The American position depends not only on relations with Russia, China and the Brics countries, but on fixing its own economic and political problems
Graham Watson's insight:
Barry Eichengreen wonders whether the dollar's position as the global reserve currency is under threat, both from China but also the BRICs. He argues that it probably isn't yet, but unless it acts to resolves its own political and economic problems, not least the ongoing, annual issues with the US debt ceiling.
Six central banks move to keep credit flowing worldwide after two big institutions collapsed.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though there's going to be co-ordinated action by six central banks to increase global liquidity, with the world's major economies looking to increase the flow of dollars around the financial system to ensure that the current banking crisis doesn't trigger a full-scale financial crisis.
The Federal Reserve is steering borrowing costs higher at the fastest rate in decades.
Graham Watson's insight:
The news that US interest rates are going up again, by 0.75%, signals that the Federal Reserve is serious about tackling inflation, taking the benchmark lending rate to 3.75% to 4%.
However, its implications for the global economy are potentially more significant: it's likely to raise borrowing costs for developing economies. it will further bolster an already strong dollar and this will have adverse implications for those people who are net commodity importers.
The Bank of England has its turn next - tomorrow - and it is anticiapted that it will raise rates by a similar amount.
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Some previous surges were followed by sharp declines, but world instability means the euro and yen could fall
Graham Watson's insight:
Ken Rogoff speculates about the causes of this summer's dollar appreciation, and despite America's economic performance not being stellar, the weakness of other economies means that many investors have sought a safe haven.
However, he's also aware that there are dangers associated with this: a strong dollar is bad for developing economies, especially those economies that are reliant on commodity imports; furthermore, he's also concerned about the implications of a an overly-strong dollar ending in a significant depreciation at some future date, and the macroeconomic implications of this.
Analysis: Investors often turn to US currency in times of uncertainty and there are plenty of reasons for them to be jittery
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott writes a brief piece on the weakening of the Euro relative to the dollar, noting that in times of uncertainty, the dollar represents a safe haven as a 'strong' currency. As a result, the demand for the dollar rises at the expense of other currencies.
The US central bank raises rates by 0.75 percentage points as it scrambles to contain soaring prices.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by 0.75%, with the target range rising to 1.5% to 1.75%. This is an attempt to choke off US inflation, which was 8.6% last month.
Many see this as the bank flexing its muscles and showing its willingness to tackle the problem - but is it the appropriate policy. Many people are worried that tighter monetary policy is going to choke off growth and increase unemployment, and there are also other global effects to consider because higher interest rates are likely to strengthen the dollar, and increase other rates, not least on debt repayments from developing economies.
The modernisation of China’s exchange-rate system could deal the currency a painful blow
Graham Watson's insight:
Kenneth Rogoff argues that we're within sight of a time when the US dollar is going to be challenged by China, and the rise of the renminbi.
If China stops pegging its currency to a basket of currencies, and adopts an increasingly modern monetary policy regime with inflation targeting and a free floating currency, then might it threaten to become the global reserve currency - although just not yet.
There has been a surprising lack of volatility during the pandemic and US election, but this could change
Graham Watson's insight:
Ken Rogoff is somewhat perplexed by the apparent stability of the US dollar in the wake of recent events, both pandemic and political.
He wonders what the rise of alternative assets, like Bitcoin and gold, might mean for the dollar, and worries about the effects of this on the US, and by definition, the global economy. That said, he can't see it losing its position as global reserve currency any time soon.
The falling value of the greenback heralds a larger, gradual fragmentation of the international economic order
Graham Watson's insight:
A complex article that looks at the implications of a depreciating dollar - the implications of this for the US economy, and the wider global economy where the dollar serves as the global reserve currency.
Understanding the implications of the former are relatively straightforward - it's getting your head around the latter that is more complicated.
Descriptions of exchange-rate policies have become increasingly militaristic
Graham Watson's insight:
Excellent Project Syndicate article about the importance of the dollar to the global economy and how recent policy moves might have marginally weakened its position as a reserve currency, not least because a belligerent President has tried to talk the dollar down and his unilateral stance towards Iran.
The sharp shift in exchange rates destabilises emerging economies and threatens trade talks
Graham Watson's insight:
Mohamed El-Irian has written an interesting piece on the implications of a stronger dollar for the global economy. He links it to the ongoing problems in Argentina: a strong dollar means weaker currencies in emerging markets, creating inflationary pressure.
