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Complexity Digest
February 8, 2:04 PM
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Carlos M. Garrido, Francisco C. Santos, Elias Fernández Domingos, Ana M. Nunes & Jorge M. Pacheco Scientific Reports volume 15, Article number: 3865 (2025) The sustainable governance of Global Risky Commons (GRC)—global commons in the presence of a sizable risk of overall failure—is ubiquitous and requires a global solution. A prominent example is the mitigation of the adverse effects of global warming. In this context, the Collective Risk Dilemma (CRD) provides a convenient baseline model which captures many important features associated with GRC type problems by formulating them as problems of cooperation. Here we make use of the CRD to develop, for the first time, a bottom-up institutional governance framework of GRC. We find that the endogenous creation of local institutions that require a minimum consensus amongst group members—who, in turn, decide the nature of the institution (reward/punishment) via an electoral process—leads to higher overall cooperation than previously proposed designs, especially at low risk, proving that carrots and sticks implemented through local voting processes are more powerful than other designs. The stochastic evolutionary game theoretical model framework developed here further allows us to directly compare our results with those stemming from previous models of institutional governance. The model and the methods employed here are relevant and general enough to be applied to a variety of contemporary interdisciplinary problems. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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February 6, 4:38 PM
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INBAL ARNON, SIMON KIRBY, JENNY A. ALLEN, CLAIRE GARRIGUE, EMMA L. CARROLL, AND ELLEN C. GARLAND SCIENCE 6 Feb 2025 Vol 387, Issue 6734 pp. 649-653 Humpback whale song is a culturally transmitted behavior. Human language, which is also culturally transmitted, has statistically coherent parts whose frequency distribution follows a power law. These properties facilitate learning and may therefore arise because of their contribution to the faithful transmission of language over multiple cultural generations. If so, we would expect to find them in other culturally transmitted systems. In this study, we applied methods based on infant speech segmentation to 8 years of humpback recordings, uncovering in whale song the same statistical structure that is a hallmark of human language. This commonality, in two evolutionarily distant species, points to the role of learning and cultural transmission in the emergence of properties thought to be unique to human language. Read the full article at: www.science.org
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February 5, 1:43 PM
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Nicolas Rouleau and Michael Levin It is commonly assumed that a useful theory of consciousness (ToC) will, among other things, explain why consciousness is associated with brains. However, the findings of evolutionary biology, developmental bioelectricity, and synthetic bioengineering are revealing the ancient pre-neural roots of many mechanisms and algorithms occurring in brains – the implication of which is that minds may have preceded brains. Most of the work in the emerging field of diverse intelligence emphasizes externally observable problem-solving competencies in unconventional media, such as cells, tissues, and life-technology chimeras. Here, we inquire about the implications of these developments for theories that make a claim about what is necessary and/or sufficient for consciousness. Specifically, we analyze popular current ToCs to ask: what features of the theory specifically pick out brains as a privileged substrate of inner perspective, or, do the features emphasized by the theory occur elsewhere. We find that the operations and functional principles described or predicted by most ToCs are remarkably similar, that these similarities are obscured by reference to particular neural substrates, and that the focus on brains is more driven by convention and limitations of imagination than by any specific content of existing ToCs. Encouragingly, several contemporary theorists have made explicit efforts to apply their theories to synthetic systems in light of the recent wave of technological developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and organoid bioengineering. We suggest that the science of consciousness should be significantly open to minds in unconventional embodiments. Read the full article at: osf.io
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February 2, 11:10 AM
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Kolchinsky, A.; Marvian, I.; Gokler, C.; Liu, Z.-W.; Shor, P.; Shtanko, O.; Thompson, K.; Wolpert, D.; Lloyd, S. Entropy 2025, 27, 91
Maximizing the amount of work harvested from an environment is important for a wide variety of biological and technological processes, from energy-harvesting processes such as photosynthesis to energy storage systems such as fuels and batteries. Here, we consider the maximization of free energy—and by extension, the maximum extractable work—that can be gained by a classical or quantum system that undergoes driving by its environment. We consider how the free energy gain depends on the initial state of the system while also accounting for the cost of preparing the system. We provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions for increasing the gain of free energy by varying the initial state. We also derive simple formulae that relate the free energy gained using the optimal initial state rather than another suboptimal initial state. Finally, we demonstrate that the problem of finding the optimal initial state may have two distinct regimes, one easy and one difficult, depending on the temperatures used for preparation and work extraction. We illustrate our results on a simple model of an information engine. Read the full article at: www.mdpi.com
