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Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics May 20, 3:44 AM
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Protectionism in the form of tariffs is justified but the focus will be on whether Beijing retaliates
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Nepal has achieved significant development progress. Over the years, Nepal connected millions of people to energy, roads, water, and telecom services. The World Bank Group’s International Development Association (IDA) has been a trusted partner in Nepal’s development story for 60 years. Going forward, IDA will be critical to support Nepal’s homegrown green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID) agenda for the country’s sustainable and inclusive growth.
Graham Watson's insight:
The World Bank has supported Nepalese development for the past 60 years - helping foster development in an economy which has faced natural disasters, conflict and other challenges.
The International Development Association (IDA) has funded all sorts of improvements in education, healthcare, infrastructure and renewable energy, all of which help engender sustainable development.
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The owner of Vauxhall, Jeep and Fiat says it opposes EU measures against Chinese EVs and wants to compete ‘as a global company’
Graham Watson's insight:
The absurdity of the EU's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is laid bare by MNC Stellantis who've announced that they are opposed to the tariffs and want to use their position as a truly global company to compete with Chinese manufacturers.
Indeed, Stellantis themselves have a stake in a Chinese manufacturer, Leapmotor, so perhaps this is behind their opposition to the move, but it will certainly reduce efficiency in the sector.
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The tariffs are aimed at countering the alleged state support handed to China’s car manufacturing industry
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian explainer looks at how the EU's tariffs on Chinese vehicles is going to be implemented and its impact on the EU market for electric cars.
In short, higher prices, less choice and a loss of economic welfare.
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Francisca Endoli's business in Kibera, Nairobi boomed with the support of a smartphone. Watch Endoli's story of how digital connectivity creates opportunities for small businesses. Using a smartphone purchased through IFC-investee M-KOPA, she’s doubled business, helping to fund her children’s education.
Graham Watson's insight:
This International Finance Corporation clip shows how digital technology can help street traders in Kenya grow their business, illustrating the potentially transformative effect of such technologies.
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In the Sahel, adaptive social protection has proven to have strong positive impacts on household well-being, society, and the economy. It is a very profitable investment, reducing poverty and food insecurity, and contributing to greater productivity among the poorest. It enables governments to invest in systems and programs that help households improve their livelihoods, be more prepared to address climate change challenges, and better cope with shocks when they occur and afterwards.
Graham Watson's insight:
This World Bank clip looks at adaptive social protection as a way of fostering resilience against climate change and promoting sustainable development.
Adaptive social protection has four main pillars - essentially the development of social safety nets that are predicated upon tying this to schemes to enhance human capital. As a result, some of the poorest people in the world might be able to break out of the poverty cycle.
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Data shows that when Americans’ preferred party is in the White House, they’re more likely to boast of a booming economy – even if it’s untrue
Graham Watson's insight:
This strikes me as something that's rather self-evident. However, people are likely to interpret economic data more favourably when the party they support are in power.
Interestingly, it seems that even though the US economy is doing well at present, with unemployment low at around 4%, inflation falling and the economy growing, a large number of Americans think that they're experiencing a recession.
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Russia’s economy has been cut off from the global financial system - but it is still growing. Why?
Graham Watson's insight:
This excellent in-depth assessment of the Russian economy looks at whether or not the Ukraine related sanctions have harmed it.
The conclusion? Not for now - but is this just storing up long-term problems for the Russian economy. Zhou En-Lai would be in his element.
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The eurozone is the second major economy to cut its main lending rate this week after Canada.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Eurozone has seen the European Central Bank cut its interest rate, following a similar move by the Bank of Canada. The rate cut - to 3.75% from 4% - should provide a monetary stimulus to economic activity, although currently growth remains sluggish.
However, from a UK perspective, the question is whether this will prompt the Bank of England to follow suit.
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Clean air is a classic regional public goods case, as the air flows freely across the borders. It requires collective action by the countries, cities & municipalities sharing the same airshed. In Nepal, working towards lowering vehicular emissions is one of the most efficient ways to clear the air.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another clip looking at air pollution in South Asia, this time in the small mountain kingdom of Nepal, where development has seen increased demand for transport, and more car and motorcycle use.
However, this is associated - not only with dramatic music - but increased levels of pollution and given the prevailing geography, this is problematic, generating significant negative externalities. However, by encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles and electric bikes the World Bank is helping the country overcome them.
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Discover how modern technology is revolutionizing agriculture in Indonesia. The Strategic Irrigation Modernization and Urgent Rehabilitation Project is transforming the irrigation system, benefiting 350,000 farmers by enhancing water management and boosting productivity. Watch how this innovative approach is improving lives and promoting sustainable farming.
Graham Watson's insight:
Lots of economic issues raised here - the importance of agriculture to developing economies, scarcity and resource management, innovation and the clever use of technology to enhance agricultural productivity, the role of the World Bank. The list goes on.
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Editorial: G20 countries will discuss proposals to make the world’s wealthiest individuals pay more towards funding public goods. The debate is overdue
Graham Watson's insight:
Today's Guardian editorial makes the case - again - for a global wealth tax on the super-rich.
The politics of envy or a necessary corrective to rising levels of inequality? You choose.
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New lower rates of 3.75% and 4.75% respectively are likely to be introduced this week after drops in inflation
Graham Watson's insight:
Globally, it seems that there's going to be a loosening of monetary policy, with European and Canadian central banks are likely to lower rates to 3.75% and 4.75% respectively.
