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Scooped by Graham Watson
onto International Economics: A-Level Economics

March 24, 2018 2:48 AM

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From www.youtube.com - March 22, 2018 7:00 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

President Trump outlines the reasons for his introduction of $60bn worth of tariffs on China. Except that it isn't - other than suggesting that China doesn't respect intellectual property rights (IPRs) and that this is a way to correct the US trade deficit, both with China and the rest of the world.

He has some sort of point with the first argument. But that second, whilst appealing to his political supporters, just isn't good economics.

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Economy

International Economics: A-Level Economics

A collection of articles relating to the 'international' elements of Economics and relating to IB, Pre-U and A-Level Economics.

Curated by Graham Watson

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Scooped by Graham Watson

Today, 2:33 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - October 4, 9:42 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Proof that trade deficits aren't just a feature of developed economies - with the BBC highlighting the growing trade deficit that India has with China. In 2020, the deficit was $44bn; it's now $112bn.

And it's going to be difficult to resolve: India is increasingly dependent upon China for its industrial imports and a number of critical materials. Thus, at some point there's going to need to be a rebalancing, although the fact that Indian exports to China are hampered by a range of protectionist barriers means that it will be difficult for Indian firms to export at scale.

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October 3, 2:38 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - October 2, 1:29 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The co-ordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from the strategic reserves of the G7 nations is designed to calm markets and put downwards pressure on diesel prices and avoid the possibility of President Trump imposing a diesel export ban.

It seems to have done the latter, but it will be interesting to see if it affects the former - watch for the phenomenon of 'rocket and feather' pricing at the pump.

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October 2, 2:23 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - October 1, 1:27 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

I'm amazed that the world's media haven't interpreted this better: whilst the US calls on Europe's economies to release some of their diesel reserves, faced with the prospect of diesel shortages and a US export ban, no-one has come and and suggested that the problem is entirely of US making.

As the article states: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated "that US 'farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left carrying the burden' as prices soar. It's almost as if the Trump regime is frightened of taking responsibility for their own idiocy.

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September 30, 2:52 PM

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From www.theguardian.com - September 30, 11:34 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Similarly, US data seems to imply that inflation is more muted than expected and growth still decent - all of which puts less pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates next month. That may please President Trump - however, he, of course, wants them lowered. Quite how he squares that with the US public finances, is anyone's guess, although I suspect he's not that into the detail.

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September 29, 4:40 AM

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RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank raises cash rate to highest level in 15 years and warns of more hikes ‘if needed’ | Australian economy | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 29, 4:14 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Monetary policy across developed economies is broadly contractionary, with the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates to 4.6%, faced with the prospect of inflation in the economy reaching 3.6% for the 3rd month running, well above the 2-3% target rate.

You might want to think about the trade-offs involved here, as well as how the monetary transmission mechanism will see these change affect real variables in the Australian economy.

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September 28, 1:52 PM

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Foie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods | Tariffs | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 28, 10:02 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Some relief in the ongoing US-China trade war, with the protagonists agreeing to scrap reciprocal tariffs on nearly $30bn worth of goods, everything from foie gras to trade in live animals, including dolphins. It gives some insight into the complexity of tariffs.

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September 27, 1:53 AM

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Poland is racing ahead with military spending – but will it help or damage its economic growth story? | Poland | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 27, 1:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The rise in defence spending in response to the attack on Ukraine has been termed military Keynesianism. In this article, Richard Partington looks at the implications of this for the nation that has seen the greatest increase in its defence budget: Poland.

A number of foreign arms manufacturers have invested in the economy and resulted in annual growth of 3.9% in the second quarter of the year, among the fastest in Europe.

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September 26, 6:21 AM

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From www.youtube.com - September 25, 4:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This Bloomberg clip looks at the implications of growing levels of debt in Brazil - both for the government and individuals, not least because of the deregulation of financial markets and increased use of credit cards. As interest rates have climbed, this has burdened the economy with increased debt repayments and some high profile firms have filed for bankruptcy.

Interestingly, President Lula da Silva has banned all online gambling overnight, hoping to tackle one aspect of the ongoing cost of living crisis.

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September 24, 8:06 AM

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Alarm bells sound in Brussels as EU sales of Chinese hybrid cars rocket | Automotive industry | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 24, 4:34 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

More bad news for EU car manufacturers with data for the last four years highlighting how Chinese manufacturers have adapted to EV tariffs by switching their attention to the market for hybrid cars.

The data is staggering, and highlighted by the article: "In 2022, just 659 Chinese-made fully hybrid cars were sold in the EU. However, in the first seven months of this year, sales of Chinese hybrids have shot up to 160,662.

