International Economics: IB Economics
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International Economics: IB Economics
Economy
A collection of articles relating to the 'international' elements of Economics and relating to IB, Pre-U and A-Level Economics.
Curated by Graham Watson
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World economy on brink of ‘cold war two’, IMF official warns | Economics | The Guardian

World economy on brink of ‘cold war two’, IMF official warns | Economics | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - December 11, 2023 4:32 PM
Gita Gopinath says global economy’s fragmentation into power blocs risks wipeout of trillions of dollars in GDP
Graham Watson's insight:

The Deputy Director of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has suggested that a move away from globalisation and an economic Cold War based on US and Chinese power blocs has the potential to wipe trillions of dollars off global GDP as the world seemingly enters new trading relationships. 

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The Guardian view on US-China chip wars: no winners in zero-sum battles | Editorial | The Guardian

The Guardian view on US-China chip wars: no winners in zero-sum battles | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - May 1, 2023 4:01 AM
Editorial: UK policy is to ensure its industry doesn’t suffer collateral damage in the contest for tech supremacy
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian's take on the ongoing chip war and the implications of this for the global economy and the UK, whose $1bn support for the sector looks to be somewhat overshadowed by the support packages offered by almost everyone else. 

 

The premise of the article is straight forward. There are no winners in zero-sum games; they have a point. And in trade terms it's unlikely that we'll ever return to the hyperglobalisation of the early 21st century in the near future. 

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From near-shoring to friend-shoring: the changing face of globalisation | Mohamed El-Erian | The Guardian

From near-shoring to friend-shoring: the changing face of globalisation | Mohamed El-Erian | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 9, 2023 4:06 PM
A new operating model for the global economy is upon us – its success will depend on how policymakers adapt
Graham Watson's insight:

Mohamed El-Erian writes a Project Syndicate column looking at the changing nature of trade in the post-Covid world. He argues that we're moving away from hyperglobalisation, not so much towards reshoring, but shortening supply chains by relocating business operations in cheap, but close, locations instead. He suggests that this might be called 'near shoring' and that is represents a form of fragmented globalisation. 

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The pendulum swung against globalisation in 2022 – and that’s no bad thing | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

The pendulum swung against globalisation in 2022 – and that’s no bad thing | Larry Elliott | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - December 27, 2022 6:32 AM
Climate crisis, Ukraine invasion and China-US tensions are challenging assumption free markets are best
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott reflects on the prevailing tendency which has seen the end of hyperglobalisation, and nations becoming more cautious as regards trade. It has seen increased international tensions, and moves towards shortening global supply chains and increasingly interventionist industrial policy, looking at protecting domestic industry. 

 

He argues that there are costs - higher prices, for one - but that, on balance, there are more positives than negatives, lower carbon emissions being prominent. 

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Global supply chain crisis fuels push to local manufacturing as China’s appeal dims | Supply chain crisis | The Guardian

Global supply chain crisis fuels push to local manufacturing as China’s appeal dims | Supply chain crisis | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - June 9, 2022 9:03 AM
Analysis: US to examine with fresh urgency easing reliance on China as pandemic disruptions expose global economic vulnerabilities
Graham Watson's insight:

This is a really important article, looking at how the pandemic has affected trade patterns, with companies looking to shorten their supply chains and reshore certain types of production. 

 

It rather implies that the days of hyperglobalisation are over, as companies look to diversify their supply chains. 

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The food crisis is what happens when global chains collapse. We might need to get used to it | Will Hutton | The Guardian

The food crisis is what happens when global chains collapse. We might need to get used to it | Will Hutton | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - May 22, 2022 10:36 AM
War in Ukraine is the latest threat to the whole intellectual edifice of globalisation
Graham Watson's insight:

Will Hutton argues that the Ukraine conflict has laid bare the dangers inherent in globalisation, and that this might be something that we need to bear in mind going forward. 

 

Global supply chains have collapsed - in food production and in manufacturing - and it's clearly going to take time to overcome. 

