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A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 | Virology News | Scoop.it

Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial.

Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed.

The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918--19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year.

 

Pandemic recombinant influenza virus graphic from Russell Kightley Media

Ed Rybickis insight:

This is an interesting paper, because it is one of the ONLY ones I have ever seen that analyses ANYTHING to do with the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, that comes from a developing country.  Moreover, it makes what I think is possibly quite a valuable contribution to "health geographics", especially for high-denisty low-income populations.

I also note that 15 MILLION PEOPLE were estimated to have died in India ALONE: this is close to the old estimate for the WORLD total (20 million), which was revised upwards to 50-100 million after developing country stats were taken into account, in the late 1990s.

Makes you wonder what a new version might do....

 

 

Max Minard's curator insight, March 22, 2015 10:52 PM

This analysis focuses on population density in regards to the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919. After extensive research and experimenting, researchers found that "districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%)". With the results from these experiments, geographers will be able to predict future pandemic patterns in population and how to stop virus at form spreading further. By determining techniques to stop the pandemic while observing the population density of the outbreak, they might be able to successfully stop the disease at its source. Personally, I see this as not only a medical break through, but a geographical innovation that allows us to study population density in a much more extensive fashion. 

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PDB-101: Goodsell Gallery: Coronavirus Life Cycle

PDB-101: Goodsell Gallery: Coronavirus Life Cycle | Virology News | Scoop.it

This illustration shows a cross section through a cell infected with a coronavirus such as SARS-CoV-2. It shows a time point when the virus is actively replicating, and new viruses are being created. The cell’s molecules are shown in blues and greens, and the viral molecules are shown in pinks and purples. The illustration integrates the current state of knowledge, but many aspects of the virus and its life cycle are still actively being studied, so portions of the painting are speculative. Additional resources for exploring coronavirus are available at PDB-101 and the main RCSB PDB site.


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Coronavirus killed three times as many people as flu and pneumonia combined, figures show | UK News

Coronavirus killed three times as many people as flu and pneumonia combined, figures show | UK News | Virology News | Scoop.it
The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also "significantly higher" than for flu and pneumonia this year.
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Russia likely to register a second COVID-19 vaccine on October 15

Russia likely to register a second COVID-19 vaccine on October 15 | Virology News | Scoop.it
The vaccine has been developed by Siberia’s Vector Institute, which completed early-stage human trials of the vaccine last month.
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Sequential infection with influenza A virus followed by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) leads to more severe disease and encephalitis in a mouse model of COVID-19. | bi...

bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution...
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Poultry farmers and pet bird keepers urged to prepare for winter avian flu

Poultry farmers and pet bird keepers urged to prepare for winter avian flu | Virology News | Scoop.it
Poultry keepers are urged to prepare for winter avian flu and reduce the risk of disease in their birds over the winter...
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Andrew Wakefield's fraudulent war on vaccines

Andrew Wakefield's fraudulent war on vaccines | Virology News | Scoop.it
Described by the New York Times as "one of the most reviled doctors of his generation", Andrew Wakefield, known for his false claims of a causative connection between the MMR vaccine and autism, was struck off following a hearing of the General Medical Council in 2003.
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Novavax Announces COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing Agreement with Serum Institute of India

Novavax Announces COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing Agreement with Serum Institute of India | Virology News | Scoop.it
NVAX Novavax Inc Novavax Announces COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing Agreement with Serum Institute of India, Increasing Novavax’ Global Produc...
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Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions | Virology News | Scoop.it
A metapopulation stochastic epidemic model for influenza shows the need to include air transportation when assessing the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The impact of the use of antiviral drugs is also measured.
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In coronavirus vaccine race, China inoculates thousands before trials are completed | Reuters

In coronavirus vaccine race, China inoculates thousands before trials are completed | Reuters | Virology News | Scoop.it
China is inoculating tens of thousands of its citizens with experimental coronavirus vaccines and attracting international interest in their development, despite expert concerns over the safety of drugs that have not completed standard testing.
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Coronavirus vaccine may be ready for public November – China

Coronavirus vaccine may be ready for public November – China | Virology News | Scoop.it
An official the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guizhen Wu, has said the coronavirus vaccines being developed in China may be ready...
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Why the Mutation That Made SARS-CoV-2 More Infective Isn't That Big a Deal

Why the Mutation That Made SARS-CoV-2 More Infective Isn't That Big a Deal | Virology News | Scoop.it
The chances that a vaccine will not work due to a single amino acid changing is very, very, very low.
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Louis Vuitton designed a luxury face shield selling for nearly $1K

