Today, existing home sales blew out estimates, coming in at 5,860,000. With new home sales, pending home sales, housing starts, housing permits, and purchase applications already in v-shape recovery mode, this last metric completes the v-shaped recovery across the board for housing.
Let’s just say this is the final nail in the coffin for the housing bear troll camps that were so sure that this time, housing would finally crash. COVID didn’t get the housing market, but it did pull a fast one on those pesky bears.
Look, I get it. For the casual observers of the market, it may seem intuitive that with all the economic chaos we suffered during the first half of 2020, the housing market would take a drastic hit – from which it would be difficult to recover. Massive job losses and stay-at-home measures seem like a perfect storm for a disastrous housing market.
That belief, however, assumes that one does not understand the two main drivers of housing: demographics and mortgage rates. All that other stuff, my friends, is just stamp collecting. For the last many years I have been writing that the years 2020-2024 would have the best demographics for housing ever recorded in U.S. history. As it happens, these fabulous demographics are accompanied by the lowest mortgage rates ever recorded in history.
This one-two punch is why housing was able to rebound so soundly and will stay stable for some years to come as long as mortgage rates stay below 4.5%.
We saw hints of a flourishing housing market prior to the COVID crisis. In February, for the first time since the start of the century, the U.S. housing market outperformed all other sectors of the economy. I have talked about this before, that the years 2020-2024 would be the time where housing could outperform. Then the massive shock of COVID-19 happened right in the first year of my working thesis.
The fear of the virus and the stay-at-home measures which curtailed the ability to even look at homes put a short-term halt on the promised growth. The floundering economy then caused the mortgage market meltdown in early March, causing mortgage rates to quickly spike. It was crazy for a minute and at that time I needed to keep reminding people that this was a temporary blip that would mostly clear up by July 15. And it did, because none of that chaos changed the fundamentals – demographics were still excellent and mortgage rates were just going lower.
The second part of this story that folks seem to forget is that the existing home sales market only needs 4 million mortgage buyers a year to remain stable. This means only 4 million folks out of the 133 million people working during the worst days of COVID-19 are needed to qualify for a mortgage to keep the market stable.
Compare this to auto sales, which require 16-18 million sales per year to remain stable – and even that sector is rebounding. Note too, that the housing market for the last many years has been composed of 15-20% cash buyers – that is a big chunk of buyers that don’t need a mortgage in order to purchase