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The world’s engines are spluttering: IMF points to deeper problems beyond 2022 | Mohamed El-Erian | The Guardian

The world’s engines are spluttering: IMF points to deeper problems beyond 2022 | Mohamed El-Erian | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - April 23, 2022 11:28 AM
Organisation suggests there is a broader crisis as it revises down its projections for economic growth
Graham Watson's insight:

Mohamed El-Erian with a typical downbeat assessment of the prospects for the global economy - arguing that the conflict in Ukraine has rather served to mask the deeper seated problems that are going to imperil future growth prospects. 

 

He argues that the changing nature of globalisation, an over-reliance upon government stimulus and a lack of investment in the sources of sustainable growth are going to continue to mean that growth is likely to be sluggish going forward. 

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The Guardian view on the sanctions siege: pain felt way beyond Russia | Editorial | The Guardian

The Guardian view on the sanctions siege: pain felt way beyond Russia | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - March 25, 2022 4:39 AM
Editorial: The war in Ukraine has exposed how the current model of globalisation is a web in which countries can trap one another
Graham Watson's insight:

Really interesting Guardian editorial this, looking at the downsides to globalisation or, as some would have it hyperglobalisation. It notes that Russia's dependence on the rest of the world for semi-conductors and the dependence of 25 sub-Saharan African economies indicates the extent to which trade makes us reliant upon others also means that we can be at the whim of others too. 

 

As the article notes "Wars reshape political - and economic - orders"

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The Guardian view on the WTO talks: poor countries can’t be kept poor | Editorial | The Guardian

The Guardian view on the WTO talks: poor countries can’t be kept poor | Editorial | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - November 30, 2021 2:48 AM
Editorial: The trade liberalisation of the 1990s did not lead to higher economic growth rates. This should raise serious concerns for backers of globalisation
Graham Watson's insight:

With the cancellation of the scheduled WTO meeting, the Guardian editorial asks whether or not everyone's gained from globalisation, and concludes that far from boosting global growth, one of the most marked effects of free trade has been to enrich the developed world through resource transfers.

 

Indeed, it is clear that trickle-down economics, either within a country or globally, simply doesn't work in the manner its proponents claim. It seems that the developed world is happy to pursue its own agenda with regard to vaccinations, green technology and debt repayments and the developing world has suffered, and will continue to do so as a consequence. As a result, the editorial suggests, it would be perfectly understandable if they turned their backs on economic liberalisation and sought more local, state-sponsored solutions, given that they seemed to have worked for India and China.

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Why are supply chain problems causing issues on shop shelves? - BBC News

From www.youtube.com - October 3, 2021 1:57 AM

The BBC's Ros Atkins explains how global supply chain problems have led to shortages of some goods in the West.

He looks at the questions this raises about the volume of things we make and consume – and about how and where we make them.

Graham Watson's insight:

This BBC clip looks at problems with the global supply chain - and identifies the factors that have contributing to them: COVID - which has prompted increased demand for good; shipping - and the fragility of the shipping network; labour shortages - notably in the UK and the US. It's an instructive clip.

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Disruption to shipping could delay Christmas orders

Disruption to shipping could delay Christmas orders | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - June 13, 2021 5:06 AM

Global transport of goods has suffered blockages, delays and bottlenecks and won't be resolved quickly.

Graham Watson's insight:

It doesn't look like there's going to be a speedy solution to the disruption in the global supply chains, with a coronavirus outbreak in Guangdong Province seeing ports there closed for three weeks. 

 

Factor in the Suez Canal crisis, and we've had a graphic illustration of the extent to which globalisation is a central facet of our economic system, and how fragile it is. Expect delays, shortages, rising shipping costs and, potentially, inflation.

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Maersk: Consumers can foot shipping's climate change bill

Maersk: Consumers can foot shipping's climate change bill | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - February 20, 2021 5:35 AM
From footwear to medical equipment, shipping can be a big part of any product's carbon emissions.
Graham Watson's insight:

I'll put this here - the article deals with so many themes - not least climate change - that I don't want to pigeonhole it. However, the thrust of the article is that shipping costs are rising, in part because of environmental concerns, and a simple statement of the fact that consumers are going to have to pay for this. In essence, we're back to the Pigouvian idea that 'the polluter should pay' - and in the case of consumer goods, it should be the final consumer that pays for the pollution that their purchases generate. 

