At the moment of writing these words, December gold futures trade near $3,935, after touching $3,904.10 earlier today. Most of Monday's $70.70 rebound is gone, and silver fell below Friday's low this morning.

Gold Forecast: High Yields Limit Gains Despite Record Fund Holdings

La demande d'investissement et les achats des banques centrales continuent de soutenir les prix de l'or

En comparaison, les privés sont plus prudents, observe Louise Street du World Gold Council. Des incertitudes géopolitiques persistantes sont un facteur de soutien.

China's gold consumption edged up 0.28 percent year-on-year to 684.62 metric tons in the first three quarters of 2026, driven by robust investment demand for gold bars and coins as major Chinese mining groups simultaneously expanded overseas production to cushion a domestic supply contraction, the China Gold Association said on Wednesday.

(Kitco Commentary) - Americans head to the polls today in midterm elections that will decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governor seats, and precious metals traders are watching closely. Forecasters broadly expect Democrats to retake the House, with prediction markets such as Kalshi putting the odds at roughly 90%, while control of the Senate remains a toss-up amid voter concerns over inflation, tariffs and the conflict with Iran. A Democratic House would likely constrain President Trump’s policy agenda and could mean gridlock over taxes and spending.For gold and silver, analysts say the outcome matters less as a headline than for its effect on Treasury yields and the US dollar, which set the tone for precious metals. Silver enters the vote from a weaker position, having broken below its 2026 lows with oversold signals building, while gold continues to hold above its own. History offers only a loose guide. World Gold Council data going back to 1970 show gold rising 62% of the time in the six months after a midterm, with a median gain of just 2%, and researchers do not agree that past midterm patterns provide a reliable rule for 2026.If Democrats win both the House and the Senate, the impact on gold could be muted until traders turn their attention to deficit spending and the ever-growing national debt, now $40.5 trillion, or roughly $120,000 for every US citizen, about half of whom are taxpayers. That same mechanism could lift silver by reviving investment demand, which has been largely absent since the start of February.A Democratic sweep would not necessarily mean more government spending, since any new spending bills would still require the President’s signature. Even so, the money would likely flow through different channels, and those could benefit gold and silver to an even greater extent. Additional capital to fund the war with Iran, now more than 250 days old with no resolution, would be a hard sell at best to a Democratic-controlled House and Senate. The sooner the conflict ends, the sooner gold and silver can recover and resume their traditional role as safe havens.Democratic economic policy has historically favored larger fiscal packages for social infrastructure and domestic manufacturing. Increased federal spending often widens national deficits, which can weaken the dollar and serves as a classic macro catalyst for hard assets such as silver. A Democratic Congress is also highly likely to pass or expand green energy legislation, which would significantly boost industrial demand for physical silver.Still, a Democratic victory in both chambers could weigh on precious metals if it pushes real interest rates higher for longer and keeps competing Treasury yields elevated. The bearish implications would almost certainly affect gold more than silver, since industrial demand could offset some of that pressure.In theory, then, a “blue sweep” could lift both metals, with a considerably more bullish effect on silver than on gold. Such an outcome could hardly come at a more critical moment for the white metal, which has been flirting with $50, a key price level dating back to 1980. Silver now trades only about $0.20 below that mark, which also represents the 2011 peak. If silver cannot regain its footing above this threshold, the next support levels do not appear until $47 and then $42. For more daily commentary on the precious metals visit this link.Wishing you as always, good trading.

Responsable du développement des formations et de l’alternance à l’UFR Arts, Lettres et Langues de Nancy, Matthieu Morand vient de valider un master en musicologie avec mention très bien, vingt ans après avoir interrompu son cursus universitaire. Prochaine étape : un doctorat consacré au lien entre musique metal et musique classique.  Un rendez-vous manqu

