MED-Amin network

World Grain, 05/11/2019 — In its new series of 10-year outlooks for corn, soybeans and wheat, the RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness group at Rabo AgriFinance foresees U.S. grain prices remaining stagnant as long-term trends for yield increases make up the difference in lower acreage while demand remains flat.  “The current challenges to profitability will likely and unfortunately continue for row crop producers,” said lead author Stephen Nicholson. “U.S. farmers will need to look at being low-cost producers if their long-term plans include growing any . . .

Morocco Mail, 01/11/2019 - La Commission européenne lance une consultation publique pour évaluer l’impact des accords d’association entre l’UE et les six pays partenaires méditerranéens La Commission européenne a lancé une consultation publique pour évaluer l’impact des accords commerciaux entre l’UE et les six pays partenaires méditerranéens : Algérie, Égypte, Jordanie, Liban, Maroc …

EU Cereals Statistics, 07/11/2019 - Weekly and monthly statistics on cereals prices, production and trade.

Food Business News, 08/10/2019 — Year-long negotiations come to an end with the United States and Japan officially signing a trade deal on Oct. 7. The agreement opens markets and will support expansion of U.S. food and agricultural exports, increase farm income, generate more rural economic activity, and promote job growth. The deal, previously announced last month, includes Japan eliminating or reducing tariffs on U.S. food and agricultural products. Many U.S. agriculture associations support this new deal as it levels the playing field with other countries that are

a part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (C.P.T.P.P.).

“As we hoped, the text confirms that the agreement will put U.S. wheat back on equal footing with wheat from Canada and Australia when it is implemented,” said Vince Peterson, president of U.S. Wheat Associates (U.S. Wheat). Mr. Peterson attended the event at the White House. “In addition, Japan has agreed to open country specific quotas for U.S. wheat and wheat product imports. The Trump administration and negotiators for both countries clearly understood what was at stake for U.S. wheat farmers and made sure to have our backs in this agreement.”

According to the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), U.S. wheat represents about 50% of all the wheat Japan imports each year, currently valued at more than $600 million. That volume represents more than 10% of total annual U.S. wheat exports.

Reuters, 28/10/2019 - There is a saying among farmers when times are hard on the Argentine Pampas: "Unsaddle the horse until the sun comes out". That saying is starting to spread in farm towns like Saladillo, after the populist-leaning Peronists won back power on Sunday.

This dusty soy, corn and cattle ranching town in the bread-basket province of Buenos Aires was a bastion of support for farm-friendly incumbent Mauricio Macri. He was seen here as a free-markets messiah when elected in 2015 after eight years of populist, protectionist rule.

Farmers “saddled up” by planting at record levels when Macri, only days into his administration, ditched the heavy handed trade controls and export limits that previous President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner had put on corn and wheat.

Now she is back as the running mate of president-elect Alberto Fernandez, who will take office in December. Questions are swirling about his policies for the farm sector, Argentina’s main source of sorely needed export dollars.

World Grain, 30/10/2019 — Australian researchers have developed a new method to identify drought-resilient wheat quickly, cheaply and accurately. Work by the scientists from The Australian National University (ANU), ARC Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology, and CSIRO Agriculture and Food could help breeders develop more drought-resilient crops that can produce more food and more profit with less water. “Our work may be instrumental for farmers to maximize food production in the face of increasingly severe drought,” said Arun Yadav from the Research School of . . .

Terre-net Média, 24//10/2019 - Dans son dernier appel d'offres clôturé mardi, l'Algérie en a retenu six, pour un total de 600 kt de blé meunier à 11,5 % de protéine, dont 450 kt d'origine française.

La demande internationale a été dynamisée par l’Algérie, qui est de nouveau passée aux achats dans le cadre d'un appel d’offres clôturé mardi, cette fois, pour près de 600 kt de blé meunier à expédier en décembre. Le pays ne divulgue pas les résultats de ses appels d'offres et les rapports d'achat sont basés sur des évaluations commerciales.