This is likely to stimulate aggregate demand in these economies.
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There is still an expensive war to fight, and if EU and UK politicians insist on using taxpayer funds for it, there will be little left to spend on public services
Graham Watson's insight:
Phillip Inman takes the temperature of the European economy - and posits that without an uptick in government spending, and the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the Ukraine war, 2024 will prove to be a disappointing one economically-speaking.
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Threat of EU tariffs may not be enough to slow carmaker in its attempt to challenge Tesla on global stage
Graham Watson's insight:
The Chinese are coming: Jasper Jolly looks at how Chinese giant, BYD have already made significant strides in entering the European market, the EU tariffs notwithstanding.
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America's central bank scaled back forecasts for cuts in 2024 despite annual inflation easing.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has held US interest rates where they were, at 5.5% to 5.25%, despite inflation easing. However, they've also indicated that they are going to cut rates once between now and the end of the year, suggesting a more cautious approach to the loosening of monetary policy, however, this hasn't well-received by some, who feel that it's unnecessarily restrictive.
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The decision comes as an investigation continues into what the EU calls China’s "unfair subsidisation".
Graham Watson's insight:
Interesting. Instead of a blanket tariff on all Chinese electric cars, the rate of EU tariffs is going to differentiate between different manufacturers, both Chinese and non-Chinese who use China as a production base from where to export cars.
One can only presume that such tariffs are trying to distinguish between different levels of state support being given to different car manufacturers. Is this a genuine attempt to level the playing field or is it still protectionism than operates against consumers' interests.
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Brussels is widely expected to introduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles coming to Europe.
Graham Watson's insight:
The EU are contemplating introducing tariffs of Chinese electric cars, although unlike the US, where a 100% tariff has been imposed, the EU equivalent is expected to be around 25%. This is to offset the effect of Chinese government subsidies worth around 30% of the value of the car and the article depicts this as appropriate, reasoning that it's an attempt to counter an 'unfair' competitive advantage.
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Experts believe Beijing will retaliate with measures that could hit European exports from cheese to cognac
Graham Watson's insight:
The trade war between the EU and China continues: the EU is expected to impose tariffs on electric vehicles and is expecting Chinese retaliation in turn.
Once again, you have to wonder who is gaining from this.
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US employers added 272,000 jobs in May which was far higher than economists expected.
Graham Watson's insight:
Rising job creation in the US might have implications for the conduct of monetary policy, with the prospect of further rate cuts being delayed because of concerns about the level of aggregate demand in the economy.
It will be interesting to see what the Federal Reserve will do.
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Waves of change: Japan’s female fishers fill the gap in a struggling industry | Japan | The Guardian
Although women are helping to address a desperate labour shortage, they face resistance in a sector dominated by men
Graham Watson's insight:
Another lovely little niche article, this piece looks at how increased female participation at the margin is helping overcome a labour shortage in the fishing sector in Japan. There's a degree of controversy though - instead of being involved in processing fish, these women are employed on the seas themselves, helping catch or farm fish or shellfish.
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Low-carbon electricity investment driven by solar projects but oil and gas spending still too high to meet climate goals
Graham Watson's insight:
Another snippet from the International Energy Agency, although some might think its greenwashing to an extent. They reckon that there will be twice the level of investment in renewables compared to fossil fuels this year, which you'd think would be good news for the environment.
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In the heart of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Bihar, India struggles with severe air pollution, with smoke from traditional wood and cow dung burning stoves being a major contributor. Despite progress in adopting cleaner fuels like LPG and biogas, many impoverished households still rely on these polluting methods. This video sheds light on the innovative efforts of women-led Self Help Groups (SHGs) to introduce improved stoves, reducing health risks for women and children and cutting down on Bihar’s ambient air pollution.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another World Bank clip, this time looking at how the adoption of cleaner stoves enhances standards of living in poor rural provinces, such as Bihar. An example of how development can be associated with a reduction in harmful negative externalities, such as air pollution.
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Analysis of policies of nearly 150 countries shows shortfall to hit target viewed as vital for transition from fossil fuels
Graham Watson's insight:
The International Energy Agency has looked at the commitments made by 150 countries to say whether they are likely to achieve the stated aim of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030.
In short, they arent't.
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Exclusive: level at highest in more than 30 years, say campaigners, who want ‘rapid and effective’ relief scheme
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that the rate of debt payment for less economically developed countries has reached a 30 year high, especially for those most vulnerable to climate change. The charity Debt Justice estimates that these countries are paying 15.5% in government revenues to external creditors, compared to 8% pre-Covid and 4% in 2010.
Such a rise in debt interest payments has a significant opportunity cost.
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Firms are placing their Christmas orders early to avoid empty shelves as shipping route disruption continues.
Graham Watson's insight:
This article highlights the impact of ongoing supply chain disruption in the Middle East, which has driven up the cost of shipping and has seen firms order their Christmas stock ahead of time.
And even having taken this course of action, it seems as though the price of some consumer durables with low profit margins is likely to rise in the months ahead.
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Larry Elliott produces a number of justifications for US protectionist measures against China: economic growth hasn't been accompanied by liberalization, China's disregard for intellectual property rights and the fact that it has hollowed out much of American manufacturing all suggest that there's a case for aggressive industrial policy and the imposition of tariffs.