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver continue to struggle in the face of persistent inflation pressures and higher bond yields, but while gold has managed to hold critical support around $4,000 an ounce, silver has fallen to fresh year-to-date lows. According to one research firm, the grey metal could face further selling pressure as weakening investment demand and improving physical market liquidity weigh on prices.In their latest precious metals report, analysts at Metals Focus said that silver's underperformance has pushed the gold-silver ratio above 76 for the first time since December 2025, up from a range of 60 to 70 through much of the summer.Although the ratio remains below its 2020-2025 average of 82, the analysts said there is room for it to move higher as silver continues to face significant headwinds. The gold-silver ratio has rallied more than 11% so far this year.Spot silver last traded at $52.06 an ounce, down more than 3% on the day; at the same time, spot gold last traded at $4,015.60 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day.The analysts explained that silver's higher volatility relative to gold has amplified the broader selling pressure across precious metals as the ongoing war in Iran drives energy prices higher and fuels inflation concerns.Although the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, it maintained its tightening bias as policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, followed by at least two additional increases in 2027. The prospect of higher interest rates and rising bond yields continues to raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.Between the two precious metals, Metals Focus noted that gold has been better insulated from these headwinds because of its monetary characteristics and continued safe-haven demand.The analysts said that central bank purchases and long-term investors seeking protection against geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty have helped support gold prices. Silver, meanwhile, remains more exposed to industrial demand and speculative investment flows.Beyond the challenging macroeconomic environment, Metals Focus said that weakening physical market demand is also weighing on silver prices.The analysts noted that the severe liquidity constraints that helped drive silver to record highs in 2025 and early 2026 have largely disappeared.They pointed out that by the end of September, silver inventories in London vaults had risen to 932 million ounces, their highest level in nearly four years.More importantly, available inventories, excluding metal held in physically backed exchange-traded products, have increased to approximately 267 million ounces, nearly double their October 2025 lows.The increase in available supply comes as investment demand continues to weaken.According to Metals Focus, global silver-backed exchange-traded products have seen holdings decline by approximately 60 million ounces since the start of the year, releasing previously unavailable metal back into the physical market.The analysts said that while initial outflows reflected profit-taking after silver reached record highs, a lack of investor conviction has prevented meaningful new investment.Speculative interest has also weakened significantly. The report noted that net managed money long positions in CME silver futures have fallen to just 17 million ounces, their lowest level since February 2024.Physical bullion demand has provided little support.According to the firm's survey of leading mints, primary silver bullion coin sales plunged more than 80% in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, falling to their lowest quarterly level since the survey began in 2010.Although sales recovered modestly in the third quarter, they remained 22% below year-earlier levels.Looking ahead, the research firm expects silver's physical market fundamentals to remain weak as elevated prices weigh on jewellery and silverware consumption.At the same time, industrial demand is facing growing pressure as manufacturers reduce silver usage or substitute other materials, particularly in the photovoltaic sector.As a result, Metals Focus expects the global silver market deficit to narrow further this year before shifting into a surplus in 2027.The changing supply-and-demand outlook suggests that silver is unlikely to experience another significant physical market squeeze in the near term.Despite the bearish outlook, Metals Focus does not expect silver's underperformance against gold to last indefinitely.The analysts said that silver will likely continue taking its direction from gold over the next 12 months, with higher interest rates and bond yields creating further downside risks in the near term.See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices were sharply lower in early U.S. trading Friday, as renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher and reinforced inflation concerns despite fresh evidence of moderating U.S. wage growth. Precious metals remained under selling pressure following Thursday's declines, with gold slipping below $4,000.00 an ounce and silver falling to its lowest levels of the year. Spot gold was trading near $3,958.80 an ounce, down $61.34, or 1.32%, while spot silver was trading near $50.080, down $2.120, or 4,06%. Gold was heading toward a second consecutive monthly decline, while silver continued to underperform amid concerns about industrial demand and restrictive monetary policy.The latest U.S. employment cost figures provided some evidence that labor-related inflation pressure is moderating, although wage growth remains elevated. The employment cost index increased 0.8% in the third quarter, matching expectations and slowing from 0.9% in the second quarter. Wages and salaries increased 0.7%, compared with 0.9% in the previous quarter, while benefit costs rose 0.9%, down from 1.0%. Total compensation costs increased 3.4% from a year earlier, unchanged from the annual rate recorded in June, while wages and salaries rose 3.1% and benefit costs increased 3.9%. The slowdown in quarterly wage growth provides some relief from concerns about persistent labor-cost inflation, although annual compensation growth remains above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's longer-term inflation objective.The