Louis Vuitton designed a luxury face shield selling for nearly $1K | Virology News | Scoop.it
Louis Vuitton designed a luxury face shield selling for nearly $1K...
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Flu Season Disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere This Year –

Flu Season Disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere This Year – | Virology News | Scoop.it
Ever since we all started wearing masks and social distancing because of COVID-19 I’ve been wondering whether this would have an effect on other illnesses. Will we have fewer colds? Less flu? It seems like we should.
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Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence, prevention and control 

As public health teams respond to the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), containment and understanding of the modes of severe acute resp…...
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'Brain fog': the people struggling to think clearly months after Covid | World news | The Guardian

'Brain fog': the people struggling to think clearly months after Covid | World news | The Guardian | Virology News | Scoop.it
Doctors grapple for answers as more patients report post-coronavirus cognitive impairment...
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'Near extinction' of influenza in NZ as numbers drop due to lockdown

'Near extinction' of influenza in NZ as numbers drop due to lockdown | Virology News | Scoop.it
Mask wearing and social distancing for Covid-19 has all but cut influenza cases in New Zealand this year, with only six flu isolates detected in this country from April to August.  Professor Michael Baker offers his analysis.
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Coronavirus can last 28 days on glass, currency, study finds | Inquirer News

Coronavirus can last 28 days on glass, currency, study finds | Inquirer News | Virology News | Scoop.it
The virus that causes COVID-19 can survive on banknotes, glass and stainless steel for up to 28 days, much longer than the flu virus, Australian researchers said on Monday, highlighting the need for cleaning and hand-washing to combat the virus.
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What counts as a 'superspreader' event?

What counts as a 'superspreader' event? | Virology News | Scoop.it
Face-to-face gatherings up the chance for COVID-19's spread, but which events are "superspreaders" and how can we prevent them? An expert explains.
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Vaccine maker warns it could take until 2024 to vaccinate everyone against Covid-19

The world's largest vaccine maker, Serum Institute, says it may take until 2024 to get everyone a Covid-19 vaccine if the vaccine requires two doses. CNN's Athena Jones reports.
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Flu outbreaks may be linked to COVID-19; arthritis drug benefit seen | BusinessWorld

Flu outbreaks may be linked to COVID-19; arthritis drug benefit seen | BusinessWorld | Virology News | Scoop.it

The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. Flu may be linked with coronavirus spread Influenza outbreaks may be linked with the spread of COVID-19 infections, according to a European study. The researchers created a mathematical model of transmission of the novel coronavirus in Belgium, Italy, Norway and Spain. It calculates that higher rates of influenza infections would be associated with increased coronavirus transmission in each of the countries

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Strict distancing keeps your COVID risk much lower

Strict distancing keeps your COVID risk much lower | Virology News | Scoop.it
"Our findings support the idea that if you're going out, you should practice social distancing to the extent possible..."...
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Russia to Supply 100M Doses of Sputnik V Vaccine to Dr Reddy’s

Russia to Supply 100M Doses of Sputnik V Vaccine to Dr Reddy’s | Virology News | Scoop.it
Sputnik V, an adenovirus vector-based vaccine, was developed by the Gamaleya Scientific Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, along with the Russian Direct Investment Fund and registered on 11 August.
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Sinovac reports preliminary Phase I/II results of COVID-19 vaccine in elderly volunteers

Sinovac Biotech Ltd.(NASDAQ: SVA) ("Sinovac" or the "Company"), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China...
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A role for gorilla APOBEC3G in shaping lentivirus evolution including transmission to humans

A role for gorilla APOBEC3G in shaping lentivirus evolution including transmission to humans | Virology News | Scoop.it
Author summary Humans are exposed continuously to a menace of viral diseases such as Ebola virus and coronaviruses. Such emerging/re-emerging viral outbreaks can be triggered by cross-species viral transmission from wild animals to humans.
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Table: Viruses that Threaten to Spark Another Pandemic

Table: Viruses that Threaten to Spark Another Pandemic | Virology News | Scoop.it
A coronavirus has been commanding the headlines for months, but strains of influenza and paramyxovirus are extremely dangerous pathogens that could spark outbreaks.
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AstraZeneca COVID vaccine trials resume after being put on hold

AstraZeneca COVID vaccine trials resume after being put on hold | Virology News | Scoop.it
Phase three clinical trials resumed after pausing to review safety data. Around 18,000 people have received the vaccine, which is being developed in partnership with the University of Oxford.
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