 

However, it also highlights the current state of the global economy, prospects for the future, and the fact that a large number of its employees, nearly 200,000 are stuck at sea beyond the end of their contracts. 

 

All in all, it's interesting to the degree that I'm actually going to watch the interview - and that's something that I wouldn't often admit.  

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Will Covid-19 spell the end of globalisation?

From www.youtube.com - June 18, 2020 8:16 AM

In a truly globalised world, a disease such as coronavirus easily spread across the globe and quickly brought entire economies to a halt.

Graham Watson's insight:

This Telegraph article looks at the benefits and drawbacks of globalisation. Will coronavirus reverse so-called hyper-globalisation, as the world reacts to increased the interdependence that fostered the coronavirus pandemic? 

 

Interestingly,  Ian Goldin of Oxford University suggests that digital traffic, and attempts to develop a coronavirus vaccine are proof that we need globalisation as much as ever. 

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How Biden's Inflation Reduction Act changed the world | FT Film - YouTube

From www.youtube.com - December 11, 2023 8:55 AM

The US was for decades the exemplar of free market globalisation. That changed with Donald Trump’s 'America first' agenda. President Joe Biden’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act continues the push for re-industrialisation by using tax credits, loans and grants in a bid to create a domestic clean energy supply chain. The FT looks at three companies using IRA incentives to invest in the US and examines whether the legislation signals the end of globalisation

Graham Watson's insight:

This important FT clip looks at the way that Joe BIden's Inflation Reduction Act has changed the nature of the global trading order and goes as far as to posit that it represents a pivotal moment in starting to move away from globalization and a new form of economic nationalism.

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The world desperately needs a fairer economy – here’s how we can make that happen | Mia Mottley and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | The Guardian

The world desperately needs a fairer economy – here’s how we can make that happen | Mia Mottley and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - April 15, 2023 5:53 AM
Inflation and the climate crisis are hitting developing economies hardest. Trade is the key to helping them, say Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization
Graham Watson's insight:

Two of the biggest contemporary names in development - the Director-General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and the PM of Barbados, Mia Mottley, have contributed a piece to the Guardian that promotes greater equity in development, arguing that the living standards of the world's poorest have been compromised by the twin threats of climate change and the current higher levels of global inflation. 

 

They argue that it is the role of international organisations and the way they regulate global trade to ensure that any reimagining of globalisation is fairer.  

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Davos elites need to wake up to ‘megathreats’ the world is facing | Nouriel Roubini | The Guardian

Davos elites need to wake up to ‘megathreats’ the world is facing | Nouriel Roubini | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - January 19, 2023 3:12 PM
IMF and others have warned we face the most acute economic and financial challenges in decades
Graham Watson's insight:

Nouriel Roubini has never knowingly been overly optimistic; at least he's consistent here, arguing that the super-elite at Davos seem to be blind to the extent of the megathreats facing the global economy. 

 

He thinks that we are "facing not only the worst of the 1970s (repeated negative aggregate supply shocks), but also the worst of the 2007-08 period (dangerously high debt ratios) and the worst of the 1930s, with the rollback of globalisation and the threats that this poses to international stability. 

 

Is he right? You might argue that he only has to be right once...

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Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

Senegal fights to end dominance of imported rice

From www.youtube.com - October 21, 2022 1:14 AM

With the global health crisis and war in Ukraine bringing food security into sharp focus, Senegal is trying to ramp up its domestic production of rice but a growing population is keeping it dependent on the whims of the export market.

Graham Watson's insight:

This Reuters clip highlights one of the disadvantages of free trade - it exposes economies to global economic shocks - and in this case, food shortages in India, and restrictions on its export have adversely affected the Senegalese economy, where consumers have become dependent upon imported rice, and a drain on forex reserves. 

 

So what's the solution? The market will ultimately resolve the issue - but the problem is that it will take time, and that the consumers actually prefer imported rice. 

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Davos 2022 meeting was a missed opportunity over globalisation | Joseph Stiglitz | The Guardian

Davos 2022 meeting was a missed opportunity over globalisation | Joseph Stiglitz | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - June 1, 2022 12:32 PM
Business and political elite embraced new ethos at WEF without reflecting on past mistakes
Graham Watson's insight:

Joseph Stiglitz argues that Davos 2022 represents another missed opportunity - yet another - to reflect on the existing global order and it's weaknesses. He argues that, in part, this reveals the myopia of an organisation still uncritically committed to globalisation but with little willingness to tackle the structural issues that remain. 