employment report followed Thursday's stronger-than-expected third-quarter gross domestic product figures and another increase in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, accelerating from 2.2% in the second quarter, supported by resilient consumer spending and business investment. September headline personal consumption expenditures inflation increased 0.5% on the month and 3.6% annually, while core PCE inflation rose 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively. The combination of accelerating economic growth and persistent underlying inflation continues to complicate the case for easier monetary policy, even as Friday's wage figures suggest some moderation in labor costs.Market positioning remains focused on the possibility of another Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December following Wednesday's decision to leave the benchmark federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain rates, with two policymakers favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Futures markets assigned approximately an 83% probability to a December increase following Thursday's GDP and inflation releases, with the latest wage data providing some counterweight to those expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined 7 basis points Thursday to approximately 4.98%, as weakness in major technology shares encouraged demand for government bonds. However, gold continued to fall despite lower yields, reflecting the influence of persistent inflation concerns, expectations for further tightening and broader precious metals liquidation.The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation deteriorated further Friday following another attack on a commercial tanker in the strategic waterway, highlighting the continuing risks to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Maritime security authorities confirmed that a tanker was struck by explosive devices attached to its hull by a small boat, although responsibility for the incident had not been established. The attack came amid persistent threats to regional shipping and uncertainty about the prospects for renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Diplomatic initiatives involving Qatar and other regional mediators have yet to produce an agreement, while disagreements over sanctions, maritime security and the broader conflict continue to prevent a lasting settlement.Crude oil prices rose sharply following the latest attack, with December Brent futures climbing toward $117.15 a barrel and WTI advancing to approximately $103.79. Brent was heading toward a monthly gain of approximately 13%, while WTI was on course for an increase of around 15%, reflecting sustained concerns about Gulf energy supplies and the possibility of further military escalation. The risk of renewed confrontation has become particularly important ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, with uncertainty surrounding the next phase of U.S.-Iran relations adding to the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. Although alternative export routes have helped mitigate some of the disruption to Gulf petroleum shipments, continued tanker attacks and elevated maritime security costs remain significant obstacles to restoring normal commercial flows through Hormuz.For gold, the continuing confrontation supports defensive demand, but the inflationary consequences of elevated crude oil prices have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. The metal's continued decline despite geopolitical instability and lower Treasury yields suggests that liquidation pressure and the interest rate outlook remain dominant influences on near-term price action. Silver has suffered significantly greater losses as the broader precious metals decline coincides with concerns about industrial demand, elevated energy costs and restrictive borrowing conditions. Its break below previously established technical support has added to selling pressure, leaving the metal increasingly vulnerable to further liquidation.Global equity markets were weaker before the U.S. open as disappointing corporate earnings and renewed concerns about artificial intelligence investment weighed on technology shares. S&P 500 futures declined approximately 1.0%, while Nasdaq futures dropped 2.3% and Dow futures were little changed. Alphabet's sharp decline Thursday was followed by additional pressure on major technology companies after cautious earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel. European equity markets were mixed, while Asian markets were mostly lower as investors assessed corporate earnings, higher energy prices and the outlook for global monetary policy. The combination of rising crude prices, elevated financing costs and uncertainty surrounding large-scale artificial intelligence investment continued to undermine risk appetite, although the resulting demand for government bonds provided limited support for precious metals.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading near $103.79 a barrel, while December Brent crude futures were near $117.15, reflecting renewed concerns about Gulf energy supplies. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 5.0% area following Thursday's decline. The U.S. dollar remained comparatively firm, while persistent expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening and elevated energy prices continued to limit gold's ability to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,015.00 to $4,039.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move above the upper boundary needed to ease the prevailing bearish technical pressure. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,975.00, with a deeper downside target at $3,943.00. First resistance is seen at $4,015.00 and then at $4,039.00. First support is seen at $3,975.00 and then at $3,943.00.Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $52.690 to $54.680 resistance zone, with a sustained recovery through that area needed to improve the near-term technical outlook. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $50.710, with a deeper downside target at $49.510. First resistance is seen at $52.690 and then at $54.680. Next support is seen at $50.710 and then at $49.510.See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

