Papers

Juniper Lovato, Antoine Allard, Randall Harp, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne

Personal data is not discrete in socially-networked digital environments. A single user who consents to allow access to their own profile can thereby expose the personal data of their network connections to non-consented access. The traditional (informed individual) consent model is therefore not appropriate in online social networks where informed consent may not be possible for all users affected by data processing and where information is shared and distributed across many nodes. Here, we introduce a model of "distributed consent" where individuals and groups can coordinate by giving consent conditional on that of their network connections. We model the impact of distributed consent on the observability of social networks and find that relatively low adoption of even the simplest formulation of distributed consent would allow macroscopic subsets of online networks to preserve their connectivity and privacy. Distributed consent is of course not a silver bullet, since it does not follow data as it flows in and out of the system, but it is one of the most straightforward non-traditional models to implement and it better accommodates the fuzzy, distributed nature of online data.

J.C. Correa, H. Laverde-Rojas, F. Marmolejo-Ramos, J. Tejada, Š. Bahník

Citations are often used as a metric of the impact of scientific publications. Here, we examine how the number of downloads from Sci-hub as well as various characteristics of publications and their authors predicts future citations. Using data from 12 leading journals in economics, consumer research, neuroscience, and multidisciplinary research, we found that articles downloaded from Sci-hub were cited 1.72 times more than papers not downloaded from Sci-hub and that the number of downloads from Sci-hub was a robust predictor of future citations. Among other characteristics of publications, the number of figures in a manuscript consistently predicts its future citations. The results suggest that limited access to publications may limit some scientific research from achieving its full impact.

Chintan Shah, Nima Dehmamy, Nicola Perra, Matteo Chinazzi, Albert-László Barabási, Alessandro Vespignani, Rose Yu

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19.

We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.

Daniel B Larremore, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, Roy Parker

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the re-opening of societies and the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust surveillance, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are usually too low to detect, followed by an exponential growth of virus, leading to a peak viral load and infectiousness, and ending with declining viral levels and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model surveillance effectiveness considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective surveillance, including time to first detection and outbreak control, depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that surveillance should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.

Precise mapping, spatial structure and classification of all the human settlements on Earth
Emanuele Strano, Filippo Simini, Marco De Nadai, Thomas Esch, Mattia Marconcini

Human settlements (HSs) on Earth have a direct impact on all natural and societal systems but detailed and quantitative measurements of the locations and spatial structures of all HSs on Earth are still under debate. We provide here the World Settlement Footprint 2015, an unprecedented 10 m resolution global spatial inventory of HSs and a precise quantitative analysis and spatial model of their coverage, geography and morphology. HSs are estimated to cover 1.47% of the habitable global dry-land surface and can be classified, by means of their deviation from scaling structure, into four main pattern typologies. A minimal spatial model, based on dynamic interactions between dispersal and centralized urbanization, is able to reproduce all the settlement patterns across regions. Our dataset and settlement model can be used to improve the modelling of global land use changes and human land use cycles and interactions and can ultimately advance our understanding of global anthropization processes and human-induced environmental changes.

Mohsen Mosleh, Katelynn Kyker, Jonathan D. Cohen & David G. Rand

Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 3099 (2020)

The scale of human interaction is larger than ever before—people regularly interact with and learn from others around the world, and everyone impacts the global environment. We develop an evolutionary game theory model to ask how the scale of interaction affects the evolution of cognition. Our agents make decisions using automatic (e.g., reflexive) versus controlled (e.g., deliberative) cognition, interact with each other, and influence the environment (i.e., game payoffs). We find that globalized direct contact between agents can either favor or disfavor control, depending on whether controlled agents are harmed or helped by contact with automatic agents; globalized environment disfavors cognitive control, while also promoting strategic diversity and fostering mesoscale communities of more versus less controlled agents; and globalized learning destroys mesoscale communities and homogenizes the population. These results emphasize the importance of the scale of interaction for the evolution of cognition, and help shed light on modern challenges. Humankind is in a period of unprecedented cognitive sophistication as well as globalization. Here, using an evolutionary game theory model, the authors reveal ways in which the transition from local to global interaction can have both positive and potentially negative consequences for the prevalence of cognitive sophistication in the population.

Marcos Oliveira, Diego Pinheiro, Mariana Macedo, Carmelo Bastos-Filho & Ronaldo Menezes
Applied Network Science volume 5, Article number: 24 (2020)

Swarm intelligence is the collective behavior emerging in systems with locally interacting components. Because of their self-organization capabilities, swarm-based systems show essential properties for handling real-world problems, such as robustness, scalability, and flexibility. Yet, we fail to understand why swarm-based algorithms work well, and neither can we compare the various approaches in the literature. The absence of a common framework capable of characterizing these several swarm-based algorithms, transcending their particularities, has led to a stream of publications inspired by different aspects of nature without a systematic comparison over existing approaches. Here we address this gap by introducing a network-based framework—the swarm interaction network—to examine computational swarm-based systems via the optics of the social dynamics. We investigate the structure of social interaction in four swarm-based algorithms, showing that our approach enables researchers to study distinct algorithms from a common viewpoint. We also provide an in-depth case study of the Particle Swarm Optimization, revealing that different communication schemes tune the social interaction in the swarm, controlling the swarm search mode. With the swarm interaction network, researchers can study swarm algorithms as systems, removing the algorithm particularities from the analyses while focusing on the structure of the swarm social interaction.