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February 1, 11:13 AM
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Elisa Heinrich Mora, Kaleda K. Denton, Michael E. Palmer, and Marcus W. Feldman PNAS 122 (3) e2417078122 Conformist and anticonformist biases in acquiring cultural variants have been documented in humans and several nonhuman species. We introduce a framework for quantifying these biases when cultural traits are ordered, with greater and lesser values, and either continuous (e.g., level of a behavior) or discrete (e.g., number of displays of a behavior). Unlike previous models, we do not measure a cultural variant’s popularity by its distance to the population mean, but rather by its distance to other variants. We find that conformity can produce a variety of population distributions that need not center around the initial population’s mean variant. Anticonformity may lead to highly polarized or uniformly distributed populations, depending on its strength and on individuals’ precision when copying others. Read the full article at: www.pnas.org
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January 29, 3:17 PM
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Marina Dubova, et al. PNAS 122 (5) e2401230121 The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D protein folding or climate forecasting). In this paper, we reexamine the parsimony principle in light of these scientific and technological advancements. We review recent developments, including the surprising benefits of modeling with more parameters than data, the increasing appreciation of the context-sensitivity of data and misspecification of scientific models, and the development of new modeling tools. By integrating these insights, we reassess the utility of parsimony as a proxy for desirable model traits, such as predictive accuracy, interpretability, effectiveness in guiding new research, and resource efficiency. We conclude that more complex models are sometimes essential for scientific progress, and discuss the ways in which parsimony and complexity can play complementary roles in scientific modeling practice. Read the full article at: www.pnas.org
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January 27, 11:50 PM
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Ana Maria Jaramillo, Mariana Macedo, Marcos Oliveira, Fariba Karimi, Ronaldo Menezes The participation of women in academia has increased in the last few decades across many fields (e.g., Computer Science, History, Medicine). However, this increase in the participation of women has not been the same at all career stages. Here, we study how gender participation within different fields is related to gender representation in top-ranking positions in productivity (number of papers), research impact (number of citations), and co-authorship networks (degree of connectivity). We analyzed over 80 million papers published from 1975 to 2020 in 19 academic fields. Our findings reveal that women remain a minority in all 19 fields, with physics, geology, and mathematics having the lowest percentage of papers authored by women at 14% and psychology having the largest percentage at 39%. Women are significantly underrepresented in top-ranking positions (top 10% or higher) across all fields and metrics (productivity, citations, and degree), indicating that it remains challenging for early researchers (especially women) to reach top-ranking positions, as our results reveal the rankings to be rigid over time. Finally, we show that in most fields, women and men with comparable productivity levels and career age tend to attain different levels of citations, where women tend to benefit more from co-authorships, while men tend to benefit more from productivity, especially in pSTEMs. Our findings highlight that while the participation of women has risen in some fields, they remain under-represented in top-ranking positions. Greater gender participation at entry levels often helps representation, but stronger interventions are still needed to achieve long-lasting careers for women and their participation in top-ranking positions. Read the full article at: arxiv.org
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January 24, 10:04 AM
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Giorgio Kaniadakis, Tiziana Di Matteo, Antonio Maria Scarfone & Giampiero Gervino The European Physical Journal B Volume 97, article number 203, (2024) This issue contains peer-reviewed papers based on selected contributions presented at the International Conference on Statistical Physics (SigmaPhi) held in Chania-Crete (Greece) from July 10th to July 14th, 2023 (http://sigmaphisrv.polito.it/). The challenge facing statistical physics today is expanding beyond conventional conceptions of physics, bringing together multiple research streams that were thought to be separate and independent for the majority of the 20th century. In this topical issue, we present a collection of papers that demonstrate the current applications of statistical physics in a variety of different fields, including networks, biophysics, statistical mechanics, kinetic theory, and cosmology. Read the full article at: link.springer.com
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January 18, 10:19 AM