Gold Forecast: BofA Sees Higher 2027 Averages as OCBC Warns on Selling Risk

The World Gold Council sees enormous potential for digital gold, but questions about security, accessibility, and trust could determine whether it gains widespread acceptance.

China's central bank ramped up its gold purchases for the eighth straight month in October, posting the biggest monthly increase in its official gold reserves in over three years, official data showed on Saturday.

The report, compiled by experts at one of the UK’s leading retailers of fine gold and silver, The Gold Bullion Company, reveals which countries are increasing

Le marché de l'or a connu de fortes fluctuations du 2 au 7 novembre, avec plusieurs séances marquées par des hausses et des baisses importantes. Après avoir oscillé entre 137 et 140 millions de VND/once en début de semaine, le prix de l'or SJC a atteint un pic entre 141,5 et 144,5 millions de VND/once, avant de refluer brusquement et de clôturer la semaine entre 138 et 141 millions de VND/once.

La Monnaie de Paris vient de lancer le Marianne-or, une monnaie d’investissement en or pur accessible au grand public. Quatre pièces sont disponibles. Pour la première fois, les épargnants peuvent opter pour un format dématérialisé. Dans un contexte économique

Le premier iPhone pliable d'Apple n'a pas échappé à Caviar. Le spécialiste russe de la customisation de luxe propose plusieurs versions de l'iPhone…

Gold (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday as early US midterm election results heighten political uncertainty and weigh heavily on the US Dollar (USD).

