay us unwarranted, even if it means additional expense. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 4, 4:15 AM
Scoop.it!

UK car industry faces ‘difficult trade-off’ between Chinese and EU markets | Automotive industry | The Guardian

UK car industry faces ‘difficult trade-off’ between Chinese and EU markets | Automotive industry | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Britain under pressure to put tariffs on cheap Chinese vehicle imports ahead of protectionist trade measures
Graham Watson's insight:

This is a fascinating article about the trade-offs in policymaking, with the UK under pressure to put tariffs on Chinese cars, like the US and the EU. The issue is that the UK is weighing up the effects of retaliatory Chinese tariffs, the prospect of the EU's "made in Europe tariffs" and continued free trade, allowing UK manufacturers to export tariff-free to China. 

 

The other issue is that Chinese car manufacturers are also eyeing up the UK as a manufacturing base, with Chery thinking about investing in Nissan's plant in Washington, Tyne and Wear... 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
September 30, 2:49 PM
Scoop.it!

UK income growth revised upwards as markets hail ‘resilient’ economy | Economics | The Guardian

UK income growth revised upwards as markets hail ‘resilient’ economy | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Boost for John Healey before budget as GDP figure shows UK economy grew faster than first estimated in second quarter
Graham Watson's insight:

The ONS has revised upwards the UK's economic growth data for the first six months of the year, after a recalculation of data for the 2nd quarter. 

 

As a result, growth has leapt up from 1% to 1.1% - insignificant you might think but not only does it imply that the economy is showing greater resilience post-Iran but it has also boosted the value of the pound and marginally lowered bond yields and given the Chancellor a fraction more breathing space. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 15, 3:41 AM
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UK hospitality sector to offer up to 100,000 jobs to young people out of work | Youth unemployment | The Guardian

UK hospitality sector to offer up to 100,000 jobs to young people out of work | Youth unemployment | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Restaurants and pubs such as Nando’s and Fuller’s will create placements for 18- to 24-year-olds under DWP-backed scheme
Graham Watson's insight:

Another pledge from another sector of the economy, in this case the hospitality sector, promising 100,000 jobs to young people as part of the government's Job Guarantee Scheme, which is hoping to tackle youth unemployment and the number of NEETs. 

 

Again, as someone who's naturally sceptical, making a promise is the easy part...fulfilling it, far harder. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 15, 3:31 AM
Scoop.it!

UK economy sees surprise growth in August ahead of Healey's first Budget

UK economy sees surprise growth in August ahead of Healey's first Budget | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
The uptick helped the economy grow by 0.7% over the three months to August, official figures show.
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest data suggests that the UK economy grew by 0.1% last month, making it 0.7% growth for the last quarter, in line with the IMF's upgrading of its growth forecast for the UK.

 

Good news, albeit marginal, for the Chancellor, prior to the Budget later this month.

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 14, 3:39 AM
Scoop.it!

UK resists EU pressure to hit China with tariffs | Trade policy | The Guardian

UK resists EU pressure to hit China with tariffs | Trade policy | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Exclusive: Business secretary says he will not change trade rules due to EU pressure and denies UK will become a ‘back door’ for cheap imports
Graham Watson's insight:

Is the UK going to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese cars in response to EU demands that it does so if it wants to be included in the EU's "Made in Europe" scheme that's going to cover the sector. 

 

Well, the Business Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, is suggesting that we're not going to do so immediately but that the situation is under review. We shall see.

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
October 13, 2:59 PM
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UK high street bosses urge chancellor to cut cost of employing young people | Retail industry | The Guardian

UK high street bosses urge chancellor to cut cost of employing young people | Retail industry | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Retailers call on John Healey to reduce national insurance contributions threshold in his first budget
Graham Watson's insight:

Retailers are lobbying the Chancellor to reverse last year's surprise increase in the threshold at which firms pay employers' National Insurance from £9,100 to £5,000. Their argument is that the increase has deterred their members from employing young people, a nice touch in the week that Alan Milburn reports on youth unemployment. 

 

However, it seems that there is some consideration of whether or not to start to equalize out rates of taxation on income and capital gains. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 13, 8:15 AM
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UK shoppers seek deals as grocery price inflation rises again | Supermarkets | The Guardian

UK shoppers seek deals as grocery price inflation rises again | Supermarkets | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Price of chocolates falls in run-up to Halloween, while supermarkets use special offers to draw in sales
Graham Watson's insight:

Although the price of chocolate is down, the overall picture is that grocery price inflation is on the rise again, with supermarket prices up 2.5% on the same time last year. 