Résultat : quatre offres françaises sont présentes parmi les six qui ont été retenues, pour un total de 450 kt de blé origine France. Les prix se situent autour de 227 - 229 $/t C&F, soit près de 17 $/t de plus que pour le précédent tender datant de début octobre. 

Les blés argentins n'ont pas été sélectionnés malgré des prix apparemment compétitifs en FOB, mais qui sont devenus trop chers une fois le fret ajouté. 

OECD release, September 2019 - The 2019 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook projects that food supply growth over the next ten years will modestly outpace demand growth, primarily due to productivity gains. For most crop and livestock commodities, gradual real price declines are projected in the order of 1% per year.

At the same time, the Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS) Market Monitor notes that monthly price variations (due to a wide range of factors) are much bigger than the medium-term trend, often in the order of plus or minus 40%. In other words, the “noise” from short-term market disruptions is much greater than the “signal” from medium-term market fundamentals.

What are the implications for policymakers?

First, the overarching trend for lower real prices will impose income pressures on farmers who are not simultaneously improving their productivity, implying a continued need for adjustment policies. At the same time, risk management strategies - both proactive measures to mitigate systemic risks and build resilience, as well as remedial measures to reduce the negative impacts of unavoidable risks - will become even more important to address the effects of market volatility. Policies that respond to short-term income declines (be they due to price or yield shocks) by providing increased support and protection risk impeding long-term adjustment.

Second, while there is unlikely to be a shortfall in global food availability, global hunger will not be reduced by simply increasing food supplies . This is because for most of the world’s undernourished, the problem is not food availability, it is access to healthy and affordable food. The real priority - and the needed focus of policy - is on widespread poverty reduction. Specific policies will also be needed to counter wider problems of poor nutrition across developed and developing countries.

Third, ensuring improved sustainability will imply (directly or indirectly) pricing natural resources according to their wider social cost. Land sparing productivity growth and better water management will be essential to delivering sustainable increases in output, and to helping ensure that agriculture contributes to climate change mitigation. In some cases, policies can support the creation of markets; in other cases, policies may remunerate farm and other providers for environmental services.

Fourth, while adopting more plant-based diets, curbing over-consumption, and reducing food waste could take pressure off land resources and contain GHG emissions, there are trade-offs. For example, many people in poorer countries would benefit from more, not less, animal protein in their diets. Coherent policy packages will therefore need to be tailored to countries’ specific circumstances.

Fifth, the parts of the world where food demand is growing most strongly are not always the same as those where supply can be increased sustainably. Hence, trade will be increasingly important for food security. Moreover, countries that use trade barriers to stabilise internal prices effectively export instability onto world markets. Well-functioning input and output markets will be essential for food security and sustainable resource use - an international agreement to open markets further will bring the greatest benefit to the most people.

Reporterre, 05/11/2019 - Le mouvement de contestation à l’origine de la chute de Ben Ali est né dans la région agricole de Sidi Bouzid, dans le centre de la Tunisie. Les paysans y souffrent depuis 20 ans d’un modèle de production intensif tourné vers l’exportation. Rahal (gouvernorat de Sidi Bouzid, Tunisie), reportage.
Il n’a plus que ses yeux pour pleurer, mais les larmes ne coulent pas. Ses joues restent sèches comme cette terre qui se craquèle sous ses pas. Rafik est agriculteur à Rahal, un village d’une poignée d’âmes dans le gouvernorat de Sidi Bouzid. Depuis un an, comme ses voisins, il subit la sécheresse. De loin, sa parcelle a des airs d’oasis. Sur un fond jaune de montagnes arides se déploient les feuillages verts des oliviers et des amandiers. Trois hectares au total, près de 200 arbres, dont un examen attentif révèle la catastrophe qu’ils subissent. Sur les branches, les fruits sont atrophiés. À cause du manque d’eau, ils ne grossissent pas.

« Il n’y a plus de matière organique, ce sont des squelettes de sol »

S&P Global Platts, 21/10/2019 - The International Energy Agency has raised its near term forecast for global biofuels production, pointing to faster than expected growth in ethanol flows from China where output is forecast to more than triple within five years.