While we shouldn’t read too much into the Brics expansion, the geopolitical landscape is shifting
Graham Watson's insight:
Another article on the changing global economic gravity - with the rise of developing economies likely to mean that the established order is going to be increasingly challenged going forward, with any amendments to the BRICS likely to be spearheading that move.
Jerome Powell warned there ‘was more ground to cover’ and rates would stay higher for an extended period
Graham Watson's insight:
Federal Reserve Governor, Jerome Powell, has stated that whilst interest rates are likely to stay high for a while, the pace of interest rate rises is going to slow.
There's lots to unpick here - both for the US economy which has seen four successive 0.75% hikes in rates in recent times, and for the global economy, where US interest rate rises have implications for currency values and for the debts, and debt repayments, of LEDCs.
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Dollar has strengthened on expectations US interest rates will rise, weighing on the pound.
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest from the US, where despite slowing job growth, it seems that market sentiment thinks that the Federal Reserve are going to have to do more to rein in inflation. This means that interest rate rises might well be on the cards, and as a result the dollar strengthened against the pound.
However, the central bank will be wary of having to balance tackling inflation with sustaining economic growth, a tough task.
The Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates for a fourth time as it tries to control inflation.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has announced a sizeable increase in interest rates, by 0.75% or 750 basis points, if you prefer, and a new target interest rate of 2.25% to 2.50%.
Whilst the move is designed to rein in US inflation, the wider implications are a higher cost of borrowing for developing economies, a strengthening of the dollar - and a commensurate rise in the cost of importing dollar-denominated commodities and even greater stresses for the global economy as a whole.
Wall Street braces for rises in borrowing costs in July and September as 8.6% inflation spurs on central bank
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott unpicks the implications of rising US interest rates, both for the US economy and the rest of the world, with the dollar likely to strengthen in the months ahead.
The Federal Reserve is under pressure as the US grapples with its worst inflation in four decades.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has increase US interest rates by 0.5% bringing the rate to a range of 0.75% to 1%. The Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, justified the move in the light of inflation reaching its highest level for 40 years, however the monetary authorities will have to balance this with the need for economic stability given the war in Ukraine.
Ostensibly, it's a contractionary measure but there are all sort of implications for the wider global economy - not least in terms of the impact on other countries' interest rates, the value of the dollar and the cost of servicing debt interest repayments for developing economies.
America enjoys an exorbitant privilege from the fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency. China would like its currency to have the same status. Asia markets correspondent Hudson Lockett explains what China needs to do to make it happen.
Graham Watson's insight:
This clip looks at an increased demand for Chinese assets, and by definition the renminbi. However, as yet, it is unlikely to be able to rival the dollar as the global reserve currency just yet. This position gives the US certain advantages, not least the ability to run trade deficits, but also a reduction in exchange rate uncertainty for US firms.
Despite increased demand for renminbi, the unwillingness of the Chinese government to relax its control over the supply of renminbi means that it's not currently in a position to rival the dollar.
The recent sharp depreciation of the US dollar has led to concerns that it may lose its role as the main global reserve currency.
Graham Watson's insight:
Nouriel Roubini looks at the notion that the dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency, arguing that the fears of this happening have been overstated.
The global economy must not suffer the consequences of the US doing too little, too late
Graham Watson's insight:
Mohammed El-Erian - the notorious Cassandra - writes that the global economy needs the United States to lead it, by re-engaging with international financial organisations, global trade more generally, and in providing a global reserve currency - the dollar.
I don't think he's being unreasonable in any of these assertions.
This article talks about the economic impact cause by the COVID-19 pandemic in line with the racial crisis and how it will affect the global economy if US policies makers don't work together. US policymakers are divided on many issues, but surely they can agree on the desirability of faster, more inclusive, and more durable growth. US policymakers should work together to restore their country’s global economic leadership, by reinvigorating multilateral policy discussions and improving the functioning of the rules-based global system.
The US president blames China but even a basic understanding of economics shows it’s his own policies that bloat the dollar
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm a cynic. But this is one of the more interesting recent Project Syndicate articles, that looks at reasons for the continued strength of the dollar, and why President Trump's attempts to suggest that Chinese manipulation of their currency is to blame.
Not only does it deal with the technicalities of why China can't be accused of currency manipulation on the basis of the current definition, it also explains why his own economic policies have helped buttress the dollar.
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Barry Eichengreen wonders whether the dollar's position as the global reserve currency is under threat, both from China but also the BRICs. He argues that it probably isn't yet, but unless it acts to resolves its own political and economic problems, not least the ongoing, annual issues with the US debt ceiling.