Faster than expected growth in the UK's key services sector renews talk of a rise in interest rates.
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![]() Builders get back to work after bad weather earlier this year, but new orders continue slide
Graham Watson's insight:
More on the current slowdown in the construction sector, suggesting that the state of the high street has a role to play.
![]() Both petrol and diesel jumped 6p a litre in May as oil increased and the pound weakened, the RAC says.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'll put this here - the inflationary implications of this are perhaps the most significant consideration here. However, the article flags up the fact that there are two factors driving inflation. Demand-side and supply-side factors are both at play - and you should be able to draw a diagram to show this.
![]() Every region has been hit, says GMB – with London, Scotland and north-west worst affected
Graham Watson's insight:
The changing nature of the UK labour market is flagged up by this Guardian article that highlights the fact that manufacturing employment has declined by 600,000. Of course, at the same time, the total number of jobs has increased, so it might be argued that this is of little consequence.
However, again, it's an interesting example of the importance of sources - this study was undertaken on behalf of a trade union, the GMB, who have a vested interest in the sector because it's among the most heavily unionised.
![]() Car output rises on the back of investment in new models, but the industry's trade body repeats Brexit concerns.
Graham Watson's insight:
More push me, pull me. Cars sales fluctuating - down in March, up in April.
One of the dangers of looking at a snapshot of an economy's health.
![]() Two former members of Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee examine why UK growth lags its EU rivals
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian's monthly tussle between David Blanchflower and Andrew Sentence. One wondets which of them is more in tune with the Guardian's editorial tone.
![]() The Brexiters’ absurd customs plan would cost around £350m a week. I don’t remember seeing that on any big red buses, says Richard Reed, co-founder of Innocent Drinks
Graham Watson's insight:
More Brexit good news. Or not.
![]() Biggest sales jump in 18 months as shoppers return to the high street, but underlying trend still weak
Graham Watson's insight:
The short-term fascination with data is illustrated here with the push me - pull me nature of the economy illustrated by the graph accompanying this Guardian article. Last month's retail sales are up, but the trend is going in the opposite direction .
![]() The duchess wants to champion female empowerment. Letting women participate fully in the workforce would be a good start, says the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott
Graham Watson's insight:
Even the Guardian's gone Royal Wedding mad - although Larry Elliott does make some valid points about how genuine gender equality might be a way to boost productivity across the global economy, not least in the UK.
![]() Price pressures could return over the next few months even though the long term trend is likely to be down
Graham Watson's insight:
Kamal Ahmed casts his eye over the latest inflation data and suggests that, although inflation seems to be on the way down, there are doubts about whether it will stay low, if only as a result of the latest rises in petrol prices.
![]() The technology-based system could cost more than the UK contributes as an EU member, MPs are told.
Graham Watson's insight:
More good news regarding Brexit: the cost of new customs arrangements is estimated to by up to £20bn. Good news, eh!
Presumably that doesn't apply to those people flying about Europe in private jets - and possibly doesn't include other opportunity costs, such as the cost of employing more customs officials and so on.
Brexit's a story that keeps giving: you might also be amused to note that the first day after our scheduled withdrawal from the EU is? 1 April. I kid you not.
![]() The Chancellor pledges full-fibre connections for most homes and businesses by 2025.
Graham Watson's insight:
Fairly standard supply-side stuff - faster broadband equals higher productivity, right.
Or more watching of cat videos on YouTube, perhaps
![]() The cost of fuel is now at its highest level for three-and-a-half years.
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest macroeconomic news: bad news for real incomes as the upwards move of petrol prices once again squeezes real incomes, just at that moment when they had started rising again. Fuel is now at its most expensive in the past three-and-a-half years, and this will also put upwards pressure on inflation. |
![]() Ministers say "the time for action is now" with MPs set to vote on expansion in the coming weeks.
Graham Watson's insight:
Plans to expand Heathrow have been given the ministerial go-ahead although, given the time it's taken to get that far, the notion that "the time for action is now" is laughable.