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Babak Ravandi, Gordana Ispirova, Michael Sebek, Peter Mehler, Albert-László Barabási & Giulia Menichetti Nature Food (2025) The offering of grocery stores is a strong driver of consumer decisions. While highly processed foods such as packaged products, processed meat and sweetened soft drinks have been increasingly associated with unhealthy diets, information on the degree of processing characterizing an item in a store is not straightforward to obtain, limiting the ability of individuals to make informed choices. GroceryDB, a database with over 50,000 food items sold by Walmart, Target and Whole Foods, shows the degree of processing of food items and potential alternatives in the surrounding food environment. The extensive data gathered on ingredient lists and nutrition facts enables a large-scale analysis of ingredient patterns and degrees of processing, categorized by store, food category and price range. Furthermore, it allows the quantification of the individual contribution of over 1,000 ingredients to ultra-processing. GroceryDB makes this information accessible, guiding consumers toward less processed food choices. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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January 16, 10:22 AM
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Yiding Cao, Yingjun Dong, Minjun Kim, Neil G. MacLaren, Sriniwas Pandey, Shelley D. Dionne, Francis J. Yammarino & Hiroki Sayama npj Complexity Human collective tasks in teams and organizations increasingly require participation of members with diverse backgrounds working in networked social environments. However, little is known about how network structure and the functional diversity of member backgrounds would interact with each other and affect collective processes. Here we conducted three sets of human-subject experiments which involved 617 university students who collaborated anonymously in a collective ideation task on a custom-made online social network platform. We found that spatially clustered collectives with assortative background distribution tended to explore more diverse ideas than in other conditions, whereas collectives with random background distribution consistently generated ideas with the highest utility. We also found that higher network connectivity may improve individuals’ overall experience but may not improve the collective performance regarding idea generation, idea diversity, and final idea quality. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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Complexity Digest
January 11, 4:46 PM
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Francesco Bullo; Pietro Hiram Guzzi Recent years have seen a remarkable rise in the number of applications of network science in the fields of biology and medicine. Networks in biology and medicine aim to represent the organisation of living systems as a set of interacting elements at different scales, from the subcellular to the population level. The initial application of network science in medicine primarily focused on understanding the structure of protein interaction networks and using these relationships to hypothesize new disease genes or novel therapeutic targets. At the same time, network science has been widely applied in the context of molecular biology, for example to model biological processes as gene regulatory networks. Now, with the continual influx of biomedical big data, which is providing increasingly detailed information about various aspects of molecular biology and medicine, the scale and scope of the network models used in biology and medicine have skyrocketed. For example, improvements in medical imaging has greatly facilitated the study of brain interaction networks. Moving forward, it is imperative to develop approaches that holistically model the complexity inherent in biological systems. Network science, in particular, has the potential to answer critical questions in medicine that cannot be addressed through standard approaches. By capitalizing on tools designed to quantify the fundamental properties of large-scale complex systems, network science offers a complementary view to that of systems biology, which tends to focus on basic mechanisms and small to medium-scale biological models. We believe there has never been a better opportunity to employ network science to make sense of large, complex biological systems and tackle some of medicine’s most challenging open questions. In this white paper, we review several key areas where network science has the best opportunity to contribute to medical applications and posit several critical future directions for the field. Read the full article at: netscisociety.net
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January 8, 4:42 PM
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Edmonds, B., Hofstede, G. J., Koch, J., le Page, C., Lim, T., Lippe, M., Nöldeke, B., & van Delden, H. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 6, 18593. Socio-Ecological System modelling projects are becoming increasingly complicated, with multiple actors and aspects being the norm. Such projects can cause problems for the modellers when this involves different elements, goals, philosophies, etc., all pulling in different directions – we call this “Chimaera Modelling.” Although such situations are common when you talk to modellers, they do not seem to be explicitly discussed in the literature. In this paper, we attempt to turn this perceived “inside” phenomenon into an “outside” phenomenon and to start a debate to increase transparency among the modelling community. We discuss the different aspects which may be relevant to this problem to start this debate, including: the underlying philosophy, modelling goals, extent of choice the modellers have, different stages of modelling, and kinds of actors that are involved. We further map out some of the dimensions with which Chimaera Modelling connects. We briefly discuss these and propose to the community as a whole to work on their methodological development, feasibility, risks and applicability as their resolution is far beyond the scope of this paper. We end with a brief description of the broad possible approaches to such situations. Our main message is a call for recognition of Chimaera Modelling as a likely side-effect of multi-stakeholder, multi-purpose projects, and to take this into account proactively at the project team level and be transparent about the tensions and contradictions that underly such modelling. Read the full article at: sesmo.org
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January 4, 8:12 AM
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Dino Pedreschi, Luca Pappalardo, Emanuele Ferragina, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Albert-László Barabási, Frank Dignum, Virginia Dignum, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Fosca Giannotti, János Kertész, Alistair Knott, Yannis Ioannidis, Paul Lukowicz, Andrea Passarella, Alex Sandy Pentland, John Shawe-Taylor, Alessandro Vespignani Artificial Intelligence Volume 339, February 2025, 104244 Read the full article at: www.sciencedirect.com
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February 6, 7:15 PM
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Oriol Cabanas-Tirapu, Lluís Danús, Esteban Moro, Marta Sales-Pardo & Roger Guimerà Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 1336 (2025) Modeling human mobility is critical to address questions in urban planning, sustainability, public health, and economic development. However, our understanding and ability to model flows between urban areas are still incomplete. At one end of the modeling spectrum we have gravity models, which are easy to interpret but provide modestly accurate predictions of flows. At the other end, we have machine learning models, with tens of features and thousands of parameters, which predict mobility more accurately than gravity models but do not provide clear insights on human behavior. Here, we show that simple machine-learned, closed-form models of mobility can predict mobility flows as accurately as complex machine learning models, and extrapolate better. Moreover, these models are simple and gravity-like, and can be interpreted similarly to standard gravity models. These models work for different datasets and at different scales, suggesting that they may capture the fundamental universal features of human mobility. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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February 5, 4:03 PM
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Abbas Shoja-Daliklidash, Morteza Nattagh-Najafi, Nasser Sepehri-Javan In this paper, we address a longstanding challenge in self-organized criticality (SOC) systems: establishing a connection between sandpiles and complex networks. Our approach employs a similarity-based transfer function characterized by two parameters, =(r1,r2). Here, r1 quantifies the similarity of local activities, while r2 governs the filtration process used to convert a weighted network into a binary one. We reveal that the degree centrality distribution of the resulting network follows a generalized Gamma distribution (GGD), which transitions to a power-law distribution under specific conditions. The GGD exponents, estimated numerically, exhibit a dependency on . Notably, while both decreasing r1 and r2 lead to denser networks, r2 plays a more significant role in influencing network density. Furthermore, the Shannon entropy is observed to decrease linearly with increasing r2, whereas its variation with r1 is more gradual. An analytical expression for the Shannon entropy is proposed. To characterize the network structure, we investigate the clustering coefficient (cc), eigenvalue centrality (e), closeness centrality (c), and betweenness centrality (b). The distributions of cc, e, and c exhibit peaked profiles, while b displays a power-law distribution over a finite interval of k. Additionally, we explore correlations between the exponents and identify a specific parameter regime of and k where the e−k, c−k, and b−k correlations become negative. Read the full article at: arxiv.org
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February 3, 12:13 PM
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Alberto Antonioni & Eugenio Valdano Communications Physics volume 8, Article number: 51 (2025) Traditional academic training of early-career researchers is often conditional to the funding, structure and managerial style of the research group. With the workshop Complexity72h (www.complexity72h.com), we present an original format where early-stage researchers—from Master students to early-stage group leaders—can experience the whole scientific process, testing and acquiring writing, collaborative and leading skills in just 72 h. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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February 1, 2:48 PM
