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Scooped by
Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics October 14, 10:54 AM
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UK and global GDP growth forecasts upgraded for this year but immigration controls could have negative impact
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Mark Carney says automaker’s move to inject $13bn into US is ‘direct consequence’ of Donald Trump’s tariffs
Graham Watson's insight:
Protectionism can turn trade from a win-win scenario, with increased economic welfare, into a zero-sum game. In this article, the decision of Stellantis to shut a Canadian factory and move production to the US, at a cost of Canadian jobs has met with Canuck disapproval.
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The Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria (TRIMING) project, supported by the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), has modernized 43,400 hectares of farmland—boosting yields, empowering farmers, and strengthening climate resilience. Across Kano and Jigawa States, irrigation is helping communities grow more food with less water and build a sustainable future for farmers and their families.
Graham Watson's insight:
This clip show how important irrigation is to agricultural productivity, and the effect of the World Bank's Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria (TRIMING) project in increasing food security in the country.
Increasingly, climate change imperils harvests, so better irrigation is essential to boost living standards and enhance developmental prospects.
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UK and global GDP growth forecasts upgraded for this year but immigration controls could have negative impact
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest IMF economic forecasts have slightly uprated both global and UK growth, despite the best efforts of President Trump but the overwhelming feeling is that there are more downside risks than upsides at the moment.
However, there's an acceptance that trade related risks sometimes take longer to play out than we might think would be the case, something seen to be true of Brexit.
In the case of the UK, though, a slight improvement is its growth forecast is predicted to come at the expense of slightly stickier inflation and this may affect the conduct of monetary policy.
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US tariffs also came into effect on imported timber, kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture.
Graham Watson's insight:
The drip, drip, drip of retaliatory measures keep coming with US tariffs coming into effect and China choosing to raise its port fees for US vessels that dock there. The port fees are scheduled to escalate each year up to 2028 and will just serve to drive up costs and prices faced by consumers. So remind me, who's gaining again?
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The move, which is aimed to protect supplies of technology, could raise tensions between the EU and China.
Graham Watson's insight:
This story is an unusual one - with the Dutch government using a little known piece of legislation - the Goods Availability Act - to takeover a Chinese-owned manufacturer of semi-conductors on national security grounds. The Dutch are trying to argue that elements of mismanagement by its Chinese owners represent a security threat and this justifies the decision.
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Influential economists want replenishment of funds and new ways to define countries in need before this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings
Graham Watson's insight:
The issue of debt relief is an ongoing one, but it's being brought into sharper focus by this week's IMF and World Bank meetings, with a number of influential economists and campaigners looking make it a central part of their agenda.
The concern is that the debt relief funds of these financial institutions have reached low levels, that need replenishing and the evidence that it is needed comes from reports that a number of developing nations are struggling to meet their debt obligations, and are having to reduce spending on essential public services, such as education and healthcare.
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US farmers caught in Trump-China trade war – who’ll buy the soybeans? | Trump tariffs | The Guardian
Tariffs have caused a Chinese exit from the soybean market – and midwestern farmers are waiting on a solution
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's how the trade war is adversely affecting US farmers, with soybean producers no longer able to sell into the Chinese market and building up surpluses of soybean that won't keep for ever.
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Graham Watson's insight:
The power of healthcare to foster development is made clear in this World Bank clip. A healthy population is more productive, and has a higher standard of living that would otherwise be the case.
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Labour embraced the forecaster’s powerful role, but now finds itself scrambling in the face of gloomy projections
Graham Watson's insight:
Heather Stewart's analysis explains the rationale behind the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, trying to create sufficient fiscal headroom to keep everyone - the OBR and bond markets - happy. For now.
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From
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Swiss exporters are looking at new markets after being hit by heavy US tariffs.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another European economy that's feeling the effects of President Trump's tariffs is Switzerland which, because it's not a member of the EU - rather like the UK - is not subject to the 15% tariff of EU exports.
Instead, the Swiss face a 39% tariff, something that's a concern given the fact that 17% of Swiss exports go to the US. Commentators estimate that 400,00 jobs could be at risk, as a result. However, what are the effects of tariff on the US. It's difficult to see how the US economy gains: the Swiss are the leading manufacturers of medical technology, such as the engine for the world's only artificial heart, so this is now going to become more expensive.
So will common sense prevail? I wouldn't bet on it.
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From
www
The Trump administration will purchase pesos in a bid to calm Argentina's economic crisis.
Graham Watson's insight:
The extent to which the US bailout of Argentina is appropriate is an interesting question. Is it predicated upon good economics, or is it a function of ideological agreement - if you can ever accuse the President of having an ideology?
Either way, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announced yesterday that the US had intervened in forex markets to buy Argentinian pesos, and in doing so boost the peso and presumably improve the indebted country's credit rating.
There's debate about whether it's appropriate for a government to bailout the citizens of another country before spending on its own - either in the form of healthcare provision, as Democrats want, or agricultural support, as some Republicans want. Watch this space.
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Possibility of ‘sharp market correction has increased’, says Bank’s financial policy committee
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm going to put this here - not in the Macroeconomic board - because the Governor of the Bank of England's warning about over-priced AI-related assets applies to the whole economy. Recent months have seen a significant rise in share prices, and there's a general state of concern about a perceived AI bubble bursting and that having a damaging effect on the global economy.
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Campaigners say increase in exports mostly to Malaysia and Indonesia is ‘unethical and irresponsible waste imperialism’
Graham Watson's insight:
This could go on the Microeconomic board but I'll put it here; it shows one of the problems with tougher environmental regulation in the developed world, in that it encourages firms to find ways of avoiding legislation, in this case with the UK exporting plastic waste to NICs like Malaysia and Indonesia. Given that the EU has banned this practice, I suppose Brexiteers will claim this is a benefit of Brexit.