Thus, campaigners on both sides will swing into action - those in favour emphasising the productivity benefits and those against the environmental costs. It will not be easy squaring this particular circle, not least because of the difficulties associated with monetising both benefits and costs.
![]() Ministers reach initial agreement with Japanese firm Hitachi over new Wylfa plant
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian notes that the announcement that the UK is planning to invest in a nuclear power station on Anglesey indicates a change of tack as regards energy policy. The interesting issue here is that the investment will require taxpayers money, something that is controversial in current circumstances.
![]() Energy secretary Greg Clark tells MPs the UK government is considering investing in Wylfa Newydd
Graham Watson's insight:
Good news for the UK's electricity generating capacity and, by definition, good news for the supply-side too.
That said - be warned - price elasticity of supply is very low in the sector.
![]() Treasury chooses only man on the shortlist to join the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Bank of England have selected another member of the MPC - Male Policy Committee? However, far from blaming the Bank, I has to say that I side with Diane Coyle, who offers a typically sensible assessment that the appointment speaks of a wider problem, and should be seen as such.
![]() Editorial: The growth in e-commerce is just one reason why well-known retailers are struggling. Taxing online firms is not the whole solution – but it is a start
Graham Watson's insight:
Simpler Guardian solution to the high street's current woes: a fairer tax system for online retailers, whose online presence is largely untaxed.
One downside - if such changes were straightforward, they would have already been implemented. And the first mover, faces the biggest risk of all - get the taxes wrong and some stores might leave, and it will also allow other nations to refine their tax systems in relation to the first mover.
![]() Business activity fails to recover as much as forecast from ‘beast from the east’
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian writes about the fate of the British economy post-Brexit. And revels in its distress.
![]() Meltdown Monday saw Northern cancel more than 300 services: just ‘Meltdown Monday’ saw Northern cancel more than 300 services, reflecting the absolute dire level of investment, says Phil McDuff, who writes on economics and social policy
Graham Watson's insight:
Phil McDuff's article is ostensibly about the state of Britain's railways but, in many regards, it's more about regional inequality, and the different levels of infrastructure investment across the country. It makes for sobering reading, and confirms what most people outside the Home Counties think about the nature of both transport investment and media coverage.
![]() Higher taxation is only way to address demands on buckling health service, thinktanks say
Graham Watson's insight:
Today's big story - Microeconomics/Macroeconomics. Both.
In brief, the latest research by the IFS and Health Foundation suggests that simply to maintain the current level of NHS services will cost substantial sums of money. Irrespective of the economics, the NHS is probably the toughest political issue for the major parties, and any prospective of 'cuts' is considered political suicide.
This story comes at around the time that the government is considering a long-term funding plan for the health service.
![]() Lower airfares helped bring down consumer price index to 2.4% in April, says ONS
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian on the latest inflation data - down - with lower airfares helping, albeit temporarily. It's likely to rise as fuel prices pick up, but most think that the overall trend id downwards, and as a result, it's unlikely that interest rates are going to rise in the near future.
![]() Pace of growth slows but the average UK property now costs £224,00 - £9,000 more than March 2017.
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest on the housing market isn't indicative of an economy that's full of confidence, in my view. It strikes me that the UK economy is wondering 'where next'.
![]() Retailer, which has already axed 22 outlets, reveals 14 more that will shut in the next year
Graham Watson's insight:
The retreat from the high street continues, with Marks & Spencet planning to close 100-plus stores. Not even the patron saint of underpants can save them. Saint Michael, obviously.
![]() The Brexit vote has lowered growth by up to 2%, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says.
Graham Watson's insight:
"Hector, I have a good news and a bad news for you".
Only fans of Sinhala teledrama of the 1990s might get that reference (i.e. no-one) but that is effectively what today has revealed. The Governor of the Bank of England has revealed that Bank research suggests that Brexit might have, temporarily, cost the economy nearly 2% of growth, but on the plus side, the high level of employment has improved the public finances faster than expected.
And there's also a bit of Boris Johnson sounding off - more heat than light, unsurprisingly. |
Make of this what you will...
Lots of intertwined macroeconomic variables, allowing for the drawing of relatively few conclusions.