Stop development when the cost of continuing exceeds the benefit that the client enterprise will receive from the development.
✥ ✥ ✥
The vendor works to deliver to the client as long as ongoing work continues to increase the overall value (such as net present value) of all Product Increments.
In addition to ensuring that value to the client doesn’t decrease, also make sure that stopping development at these points won’t cripple the vendor’s profitability or value. The client may agree to pay a termination fee to the vendor in the event that it terminates the agreement early, but the client still pays much less than if it had pursued the agreement to the end. One can argue in all fairness that such a fee covers the vendor’s opportunity costs while lining up new business. It is best that the vendor ensures, from the beginning, that each deliverable (Sprint) has positive value to the client, so that the client doesn’t put the vendor at risk over the life-cycle development.
For an example, see “Change for Free and Money for Nothing” in [1] (Chapter 8, ff. 193), that describes a pay-as-you-go contract where the client negotiated the right to terminate the contract at the end of any Sprint—as long as they paid 20 percent of the cost of remaining development. The client paid $3.2 million for a product bid at $10 million and got it 17 months early, thanks to incremental delivery and being able to stop development when the feature set was complete. Furthermore, the client also used Change for Free to redirect some of the work into areas of higher value. In the meantime, the vendor, who had set up the contract to give a profit margin of 15 percent, ended with a net profit margin of 60 percent. Released from the contract early, the vendor was able to pursue additional contracts instead of having to wait 17 months to do so.
Modèle de Markov observable
Considérons la situation qui suit :
Vous êtes enfermés chez vous un jour de pluie, et vous aimeriez déterminer le temps qu’il fera lors des cinq prochains jours.
Pour simplifier encore plus, vous considérez qu’il y a seulement trois temps possibles: soleil, nuages ou pluie.
En se basant sur les observations des derniers mois, vous établissez le diagramme de transitions suivant :