The bank says it wants confidence about inflation cooling before it starts cutting rates.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 - 5.5% in the face of the strong performance of the US economy and concerns that the economy hasn't yet completely rid itself of inflation.
As a result, although rates are expected to fall by 0.75% in the course of the year, they've not come down yet and this has wider implications for the global economy, with other developed economies wondering whether to follow suit, not least the Bank of England, which announces its latest interest rate decision tomorrow.
Six central banks move to keep credit flowing worldwide after two big institutions collapsed.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though there's going to be co-ordinated action by six central banks to increase global liquidity, with the world's major economies looking to increase the flow of dollars around the financial system to ensure that the current banking crisis doesn't trigger a full-scale financial crisis.
Jerome Powell and Mervyn King reject taking on climate policy, while Mark Carney and Christine Lagarde say action is vital
Graham Watson's insight:
It's difficult to place this article - however, I'll put it here because of its international implications. It poses a pretty important question about the extent to which central banks should take an active position on climate change.
The debate has divided central bankers, some argue that it imperils central bank independence, others that the banks have a remit to guarantee economic stability and that to ignore it is a dereliction of duty. The future direction travel in this area is, thus, unclear, and yet to be determined.
We use latest technology to produce our notes so that it looks 100% https://banksnote.com identical to the real note. This thus implies all security features present in the real notes are present in the note we make. Our team is made up of Quality IT technicians from Morocco, US, Russia, India, https://banksnote.com Korea and China etc We offer high quality counterfeit NOTES for all currencies.
Why would you buy from us? https://banksnote.com Our banknotes contain the following security features that make it to be genius and we have the best grade counterfeit in the world both Euro and Dollar and any bills of your choice you want. Security features of our bank notes below : https://banksnote.com Intaglio printing Watermarks Security thread https://banksnote.com See-through register Special foil/special foil elements Iridescent stripe / shifting colors. https://banksnote.com
Our banknotes are printed on 80% cotton 20% cellulose paper which differs substantially from normal paper. By using a special printing technique, several picture elements on the front of the banknote are identifiable by touch. The guidelines on detecting counterfeit currency give a comparison of genuine and falsified security features. https://banksnote.com
- Our bills/notes bypass everything, counterfeit pens and machines.https://banksnote.com - Can be used in banks but can be used else where same like normal money - We have the best HOLOGRAMS AND DUPLICATING MACHINES - UV: YES
Central banks are set on a path to cause recession – and marginalised people will pay the price
Graham Watson's insight:
Joseph Stiglitz takes a view regarding the future direction of travel as far as monetary policy is concerned: his view is that central banks tightening monetary policy is destined to precipitate recessions.
His argument, and that of many, is that tighter monetary policy will have no impact upon the supply of computer chips or oil but will reduce expenditure and thus its effects will fall most heavily on the most vulnerable. Instead, his view is that targeted fiscal policy would be much more appropriate as we attempt to 'normalise' interest rates rather than using them to choke off seemingly non-existent demand-side pressure.
We use latest technology to produce our notes so that it looks 100% https://banksnote.com identical to the real note. This thus implies all security features present in the real notes are present in the note we make. Our team is made up of Quality IT technicians from Morocco, US, Russia, India, https://banksnote.com Korea and China etc We offer high quality counterfeit NOTES for all currencies.
Why would you buy from us? https://banksnote.com Our banknotes contain the following security features that make it to be genius and we have the best grade counterfeit in the world both Euro and Dollar and any bills of your choice you want. Security features of our bank notes below : https://banksnote.com Intaglio printing Watermarks Security thread https://banksnote.com See-through register Special foil/special foil elements Iridescent stripe / shifting colors. https://banksnote.com
Our banknotes are printed on 80% cotton 20% cellulose paper which differs substantially from normal paper. By using a special printing technique, several picture elements on the front of the banknote are identifiable by touch. The guidelines on detecting counterfeit currency give a comparison of genuine and falsified security features. https://banksnote.com
- Our bills/notes bypass everything, counterfeit pens and machines.https://banksnote.com - Can be used in banks but can be used else where same like normal money - We have the best HOLOGRAMS AND DUPLICATING MACHINES - UV: YES
Decision about how to fight inflation follows increase by unprecedented 0.75 percentage points
Graham Watson's insight:
Following this week's unprecedented 0.75% rise in European interest rates, the European Central Bank has signalled that further rate rises are on the way - with monetary policy in both Europe and the UK looking to bring down inflation.
Agustín Carstens challenges Bank of England’s outlook, which estimates inflation will fall next year
Graham Watson's insight:
Contrary to the view of the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve, Agustin Carstens - the former Finance Minister of Mexico, and now head of the Bank for International Settlements, believes that we might be entering a new phase of high global inflation.
It's not current orthodoxy but it's certainly a possibility - and worth considering.
Food and drink firms are seeing price rises of as much as 18% while manufacturers struggle with costs.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Food and Drink Federation boss Ian Wright told the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee that inflation is running between 14%-18% for hospitality firms.
Currently, UK inflation is 3.2% more generally, but it's heading upwards, and there are concerns about the extent to which the Bank of England has the policy tools to deal with it, given its cost-push nature.
Equally, unlike many, the boss of the industry group has recognised that the costs of inflation are unevenly distributed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also warned the economic downturn "may last until late 2021".
Graham Watson's insight:
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has said that he expects the impact of the coronavirus downturn to last until late 2021. This is not something that President Trump will be keen to hear and, if I were him, I'd worry about my job security, such as it is.