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Leila Hedayatifar, Alfredo J. Morales, Dominic E. Saadi, Rachel A. Rigg, Olha Buchel, Amir Akhavan, Egemen Sert, Aabir Abubaker Kar, Mehrzad Sasanpour, Irving R. Epstein, Yaneer Bar-Yam Predicting dynamic behaviors is one of the goals of science in general as well as essential to many specific applications of human knowledge to real world systems. Here we introduce an analytic approach using the sigmoid growth curve to model the dynamics of individual entities within complex systems. Despite the challenges posed by nonlinearity and unpredictability in system behaviors, we demonstrate the applicability of the sigmoid curve to capture the acceleration and deceleration of growth, predicting an entitys ultimate state well in advance of reaching it. We show that our analysis can be applied to diverse systems where entities exhibit nonlinear growth using case studies of (1) customer purchasing and (2) U.S. legislation adoption. This showcases the ability to forecast months to years ahead of time, providing valuable insights for business leaders and policymakers. Moreover, our characterization of individual component dynamics offers a framework to reveal the aggregate behavior of the entire system. We introduce a classification of entities based upon similar lifepaths. This study contributes to the understanding of complex system behaviors, offering a practical tool for prediction and system behavior insight that can inform strategic decision making in multiple domains. Read the full article at: arxiv.org
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January 31, 3:07 PM
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Fengmei Ma, Heming Wang, Asaf Tzachor, César A. Hidalgo, Heinz Schandl, Yue Zhang, Jingling Zhang, Wei-Qiang Chen, Yanzhi Zhao, Yong-Guan Zhu & Bojie Fu Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 1107 (2025) The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a comprehensive framework for societal progress and planetary health. However, it remains unclear whether universal patterns exist in how nations pursue these goals and whether key development areas are being overlooked. Here, we apply the product space methodology, widely used in development economics, to construct an ‘SDG space of nations’. The SDG space models the relative performance and specialization patterns of 166 countries across 96 SDG indicators from 2000 to 2022. Our SDG space reveals a polarized global landscape, characterized by distinct groups of nations, each specializing in specific development indicators. Furthermore, we find that as countries improve their overall SDG scores, they tend to modify their sustainable development trajectories, pursuing different development objectives. Additionally, we identify orphaned SDG indicators — areas where certain country groups remain under-specialized. These patterns, and the SDG space more broadly, provide a high-resolution tool to understand and evaluate the progress and disparities of countries towards achieving the SDGs. Read the full article at: www.nature.com
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January 28, 2:34 PM
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Elias Dritsas and Maria Trigka Information 2025, 16(1), 8; The rapid growth of data and the increasing complexity of modern networks have driven the demand for intelligent solutions in the information and communications technology (ICT) domain. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool, enabling more adaptive, efficient, and scalable systems in this field. This article presents a comprehensive survey on the application of ML techniques in ICT, covering key areas such as network optimization, resource allocation, anomaly detection, and security. Specifically, we review the effectiveness of different ML models across ICT subdomains and assess how ML integration enhances crucial performance metrics, including operational efficiency, scalability, and security. Lastly, we highlight the challenges and future directions that are critical for the continued advancement of ML-driven innovations in ICT. Read the full article at: www.mdpi.com
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January 25, 9:46 AM
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Chris Fields, Michael Levin Physics of Life Reviews • An information-theoretic approach to biology renders “objects” and “processes” interchangable at every scale. • Morphogenesis is a process of memory construction at every scale. • Life depends on lateral information flows between its component lineages at every scale. • Viewing living systems as multi-scale competency architectures forefronts communication via scale-appropriate interfaces, as opposed to manipulation of components, as a strategy for both therapuetic intervention and bioengineering. Read the full article at: www.sciencedirect.com
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January 20, 9:48 AM
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Stuart Bartlett, Andrew W. Eckford, Matthew Egbert, Manasvi Lingam, Artemy Kolchinsky, Adam Frank, Gourab Ghoshal This paper explores the idea that information is an essential and distinctive feature of living systems. Unlike non-living systems, living systems actively acquire, process, and use information about their environments to respond to changing conditions, sustain themselves, and achieve other intrinsic goals. We discuss relevant theoretical frameworks such as ``semantic information'' and ``fitness value of information''. We also highlight the broader implications of our perspective for fields such as origins-of-life research and astrobiology. In particular, we touch on the transition to information-driven systems as a key step in abiogenesis, informational constraints as determinants of planetary habitability, and informational biosignatures for detecting life beyond Earth. We briefly discuss experimental platforms which offer opportunities to investigate these theoretical concepts in controlled environments. By integrating theoretical and experimental approaches, this perspective advances our understanding of life's informational dynamics and its universal principles across diverse scientific domains. Read the full article at: arxiv.org