The Goldcorp founder, who was called “delusional” for buying gold in 2001, says central banks have put a floor under the price, the majors will be forced to buy juniors, and QE is coming back.NEW ORLEANS (Kitco News) - Frank Giustra has three conditions for selling his gold.“Give me world peace, honest politicians, and benevolent bankers,” the Goldcorp founder said. “If you can give me all three of those things, I will walk away from gold.”He isn’t expecting any of them..embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }Giustra has spent more than 45 years in the business and is a longtime board member of the International Crisis Group. He spoke with Kitco News on Oct. 29 at the New Orleans Investment Conference. His memoir, “The Money Dilemma: My Unlikely Path to Wealth, Philanthropy, and Peace,” was published Nov. 3.“There are dozens of black swans lurking in the shadows just waiting to come out,” he said. When one does, he expects policymakers to reach for easy money again. “I absolutely guarantee you’ll see a lot of QE in our lifetimes.”‘A very dangerous game of chicken’The nearest risk, in his view, is Iran. Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel the morning of the interview. Asked whether markets were pricing peace too early, Giustra said: “100%.”“I’m more in the camp right now that the US is going to attack after the midterms,” he said.If that happens, he expects Iran to hit back across the region. Oil “could potentially go a lot higher if there’s a second, a third strike,” he said, and “we could force the global economy into a deep recession or a depression if this gets out of hand.”“I think the whole strategy of the US on this has been wrong from the start,” he said. But he also sees diplomacy moving behind the scenes. “They are actually communicating with each other, and they both are trying to come to an arrangement,” he said. He expects a diplomatic solution eventually. The question, he said, is whether there is another attack first.“Listen, I hope I’m wrong. I really hope I’m wrong.”Oil has whipsawed since. Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 a barrel on Nov. 2 on hopes for diplomacy. It swung again on Nov. 3 after The Wall Street Journal reported a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island.‘It’s gonna be chaotic’The midterms were days away when Giustra sat down, and he expected a rough night for Republicans. “Anything can happen and... you can’t trust polls anymore,” he said. “But it sure looks like the House is gonna be a sweep.” The Senate, he said, was “getting worse and worse for the Republicans.”Going into the vote, Democrats needed a net gain of three seats to take the House. Prediction markets gave them about a 73% chance of winning the Senate, according to Yahoo Finance.Giustra doesn’t expect a clean result. “I don’t think we’re gonna have a clean outcome next week when the midterms happen. I think there’ll be a lot of accusations,” he said. If Democrats win, he expects a wave of investigations and a Washington that won’t be able to “govern properly.” Voters, he said, are focused on two things: “affordability and corruption.”‘You debase the dollar, gold goes up’Giustra’s long-term case for gold runs through the cost of war. He pointed to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which he said “probably cost $8 trillion.” In 2021, Brown University’s Costs of War project put the total for the U.S. wars that followed the Sept. 11 attacks at about $8 trillion.“You slowly bankrupt the nation. You have to debase your currency in order to stay in the game,” Giustra said. “You debase the dollar, gold goes up. It’s that simple.” He added: “That’s math. That’s not a theory.”He sees a floor under the price from central banks, which he said are “slowly de-dollarizing and replacing with gold.” The World Gold Council reported Nov. 3 that central banks bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter. That’s the fastest pace since 2024, with gold well below its January record.Gold hit a record $5,589.38 an ounce on Jan. 28 and was trading back near $4,000 at the time of the interview. Giustra’s advice for owners is to sit tight. “If you buy physical gold, you buy it to hold it,” he said. “Gold preserves generational wealth. That’s what it does. Always has, always will.” ‘No Lamborghinis in the driveway’Giustra knows what an unloved gold market looks like. In 2001, with gold under $300 an ounce, he and Frank Holmes toured institutional investors in Toronto, New York, London and Zurich. Their case was that gold was coming back.“We were almost laughed out of these places,” he said. “People were just shaking their heads, going, ‘You’re delusional.’”His first raise for Wheaton River, the company that became Goldcorp, was $100 million to buy the Luismin gold and silver mines in Mexico, and it was hard to get done. A year later, raising $250 million for Argentina’s Alumbrera, “we had to actually stop the roadshow” because it was oversold, he said.Today, he said, the mood is “hopeful, but not by any means ecstatic.” Even with gold near $5,600 in January, he didn’t see the champagne. “I don’t see any Lamborghinis parked in the driveway,” he said of a recent conference. “We’re not in the traditional bull market because the public at large has not bought into it yet.”He said many U.S. institutions still look at gold investors and think, “Are you one of those guys?” When that money does show up, “you’ll know, ’cause the volumes will be really high.”Miners are waiting, for nowHigher costs are hitting producers. Agnico Eagle said Oct. 28 that diesel for its Nunavut mines ran about 45% over budget. Its all-in sustaining costs rose nearly 24% from a year earlier.Giustra isn’t selling. “I own Agnico and I would still own it, ’cause I believe that gold is not gonna go down,” he said. “If it goes down, it’s not gonna be by much.”He also owns Aris Mining in Colombia, which says its projects support a longer-term goal of about 1 million ounces a year, pending permits.Big producers flush with cash will eventually have to buy juniors to replace their reserves, Giustra said, in copper as well as gold. “So far, it looks like they’re waiting,” he said. “I’m saying that ultimately they’re not gonna have any choice.”He sees the biggest prize in copper, where he expects “a very, very large supply deficit.” The majors, he said, have spent decades expanding old mines instead of building new ones.Colombia is one place he’s betting on. The new government is “aggressively going after foreign investment in both mining and oil and gas,” Giustra said. The U.S. and Colombia signed a critical minerals framework on Sept. 8. On Oct. 9, Copper Giant, another company he’s invested in, signed a strategic mining area contract with Colombia’s National Mining Agency for ground next to its Mocoa project.‘Okay, now what?’The book picks up where most success stories end. At 39, Giustra left Yorkton Securities, where he was chairman and chief executive, and retired. Three months later, the Bre-X scandal hit, and the market “went dead for five years,” he said.Retirement didn’t take. “Four months later I’m going, ‘Oh, God, I’m bored,’” he said. He launched Lionsgate in 1997.The dilemma in the title is what comes after the money. “You exit a deal and you make a huge win. And you’re sitting there going, ‘Okay, now what?’” Giustra said. His answer, starting in 2007, was philanthropy. He said he has given about $200 million to his poverty initiative alone.“Once you have peace, you don’t need anything else,” he said.His father, a nickel miner in Sudbury, Ontario, never quite believed the money was real, then worried his son would blow up. Giustra told him not to worry. “I’m actually a very conservative guy,” he said. “I mean, I’m in the risk business.”Lionsgate, he said, was the hardest thing he has ever done. What did it teach him?“Oh, I learned a lot about cash flow.”WATCH: Frank Giustra’s full interview from the New Orleans Investment Conference is above. Hear how Goldcorp was built from a $100 million raise nobody wanted, and his 30-second pitch for gold.His book, “The Money Dilemma,” is available now. His writing is at frankgiustra.com.Kitco News on-site coverage of the New Orleans Investment Conference is presented by Dakota Gold.See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies. 