This highlights the fact that consumption of single-use plastics remains a problem and the export of plastic waste is likely to generate negative externalities which we should really be compensating the importing nations for because it lowers their standard of living.
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Ratio would be highest since aftermath of second world war, with UK among G20 countries forecast to peak above
Graham Watson's insight:
The IMF is warning that global government debt is going to reach 100% of global GDP by 2029, the highest level since the Second World War. Of course, debt per se isn't a bad thing, can smooth out aggregate demand and be used for capital investment, but it comes with an opportunity cost, and the worry is that demographic challenges and climate change are going to push this higher.
Even more, developing economies with lower levels of debt are already struggling to meet their debt obligations.
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Commerce ministry says US is ‘threatening to intimidate’ with plans for new Trump tariffs on exports
Graham Watson's insight:
And so it goes...more retaliation in the pipeline, more provocative rhetoric.
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Customers worry about missing parcels as shipping companies struggle to handle a flood of packages facing new customs and tariff rules.
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's another effect of the tariffs - the end of the inspection exemption for parcels worth less than $800 entering the US has caused chaos, with the article noting that "an estimated 4 million packages each day subject to new, more onerous processing and documentation rules."
It's causing chaos for freight firms, for the businesses that use them and the customers looking to buy their goods and services.
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Trump hits out with 100% tariffs on Chinese imports after Beijing’s fresh curbs on rare earths, a month before both sides were due to agree a deal
Graham Watson's insight:
The trade war between the US and China rumbles on...the Guardian attempts to explain why.
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Krone says ‘alarming’ levies on about 400 goods including hair dryers and combine harvesters have forced pause
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that President Trump's tariffs are having a significant effect in certain sectors, to the extent that Europe's largest manufacturer of farm machinery, Krone, is pausing exports to the US.
The problem is that the steel derivative list is separate to the existing US-EU trade deal and it's difficult to decipher, with firms not sure of which tariffs apply to which goods, as a result, Krone fears that the opportunity cost of compliance makes it less worthwhile to export to the US, meaning lower economic welfare all round.
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Trump’s latest tariff tantrum and rising fears of an AI bubble have quickly borne out Kristalina Georgieva’s claim that ‘uncertainty is the new normal’
Graham Watson's insight:
Heather Stewart effectively summarises the past week, and the speech of IMF boss, Kristina Georgieva noting that there are considerably more headwinds than there were as a result of the ongoing US-China trade war and the prospects of an AI bubble bursting. You have been warned.
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From
www
Beijing says it could introduce "countermeasures" if the US President imposes an an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports.
Graham Watson's insight:
And so it goes. Tariff, retaliation, another tariff and so on.
Less consumer choice, lower economic welfare.
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Company will sell some medicines at a discount to government’s Medicaid health plan in exchange for tariff relief
Graham Watson's insight:
Much as drug prices have been revisited in the UK, they're also being changed in the US - although in this case it's drug price reductions, with AstraZeneca announcing that they're going to be selling some drugs to Medicare in exchange for tariff relief.
Unusually, it will see the company effectively being given "most favoured nation" status in return for helping reduce the amount that the US pays for prescription drugs. President Trump has already made contact with 17 drug makers in the hope of lowering prices across the board.
However, as ever, he can't resist absurd hyperbole suggesting that "the discounted prices for American consumers would reduce the price of prescription drugs by up to 1,000%".
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The S&P 500 closed down 2.7%, its steepest fall since April, after the US president hit out at China.
Graham Watson's insight:
Retaliation after retaliation. President Trump is at it again, the school bully responding to someone fighting back. He's suggested that he's going to impose and additional 100% tariff on Chinese exports on tope of the existing 30% tariff, as well as export controls on critical software.
It's in response to China's export restrictions on rare earth metals, but again it seems that no-one is winning as a result of this sort of intervention; indeed, there's a significant loss of economic welfare likely as a result.
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US president’s threat to impose 92% tariffs targeting major manufacturers puts family-run firms in the line of fire as well
Graham Watson's insight:
This brief article looks at the impact of proposed tariffs on exports of Italian pasta, and how it would affect small-scale Italian producers. Who are such tariffs protecting? Mass-manufactured US-made pasta.
So much for consumer choice, and another example of how tariffs worsen economic welfare. Of course, President Trump probably doesn't eat Italian food: it's too sophisticated for his palate.
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From
www
The announcement comes ahead of a meeting between China's President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump later this month.
Graham Watson's insight:
The US-China trade war takes many forms, in this case, there's an ongoing dispute about access to rare earth metals, and getting access to them. Despite their name, they're not actually that rare - however, there are difficult to refine, and produce a number of negative externalities, and nearly 80% of all refining of them is done in China.
Thus, China has introduced tighter restrictions on their exports, especially for foreign arms and semi-conductor manufacturers. Before you think this is outrageous, you might consider that the US has done something similar by restricting exports of semi-conductors to China.
And so on we roll...
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Kristalina Georgieva outlines mounting risks to economic stability before fund’s annual meetings next week
Graham Watson's insight:
One for the "That's Why They Earn the Big Bucks" file as the IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva highlights a higher level of default uncertainty in the global economy and, one that has lead its global growth forecast to be downgraded from 3.3% to 3%.
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The latest IMF economic forecasts have slightly uprated both global and UK growth, despite the best efforts of President Trump but the overwhelming feeling is that there are more downside risks than upsides at the moment.
However, there's an acceptance that trade related risks sometimes take longer to play out than we might think would be the case, something seen to be true of Brexit.
In the case of the UK, though, a slight improvement is its growth forecast is predicted to come at the expense of slightly stickier inflation and this may affect the conduct of monetary policy.