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MPs' values out of sync with voters

MPs' values out of sync with voters | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Dominic Cummings must be rubbing his hands with glee. As more and more questions are raised about the what some are calling the ‘lethal amaterurism’ that has characterised the Government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, the country spent most of June distracted by furious arguments about race and statues.

This has moved the debate on from Boris Johnson’s chief advisor’s unique approach to optical health. More importantly, a debate about values rather than health outcomes suits the Government down to the ground.
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Backing for immigration hits 40-year high | David Sapsted | Relocate magazine

Backing for immigration hits 40-year high | David Sapsted | Relocate magazine | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
There is more support for legal immigration among Britons than at any other time since the 1980s, according to new research.
In an article published by the London School of Economics, Patrick English, an associate lecturer in data analysis at the University of Exeter, says there has been a collapse in anti-immigrant hostility across the UK since the run-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum.
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Budget 2020: why the Conservatives are placing more emphasis on redistribution

Budget 2020: why the Conservatives are placing more emphasis on redistribution | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
The Conservative Party is not associated with redistribution. This is changing. Not only was the party successful among lower classes in the 2019 election, but the Johnson Government has made signals about redistribution, and the 2020 Budget confirmed initial prognoses. Aside from major investments in public services and housing, the Budget raised the National Living Wage and loosened conditions attached to welfare. Treasury analysis shows considerable increases in spending per household, concentrated among lower-income deciles.
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The age of electoral volatility – Socialism Today

December’s general election outcome produced a flurry of capitalist media commentary hailing a new era of prolonged Tory rule and the possibly terminal demise of the Labour Party.

The Blairite Guardian journalist Jonathan Freedland was just one among many when he wrote of “Labour’s worst election performance since the 1930s… that broke new records for failure” (14 December), in order to feed the narrative – promoted in the immediate aftermath of the result by Tony Blair himself – that, unless ‘Corbynism was ditched’, Labour would be finished.
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How Rebecca Long-Bailey has come full circle on her Brexit views | Latest Brexit news and top stories

How Rebecca Long-Bailey has come full circle on her Brexit views | Latest Brexit news and top stories | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
"I've been on a journey, to be honest, in relation to a public vote or a referendum," said Rebecca Long-Bailey just four months ago, breaking with Jeremy Corbyn to back holding one before a possible general election if necessary.

The Salford and Eccles MP's odyssey now appears complete after she told Andrew Marr it would be "absolutely disastrous to go into the next election advocating a position of rejoining the EU". What a long, strange trip it's been for her, back to square one.
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A new era in opinion polls?

A new era in opinion polls? | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Pollsters around the world have failed to predict the outcomes of many important elections over years. In the US, Franklin Roosevelt defeated Alf Landon in 1936, Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in 1948, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 – all against the predictions of the major opinion polls. In India, many opinion polls performed poorly – either to understand the winner or to estimate the quantum of winning margin – in most of the general elections of this century.
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Tactical voting and the British election

Tactical voting and the British election | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
There has been a lot of talk about tactical voting in the British general election - there are even apps and websites to help people vote tactically.

But will they actually use them? 

Is talk of tactical voting just that - talk? 
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General election 2019: Could undecided voters change the election?

General election 2019: Could undecided voters change the election? | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Will this election be decided by voters yet to make their mind up?

The 2017 election did not turn out the way anyone expected.

When the election was announced, polls showed the Conservatives with a massive lead over Labour.

In the end, the Conservatives lost their majority and there was a hung Parliament.

Support for Labour had steadily increased throughout the campaign.

In 2019, with just over a week to go, could undecided voters make a crucial difference at this late stage?
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Experts predict that the general election will be tighter than expected

Experts predict that the general election will be tighter than expected | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Besides the wall-to-wall coverage, the soundbites, and the floods of campaign materials, the general election also produces a glut of public opinion polls. Rarely is there a time when we hear more about what the public thinks or how they intend to behave, and with good reason: elections provide the public with an opportunity to shape the future of the country, so it is important to understand their thinking in the run up to election day. However, beyond the standard polls and more complex approaches such as MRP models, there are other ways to estimate the likely outcomes of an election. One such approach is citizen forecasts, in which survey researchers ask a sample of the public what they think the outcome of the election will be rather than simply how they intend to vote. Another, related approach is to ask for the predictions of small, sometime maligned, subset of the population: experts.
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General election 2019: Under-30s question politicians in TV debate

General election 2019: Under-30s question politicians in TV debate | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Senior politicians faced questions on housing, climate change and trust from an audience of young people in a Question Time election special.
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General election polls 2019: How many voters really switch parties in British elections? What the evidence tells us | inews

General election polls 2019: How many voters really switch parties in British elections? What the evidence tells us | inews | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
With the 2019 election campaign in full swing, there is little evidence in the polls that things are changing. The overall picture shows both the Conservatives and Labour are both gaining support but the Conservatives remain on track for a majority.
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Rob Johns: Where do voters' loyalties lie? Well, Yes and No

Rob Johns: Where do voters' loyalties lie? Well, Yes and No | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Would you be unhappy if your son or daughter married someone who voted the other way than you in the Brexit referendum?

