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You probably read the recent NYT post about a new method for analyzing script success? Hulk smashes it.
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Scooped by Martin (Marty) Smith |
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Can We Predict The Future
I believe in our ability to predict the future at least as far as a website is concerned. Websites are like tiny plays with less improv than you might think. After enough math is run through the pipe you know where the water is going and how to make it dance.
This article argues the application of sabermetrics to the movies is an absurd affront and they might be right. What movie to make has many more movie parts than what a visitor to a website needs to see to convert.
In his Foundation Series Asimov created the idea of "Psycho-History". Society was so mathematically advanced it could determine the future in aggregate. I think a web's future can be determined too, again in aggregate. An individual may rogue out, but "VISITORS" as a class are predictable.
My story and sticking to it with the help of my favorite quant (Melinda Thielbar @Mthielbar ). Fascinating article on the other side here though.