Climate Change & DRR in East Africa

Farmers in Kenya can potentially thrive even as climate changes, but their chances of success would be greatly enhanced with supportive policies and forward planning.

The study, which was funded in part by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), offers a detailed snapshot of Kenyan agriculture now and predicts how shifting demographics and future growing conditions could affect food security and crop production. The analysis includes projections for crop yields, population growth, and income, as well as scenarios for climate change from four different models. When taken together, these projections reveal a number of insights about Kenya’s future...

Population rising but GDP must catch up

The report notes that populations are projected to rise anywhere from 75% to 150% by 2050, increasing pressure on productive resources, which could lead to food insecurity. There is also an increasing trend towards urbanization. Though GDP is on the rise, growth rates may remain very slow unless Kenya implements policies to stimulate economic growth while concurrently reducing the rate of population growth...

This food policy report presents a typology of the diverse livelihood strategies and development pathways for smallholder farmers in developing countries, and offers policy recommendations to help potentially profitable smallholders meet emerging risks and challenges.

 

Main Findings

 

Smallholder farmers in developing countries play a key role in meeting the future food demands of a growing and increasingly rich and urbanized population. However, smallholders are not a homogeneous group that should be supported at all costs. Whereas some smallholder farmers have the potential to undertake profitable commercial activities in the agricultural sector, others should be supported in exiting agriculture and seeking nonfarm employment opportunities.

 

For smallholder farmers with profit potential, their ability to be successful is hampered by such challenges as climate change, price shocks, limited financing options, and inadequate access to healthy and nutritious food. By overcoming these challenges, smallholders can move from subsistence to commercially oriented agricultural systems, increase their profits, and operate at an efficient scale—thereby helping to do their part in feeding the world’s hungry.