Complex Insight - Understanding our world
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Complex Insight  - Understanding our world
A few things the Symbol Research team are reading.  Complex Insight is curated by Phillip Trotter (www.linkedin.com/in/phillip-trotter) from Symbol Research
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Computational Social Scientist Beware: Simpson's Paradox in Behavioral Data

Observational data about human behavior is often heterogeneous, i.e., generated by subgroups within the population under study that vary in size and behavior. Heterogeneity predisposes analysis to Simpson's paradox, whereby the trends observed in data that has been aggregated over the entire population may be substantially different from those of the underlying subgroups. I illustrate Simpson's paradox with several examples coming from studies of online behavior and show that aggregate response leads to wrong conclusions about the underlying individual behavior. I then present a simple method to test whether Simpson's paradox is affecting results of analysis. The presence of Simpson's paradox in social data suggests that important behavioral differences exist within the population, and failure to take these differences into account can distort the studies' findings.

 

Computational Social Scientist Beware: Simpson's Paradox in Behavioral Data
Kristina Lerman


Via Complexity Digest
Phillip Trotter's insight:
When building models of human systems understanding Simpson's paradox is essential for creating behaviorally accurate representations
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Adaptive Computation: The Multidisciplinary Legacy of John H. Holland

Adaptive Computation: The Multidisciplinary Legacy of John H. Holland | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
John H. Holland's general theories of adaptive processes apply across biological, cognitive, social, and computational systems.
Phillip Trotter's insight:
I first came across John Holland's work in a an article while I was at High School some 30 years ago. A few years later he kindly answered my questions in an out of the blue phone call and then over the years in conversations at conferences and in emails.  I have always been in awe of the breadth of his vision and interests, intrigued by his ideas and appreciated the fact he would take time to encourage research and passionate discussion. Sadly with his passing last year - we lost a truly original insight. Stephanie Forrest and Melanie Mitchells article for the ACM captures the breadth of his interests, his wonderful legacy of ideas and perhaps more importantly  the example he set in his humanity and generosity. Well worth reading.
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Mathematical Models Key to Designing Better Cancer Treatment Strategies

Mathematical Models Key to Designing Better Cancer Treatment Strategies | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Researchers are developing ways to help predict how different cancers are likely to progress when actual tumor growth measurements are hard to come by. More than one in three people in the U.S. will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives. Accurate predictions of tumor growth are key to determining the right dose of radiation and chemotherapy, how often patients should undergo screening, and whether treatment is effective.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

Models of cancer that are benchmarked against actual occurances and correctly predict behaviour are critically important for devising fruture treatments. Good intro to the subject.

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Gigantic Ocean Vortices Seen From Space Could Change Climate Models | Science | WIRED

Gigantic Ocean Vortices Seen From Space Could Change Climate Models | Science | WIRED | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Enormous vortices of water, measuring 60 miles across, spin their way across the sea at a deliberate pace---3 miles per day.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

The role of the oceans is often misrepresented in climate discussions. The discovery of large scale migrating eddies and their potential impact on transportation of nutriends, dissolved carbon dioxide and heat may change our understanding of ocean health and weather. Awesome science article on Wired Science explaining how the phenomenon was discovered and some of the questions it raises - worth reading.

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Microsoft's virtual ecosystem aims to simulate the entire world - NBC News.com

Microsoft's virtual ecosystem aims to simulate the entire world - NBC News.com | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Microsoft Research and UN scientists are embarking on a highly ambitious project: A computational model of an entire ecosystem, from the soil to the creatures that live on it and interact with it...

Phillip Trotter's insight:

This is a research topic very close to home for the team at complex insight since we work on related developments. Microsoft Research are aiming to accurately simulate an entire ecosystem.  Drew Purves at Microsoft Research in Cambridge thinks the time has come for what the company describes as a General Ecosystem Model (also known as GEM) — capable of simulating just about any ecosystem in the world. Purves wrote an article for the journal Nature announcing the team's intentions, and calling for others to help out — because it's not a small project. Microsoft have developed a prototype called the Madingley Model -see http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/gef/madingley.aspx ; and work is now underway with the Untied Nations Environment Programe to refine the developments.

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Study: Some Americans Will Pay Just $34 Per Year Under Obamacare

Study: Some Americans Will Pay Just $34 Per Year Under Obamacare | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Obamacare will dramatically reduce the cost of health care for some of the poorest Americans, a new study finds.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

Its not often that we get to model, assess and evaluate the outcome of major insurance system changes. With the advent of affordable care act - the United States is providing such an opportunity. Rand Corporaton released figures based on their cost modeling of the Affordable Care Act that indicate out-of-pocket health care costs will drop from $1,463 to just $34 per year in 2016 for the approximately11.5 million amercans who get insurance via the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid. President Obama's health care reform law will also reduce the likelihood that this group will face catastrophic medical costs -- defined as 10 percent of income -- by 40 percent, according to the study. As the law comes into effect it will be interesting to assess the efficacy of these studies and contrast them with data provided by those who oppose the affordable care act and hopefully in doing so - step closer to better healthcare and economic policy informed by data.

