Mondo 2000 - Chaos & Complexity Pdf Library. .:ESRA On-Line. Psychonautics. LSD.Mutant Yippies, LSD, and Cyberpunks: The Story of the Space Age Newspaper 'High...
In what's become a bit of a tradition here at the Lounge, we're delighted to welcome back Dave Snowden for our December meetup.
Dave will discuss how we need to deliberately change the conversation from talking about desirable behaviors to changing the environment so that desirable behaviors emerge. Other topics include discussing Emergence, updates on Estuarine Mapping, and the various schools of Complexity, and whatever else is on Dave's mind. It's always a pleasure to spend time with Dave and hear about where he thinks this thing we call complexity is going.
*Dave Snowden* Dave is the founder and Chief Scientific Officer of The Cynefin Company (formerly known as Cognitive Edge) and the founder and Director of the Centre for Applied Complexity at the University of Wales. His work has been focused on looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He has pioneered a science-based approach to complex organizational issues - drawing on anthropology, neuroscience, and complex adaptive systems theory.
*Timestamps* 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:54 *Opening Remarks* 00:03:28 Emergence 00:14:44 Estuarine Mapping 00:19:43 Individuals (Mental Models, Mindsets), Interactions, Environment (substrates) 00:28:40 Changing the Context, Energy Gradients 00:31:05 Schools of Complexity (Computational, Psychodynamic, Anthro) 00:35:49 *Group Discussion* 00:37:10 Novelty Processing 00:42:34 Working with Leaders (Crews) / C-level 00:49:14 Mindsets, revisited 00:53:38 Emergence, revisited 00:56:06 Mental Models, revisited 01:04:40 Pitfalls of Binary Thinking 01:07:55 From Workshops towards Distributed Decision-making 01:12:33 Neuro-diversity & Cognitive Styles 01:22:24 Identities & Roles 01:26:16 Granularity and Abstraction 01:28:40 AI (mandatory AI discussion) 01:32:43 Stability / Instability 01:38:12 Strategic Management / Leadership 01:44:58 Language revisited 01:46:32 Workshops (and Facilitation), revisited 01:52:40 Summary and big shoutout to our 2024 Speakers & Members!!!
We are delighted to welcome Dave Snowden to the Complexity Lounge. Dave joins us to discuss his latest thoughts on the applications of constructor theory in complex systems, as well as the latest iterations of the Cynefin framework and whatever else is on his mind. Please join us as Dave helps us bring the first year of our virtual meetup to a close.
*Dave Snowden* Dave is the founder and Chief Scientific Officer of The Cynefin Company (formerly known as Cognitive Edge) and the founder and Director of the Centre for Applied Complexity at the University of Wales. His work has been focused on looking at complex issues relating to strategy, and organizational decision making. He has pioneered a science-based approach to complex organizational issues - drawing on anthropology, neuroscience, and complex adaptive systems theory.
The Cynefin Framework, created by Dave Snowden and Mary Boone in 1999, categorizes problems into five domains: Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Disorder. This helps decision-makers determine the nature of issues and choose appropriate responses. Simple issues need straightforward solutions, Complicated problems require expert analysis, Complex situations use a probe-sense-respond strategy, Chaotic conditions need immediate action, and Disorder indicates confusion about which domain applies. This framework assists in avoiding oversimplification of complex issues or overcomplication of simple ones. Effective use involves continual reassessment, open dialogue, and agile response strategies.
Understanding the Simple, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic Quadrants
Simple, represented by a common car, where everything is easily understood; Complicated, like a Formula One car, which requires expert knowledge and the following of rules; Complex, akin to a test pilot flying a new airplane, which involves unknowns and requires exploration; and Chaotic, similar to an aircraft in a tailspin, where quick and random actions are necessary to regain control.
The Cynefin Framework sets out different lenses through which circumstances can be made sense of, from 'clear' through to 'chaos'! As we have covered on previous episodes of the show (CR020 & CR003), it is very useful for helping frame and understand the shift to “digital”.
This week, Dave, Sjoukje, and Rob talk to Rob England and Cherry Vu, who are Teal Unicorn and explore new ways of management, about the relevance of the Cynefin Framework in their work with organisations, the builds Rob and Cherry have made on it (with Dave Snowden!), and what results they have seen. We also talk about ways to drive additional value from the Cloud.
TLDR: 01:00 Anti-Compentative UK probe into Cloud Service Providers 04:40 Cloud conversation with Rob England and Cherry Vu 44:13 Three actions to unlock greater Cloud Value 51:50 Celebrating Robs 21st birthday and a Corporate Rebels write up!
Mastering Project Uncertainty – A Systems Thinking Approach by Paul Cuypers offers a theoretical framework and practical models, tools, techniques, and guidelines to systematically minimize uncertainty, thereby increasing the chances of project success.
Ironically, decision makers often struggle to decide if they have chosen the right course of action for their businesses, or whether a decision that’s already...
