Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB, A-Level and Pre-U economists relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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Anxiety running high about London's future as a financial centre | Barry Eichengreen | Business | The Guardian

Anxiety running high about London's future as a financial centre | Barry Eichengreen | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The City isn’t going to lose its status overnight, but can the loss of assets pre-Brexit be reversed?
Graham Watson's insight:

Not scooped much about the City and Brexit recently, but Barry Eichengreen serves to remind us of the cost to the UK, if large parts of the City up sticks and leave for Europe.

 

Heaven help us.

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Hotel chain struggles to recruit EU workers

Hotel chain struggles to recruit EU workers | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels says a shortage of European workers has hit its profits.
Graham Watson's insight:

More Brexit - more bad news - with hotelier Millenium & Copthorne suggesting that difficulties in recruiting European workers has hit profits. This is a sector which is really going to feel the pinch if EU workers stay away post-Brexit.

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Brexit: UK has rolled over just £16bn out of £117bn trade deals | Business | The Guardian

Brexit: UK has rolled over just £16bn out of £117bn trade deals | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Liam Fox has agreed deals with only seven of 69 countries covered by EU arrangements
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian looks at the extent to which the UK has concluded trade deals for the post-Brexit world, and concludes that we've got deals with 7 of the 69 countries covered by EU deals. Looked at another way - this means that around 15% of UK imports and exports are covered.

 

Hubris. It's a great word.  

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Google outlines $13bn US investment

Google outlines $13bn US investment | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The announcement comes amid concerns about slowing US business spending.
Graham Watson's insight:

Positive multiplier effect, anyone?

 

That would be an obvious implication of Google's $13bn investment.

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What are the different measures of inflation, and are we being conned? | Business | The Guardian

What are the different measures of inflation, and are we being conned? | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The UK uses three measures and each has its fans, but it does seem unnecessarily complicated
Graham Watson's insight:

With the latest inflation data, one for the nerds - why does Britain have three different types of inflation measure. 

 

This article allows you to tell the difference between CPI, CPIH and RPI, and looks at how they are regarded by those of us 'in the profession'...

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Brexit: No-deal plan for Channel Tunnel operations

Brexit: No-deal plan for Channel Tunnel operations | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The trains will run on time - at least temporarily - while the UK and EU renegotiate terms.
Graham Watson's insight:

Brexit and the Channel Tunnel - yes, it will affect all of us...

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German think tank calls for EU to make Brexit concessions

German think tank calls for EU to make Brexit concessions | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The IFO Institute warns German business is "suffering already" from uncertainty about the UK's exit.
Graham Watson's insight:

Even the Germans are worried about Brexit: however, I'm not sure that this is a terribly strong negotiating position. A leading German think-tank argues that the EU should offer the UK concessions, but only out of self-interest. 

 

The clock is ticking...

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Brexit: Mark Carney warns of no-deal 'economic shock'

Brexit: Mark Carney warns of no-deal 'economic shock' | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The Bank of England governor urges MPs to solve the Brexit impasse amid warnings of slowing global growth.
Graham Watson's insight:

The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that a no-deal Brexit represents an 'economic shock'.

 

Wow! That's why they earn the big bucks...

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Hammond’s Brexit ‘dividend’ claim rejected as UK economy stalls | Politics | The Guardian

Hammond’s Brexit ‘dividend’ claim rejected as UK economy stalls | Politics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Chancellor’s claim undermined as rapid slowdown in GDP growth is revealed
Graham Watson's insight:

A good day for the Treasury Select Committee that has been categoric in denying the government's claim that there will be a Brexit dividend, as well as suggesting that the government's commitment to deficit reduction.

 

It's verdict? “The government’s fiscal objective has no credibility and should be replaced.” I've argued since its inception that it never had any credibility in the first place - and the latest budget simply underscored that.

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The Guardian view on the UK economy: before Brexit, rescue it from austerity | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian

The Guardian view on the UK economy: before Brexit, rescue it from austerity | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Editorial: The public want the government to spend more, yet the Tories cannot grasp how this makes economic and political sense
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian paints a bleak picture suggesting that Brexit has allowed the government the chance to ignore pressing domestic issues. It argues - quite remarkably, in my view, but not surprisingly given Labour's lack of coherence on the issue - that the current government would be better off rescuing the country from austerity than the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. 

 

Really, guys?

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Food industry warns Gove on Brexit 'crisis'

Food industry warns Gove on Brexit 'crisis' | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Business leaders threaten to stop co-operating with government policy consultations as no-deal Brexit looms.
Graham Watson's insight:

First it's the car industry, then it's the food industry. Is anyone happy with Brexit?

 

Apart from the media obviously. What will they do after 29 March?

 

More seriously, some of the biggest players in the food industry are threatening to stop co-operating on government policy consultations because the threat of a no-deal Brexit means they're too busy engaged in making contingency plans.

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UK's carmakers face twin concerns of global upheaval and Brexit | Business | The Guardian

UK's carmakers face twin concerns of global upheaval and Brexit | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Manufacturers face investment decisions amid transition to electric and self-drive vehicles
Graham Watson's insight:

Spolier alert: the car industry and Brexit. It isn't going to be an unduly jolly article, I'd wager...

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What effect has Brexit had on the UK economy?

