Overproduction of Elites and Social Instability: A Short Introduction to Cliodynamics A conversation with Peter Turchin, interviewed by Nicolas Sperry-Guillou
Tracing the historical dynamics of science can reveal how scientific knowledge emerges and evolves over time. Because scientific knowledge is embedded in increasingly complex systems, comprising shifting relationships among people, the organisms and matter they study, technology, data, publications, and the concepts they utilize, scholars are looking beyond traditional historiographical methods towards quantitative and computational tools. Big data, network analysis, and machine learning enhance the scale and speed of analysis, but these methods often ignore or erase the critical roles that context (like time period, geography, and discipline) and different types of data (like image and audio data) play in the development of new knowledge. In this talk, I present context- and data-sensitive computational methods that extend efforts to model the evolution of science as a complex system. These methods reveal when new knowledge emerges and how the features of old scientific information constrain features of new scientific knowledge.
In 1905 the biologist Edmund Selous wrote of his wonderment when observing a flock of starlings flying overhead “they circle; now dense like a polished roof, now disseminated like the meshes of some vast all-heaven-sweeping net...wheeling, rending, darting...a madness in the sky”. He went on to speculate “They must think collectively, all at the same time, or at least in streaks or patches — a square yard or so of an idea, a flash out of so many brains”. Today, we still know relatively little about how the network of social interactions connect brains—and thus how sensing and information processing arises in such organismal collectives. Employing automated tracking, computational reconstruction of sensory information, and immersive ‘holographic’ virtual reality (VR) experiments, I will discuss newly-discovered geometric principles of collective decision-making that occur across scales of biological organization; from neural networks to the social networks of animal groups. I will also show how this finding can impact humans, including how it can be translated to highly effective control laws for swarming robots, as well as how it has transformed our understanding of locust swarms, one of the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth.
What is life? What is intelligence? What is… complexity? Neil deGrasse Tyson and co-hosts Chuck Nice and Gary O’Reilly learn how complexity science, chaos theory, and emergence could be the key to understanding our place in the universe with David Krakauer, president of the Santa Fe Institute and professor in complex systems.
The eighth Dialogue was carried out by Sara Imari Walker and Carlos Gershenson. They explored the role of information in the emergence of complexity and the mechanisms underlying organization in natural and artificial systems. The title was: Information and the Emergence of Complexity. The session took place on November 19th, 2025. It was moderated by IAIS Board member Gordana Dodig-Crnkovic.
Theoretical computer science has over the years sought more and more refined answers to the question of which mathematical truths are knowable by finite beings like ourselves, bounded in time and space and subject to physical laws. I'll tell a story that starts with Godel's Incompleteness Theorem and Turing's discovery of uncomputability. I'll then introduce the spectacular Busy Beaver function, which grows faster than any computable function. Work by me and Yedidia, along with recent improvements by O'Rear, Riebel, and others, has shown that the value of BB(549) is independent of the axioms of set theory; on the other end, an international collaboration proved last year that BB(5) = 47,176,870. I'll speculate on whether BB(6) will ever be known, by us or our AI successors. I'll next discuss the P!=NP conjecture and what it does and doesn't mean for the limits of machine intelligence. As my own specialty is quantum computing, I'll summarize what we know about how scalable quantum computers, assuming we get them, will expand the boundary of what's mathematically knowable. I'll end by talking about hypothetical models even beyond quantum computers, which might expand the boundary of knowability still further, if one is able (for example) to jump into a black hole, create a closed timelike curve, or project oneself onto the holographic boundary of the universe.
Venki Ramakrishnan 30th Ulam Lecture Night 2 The knowledge of aging and death has driven human culture, including our religions, ever since we became aware of our mortality. For much of our existence there was not much we could do about it. But over the past few decades, biology has made major advances in our understanding of the causes of aging, opening for the first time the possibility of intervening in the process. At the same time, the combination of longer lives and reduced fertility rates means that many societies are faced with an aging population. This has led to large investments in aging research from governments and private industry funded largely by tech billionaires, resulting in both real advances and a large amount of hype. In this talk, Venki Ramakrishnan will discuss some of the key findings about why and how we age and die and prospects for the future. He will also explore the possible consequences of societies with extremely long-lived populations.