As I said the other day; I fear that established European car maker have missed the boat.

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September 23, 1:53 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - September 22, 4:41 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

It seems that the Trump administration is considering a ban on diesel exports in the hope that it will bring domestic diesel prices down. It's not a great idea, it will distort markets - but it appears that the President's free market rhetoric doesn't apply if he thinks an idea might improve his prospects in the mid-term elections.

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September 23, 1:47 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - September 22, 7:11 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Excellent article by Simon Jack and Theo Leggett that looks at the challenges facing European car makers. The brutal truth is that they have been complacent, both in the face of Chinese competition and the pivot toward electric cars, thinking that their legacy status would save them. Frankly, if I were a shareholder, I would be pretty bloody cross.

However, it seems as though they are now looking towards diversification, in the form of military vehicles, to save their bacon. It's a high risk proposition; they're not experts in this field and they are sometimes competing against one another. Equally, they are diversifying into engine manufacturing and starting to ally with Chinese firms too. I have to save, I think that they've missed the boat.

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September 22, 2:11 PM

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EU spends three times more on imports from China than bloc exports there | European Union | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 22, 7:54 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

I'm currently looking at international trade, trade patterns and trade imbalances, and this article covers all three. It seems as though the EU is importing three times more from China than it exports there, with the daily trade deficit now in excess of €1bn per day in July.

The worry is that such is the the size of this that the EU is going to erect protectionist barriers, not least in the EV market, where it has already asked China to limit the export of hybrid vehicles.

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September 20, 4:47 AM

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Kevin Warsh may be the adult in the room. But can he calm the US economy? | Federal Reserve | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 19, 7:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Eduardo Porter is right in identifying Kevin Warsh's policy stance as 'adult' and right to point out the extent to which the White House is increasingly spouting economically incoherent nonsense, in failing to acknowledge its role in sustaining inflation and keeping interest rates high, and in continuing to run budget deficits and increasing bond yields as a result.

It feels as though the next few months will be a real test of central bank independence in the US.

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October 3, 2:42 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - October 2, 9:12 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The latest US labour (labor) market figures indicate a slowdown in job creation and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2% in the latest set of data before the mid-term elections. No doubt, there's rhetoric to follow - greatest of all time, greatest ever - not least because in the President's own words: "I've done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing,"

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October 2, 2:43 AM

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From www.youtube.com - September 30, 11:52 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

How has Botswana avoided the resource curse, having discovered diamonds a year after gaining independence? It's relatively easy - a legal system based on the rule of law, and the development of appropriate institutions and ethnic homogeneity have to a large extent ensured stability.

Oh, that and the fact that 80% of its exports to South Africa help.

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October 1, 6:01 AM

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Global bond sell-off intensifies, as UK long-term borrowing costs pass 6% | Government borrowing | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - October 1, 4:27 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Global bond yields are up again, with concerns about US borrowing costs feeding through into concerns about other economies, such as the UK. As a result, the yield on UK 30-year bonds has reached 6%, its highest level since 1998. Other yields, on 5- and 10-year borrowing have also gone up, which will concern the Chancellor because of the opportunity cost of debt interest repayments.

The US President really is playing a blinder in his second term.

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September 30, 1:21 AM

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From www.youtube.com - September 30, 12:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This World Bank clip underscores why increasing opportunities for women and girls, especially among the most vulnerable, enhances development prospects. The Resilience, Entrepreneurship and Livelihood Improvement (RELI) Project has provided Bangladeshi women with education and training that has enabled over 800,000 people to transform their lives, making many of them entrepreneurs, running poultry farms, vegetable gardens and so on.

This has also be been backed up by support for education and infrastructure investment to increase the capacity of rural institutions.

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September 29, 4:30 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - September 29, 12:10 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Lord giveth...and the Lord taketh away - reductions on US-China tariffs, increases on US-Canada tariffs, with the latest escalation in the Us-Canada trade war seeing tariffs imposed on alcohol, dairy and motorcycles.

Trade talks remain on ice - unlike the Canadian wine - with 93% of Canadian wine exports going to the US, so a resolution of ongoing issues is clearly important to Canadian winemakers.

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September 28, 1:42 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - September 28, 1:00 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Call me a contrarian, but I'd have adopted another approach: I'd have told him to crack on and impose a diesel export ban. It strikes me that the President isn't very good at taking advice, so telling him the opposite of what you want might be more likely to have the desired effect.

