International Economics: IB Economics

At least it's not the case that everyone loses out from Brexit! The Irish government has received a 700m euro windfall from increased customs duties as once free trade between Britain and Eire has been replaced by trade with tariffs. 

So, despite it costing consumers more to buy goods, the Irish government now have more revenues - in what sense is this welfare enhancing though? Or isn't it? 

The UK has joined The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) - the first non-founder member to join. The 11 member group currently accounts for around 13% of global income, and is anticipated to grow faster than the rest of the world in the next few years.

However, for all the Business Secretary's claims about the significance of the deal, it's own estimates only suggest that it will add 0.08% to GDP in the next decade. If only we'd thought of joining local trade partnerships.   

The similarities, and differences between Brexit and Grexit. 

Perhaps the only difference might be that you'd expect Alexis Tsipras to have rather more control of the brief than our Prime Minister.

An interesting Brexit aside - any future deal regarding fishing has significant consequences for Britain's trading partners, in this case Denmark, with somewhere around 60% of the Danish catch coming from British territorial waters.

Hence, it's not only our future that's being affected by any future trade deal.

And it's not only us that's suffering - the European economy has stalled and Brexit is only likely to make this worse. The French and Italian economies are shrinking, and so the latest European growth figures are going to be exceptionally weak.

I wonder if any Brexiteers will make some crass reference to this in the week ahead.

The latest IMF assessment of the state of the UK economy isn't good - it forecasts the slowest growth since the financial crisis, largely as a result of ongoing trade wars and the disturbance of Brexit.

It looks like the Irish are looking forward to the prospect of no deal - the Irish are going to protect themselves in the event of no deal, but this is going to come at some cost. 

Larry Elliott with a piece looking at the future of the Eurozone, and from a European perspective. His view is that while we are obsessing about Brexit, Europeans have bigger fish to fry. His view is that the EU faces more pressing problems, and that coping with then next recession will reveal that the Eurozone requires reform.  

The impact of Brexit is going to affect a lot of people, not least those businesses located close to the Irish border. This Guardian article examines how they're going to be affected.

Another Brexit story - but with a remarkable angle this time. This BBC piece looks at the potential impact of Brexit on the Kenyan flower trade, not a link that's immediately obvious.

However, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit could see Kenya go from getting unrestricted access to the UK market via an EU trade deal, to facing tariffs of 8.5-12% reducing their ability to export to the UK.

For all the naysayers, like me, there are many others who see Brexit as a fantastic opportunity. In this instance, it's the Prime Minister of Poland, who is trying to encourage Polish workers to return from the UK and boost the country's labour supply and thus it's productive capacity, helping growth.

The Guardian looks at the issues likely to be on the agenda at Davos, in between the canapes and the arrival of the ghastly Trump entourage.

More international trade news: with the boss of the WTO calling the present situation the "Worst crisis in trading system since 1947".

Have we really stooped so low? The answer may well be "Yes", on many fronts.

Nice to see that the UK and the EU have resolved all Brexit-related trade issues a mere 7 years after the Brexit vote, but at least there's an attempt to agree some sort of compromise in the electric vehicle market might mean that the impact of a 10% tariff on exports of electric vehicles, due to come into force in January 2024.

You'd have thought that there were some fairly obvious lessons to draw from this debacle, but I'll leave others to draw them. It strikes me as self-evidently better for there to be no trade barriers between the UK and the EU in this, and every other market. 

Of course, this is unlikely to be resolved swiftly, given the egos involved. 

Let's compare ad contrast: whose been most adversely affected by Brexit? The EU or the UK? 

So much for holding all the cards. It appears we're the ones facing higher prices and less choice in our shops and labour shortages in certain sectors of industry. And whilst Europe's also facing higher prices, and inflation, because of exogenous factors, it seems that we've got the rough end of the deal.

A clarion call from the head of the IMF, Kristina Georgieva, asking for an extension to Brexit trade talks, to reduce economic uncertainty, at the present time. It would seem sensible, but I suspect that the politics of Brexit are more complex than that. 

Brexit again, but this time, the problems being caused aren't for the UK but our former European partners - who are planning their budget in our absence. 

Europe's largest economy has avoided going into recession by the smallest of margins, growing by 0.1% in the last quarter, after shrinking in the previous quarter. It will be interesting to see how many government ministers use this to highlight the 'strong' performance of the UK economy in contrast, or heaven forbid suggest it as a reason for leaving the EU.

They would do well to reflect upon the fact that Germany has a higher GDP per capita, shorter working hours, and is a larger exporter than we are, and thus more likely to suffer as a result of the ongoing trade uncertainty.

It's also one of our biggest trade partners. Proof that you should be careful what you wish for. 

Trouble in the Eurozone, with German growth slowing and the region as a whole stalling...

Watch this space.

Growth forecasts for the EU are down - with the ongoing uncertainty regarding trade wars and Brexit the principal drivers of this.

It seems that no-one's ready for no-deal.

If ever something were made more likelier to happen...

The opportunity cost of Brexit goes well beyond our borders - here the port of Dublin is reported as having to build new infrastructure to cope with the need for more customs checks among other things. 

It's not just the UK that's going to be damaged by Brexit - our trading partners will also suffer, with Central and Eastern Europe likely to bear the brunt of this. This Guardian article looks at how Brexit will affect Eastern and Central European service sector providers, luxury furniture manufacturers and tourist destinations.

Phillip Inman effectively outlines the headwinds facing the global economy, and, in effect, outlining those issues likely to vex the attendees at Davos. 

Another in the Brexit basics series - this clip looks at what the single market itself actually means, highlighting the free movement of goods and services, financial capital and factors of production - principally EU citizens.

An introduction - little more...