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Despite a more relaxed policy that allows Chinese families to have three children, it seems likely that China’s birth rate will remain lower than expected. Consequently, we expect China’s infant milk formula market to register a negative volume growth rate in the coming years, as the country approaches a critical demographic inflection point. But this is not the end of the world. China will remain one of the largest infant milk formula markets globally, and we expect the demographic headwinds are likely to drive value growth over volume growth.