Going without sleep for too long kills animals but scientists haven’t known why. Newly published work suggests that the answer lies in an unexpected part of the body.

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

One hundred years after it was proposed, the Ising model is used to understand everything from magnets to brains.

Dieu My T. Nguyen, Michael L. Iuzzolino, Aaron Mankel, Katarzyna Bozek, Greg J. Stephens, Orit Peleg

Honey bee swarms are a landmark example of collective behavior. To become a coherent swarm, bees locate their queen by tracking her pheromones, but how can distant individuals exploit these chemical signals which decay rapidly in space and time? Here, we combine a novel behavioral assay with the machine vision detection of organism location and scenting behavior to track the search and aggregation dynamics of the honey bee Apis mellifera L. We find that bees collectively create a communication network to propagate pheromone signals, by arranging in a specific spatial distribution where there is a characteristic distance between individuals and a characteristic direction in which individuals broadcast the signals. To better understand such a flow–mediated directional communication strategy, we connect our experimental results to an agent–based model where virtual bees with simple, local behavioral rules, exist in a flow environment. Our model shows that increased directional bias leads to a more efficient aggregation process that avoids local equilibrium configurations of isotropic communication, such as small bee clusters that persist throughout the simulation. Our results highlight a novel example of extended classical stigmergy: rather than depositing static information in the environment, individual bees locally sense and globally manipulate the physical fields of chemical concentration and airflow.

Jie Sun, Abd AlRahman AlMomani, Erik Bollt

Boolean functions and networks are commonly used in the modeling and analysis of complex biological systems, and this paradigm is highly relevant in other important areas in data science and decision making, such as in the medical field and in the finance industry. Automated learning of a Boolean network and Boolean functions, from data, is a challenging task due in part to the large number of unknowns (including both the structure of the network and the functions) to be estimated, for which a brute force approach would be exponentially complex. In this paper we develop a new information theoretic methodology that we show to be significantly more efficient than previous approaches. Building on the recently developed optimal causation entropy principle (oCSE), that we proved can correctly infer networks distinguishing between direct versus indirect connections, we develop here an efficient algorithm that furthermore infers a Boolean network (including both its structure and function) based on data observed from the evolving states at nodes. We call this new inference method, Boolean optimal causation entropy (BoCSE), which we will show that our method is both computationally efficient and also resilient to noise. Furthermore, it allows for selection of a set of features that best explains the process, a statement that can be described as a networked Boolean function reduced order model. We highlight our method to the feature selection in several real-world examples: (1) diagnosis of urinary diseases, (2) Cardiac SPECT diagnosis, (3) informative positions in the game Tic-Tac-Toe, and (4) risk causality analysis of loans in default status. Our proposed method is effective and efficient in all examples.

Thomas van Es
Adaptive Behavior

The free energy principle (FEP) is an information-theoretic approach to living systems. FEP characterizes life by living systems’ resistance to the second law of thermodynamics: living systems do not randomly visit the possible states, but actively work to remain within a set of viable states. In FEP, this is modelled mathematically. Yet, the status of these models is typically unclear: are these models employed by organisms or strictly scientific tools of understanding? In this article, I argue for an instrumentalist take on models in FEP. I shall argue that models used as instruments for knowledge by scientists and models as implemented by organisms to navigate the world are being conflated, which leads to erroneous conclusions. I further argue that a realist position is unwarranted. First, it overgenerates models and thus trivializes the notion of modelling. Second, even when the mathematical mechanisms described by FEP are implemented in an organism, they do not constitute a model. They are covariational, not representational in nature, and precede the social practices that have shaped our scientific modelling practice. I finally argue that the above arguments do not affect the instrumentalist position. An instrumentalist approach can further add to conceptual clarity in the FEP literature.

Federico Battiston, Giulia Cencetti, Iacopo Iacopini, Vito Latora, Maxime Lucas, Alice Patania, Jean-Gabriel Young, Giovanni Petri

The complexity of many biological, social and technological systems stems from the richness of the interactions among their units. Over the past decades, a great variety of complex systems has been successfully described as networks whose interacting pairs of nodes are connected by links. Yet, in face-to-face human communication, chemical reactions and ecological systems, interactions can occur in groups of three or more nodes and cannot be simply described just in terms of simple dyads. Until recently, little attention has been devoted to the higher-order architecture of real complex systems. However, a mounting body of evidence is showing that taking the higher-order structure of these systems into account can greatly enhance our modeling capacities and help us to understand and predict their emerging dynamical behaviors. Here, we present a complete overview of the emerging field of networks beyond pairwise interactions. We first discuss the methods to represent higher-order interactions and give a unified presentation of the different frameworks used to describe higher-order systems, highlighting the links between the existing concepts and representations. We review the measures designed to characterize the structure of these systems and the models proposed in the literature to generate synthetic structures, such as random and growing simplicial complexes, bipartite graphs and hypergraphs. We introduce and discuss the rapidly growing research on higher-order dynamical systems and on dynamical topology. We focus on novel emergent phenomena characterizing landmark dynamical processes, such as diffusion, spreading, synchronization and games, when extended beyond pairwise interactions. We elucidate the relations between higher-order topology and dynamical properties, and conclude with a summary of empirical applications, providing an outlook on current modeling and conceptual frontiers.