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Why teach modeling & simulation in schools?

Advancements in science and technology take place on a global scale without much consideration of the exact implications that they may essentially have on the species or our planet. Over the last few decades, things are moving very fast and not always in a good way. The climate of the planet is changing drastically. Ice caps are melting faster than ever. Known animal species around the world are declining at rates faster than ever previously known in recorded history. We humans, might have intelligent individuals amidst us. However, collectively, to any external observer, we would perhaps seem to act more like mindless scavengers stripping the planet of its resources faster than she can ever replenish them. And this all seems to be intrinsically linked with our seemingly insatiable “collective” urge to satisfy immediate needs. So, while the technological revolution has greatly benefited humankind, our continual reliance on technology also has considerable collateral effects on the planet.

 

Why teach modeling & simulation in schools?
Muaz A. Niazi and Anatoly Temkin
Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling20175:7
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40294-017-0046-y


Via Complexity Digest
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Models and people: An alternative view of the emergent properties of computational models

Computer models can help humans gain insight into the functioning of complex systems. Used for training, they can also help gain insight into the cognitive processes humans use to understand these systems. By influencing humans understanding (and consequent actions) computer models can thus generate an impact on both these actors and the very systems they are designed to simulate. When these systems also include humans, a number of self-referential relations thus emerge which can lead to very complex dynamics. This is particularly true when we explicitly acknowledge and model the existence of multiple conflicting representations of reality among different individuals. Given the increasing availability of computational devices, the use of computer models to support individual and shared decision making could potentially have implications far wider than the ones often discussed within the Information and Communication Technologies community in terms of computational power and network communication. We discuss some theoretical implications and describe some initial numerical simulations.

 

Models and people: An alternative view of the emergent properties of computational models
Fabio Boschetti

Complexity

Volume 21, Issue 6
July/August 2016
Pages 202–213

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21680


Via Complexity Digest
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A World Cup Visitor: Polio from Africa in Brazil | Science Blogs | WIRED

A World Cup Visitor: Polio from Africa in Brazil | Science Blogs | WIRED | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
The World Health Organization announced on Monday that a polio sample was collected in March at Viracopos International Airport in Campinas, which is about 60 miles outside Sao Paulo, and is where many of the World Cup teams have been landing. The agency said no cases of polio have been identified and there is no evidence the disease has been transmitted.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

Another awesome article by Maryn Mckenna, highlighting the interconnectedness of our health ecossystem as polio virus from Afric is found in a Brazilian sewer. The possible vector - visitors for the world cup. Article very worth reading.

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Communicating Social Simulation Models to Sceptical Minds

Communicating Social Simulation Models to Sceptical Minds | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Annie Waldherr and Nanda Wijermans (2013)

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 16 (4) 13
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/16/4/13.html

Published: 31-Oct-2013

 

When talking to fellow modellers about the feedback we get on our simulation models the conversation quickly shifts to anecdotes of rejective scepticism. Many of us experience that they get only few remarks, and especially only little helpful constructive feedback on their simulation models. In this forum paper, we give an overview and reflections on the most common criticisms experienced by ABM modellers. Our goal is to start a discussion on how to respond to criticism, and particularly rejective scepticism, in a way that makes it help to improve our models and consequently also increase acceptance and impact of our work. We proceed by identifying common criticism on agent-based modelling and social simulation methods and show where it shifts to rejection. In the second part, we reflect on the reasons for rejecting the agent-based approach, which we mainly locate in a lack of understanding on the one hand, and academic territorialism on the other hand. Finally, we also give our personal advice to socsim modellers of how to deal with both forms of rejective criticism.


Via NESS
Lorien Pratt's curator insight, December 12, 2013 10:02 PM

What an interesting topic!  I agree wholeheartedly with the premise underlying this paper, which is that it's important to focus explicitly on the factors that lead to model acceptance and that overcome skepticism and rejection.

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Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years

Ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Overfishing and pollution are part of the problem, scientists say, warning that mass extinction of species may be inevitable
Phillip Trotter's insight:

Increasing acidification has been predicted by climate modellers and oceanographers for many many years. Hopefully we have not also passed the tipping point that they also described...

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National disability insurance scheme has priced some services 'much too low'

National disability insurance scheme has priced some services 'much too low' | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Chief executive says service providers will not be financially sustainable if the budgeted rates are not increased Parts of the national disability insurance scheme have been priced too low and will have to be significantly increased when the...
Phillip Trotter's insight:

The problem with models - Australian government discover their cost models for national disability insurance don't add up and the figures applied in the budget won't be sufficient to pay for actuql services.. 

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