 

Oh, that and pumpkin sales are up 10%... 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 12, 4:42 AM
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‘Some aren’t going to make it’: how pressure on farmers threatens UK food security | UK news | The Guardian

‘Some aren’t going to make it’: how pressure on farmers threatens UK food security | UK news | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Food producers are adding their voices to the chorus of warnings about the vulnerability of British supply chains
Graham Watson's insight:

This Guardian article highlights the fragility of the UK's food supply chains and argues that if we're not careful this has wider implications for food security. This is vital because the UK is already heavily dependent upon food imports. 

 

The recent concerns have been triggered by the Iran war and the steep rise in fuel prices that have put farmers under severe pressure; it seems that food security is increasingly been seen as part of national security. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 11, 6:22 AM
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‘Our town is making jeans again’: meet the firm reviving jobs and skills in Wales | Retail industry | The Guardian

‘Our town is making jeans again’: meet the firm reviving jobs and skills in Wales | Retail industry | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
In the first article in a series on high end British manufacturing, we visit the Hiut Denim factory in Cardigan
Graham Watson's insight:

A tale of reindustrialization? Or something so niche that it can't be replicated at scale, either way, Hiut Jeans have returned to Cardigan to manufacture their luxury jeans. However, whereas the town used have 4,000 workers producing 35,000 pairs of jeans per week for M&S, before manufacture was offshored to Tangiers, the company now employ 20 people to make 120 pairs per week. The cost? A mere 10 times the pair of a High Street brand. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
October 10, 1:57 AM
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Tory tax break for banks has cost UK public purse £6bn, says TUC | Banking | The Guardian

Tory tax break for banks has cost UK public purse £6bn, says TUC | Banking | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Exclusive: Chancellor urged to reverse Jeremy Hunt’s tax surcharge cuts to claw back billions in lost revenue
Graham Watson's insight:

The Trades Union Congress are arguing that the last Conservative Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, deciding to cut the tax surcharge on banks' profits has cost the Treasury £6bn. At the time, banks lobbied for its removal arguing that it would put London at a competitive disadvantage relative to other financial centres, but it's quite an opportunity cost.

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October 7, 2:22 AM
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UK risks being 'uninvestable' if new oil and gas fields not approved, warns Equinor

UK risks being 'uninvestable' if new oil and gas fields not approved, warns Equinor | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Equinor warns it may shun further investments in the UK if new oil and gas fields at Rosebank and Jackdaw are not approved.
Graham Watson's insight:

A big supply-side decision for the UK government - whether or not to approve the extraction of North Sea gas and oil from two new oilfields. ON the one hand there's an environmental imperative, on the other, any decision not to exploit these resources might mitigate the effects of climate change, but the UK bears the costs and everyone else shares in the benefits.  

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October 5, 2:37 AM
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British government ‘complacent about food as a national security matter’ | Food & drink industry | The Guardian

British government ‘complacent about food as a national security matter’ | Food & drink industry | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Experts say country does not have plan to feed people in a crisis and is unprepared for future shortages
Graham Watson's insight:

A number of experts have written to the government highlighting the UK' lack of food security and the high level of dependence of food imports, meaning that we're seen as being vulnerable to external shocks going forward. They are concerned that the current just-in-time production model isn't appropriate for a more complex world. 

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October 4, 4:19 AM
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Ministers explore how to stop regional leaders misusing planned new spending powers | Devolution | The Guardian

Ministers explore how to stop regional leaders misusing planned new spending powers | Devolution | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Labour wants to make sure mayors and council chiefs in England can be held to account for extra revenues devolved to them
Graham Watson's insight:

Devolution, the decentraliisation of public spending, will have its limits, with ministers keen to ensure they are held accountable. Meg Hillier of the Public Accounts Committee thinks that she's the person for the job. 

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October 3, 2:55 AM
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Rightwing economic myths could derail Burnham’s project – to destroy them, look to Keynes | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Rightwing economic myths could derail Burnham’s project – to destroy them, look to Keynes | Larry Elliott | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
Borrowing can be good, there is no such thing as the ‘nation’s credit card’, and, yes, you can buck the markets – as previous governments have shown, says Guardian columnist Larry Elliott
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott writes less frequently these days - but this piece is well worth a read for its overview of recent economic history and the intellectual currents discussed. 

 

He contrasts the free market policies  of the Thatcherite era with Andy Burnham's more interventionist approach, arguing that a lot of the current fiscal orthodoxy simply fits with that narrative rather than being grounded in empirical fact. He suggests that government borrowing can be good, and that governments can buck the market - citing the furlough scheme as an example. 

 

In essence, he's asking the government not to lose its nerve. and ends, summarising Andy Burnham as potentially: "the prime minister who asked the right questions but failed to come up with the right answers."

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