Curation Revolution
55.0K views | +0 today
Follow
Curation Revolution
Curation the next web revolution.
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Martin (Marty) Smith
Scoop.it!

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and the Movies

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and the Movies | Curation Revolution | Scoop.it
You probably read the recent NYT post about a new method for analyzing script success? Hulk smashes it.
Martin (Marty) Smith's insight:

Can We Predict The Future
I believe in our ability to predict the future at least as far as a website is concerned. Websites are like tiny plays with less improv than you might think. After enough math is run through the pipe you know where the water is going and how to make it dance.

This article argues the application of sabermetrics to the movies is an absurd affront and they might be right. What movie to make has many more movie parts than what a visitor to a website needs to see to convert.

In his Foundation Series Asimov created the idea of "Psycho-History". Society was so mathematically advanced it could determine the future in aggregate. I think a web's future can be determined too, again in aggregate. An individual may rogue out, but "VISITORS" as a class are predictable.

My story and sticking to it with the help of my favorite quant (Melinda Thielbar @Mthielbar ). Fascinating article on the other side here though.

No comment yet.
Scooped by Martin (Marty) Smith
Scoop.it!

Website Design In 3 Dimensions, Why Google's Float Is A Blueprint For Web 3.0

Website Design In 3 Dimensions, Why Google's Float Is A Blueprint For Web 3.0 | Curation Revolution | Scoop.it

A friend who is uber-smart and talented got me thinking about How Entropy Is Creating Web 3.0 Right Under Our Noses today. This piece is Entropy Redux or what happens after the more to greater randomness takes hold of us by the scruff of the next :). 

 

It is about the coming apocalypse in website design. Every UX rectangle we draw today is sure to be replaced by conditional logic soon. Why? It’s all Google's Fault. 

 

Martin (Marty) Smith's insight:

3 Dimensions of Web 3.0
The three dimensions of Web 3.0 might not be what you think, they are:

* Space.

* Time.

* Behavior.

 

Behavior may seem a strange "dimension" but it is the defining dimension of Web 3.0's predictive analytics future. Behavior, what a visitor does or is doing on your website will lock a persona.

Once a persona is identified, and it shouldn't take more than three "touches", a path forms. When a visitor arrives at your web 3.0 site you already know a lot. You know where they came from, if they are new or returning and what keyword or partner brought them to your website.

Let's say you already have 2 of the 3 touches needed for persona definition. Those first touches have formed a page created with a single goal - finding the 3rd touch point. The 3rd touch point completes the persona definition and forms the path.

As behavior continues over time the space the visitor "sees" is highly influenced by similar patterns. If a visitor goes "rogue" creating a new path (in real time) its all good and all recorded. Recorded because rogue paths can become part of the branching algorithm once the rogue path is seen more than once.

 

This is why behavior is a dimension online, but not a dimension separate from space and time. Web 3.0 mashes all three website design dimensions into a single 3 way Chinese finger puzzle. Each web 3.0 "dimension" is inextricably tied to the other two.


See Also: 
A Brief History of Time and Web 3.0
http://www.scoop.it/t/design-revolution/p/3995357618/a-brief-history-of-time-and-web-3-0  

 

No comment yet.