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Community member post by Jan Kwakkel How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems are…

None of us are ever right. Certainty is an illusion, and there is no shame in being wrong because, by nature, our entire perception of the world is wrong.
Over time, we progress and thrive in our surroundings by being less wrong. We feel around, we test, and we question ourselves until something works.
Uncertainty isn’t a condition to be avoided, but a tool for better decisions.

When we don't have enough information, our brains seek "cognitive closure." Much of the time, it doesn't end well.

Uncertainty is scary. The unknown is scary. Leaders will always face uncertainty and the future will always be unknown. A company team I worked with recently has some pretty big anticipated hurdles coming up in about a year. The height of the hurdles is not clear, nor if there will be ground to land on…

The Uncertainty Capability: The Secret to Preparing for the Next Disruption

Answering this question is important on both a personal and organizational level — and regardless of whether you are a technology company or an enterprise. The reason is that the critical capability is not the identification of the next disruptive force, but rather the ability to rapidly adapt to whatever disruption may come.

The reason that many industry leaders missed the significance of the Internet is that we are all subject to something called the “curse of knowledge.” Coined by a Stanford graduate student, it simply means that once we know something to be true, it becomes very difficult to both imagine that anybody else doesn’t know this truth and to break free of the box that the knowledge creates around us.

The current incarnations of Internet-fueled technologies have become our new reality. We understand how it works, we have made plans for the future based on that understanding and are therefore naturally hesitant to accept anything that may challenge that preconception. It is the curse of knowledge in action.