 

He highlights broken global supply chains, issues with food and energy production and an intellectual property regime that has allowed pharmaceutical companies to profit from the pandemic. Does the new world order need to go beyond the previous model and re-invent itself. 

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Risk of recession in Europe, US and China is rising by the day | Kenneth Rogoff | The Guardian

Risk of recession in Europe, US and China is rising by the day | Kenneth Rogoff | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - April 28, 2022 8:17 AM
Threat of synchronised global downturn may recede by late 2022 but collapse in one region will affect others
Graham Watson's insight:

Another Project Syndicate article suggesting a downturn in the global economy and the risk that any possible collapse in one region will have truly global implications. Is there any other sort?  

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Globalisation is not working – in an age of insecurity, we need more local solutions | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Globalisation is not working – in an age of insecurity, we need more local solutions | Larry Elliott | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - April 21, 2022 6:46 AM
From the supply-chain crisis to Covid vaccines, the past couple of years have brought home the benefits of self-sufficiency, says the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott's piece in today's Guardian makes the case for less globalisation and an increasing focus on local supply chains and self-sufficiency. This runs contrary to conventional economic theory which emphasises the benefits of specialisation and exchange, and comparative advantage.

 

However, he argues that the evidence of the recent past would suggest that globalisation hasn't overcome many of the problems that have emerged and as a result we should be looking for other solutions. I'm not sure I agree but events of the recent past have suggested that there's no harm in looking at the global trade system.  

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Warning shipping delay problems to continue this year

Warning shipping delay problems to continue this year | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - January 26, 2022 9:23 AM
Global product shortages and shipping disruption show no signs of easing, study finds.
Graham Watson's insight:

As reported earlier, it seems as though there's little end in sight to global supply chain issues, with product shortages and disrupted shipping likely to be economic reality until at least the end of 2022.

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How Covid spread fear of globalisation and threatens a new world order | Global economy | The Guardian

How Covid spread fear of globalisation and threatens a new world order | Global economy | The Guardian | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.theguardian.com - October 15, 2021 4:26 AM
Free trade fatigue and strained supply chains were already fracturing the system before the virus accelerated nationalist impulses towards autarky or self-reliance
Graham Watson's insight:

This Guardian piece looks at the impact of the pandemic on global trade, globalisation and the response of the global economy to this. It highlights the fragile nature of global supply chains and the dangers of hyperglobalisation.

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Ningbo: Global supply fears as China partly shuts major port

Ningbo: Global supply fears as China partly shuts major port | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - August 13, 2021 10:22 AM

The closure of a terminal at Ningbo-Zhoushan port came after a worker was infected with Covid-19.

Graham Watson's insight:

The partial closure of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world's third largest cargo port, might have wider implications for the global economy - with fears that the lockdown might spread to other terminals.

 

It highlights the fact that the inter-connected nature of the global economy has both advantages and disadvantages.  

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'Clothes are torn, worn out - I can't find work gloves'

'Clothes are torn, worn out - I can't find work gloves' | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - June 7, 2021 11:12 AM
How supply chains can be strengthened to protect against shocks and shortages in the future.
Graham Watson's insight:

There's not much in the ay of theory here, just an illustration of the fragile nature of the global supply chain and, perhaps, some of the downsides of globalisation. 

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Can Biden succeed in economic rescue mission?

Can Biden succeed in economic rescue mission? | International Economics: IB Economics | Scoop.it
From www.bbc.co.uk - January 20, 2021 1:02 PM
As when he served as vice-president, Joe Biden faces a huge job in turning the US economy around.
Graham Watson's insight:

Faisal Islam summarises the major themes, in as much as they are known, of Bidenomics. 

 

It appears that the Biden administration will pivot towards a tougher approach towards coronavirus, fiscal stimulus on an almost unprecedented scale and re-engaging with the world, and hopefully the global economy. 

 

Let us hope so.  

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