Computing is not just a branch of engineering. It touches on language and philosophy, the nature of life, and how we think. It is a liberal art. And as a result, we need a humanistic approach to computing. By understanding the history of technology more deeply, as well as how it connects to so many disciplines, we will be better positioned to make this approach the default in how we relate to computing.
Sam Arbesman's new book "The Magic of Code" explores this. But, he is also interested in more broadly developing what he is calling the Humanistic Computation Project, which is aimed at creating a living syllabus, a community, and a framework for these ideas.
Watch"Humanistic Computation and The Magic of Code" Dr. Sam Arbesman at: www.youtube.com
In the mid-20th century, Alan Turing and John von Neumann developed the theoretical underpinnings of computer science, neuroscience, and AI. They also founded the field of theoretical biology, showing how living systems must necessarily be computational in order to grow, heal, and reproduce. Recent experiments by Blaise Agüera y Arcas’ team at Google have drawn new connections between theoretical biology and computer science, showing how “digital life” can evolve in a purely random universe. Such artificial life doesn’t evolve the way Darwinian evolutionary theory usually presumes, through random mutation and selection, but rather through symbiogenesis, wherein small replicating entities merge into progressively bigger ones. This may be the creative engine behind biological evolution too. In this lecture, Agüera y Arcas will describe how symbiosis explains both life’s origins and its increasing complexity. He’ll also draw connections to social intelligence theories, which suggest that similar symbioses have powered intelligence explosions in humanity’s lineage and those of other big-brained species. Finally, he’ll argue that both modern human intelligence and AI are best understood through this symbiotic lens.
"The Human in the Machine: navigating the myths and realities of AI towards a future where we shape technology responsibly", Inaugural Lecture of Professor Taha Yasseri, Workday Professor of Technology and Society (2023), 01 April 2025, Faculty of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences.
Gabriele Scheler co-founded the Carl Correns Foundation for Mathematical Biology. Carl Correns was her great grandfather, one of the early pioneers in genetics. Gabriele is a computational neuroscientist, whose goal is to build models of cellular computation, and much of her focus is on neurons. We discuss her theoretical work building a new kind of single neuron model. She, like Dmitri Chklovskii a few episodes ago, believes we’ve been stuck with essentially the same family of models for a neuron for a long time, despite minor variations on those models. The model Gabriele is working on, for example, respects the computations going on not only externally, via spiking, which has been the only game in town forever, but also the computations going on within the cell itself. Gabriele is in line with previous guests like Randy Gallistel, David Glanzman, and Hessam Akhlaghpour, who argue that we need to pay attention to how neurons are computing various things internally and how that affects our cognition. Gabriele also believes the new neuron model she’s developing will improve AI, drastically simplifying the models by providing them with smarter neurons, essentially. We also discuss the importance of neuromodulation, her interest in wanting to understand how we think via our internal verbal monologue, her lifelong interest in language in general, what she thinks about LLMs, why she decided to start her own foundation to fund her science, what that experience has been like so far. Gabriele has been working on these topics for many years, and as you’ll hear in a moment, she was there when computational neuroscience was just starting to pop up in a few places, when it was a nascent field, unlike its current ubiquity in neuroscience.
Some remarks on how to model thinking in the brain and my personal journey from logic and symbolic computation via neuroscience to a new type of brain-inspired AI.
We see consciousness in AI the same way we see faces in clouds, says neuroscientist Anil Seth. He explores the all-too-human tendency to project inner life onto machines that are brilliant mimics, not sentient beings, and gives a definitive answer to the urgent question: Will AI ever gain consciousness?
Through a series of fascinating examples, physicist and data-visualisation specialist César Hidalgo shows how scientific laws of time, space and value allow us to chart how knowledge moves and spreads in the 21st century, helping us understand the emergence of hot and coldspots for scientific and economic growth and development.