The popular notion that Cynefin can be applied in the software development domain to discuss the problems involved in writing software for money needs to include the profession of Systems Engineering.
The Cynefin Framework provides a structured way to understand and navigate the complexity of the world by categorizing situations into five domains: Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Disorder. Each domain suggests distinct decision-making approaches: • Simple (Obvious): Clear cause-and-effect relationships exist, and solutions rely on established best practices or standard procedures. Examples include routine tasks like changing a flat tire or following a recipe. The focus here is on adhering to straightforward rules. • Complicated: Cause-and-effect relationships are clear but require analysis or expertise to identify. These situations, such as diagnosing a mechanical issue or planning a surgical procedure, often benefit from expert input. The emphasis is on applying appropriate analysis and technical knowledge. • Complex: Multiple interconnected factors make cause and effect uncertain or emergent. Examples include developing a new vaccine or managing innovation in a dynamic market. Experimentation, iteration, and learning are critical to finding effective solutions. • Chaotic: High unpredictability and rapidly changing conditions dominate, as seen in natural disaster responses or market crashes. The priority is immediate action to stabilize the situation and impose order before addressing longer-term solutions. • Disorder: This domain represents uncertainty or confusion, where it’s unclear which of the other domains applies. Identifying the true nature of the situation is the first step toward resolution.
Sources: - Snowden, D. J., & Stanbridge, P. (2020). Cynefin: Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World. [Detailed insights into the framework.] - Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Leadership challenges in today's world are increasing in intensity, complexity and frequency. Leaders need to upgrade their thinking skills with tools that enable them to wrestle with such adversities. In this webinar we explain what systems are and how systems thinking enable leaders to make a better sense of the world. We introduce Cynefin Framework as a world-class framework of contextualization and Causal Loop Diagrams who help us understand dynamics of interactions in systems.
The Cynefin Framework and Estuarine Mapping (Estuarine Framework); Frequently mentioned, but what are they and how are they related?Most people who will come across this blog will probably be familiar to some extent with the Cynefin Framework, and increasingly more people are becoming familiar with...
Douglas Squirrel, author of Agile Conversations, joins Bill Raymond on the Agile in Action podcast. Douglas discusses the misconceptions around agility in tech teams and the importance of experimentation in complex environments.
Bill and Douglas discuss the benefits of rapid experimentation, handling complexity and chaos, and avoiding common pitfalls in software development.
In this podcast, you will learn the following:
✅ The Cynefin framework for managing complexity
✅ The importance of experimentation in software teams
00:00 Introducing Douglas Squirrel 00:27 Defining Agility in Software Teams 01:35 Introduction to the Cynefin Framework 03:15 Exploring the Simple and Complicated Quadrants 04:51 Understanding the Complex and Chaotic Quadrants 11:19 Dealing with Burnout in Complex Environments 13:37 Delivering Value Through Experimentation 17:16 The Value of Negative Results 17:50 Challenging the Concept of Best Practices 18:26 Explaining Failures to Clients 18:53 Embracing Complexity in Innovation 21:07 Signs You're Not in the Complex Domain 23:13 The Danger of Not Testing Innovations 25:04 Encouraging Frequent Customer Feedback 26:39 Designing Effective Experiments 30:13 Real-World Examples of Experimentation 33:02 Conclusion and Contact Information
Digitalisation in an inherently complex activity, with unknowns being very high and experimentation required on an ongoing basis - there is no 'once and done'. The changes in leadership framing, decision making and ways of working required are hugely under estimated in discussions and planning of 'transformation' and failure to engage with that could risk your success.
Dave, Sjoukje & Rob talk with Dave Snowden, Director and Founder of the Cynefin Centre about his work on making sense of complexity, they discuss Dave's seminal work, the Cynefin Framework, how he has subsequently built on that thinking and how you apply that it in the digitalisation process of your organisation. His insights are not to be missed.
Finally, in this weeks Trend, we set out some perceived wisdom of what is required in digital leadership and see what stacks up.
TLDR: 00:43 Intros 01:21 Cloud conversation with Dave Snowden 24:53 Six Tips For CEOs for Leading Digital Transformations 40:31 Wainwright walks!
THE CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK https://thecynefin.co/about-us/about-cynefin-framework/ Cynefin, pronounced kuh-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the multiple, intertwined factors in our environment and our experience that influence us (how we think, interpret and act) in ways we can never fully...
The Lean Strategy System A new client company approached me a couple of months ago to support with its growth strategy. Having gone through years of turnarounds, downsizing, and divestitures, growth was lacking.