However, this is one of the first occasions that a central bank has acknowledged the implausibility of a V-shaped recovery, and admitted of the possibility of hysteresis, something that Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England was reluctant to do.
And again, there are multiplied implications for the global economy of a slowdown in the world's largest economy.
Stubbornly high inflation forces central banks to avoid cuts, but markets expect falls next year
Graham Watson's insight:
This week sees the final interest rate decisions of 2023, with most analysts expecting the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank to leave rates unchanged, although it's expected that rates are going to fall next year.
Merry Christmas, everyone! It seems that the threat of inflation, notably in the UK where CPI was 4.6% in October, means that they want to see if inflation will fall further before cutting rates.
Concern about trouble in finance sector, plus renewed momentum in UK economy, could halt rises City analysts thought were a certainty
Graham Watson's insight:
The Observer suggests that the prospect of further interest rate rises in the immediate future might be put on hold given the prevailing uncertainty in the banking system surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse.
As a result, central bankers might be tempted to hold off on rate rises, notably the Bank of England this week - although, I'd be surprised in this case.
Inflation soared in 2022 amid Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and a broken supply chain – but here’s what we can expect next
Graham Watson's insight:
A quick snapshot of US inflation - always worth a peak at other economies, not only is it an inherent part of the IB syllabus but it also provides an interesting frame of reference for looking at your own economy.
It's interesting to note that US inflation peaked in June at 9.1% - lower than UK inflation - and interest rates are currently 4.5% - higher than ours. This might get you thinking - why has the UK had higher inflation than the US, and why is UK monetary policy lagging behind the Federal Reserve, and what are the implications of this?
We use latest technology to produce our notes so that it looks 100% https://banksnote.com identical to the real note. This thus implies all security features present in the real notes are present in the note we make. Our team is made up of Quality IT technicians from Morocco, US, Russia, India, https://banksnote.com Korea and China etc We offer high quality counterfeit NOTES for all currencies.
Why would you buy from us? https://banksnote.com Our banknotes contain the following security features that make it to be genius and we have the best grade counterfeit in the world both Euro and Dollar and any bills of your choice you want. Security features of our bank notes below : https://banksnote.com Intaglio printing Watermarks Security thread https://banksnote.com See-through register Special foil/special foil elements Iridescent stripe / shifting colors. https://banksnote.com
Our banknotes are printed on 80% cotton 20% cellulose paper which differs substantially from normal paper. By using a special printing technique, several picture elements on the front of the banknote are identifiable by touch. The guidelines on detecting counterfeit currency give a comparison of genuine and falsified security features. https://banksnote.com
- Our bills/notes bypass everything, counterfeit pens and machines.https://banksnote.com - Can be used in banks but can be used else where same like normal money - We have the best HOLOGRAMS AND DUPLICATING MACHINES - UV: YES
Raising rates has no effect when the things that are rising in price the fastest, such as fuel and food, are essential purchases
Graham Watson's insight:
A lovely article about the nature of monetary policy, which looks at the conduct of global central banks and also highlights the difference between demand-pull and cost-push inflation.
In essence, Philip Inman argues that current rhetoric about tightening monetary policy to tackle inflation has had, and will have, little effect upon it, in large part because inflation is driven by higher energy prices.
In the fight against inflation the ECB, Bank of England and Federal Reserve risk either doing too much too soon, or too little too late
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott sets out the dilemma facing central banks across the developed world - how should they act? Increase rates? Keep rates the same? By how much? For how long?
The risk is more pain for consumers now if it tries to avoid inflation worsening in the future.
Graham Watson's insight:
There's not much theory here, apart, perhaps from some reflection on whether higher benefit payments or public sector pay deals might stoke a wage-price spiral, both of which strike me as slightly peculiar arguments if you're prepared to allow private sector and executive pay to keep pace (or exceed) inflation.
However, you might reflect on what the government can do to control inflation as the MPC meets this week, and many see another interest rate rise as inevitable. Of course, David Blanchflower has been on the Today programme this morning advocating a rate cut - but he's known to be a contrarian.
As demand returns since initial pandemic slump, central banks need to balance recovery and rising costs
Graham Watson's insight:
A look around the world's largest economies for insights into how they are dealing with the spectre of inflation - and an interesting chart detailing how shortages are feeding into price rises across the globe.
It seems that many central banks look like holding off on interest rate increases for fear of jeopardising the recovery from the pandemic. Indeed, many still have to wind down their QE schemes, and will do that before raising rates.
And then there's the UK where, it seems, a rate rise is more likely.
Banks now tackle diverse issues, be it Covid-19, climate change or inequality. Purists may disagree but there’s no other option
Graham Watson's insight:
Barry Eichengreen reflects upon the changing nature of central banks and their wider remit, moving away from the conduct of monetary policy into broader debates about climate change, inequality and so on.
To get content containing either thought or leadership enter:
To get content containing both thought and leadership enter:
To get content containing the expression thought leadership enter:
You can enter several keywords and you can refine them whenever you want. Our suggestion engine uses more signals but entering a few keywords here will rapidly give you great content to curate.
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 - 5.5% in the face of the strong performance of the US economy and concerns that the economy hasn't yet completely rid itself of inflation.
As a result, although rates are expected to fall by 0.75% in the course of the year, they've not come down yet and this has wider implications for the global economy, with other developed economies wondering whether to follow suit, not least the Bank of England, which announces its latest interest rate decision tomorrow.