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January 17, 11:14 AM
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Roberto Murcio, Balamurugan Soundararaj The accurate estimation of human activity in cities is one of the first steps towards understanding the structure of the urban environment. Human activities are highly granular and dynamic in spatial and temporal dimensions. Estimating confidence is crucial for decision-making in numerous applications such as urban management, retail, transport planning and emergency management. Detecting general trends in the flow of people between spatial locations is neither obvious nor easy due to the high cost of capturing these movements without compromising the privacy of those involved. This research intends to address this problem by examining the movement of people in a SmartStreetSensors network at a fine spatial and temporal resolution using a Transfer Entropy approach. Read the full article at: arxiv.org
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January 13, 5:56 PM
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Nanotube bridge networks grow between the most abundant photosynthetic bacteria in the oceans, suggesting that the world is far more interconnected than anyone realized. Read the full article at: www.quantamagazine.org
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January 9, 4:43 AM
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Matthew Brouillet, Georgi Yordanov Georgiev Processes 2024, 12(12), 2937 Self-organization in complex systems is a process associated with reduced internal entropy and the emergence of structures that may enable the system to function more effectively and robustly in its environment and in a more competitive way with other states of the system or with other systems. This phenomenon typically occurs in the presence of energy gradients, facilitating energy transfer and entropy production. As a dynamic process, self-organization is best studied using dynamic measures and principles. The principles of minimizing unit action, entropy, and information while maximizing their total values are proposed as some of the dynamic variational principles guiding self-organization. The least action principle (LAP) is the proposed driver for self-organization; however, it cannot operate in isolation; it requires the mechanism of feedback loops with the rest of the system’s characteristics to drive the process. Average action efficiency (AAE) is introduced as a potential quantitative measure of self-organization, reflecting the system’s efficiency as the ratio of events to total action per unit of time. Positive feedback loops link AAE to other system characteristics, potentially explaining power–law relationships, quantity–AAE transitions, and exponential growth patterns observed in complex systems. To explore this framework, we apply it to agent-based simulations of ants navigating between two locations on a 2D grid. The principles align with observed self-organization dynamics, and the results and comparisons with real-world data appear to support the model. By analyzing AAE, this study seeks to address fundamental questions about the nature of self-organization and system organization, such as “Why and how do complex systems self-organize? What is organization and how organized is a system?”. We present AAE for the discussed simulation and whenever no external forces act on the system. Given so many specific cases in nature, the method will need to be adapted to reflect their specific interactions. These findings suggest that the proposed models offer a useful perspective for understanding and potentially improving the design of complex systems. Read the full article at: www.mdpi.com
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January 4, 8:15 PM
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AKARSH KUMAR, CHRIS LU, LOUIS KIRSCH, YUJIN TANG, KENNETH STANLEY, PHILLIP ISOLA, DAVID HA With the recent Nobel Prize awarded for radical advances in protein discovery, foundation models (FMs) for exploring large combinatorial spaces promise to revolutionize many scientific fields. Artificial Life (ALife) has not yet integrated FMs, thus presenting a major opportunity for the field to alleviate the historical burden of relying chiefly on manual design and trial-and-error to discover the configurations of lifelike simulations. This paper presents, for the first time, a successful realization of this opportunity using vision-language FMs. The proposed approach, called Automated Search for Artificial Life (ASAL), (1) finds simulations that produce target phenomena, (2) discovers simulations that generate temporally open-ended novelty, and (3) illuminates an entire space of interestingly diverse simulations. Because of the generality of FMs, ASAL works effectively across a diverse range of ALife substrates including Boids, Particle Life, Game of Life, Lenia, and Neural Cellular Automata. A major result highlighting the potential of this technique is the discovery of previously unseen Lenia and Boids lifeforms, as well as cellular automata that are open-ended like Conway’s Game of Life. Additionally, the use of FMs allows for the quantification of previously qualitative phenomena in a human-aligned way. This new paradigm promises to accelerate ALife research beyond what is possible through human ingenuity alone. Read the full article at: distill.pub
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