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September 27, 1:44 AM

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From www.youtube.com - September 26, 9:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The World Bank's Sierra Leone Economic Diversification Programme is helping the West African economy exploit new opportunities in tourism and the creative arts to attract vital foreign investment and ensure sustainable growth. This brief clip shows how the initial project has created economic growth, supported jobs and helped development prospects.

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September 24, 1:23 PM

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EU says Trump plan to ban US diesel exports would ‘negatively impact both sides’ | Oil | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 24, 10:46 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Well, I never, a protectionist measure that damages both sides. Who would have thought it?

Tariffs? Quotas? And now President Trump's proposed ban of diesel exports. The reality is that for an economy like the UK, only 70% of the diesel sold here is refined in Europe. Thus, an export ban would mean greater competition for increasingly scarce diesel resources, and bid up the price. From a US perspective, could harm long-term diesel supplies.

But the President knows best.

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September 24, 1:54 AM

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Germany pledges to phase out fossil fuels for first time with target of 2045 | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 23, 12:37 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

Despite a great deal of debate about whether or not its appropriate, Germany has re-affirmed its commitment to phasing out fossil fuel use, setting a target of 2045. This is seen as significant because it had only previously pledged to be carbon neutral by then. It is also intending to ramp up its target for renewable electricity generation from 55% to 80% by 2030, as well as cutting methane emissions by 30% by then.

This comes against an increasingly fraught background, with German economic performance in the spotlight, with the economy seemingly having stalled, in part as a result of higher energy costs.

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September 23, 1:51 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - September 22, 7:01 PM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that the developed world must look to cut its debt levels as borrowing costs rise, otherwise they risk financial crises. The reality is that because of competition for investors money, and increased uncertainty, bond yields have gone up and Georgieva is arguing that politicians seem to be a bit complacent about this.

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September 22, 2:13 PM

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European drugmakers say they are ‘losing ground’ to US and Chinese rivals | Pharmaceuticals industry | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 22, 11:04 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

And here's an example of a sector of industry worried about its ability to compete with both the US, and given the last article, China. European drugmakers are calling for action to safeguard their futures. The firms are arguing that they have 'strategic' importance, which, to me, looks like an argument for protectionism.

Watch this space.

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September 21, 2:01 AM

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China’s stranglehold on rare earths must be ended, says hopeful supplier to EU | Critical minerals | The Guardian | International Economics: A-Level Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - September 20, 7:00 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This article highlights the stranglehold that China has over the supply of rare earth metals, and the attempts of one firm, Viridis Mining and Minerals, that is looking at developing the capacity to mine rare earth metals at its sites, notably in Brazil.

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International Economics: A-Level Economics

Trade: How India became dangerously addicted to Chinese imports

G7 to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel after Trump export ban threat

US pressures Europe over diesel reserves as Trump threatens export ban

Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates | US economy | The Guardian

RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank raises cash rate to highest level in 15 years and warns of more hikes ‘if needed’ | Australian economy | The Guardian

Foie gras, live dolphins and toasters: China and US cut reciprocal tariffs on $30bn each of goods | Tariffs | The Guardian

Poland is racing ahead with military spending – but will it help or damage its economic growth story? | Poland | The Guardian

Why Brazil Can’t Hide From Its Debt

Alarm bells sound in Brussels as EU sales of Chinese hybrid cars rocket | Automotive industry | The Guardian

Trump says he would back ban on diesel exports as pump prices hit record

Europe's car makers are in crisis. Will the threat of war rescue them?

EU spends three times more on imports from China than bloc exports there | European Union | The Guardian

Kevin Warsh may be the adult in the room. But can he calm the US economy? | Federal Reserve | The Guardian

US jobs market sees sharp slowdown ahead of midterm elections

Why Botswana Got So Wealthy

Global bond sell-off intensifies, as UK long-term borrowing costs pass 6% | Government borrowing | The Guardian

Bangladesh's Rural Women and Youth Are Transforming Their Futures | RELI Project

US ban on Canadian alcohol and dairy comes into effect as trade war drags on

UK tries to stop Trump's diesel export ban

Leveraging Tourism for Jobs and Growth in Sierra Leone

EU says Trump plan to ban US diesel exports would ‘negatively impact both sides’ | Oil | The Guardian

Germany pledges to phase out fossil fuels for first time with target of 2045 | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian

Rich nations must cut debt as global shocks push up borrowing costs, IMF chief tells BBC

European drugmakers say they are ‘losing ground’ to US and Chinese rivals | Pharmaceuticals industry | The Guardian

China’s stranglehold on rare earths must be ended, says hopeful supplier to EU | Critical minerals | The Guardian