Why is it that Silicon Valley in California or Zhongguancun in Beijing are such successful hubs for innovation, where other locations have failed? What sustains the exponential growth in some technologies, like computers, while we forgot how to make Polaroid film?
Life thrives far from equilibrium, driven by dynamic energy flows that build complexity and break symmetry. These flows create patterns, from the mesmerizing murmur of starlings to the rippling protein waves in cells, revealing a self-organizing dance in the physics of living systems. By understanding these patterns, we can understand the arrow of time, energy, and the processes that sustain life, challenging us to perceive existence as a vibrant, evolving ballet.
Nikta is an associate professor in the department of physics at MIT and the physics of living systems group. She studies how to adapt and extend physics concepts to describe how tiny biological components give rise to living organisms. Her research group combines concepts from physics, biology, and engineering to decode non-equilibrium mechanisms in active living matter and exploit these mechanisms to engineer functional, active materials.
"The Divided Mind" I will talk about this recently published book: why did I write it, what was I trying to say that it would have been difficult to communicate in a peer-reviewed paper, and who was I hoping might read it? I will summarise the content and key themes of the book along the following lines, but I hope to leave a good amount of time for discussion. Briefly, the book tries to tell two occasionally interwoven histories. First, the world history of what we now call schizophrenia, especially the controversy between Freudian (brainless) and Kraepelinian (mindless) tribes, the dark crisis of the Kraepelinian concept of dementia praecox before and during World War 2, and its long-lasting imprint on how we continue to think about schizophrenia to this day. Second, my personal story as I became a psychiatrist and tried to get to grips with scientific questions about the origins of schizophrenia and the prospects for better treatments or preventions in future.
Venki Ramakrishnan 30th Ulam Lecture Night 1 Ramakrishnan will provide a history of molecular visualization, as well as take us through his work at the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology in Cambridge, England, where his team determined the atomic structure of the 30S ribosomal subunit and its complexes with ligands and antibiotics. Everyone is familiar with DNA, but by itself, DNA is just an inert blueprint for life. It is the ribosome — an enormous molecular machine made up of a million atoms — that makes DNA come to life, turning our genetic code into proteins and therefore into us. He will talk about the ribosome (the "Gene Machine"), and how his team learned about its structure. He will also share some recent developments, including the development of cryoEM — a powerful technique used to determine the structure of three-dimensional structure of biological molecules at near-atomic resolution.
We welcome Carlos Gershenson to The Complexity Lounge. Carlos will propose that one of the main goals of science—the search for regularities in nature—points toward the concept of balance. He will discuss how complexity, evolution, criticality, and antifragility can be seen as resulting from different types of balance. The session will review specific mechanisms that promote balance, such as adaptation and self-organization, and conclude by exploring the philosophical implications of a worldview grounded in its scientific study.
Alex Pentland. Stanford HAI Fellow and MIT Toshiba Professor
Current AI is designed as a rough emulation of human intelligence. If instead we designed AI to complement human intelligence, we can achieve much more useful performance. I will show examples from finance, science, health, patents, and policy.
Physicist and astrobiologist Sara Imari Walker proposes a new paradigm for using physics to deepen our understanding of what we recognize as life. Assembly theory is a framework that uses the physics of molecular complexity to open a new path to identify where the threshold lies for life to arise from non-life, drawing in insights from new discoveries on the nature of historical contingency and time itself.
La fisica e astrobiologa Sara Imari Walker propone un nuovo paradigma per utilizzare la fisica al fine di approfondire la nostra comprensione di ciò che riconosciamo come vita. La teoria dell'assemblaggio è un modello che utilizza la fisica della complessità molecolare per aprire una nuova strada all'identificazione di dove si trova la soglia affinché la vita possa emergere dalla non-vita, attingendo a spunti da nuove scoperte sulla natura della contingenza storica e del tempo stesso.
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