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Scoop.it!
IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse 
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Scoop.it!
After the Cold War ended, globalization took hold as the world became a network of interconnected economies. But events of recent years have caused fractures along geopolitical lines, prompting both leaders and companies to reevaluate who they do business with, and how. Amid the turmoil, a group of countries are capitalizing on this new reality, and thriving.
Graham Watson's insight:
This Bloomberg clip, on the very day that the Berlin Wall came down 34 years ago - is a great look both at globalization and the recent collapse of globalization in the wake of COVID and successive wars in Ukraine and now Gaza.
So what next? It seems unlikely that we're going to go back to hyperglobalization and lengthy supply chains? So where are we headed? A collapse of globalization is forecast to wipe off 7% of global GDP, as much as the French and German companies combined.
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Trade deals have brought cheaper goods. They’ve also destroyed millions of US jobs and caused US wages to stagnate
Graham Watson's insight:
Normally, economists are in favour of free trade arguing that it brings with it more benefits than costs. That's not the view of Robert Reich who seems to argue that this ignores the distributional effects of trade which have seen companies and their shareholders benefit and US workers lose out - with fewer jobs and lower wages. Indeed, he argues that the former should have compensated that latter.
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Industrial policy such as a green growth plan is no longer a dirty word as nations realise shorter supply chains and a strategic state role are necessary
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott's piece for tomorrow's Guardian - yes, tomorrow's economic news today folks! - suggests that we've entered a different era as far as trade is concerned.
Although rumours of the death of globalisation are "greatly exaggerated", it seems to be the case that economies have moved away from seeing it as a panacea, and retrenching in the sense that nations are looking for shorter supply chains and the government intervening strategically in trade. Again, he refers to green growth. It's almost if the Guardian is taking up the cudgels in defence of the Green Investment Plan in a week where it's seemingly going to come under greater scrutiny.
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Is globalization offering promise for a better future or fuelling geopolitical tension? Robin Niblett has observed its ebbs and flows in the fifteen years of his tenure as Chatham House director.
Graham Watson's insight:
Robin Niblett looks at how globalization has altered in the past 15 years, with the global financial crisis and its aftermath reflecting the geopolitical realities of international trade.
In general, there's an increased recognition that although there may well have been global growth, it was unevenly distributed, and these distributional effects have reshaped trade. It's an excellent clip.
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Larry Elliott, always keen to publish Monday's article, highlights the changing global order, with current crises seemingly spelling the end of the US-led world order, and the end of the globalization we became familiar with in the first decade of the 21st century.