Economists now believe this year’s recession will be relatively mild, but marketers still have important work to do to ensure their brands come out stronger on the other side.

The two papers "When Brands Go Dark" (2021) by Nicole Hartnett et al. and "When Brands Go Dark: A Replication and Extension" (2023) by Peilin Phua, PhD et al.

AbstractThe value of mass media advertising can be demonstrated by quantifying what happens when it is removed. The current study does this, extending the work of Hartnett, Gelzinis, Beal, et al. (2021) by documenting changes in market share for 365 U.S.

Take a look at our compendium of robust, empirical evidence to help you justify your advertising investment.

Ian Whittaker is a City analyst, and the current City A.M. Analyst of the Year. Shaky seems to be the best word for the start of results season on Wall

Marketing during a crisis: a collection of expert advice

"When the times are good, you should advertise. When the times are bad, you must advertise “ Not any crisis or its announcement does leave anyone indifferent, and we, marketers,…

The Covid-19 recession may have some unusual characteristics, but the arguments in favour of continued brand investment remain as powerful as ever.

How to Successfully Navigate Your Brand Through an Economic Downturn | COVID-19 Insights

Amongst the many articles and analyses are pieces warning advertisers not to “go dark”. Based on data from previous recessions, these argue that firms should maintain or even increase adspend in order to gain market share, and so emerge stronger when all this is over.

There is definitely some truth in this. Indeed, I have made the same argument myself in the past. But I can’t help feeling that we need a more nuanced and thoughtful approach just now. For a start, advice from Adland about “not going dark” is likely to sound self-serving and hollow to a CEO who faces imminent bankruptcy. But more fundamentally, I think there are three reasons why lessons from past recessions may not apply just now.

Independent analysis of marketing spend in difficult economic times shows brands that maintain or increase advertising investment, relative to competitors, were the ones to gain market share during and following the downturn. 

Under the banner of The Premium Content Alliance, Australia’s premium content creators have joined forces to share this message with a campaign that spans the digital, print, TV and Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) inventory of Foxtel Group, Foxtel Media, Network 10, News Corp Australia, Nine and Seven West Media.

Brands seeking to understand consumers in the recession that is expected to follow the spread of COVID-19 will need to update their research playbooks, the chief executive of Nielsen has argued.

Bolia is a Danish-owned furniture chain, which was established in the year 2000. It started out as a pure online store, but later came its own stores and retailers. Today, Bolia's designer furniture can be purchased in more than 50 countries. 

Bolia, along with its competitors, was hit very hard by the financial crisis back in 2008-09. Both sales and bottom line collapsed. Competitors' response to the situation was higher discounts and lower retail prices. Bolia believed in the value of building a strong brand position as the way to maintain a price premium and thus higher profits and bottom line. They chose to stick to the concept of New Scandinavian Design. And developing it further meant that Bolia and their designer furniture became a way of expressing their own identity. Bolia was popularly positioned as a fashion brand while competitors continued with their now-can-you-get-even-higher-discounts strategy.

On the media side, magazines and newspapers were phased out in the years 2010 to 2016. Communicating in moving images once again proved to be the best way to tell the story that New Scandinavian Design is a way of expressing one's own identity and personality. The media plan ended with TV as the primary media combined with digital media platforms such as display, search and social media. Bolia has experienced progress on all relevant brand parameters in the years 2010 to 2016, and today the brand is associated with both design and quality. And not least quality, which is worth paying more for. 

Bolia has seen a price increase after inflation of more than 26 percent in the period from 2010 to 2016. The number of visitors to Bolia.com has more than doubled during the period. The same has happened for Bolia's physical stores. 

The Godfather of effectiveness, Peter Field, says the only sensible course for any advertiser who wants to maintain a presence through CV-19 is putting money into long-term brand building because …

Explores advertising in a recession through the evidence available in the WARC archives and beyond. Typically, recessions cause businesses to rein in advertising spend in the short term, a mistake, that can cause long-term damage to a brand.

Business analytics firm, Marketscience, have conducted a comprehensive economic analysis of the last five major recessions

Marketing decisions can be difficult in these times. Thankfully, there is a treasure trove of marketing effectiveness best practices from prior economic cycles that can help advertisers stay relevant and protect future sales.

Martin Sorrell told me the idea of marketers spending their way through this specific crisis as “complete nonsense,” given the existential threats so many companies currently face. “

In all the conversations I have had, [with business leaders], there is no long term now: it’s a total focus on the short term,” he said. “All bets are off.”

Here is the evidence.
For example: 1981-82: McGraw-Hill Research showed firms that maintained or increased ad expenditures averaged significantly higher sales growth during the recession and for the following three years. Out of the 600 business-to-business companies analyzed, the companies that cut advertising in the recession of 1981/82 increased sales by only 19% between 1980 and 1985, less than companies that did continue to advertise. Companies that continued to advertise in 1981/82 enjoyed a 275% sales increase.