What effect has Brexit had on the UK economy? | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The prolonged uncertainty of the "Brexit fog" seems to be leaving its mark on prosperity.
Graham Watson's insight:

The BBC looks at the macroeconomic consequences of Brexit: it makes a change from the Guardian.

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A380: Airbus to stop making superjumbo as orders dry up | Business | The Guardian

A380: Airbus to stop making superjumbo as orders dry up | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Firm makes ‘painful’ decision to end production of the planes in 2021 – putting UK jobs at risk
Graham Watson's insight:

More on the end of the A380, but this time focussing on its implications for UK jobs.

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UK retail sales bounce back in January

UK retail sales bounce back in January | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Clothing discounts helped retail sales to rebound sharply last month, official figures show.
Graham Watson's insight:

It's rare to see a good news story but retail sales have rebounded and buoyed the High Street, although the fact that discounting drove this, and the fact that some analyst predict that people are shopping now  before Brexit drives prices higher.

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Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far?

Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far? | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The UK says it want to replicate the EU's trade agreements "as far as possible".
Graham Watson's insight:

As Barry Davies once said of Francis Less scoring for Derby County v Manchester City - #oneforthekids - "Just look at his face...look at his face"...

 

Liam Fox looks as pleased as Punch himself having secured one of the promised 40 trade deals that he said would have been concluded by the time Britain leaves the EU. And I'm sure that the Faroe Islands will have been delighted to secure such a deal, given that they are one of our largest non-EU trading partners. Or not.

 

This Reality Check article details the progress, if you can call it that, of the UK in getting those trade deals done.

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MPs and peers press Treasury to abandon 'absurd' inflation measure | Business | The Guardian

MPs and peers press Treasury to abandon 'absurd' inflation measure | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Ministers urged to ditch RPI, which it is claimed penalises students and rail passengers
Graham Watson's insight:

More of the same - but this time looking at why RPI is generally regarded as not fit-for purpose and seems to penalise students and rail passengers.

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Brexit healthcare worries for Brits in Spain

Brexit healthcare worries for Brits in Spain | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
British pensioners in Europe worry about healthcare costs in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Graham Watson's insight:

I include this here, if only for one quote: expat, Yvonne Stone who says "when I voted to leave I didn't think it would change anything for my rights to live here."

 

Well, now you know. The chickens are coming home to roost...

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Fracking refused at second site in Lancashire

Fracking refused at second site in Lancashire | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The government says highway safety issues at Roseacre Wood "have not been satisfactorily addressed".
Graham Watson's insight:

A blow for Cuadrilla, the fracking firm, after an application for a second fracking site in Lancashire has been turned down.

 

Fracking is a lovely economic issue - lots of excellent microeconomics - negative externalities and so on - but also lots of supply-side angles to use, in relation to energy generation, self-sufficiency and potential growth. 

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UK inflation falls to two-year low in January

UK inflation falls to two-year low in January | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
UK inflation falls to 1.8% in January, down from 2.1% the previous month, official figures show.
Graham Watson's insight:

News flash: inflation drops below target to 1.8%. Good news for real pay, perhaps, but is this a function of demand- or supply-side factors? 

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Brexit doubts leave firms 'hung out to dry'

Brexit doubts leave firms 'hung out to dry' | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
With less than 50 days until Brexit, critical questions remain, says the British Chambers of Commerce.
Graham Watson's insight:

The British Chambers of Commerce have left the government in no doubt as to what they think of the government's handling of Brexit. To quote the article, "There is a very real risk that a lack of clear, actionable information from government will leave firms, their people and their communities hung out to dry," said BCC director general Adam Marshall.

 

In particular, these issues will be most pressing for SMEs, who will lack the manpower, or skills, to react as quickly as larger MNCs might be able to.

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Government sued over no-deal ferry contracts

Government sued over no-deal ferry contracts | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Eurotunnel says the contracts were decided in a "secretive and flawed procurement process".
Graham Watson's insight:

One for the Brexit file - under 'F' for ferries. Or farce.

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UK signs post-Brexit trade deal with Switzerland

UK signs post-Brexit trade deal with Switzerland | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The "continuity agreement" will see the two countries continue to trade as they do now, after Brexit.
Graham Watson's insight:

Crack open the champagne, that's another trade deal in the bag, this time with Switzerland. The Swiss join Chile, the Faroe Islands and Eastern and Southern Africa as being the only four places to have agreed trade deals with the UK. Not quite the 40 promised by Dr.Fox but getting there.

 

However, these deals are far from radical - seeing the countries continue to trade as they do now - with the Swiss representing "around £32bn of trade...with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country."

 

And I'm afraid I don't believe the rhetoric that "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for": even the Swiss might be able to see through that.

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Britain's Brexit slump will be quietly cheered in some quarters | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian

Britain's Brexit slump will be quietly cheered in some quarters | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Those hoping to push through May’s deal can use the excuse, but the truth runs deeper
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott's take on the latest growth data - it has its uses for some - however, that would be misleading. The bigger picture would highlight the parlous state of the global economy, which is also acting as a drag on the UK economy.

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Manufacturing slump puts UK economy into reverse as Brexit looms | Business | The Guardian

Manufacturing slump puts UK economy into reverse as Brexit looms | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
GDP contracts by 0.4% in December in weakest year for growth since 2012
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian with the latest on the UK's growth performance: apart from the decline in growth, the other major cause of concern must be the precipitous decline in the level of business investment which was 3.7% lower than last year.

 

And going forward that must be a major concern.

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