Over the past year I have given a lot of consideration about the role of leaders in our organizations and how some of the core assumptions about leadership need to change. Surviving in broken systems and moving beyond them Many of our systems and institutions are broken. So how can we survive in these? The answer may be in adopting an ironic sense of humour, coupled with honesty and humility. Sensemaking through irony, and not falling into a state of anger, frustration, or apathy, can lead us toward envisaging new systems. When people in the roles of decision maker, expert, & resource controller — traditional bottlenecks for knowledge flow in organizations — adopt these perspectives then “distributed, iterative sense-making, decision-making, and action-taking” can be enabled. We have seen a “profound failure of ethical action” in dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. As a society, we learned nothing from the influenza pandemic of 1918. We have learned little over the past three years. During this pandemic, many leading health and infectious disease experts have worked hard to promote misinformation leading to disinformation, in order to protect their institutions and disciplines, and not to protect people. This ethical crisis should be a wake-up call to build better educational, cultural, economic, and political structures. One approach could be strategic doing through agile sensemaking. As Cormac Russell noted, “Bureaucracies following an iron rule: those who wish to elevate, support, & practically resource community alternatives will always be junior/subordinate to those who want to feature their professional & institutional capacities above citizens and the communities they serve.” In broken institutions, loyalty is often strongest to the structure in place and this powerful antibody staves off any progressive ideas from outside. Progressive change in these environments has to be in the form of trojan mice developed in an ‘agile’ fashion, using Strategic Doing skills such as creating a short-term action plan in which everyone takes a small step and meeting every 30 days to review progress, adjust, and plan for the next 30 days. But to begin, those ‘ironic-sensemakers’ have to first build and protect safe spaces. The leadership lens It is time to dare to un-lead as Céline Schillinger advocates in her book of that title. “A movement toward more liberty, equality, and fraternity at work starts, as we have seen, with an individual distancing themselves from a dominant model — one inherited from the past, which has become restrictive and counterproductive — with others eventually electing to do the same.” As Father John Culkin wrote in 1967, “We become what we behold. We shape our tools and then our tools shape us.” Our organizational structures are just tools. They can be re-shaped. Leadership by example is what we need, and what all citizens should demand. As Bill Comeau implored for better public health practices, “We each have few times in our lifetime to truly lead by example. This is a unique opportunity for you to do something you will look back on and think ‘I did the right thing despite the pressures around me and maybe I helped a nurse from burning out or someone getting very sick’.” Complexity & Chaos There is a critical need to lead in complexity today. Making our networks smarter is one aspect of leadership in our digitally connected world and so is convening the best parts of our networks in order to address complex issues and make decisions. In crises, sometimes perfection is the enemy of the good, so having a diverse, knowledgeable, and experienced group of advisors becomes critical. Leadership today should be a temporary privilege and a permanent responsibility. Dmytro Yarmak shared his experience of leadership in chaos as he shifted from being an Agile IT coach to an officer in the Ukrainian Army. He explained how the Cynefin framework helped him understand the chaos of battle and complexity of war. This is a lesson for anyone in a leadership position today. This is agile sensemaking in action. “Knowing the Cynefin framework also helped me in another way. If you are in the Chaos domain there are no best practices as your context changes. So if something worked before there is simply no guarantee that it will work again or in your dynamically changing environment. So you should be really careful when someone insists on best practices. This helped me to calmly ignore suggestions that I felt would not work. And instead of an imaginary ‘silver bullet’, act and create new practices.” —Dmytro Yarmak Flipping leadership on its head Telling people what to do does not create value. Networks of trust are what create value at all levels for human society. If at any point a manager/executive/politician wonders why people are aimless, disengaged, or ineffective, then they should reflect upon self-determination theory which states that there are three universal human drivers — autonomy, competence, and relatedness. The historical role of management has been to reduce transaction costs in getting work done. A networked organization based on the compass of self-determination theory needs minimal management. It has the capability of sharing power between people and working together as the situation requires. It’s time to get rid of the great man theory of leadership and stop replacing CEOs and presidents while expecting different results — it’s the system, stupid. The pervasive authoritarian father needs to exit stage left, and quickly. Our optimal future is networked and feminine, despite the many authoritarians that still abound in organizations and institutions. One problem is how we perceive our optimum future. Often, the traditional political Right wants to go back to the Pre-modern (Institutional) Era — based on dogmatism, faith, & truth — while the traditional political Left wants to stay in the Modern (Market) Era — based on doubting, science, & facts. However, the best way ahead is toward a Meta-modern (Network) Era — based on seeking, knowledge, & combining. Leadership models from previous and current societal forms are insufficient for a meta-modern world, which offers a way out of our post-modern mess. Most of our leadership models and practices belong to yesterday. How can we listen to tomorrow if we have yet to clarify what belongs to yesterday? We don’t just need new maps that order the world in the same old ways. New vision is required. New ontologies reshape the map, and reshape us. So we should listen to the future. Whose voices do we hear? [Ursula] Le Guin writes, “which is farther from us, farther out of reach, more silent — the dead, or the unborn?” To listen, we must first be present. —Meta, Modern 2020-05-20 Related Postsimmunize for complexityEverything Connects
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