De la guerre à la paix, et au spirituel: le pape Léon XIV, dans sa visite argentine, recevra en cadeau un calice préparé depuis des mois par un célèbre orfèvre argentin

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Friday that with high inflation and the ​economy solid, the path of US monetary policy was "straightforward," but with an open ‌question about the pace of any future rate increases."Inflation's high, demand is solid, unemployment is relatively low. So I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward," Barkin said on SiriusXM's Business Briefing when asked if ​the Fed would need to raise rates again. "The question, though, is pace ... We ​signaled a gradual approach. Gradual makes sense when you're not much behind the ⁠curve, where you want time to learn."At this point, however, Barkin said that businesses in ​his mid-Atlantic and southeastern district report both rising cost pressures and a willingness to pass those ​costs along, with booming investment in artificial intelligence boosting demand and an array of prices."There are a lot of cost pressures that are hitting American businesses," from diesel fuel to computer chips or the wages for ​skilled labor, Barkin said. "In the context of four or five years of elevated inflation I ​think it is just easier to make the argument... We are going to have to" raise prices."That lived experience ‌of ⁠inflation does affect future inflation, unless of course the Fed does something about it."The next step could come as soon as the Fed's December 8-9 meeting when investors expect policymakers to approve another quarter-point rate hike.The Fed held rates steady at its meeting this week, but in ​a new policy statement ​said "the accumulation of more ⁠information" would help decide the path of policy. The new language was taken by many analysts as a signal of rate hikes to ​come, absent some unexpected drop in inflation that is proving more persistent ​than many ⁠policymakers had expected.Data this week showed recent economic growth and recent inflation both stronger than anticipated.Barkin is not a voter this year on interest rate policy, but will become a voter next ⁠year when ​the Fed is expected to continue raising borrowing costs. ​Investor views of the extent of hiking have shifted however, alongside a recent drop in equity markets that could influence ​future consumer spending and ease cost pressures.Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Andrea Ricci

(Kitco News) – The Federal Reserve will only need to deliver one more rate hike this cycle before a combination of falling oil prices, easing tariff impacts and slowing growth will lower inflationary pressures, according to Natixis.Economists Christopher Hodge and Selin Aker wrote in the wake of the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday that one of the dissenters in the FOMC’s 10-2 vote to hold was Lisa Cook, who registered her first dissent since taking office in 2022.“Surprisingly two erstwhile hawks, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who both dissented when the Fed held rates steady in July, did not again dissent in favor of a hike,” they said. “The pause in this meeting follows through on the implicit suggestion from NY Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson that consecutive hikes are not urgent at this time. Still, inflation remains a problem, growth remains solid, and the unemployment rate is stable – and a hike in December is now likely a foregone conclusion, absent a truly significant shift in the data.”Parsing the official statement, the economists noted that the Fed “upgraded its assessment of growth from solid to strong,” while adding that “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation.”“This suggests that today’s pause will give the FOMC time to see if the recent higher-than-expected inflation print in September was a one-time increase or the start of a new upward trend,” they said.Turning to Warsh’s press conference, Hodge and Aker said the Fed Chair “touted stronger trend growth, record capex, and low unemployment,” while reaffirming their “responsibility to get inflation down,” adding that while financial conditions had tightened somewhat, they remained loose on balance.“The highlight of his prepared remarks was the planned changes to the FOMC meeting schedule,” they said. “The FOMC will continue to hold eight meetings per year, and Chair Warsh wants to keep it that way. However, in 2027, one of the eight meetings will focus exclusively on monetary policy strategy, with no vote or statement. Similarly, in 2028, two meetings will be dedicated to strategy, while six will focus on setting policy.”During the Q&A, Warsh failed to provide a definitive answer on why the Fed didn’t raise rates at this meeting. “He was also skeptical of the view that AI spending is insensitive to interest rates,” they said. “He noted that market participants were becoming more selective about AI-related credit, with some spreads widening, but added that capex strength had extended beyond AI over the past few quarters.”Looking ahead, Natixis expects the Fed to remain focused on inflation in the near term, but the economists see slower growth in an environment of lower energy prices and waning tariff effects to reduce price pressures, and they see one additional rate hike in December before the current cycle ends. “[B]ut that call is contingent on encouraging inflation data in the coming months and additional concerns about the growth outlook.”See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies. 

Gold fell to a one-year low on Friday and silver slid below US$50 an ounce for the first time since November 2025 as higher energy prices and persistent inflation concerns strengthened expectations that US interest rates will stay high.

Fed Rate Forecast: BofA Moves Hikes to December and March as Banks Split