Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics
Economy
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 25, 2018 2:30 PM
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Brexit forecasting plan could delay Budget

Brexit forecasting plan could delay Budget | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - March 24, 2018 3:28 PM
The autumn Budget could be delayed if MPs are successful in pushing for an independent economic forecast of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
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Graham Watson's insight:
A footnote to ongoing Brexit negotiations. If MPs successfully push for an independent assessment of the economic implications of Brexit, it could delay the autumn Budget. "So what?" I hear you say; it might limit the effectiveness of policy making.  
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 25, 2018 2:23 PM
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New car sales 'to fall 5.5% in 2018' amid consumer slowdown

New car sales 'to fall 5.5% in 2018' amid consumer slowdown | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - March 25, 2018 2:23 PM
The UK market will be the "worst performer" among major European economies, Moody's says.
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Graham Watson's insight:
Lots of angles here - growth, the issue of the post-referendum depreciation and uncertainty about the position of diesel cars. However, the car industry appears to be suffering. Is this a leading indicator, or not? 
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 25, 2018 3:02 AM
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Workers switching jobs points to improving economic climate

Workers switching jobs points to improving economic climate | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - March 24, 2018 3:59 AM
Proof of the UK’s economic recovery can be seen in the surge in workers moving from one job to another, Bank of England officials claim.
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Graham Watson's insight:
An interesting Bank of England aside that suggests a marginal improvement in labour market conditions, as workers have started to switch jobs with a frequency last seen in 2004. The Bank argues that this is because of increased confidence in the state of the economy. It is suggested that an increased rate of switching indicates that people are prepared to take a risk in the knowledge that if the switch doesn't work out, there are other jobs out there. 
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March 23, 2018 3:47 AM
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UK retail sales rise eases pressure on high street | Business | The Guardian

UK retail sales rise eases pressure on high street | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 22, 2018 7:17 AM
Slight uplift in February is not enough to make up for weak December and January
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Graham Watson's insight:
Retail sales up: who says that the High Street's dead?
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 22, 2018 3:52 PM
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Bank vote hints at interest rate rise in May

Bank vote hints at interest rate rise in May | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - March 22, 2018 3:49 PM
UK rates remain unchanged at 0.5% but two Bank of England policymakers vote in favour of an increase.
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Graham Watson's insight:
The minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting hint at a likely rise in interest rates in the next couple of months. The voting pattern of the committee has shifted from unanimous support for 0.5% with two members voting for a right rise to 0.75%, and most economists believe that rates are likely to reach 2% by 2020-21. 
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March 21, 2018 5:04 PM
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UK earnings growing at fastest rate in more than two years | Business | The Guardian

UK earnings growing at fastest rate in more than two years | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 21, 2018 8:17 AM
Interest rate rise looms as wages increase more than expected in three months ending in January
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Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott reflects on today's unemployment figures - arguing that the pick up earnings suggest that interest rates are likely to rise sooner rather than later. The article notes that "including bonuses, average earnings in the three months to January were 2.8% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier, the highest since September 2015."

The Monetary Policy Committee is meeting this week and this might prompt a reaction: are rates on the point of rising? 
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March 21, 2018 4:53 PM
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Pay rises and unemployment falls as Britain’s money worries ease 

Pay rises and unemployment falls as Britain’s money worries ease  | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - March 21, 2018 4:48 PM
Wage growth surged to a three-year high in January as families are at last feeling the benefit of the economic recovery in their pay packets.
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Graham Watson's insight:
Another fascinating insight into editorial line - with the Telegraph trumpeting the fact that pay has risen and unemployment has fallen. However, look carefully at the data: the number of people unemployed has actually risen! 

How can this be: well, if the number of people in the labour force has risen quicker, then the unemployment rate will fall. 