Total biofuel output is forecast to reach 190.3 billion liters (50.3 billion gallons) in 2024, a 25% increase from 2018 levels, according to the central scenario in the IEA's Renewables 2019 report published Monday. The report shows biofuels output grew by a faster than expected 7% to 154 billion liters last year while the 2023 output forecast is now 19.5billion liters higher than in last year's report.

The upward revisions mainly reflect improved market policy for biofuels in the US, Brazil and China, where biofuel output growth is now expected to be the highest of any country, the IEA said.

China and other Asian countries are rolling out policies to stimulate biofuel production in a bid to mitigate their growing dependence on imported oil as demand for road transport fuels rises fast.

In China, where ethanol is produced from corn and cassava, ethanol consumption currently satisfies around 2% of gasoline demand but output is forecast to more than triple to 11billion liters by 2024, the IEA said.

"Offsetting a larger portion of crude oil imports through higher ethanol consumption is the principal motivation behind plans to roll out E10 ethanol blends nationwide," the IEA said in its report.

Globally, the IEA estimates that all renewable energy will meet just 4.6% of transport fuel demand by 2024 -- with biofuels accounting for 93% of that -- as most biofuel mandates require blending levels of only 10% or less.

Successfull Agriculture, 22/10/2019 - Drought across most Ukrainian regions is likely to reduce the area sown in the 2020 winter grain harvest, the head of Ukraine's state weather forecasting centre said on Tuesday.Ukraine and Russia, its main rival on Black Sea grain exports, have been both looking for more rains this autumn. In Russia, though, warm and rainy weather has speeded up sowing in recent weeks and is expected to favour works in the next few weeks.

"The area will be smaller. The situation is far from optimal, but just about manageable," Mykola Kulbida told Reuters about Ukraine. "In recent days, the situation has improved slightly."

The Ukrainian agriculture ministry said farms had sown around 6.4 million hectares of winter grains as of Oct. 21 versus about 6.8 million at the same date in 2018.

The sown area included 5.5 million hectares of winter wheat and 777,000 hectares of winter barley.

Bloomberg, 28/10/2019 - America’s bread basket looks like it’s going gluten free: Dogged by lower prices and tepid demand, U.S. wheat farmers are poised to plant the fewest acres of winter varieties in 110 years.

That’s according to a Bloomberg survey. Analysts are predicting another year of declines for acreage as U.S. producers face stiff competition from global rivals gathering bumper crops. World supplies are so plentiful that futures for hard red winter wheat are down about 15% in 2019, one of the worst performances for commodities this year. In some parts of the southern U.S. Plains, wheat is now cheaper than corn, making the yellow grain a better bet.

World Grain, 22/10/2019 — Ukraine is expected to harvest a record 71.8 million tonnes, up from 70.1 million tonnes, with higher quantities of wheat and barley, Successful Farming reported, citing the agriculture ministry. The harvest is expected to include 28.1 million tonnes of wheat, up from 24.6 million tonnes in 2018 and 8.9 million tonnes of barley, up from 7.3 million tonnes. The ministry said the corn crop could drop to 32.8 million tonnes from 35.8 million tonnes harvested a year earlier. Ukraine has harvested 58.9 . . .

Miller Magazine, reminder on a release on 2016

Corn is the most interesting grain product in Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro. According to the corn production data of Albania between the seasons of 2006 and 2014, it can be seen that approximately 215 thousand tonnes to 380 thousand tonnes were produced.  This amount of 366 thousand tonnes corn in 2011 weakened to 360 thousand tonnes in 2012. Production increasing up to 372 thousand tonnes in 2013, reached to 380 thousand tonnes by showing a 8 thousand-ton increase.
Another important grain product made in Albania is wheat. It is seen that the wheat production is made at variable amounts between 230 thousand tonnes and 280 thousand tonnes. Wheat production recorded as 335 thousand tonnes in 2009, weakened to 280 thousand tonnes by decreasing since 2010 until 2014. Another important product after wheat is oat. Oat whose production was 22 thousand tonnes in 2006, increased to 30 thousand tonnes in 2014 by increasing since 2009.