And, yes, there is some good news in that economic inactivity has fallen. But pay rises are only rises in a nominal sense, and I love the idea that the "quality of jobs is also improving" - the basis for this assertion looks marginal to me. 
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 20, 2018 11:10 AM
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Inflation eases to 2.7% on falling petrol prices

Inflation eases to 2.7% on falling petrol prices | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - March 20, 2018 11:02 AM
Consumer price inflation falls from 3% as fuel prices fall and food costs rise more slowly.
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Graham Watson's insight:
A slightly larger than forecast dip in the rate of inflation, down from 3% to 2.7% as fuel prices fall and food costs rose, but at a slower rate than the previous year. Additionally, the post-Brexit depreciation of the pound is being squeezed out of the data. And as a result, this implies that the pay squeeze is easing, which is good news for ordinary families.
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 25, 2018 2:26 PM
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David Davis says a deal with EU is 'incredibly probable'

David Davis says a deal with EU is 'incredibly probable' | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - March 25, 2018 2:24 PM
The Brexit secretary says preparing for a stalemate is like having home insurance.
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Graham Watson's insight:
I'm not sure what "incredibly probable" means but hats off to David Davis for appearing on the Andrew Marr Show. If you look carefully at the picture, you might even see his 'sick bucket'....
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 25, 2018 3:07 AM
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Brexit was making us a joke nation even before the blue passports | William Keegan | Business | The Guardian

Brexit was making us a joke nation even before the blue passports | William Keegan | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 25, 2018 2:59 AM
Theresa May’s ‘transition’ deal is no cause for optimism amid this growing sense of farce
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Graham Watson's insight:
At least there's always William Keegan on Brexit to keep us going...
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 24, 2018 3:14 AM
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'We have been hijacked': fishermen feel used over Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

'We have been hijacked': fishermen feel used over Brexit | Politics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 23, 2018 9:31 AM
As the reality of leaving the EU takes shape, UK fishermen are bleak about their industry’s future
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Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian reports on the fact that the UK fishing industry feels betrayed over the nature of the UK's Brexit transition deal. The industry feels that the UK government haven't protected its interests and that the period of transition will see EU fishermen getting preferential access to UK waters, to the extent that many in the sector are already considering leaving it. It makes for depressing reading. 

I guess that the only consolation, as a Remain voter, is that I suspect that many fishermen were Leave voters: in which case, be careful what you wish for. 
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 22, 2018 4:50 PM
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Spoiler alert: Bank of England's hints of May rate rise are not subtle | Business | The Guardian

Spoiler alert: Bank of England's hints of May rate rise are not subtle | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 22, 2018 11:44 AM
Ratesetters point to interest increase that appears almost certain unless growth stalls
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Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott on the latest MPC minutes. Pity it wasn't Phillip Inman - John's boy. "Going up!"
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 22, 2018 4:23 AM
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Post-Brexit passports set to be made by Franco-Dutch firm | Politics | The Guardian

Post-Brexit passports set to be made by Franco-Dutch firm | Politics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 21, 2018 8:01 PM
EU company Gemalto is understood to have outbid UK rival for £490m printing contract
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Graham Watson's insight:
The ultimate Brexit irony?

No: the ultimate irony is the Brexiteers reaction to this, notably Priti Patel. Aren't we on the verge on becoming 'open to trade' and the ultimate free trade economy?
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 21, 2018 4:59 PM
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Powell warns interest rate rises are a fine balance as he hikes in his first Fed meeting

Powell warns interest rate rises are a fine balance as he hikes in his first Fed meeting | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - March 21, 2018 4:53 PM

New Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has hiked interest rates from 1.5pc to 1.75pc as the US economy has continued to strengthen.

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Graham Watson's insight:
US interest rates have risen as a result of the first Fed meeting of Jerome Powell's tenure. However, he's warned that the case for increasing rates isn't cut and dried, although further rate rises are likely in the remainder of 2018. 
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Scooped by Graham Watson
March 21, 2018 3:39 AM
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Cities in north and Midlands dominate growth measure | Business | The Guardian

Cities in north and Midlands dominate growth measure | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, A-Level Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 20, 2018 8:01 PM
Report places Manchester top across England and Wales, with London only coming in 20th
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Graham Watson's insight:
An interesting change in the pattern of growth in the UK, with urban regeneration in Manchester and Birmingham helping drive population growth and job creation in the North and Midlands. And if this continues, then it might - and I emphasis just might - start to redress growing regional inequality.
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