If you answered 'yes', then you're not unusual - so did 33% of British Election Study respondents.
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Even if the Tories win an election, they’ll be finished | Polly Toynbee | Opinion | The Guardian

Even if the Tories win an election, they’ll be finished | Polly Toynbee | Opinion | The Guardian | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Stop all those clocks in Downing Street, counting down to the Halloween Brexit. Stop Operation Yellowhammer: cancel emergency medicine stockpiling, ferries, warehouses and freezers. Stop this morning’s Operation Brock, diverting HGVs on the M20. Melt down those shamelessly triumphal commemorative 50p coins, and halt the £100m splashed on “Get ready for Brexit” information. Gross maladministration must surely be the National Audit Office verdict, when the day comes to tally the cost, along with those hundreds of thousands of wasted civil-servant hours on the Brexits that never were.
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Why the UK's cultural divide is forcing Labour to be cautious over the Tories and coronavirus

Why the UK's cultural divide is forcing Labour to be cautious over the Tories and coronavirus | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
One of the worst aspects of the coronavirus crisis is the need for Labour to tiptoe politely around the government’s shambolic performance. The Panorama revelations were just the latest evidence that Boris Johnson’s administration has failed on almost every front: medical equipment not stockpiled; Cobra meetings skipped by Johnson; the U-turn on herd immunity; the late lockdown; the testing fiasco; the ventilator farce... the full list.
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More Brits now support immigration than any time since the 1980s and Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories

More Brits now support immigration than any time since the 1980s and Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
More Britons support immigration now more than at any other time since the 1980s, a survey has found.
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Labour's struggle: class and income no longer strongly relate to voting intention

Labour's struggle: class and income no longer strongly relate to voting intention | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
The scale of the electoral challenge for Labour is greater than ever before. Our vote is concentrating inefficiently in too few parliamentary seats and we continue to fail to beat the SNP in Scotland. To win power, we need to win the most parliamentary seats. To do so, we need to modernise our party in order to build a new winning coalition of voters across the country.
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Towards a Constitutional Crisis: Scotland and Britain After the General Election - IDN-InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters

Towards a Constitutional Crisis: Scotland and Britain After the General Election - IDN-InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Choppy waters lie ahead for both defending and defeating the union that is the United Kingdom, with Scotland and England having diverged sharply in their choices at the recent general election (December 2019).

Campaigns in both countries focused on Brexit but in Scotland equal prominence was given to the prospect of a second referendum on independence. In 2014, Scots voted by 55 percent to remain in the UK after a campaign in which both sides shared the wish to stay in the European Union. Two years later, Scotland voted by 62 percent to remain in the EU.
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Election Polls, How Do They Work?

Election Polls, How Do They Work? | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
The final published opinion polls from the 2017 UK general election gave the Conservatives an average lead of 8.5% over Labour. Individual polls from leading outlets gave the Conservatives leads of 10%, 12% and even 13%. The UK Parliamentary Election Forecast model, which combined data provided by the British Election Study with all the publicly released polls, gave a final projected Conservative majority (updated on polling day itself) of 82 seats. A Tory majority was projected to be “almost certain”.
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Starmer says he wants Labour 'rebuilt ... as trusted force for good' as poll puts him leadership favourite – as it happened | Politics | The Guardian

Starmer says he wants Labour 'rebuilt ... as trusted force for good' as poll puts him leadership favourite – as it happened | Politics | The Guardian | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
How Labour members have become more leftwing since 2015
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What do we know about voters who say 'don't know' in election polls?

What do we know about voters who say 'don't know' in election polls? | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
With less than a week to go in the 2019 UK election, many people are undecided. And with margins so narrow, the people who still say they don’t know who they will vote for could have a significant influence on the outcome.

Ongoing research at the University of Manchester, using international survey data and in-depth interviews, is examining the nature of what it means to state that you “don’t know” when you are asked who you are going to vote for in an election.
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Understanding ethnic minority voters in the General Election

Understanding ethnic minority voters in the General Election | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
From January this year it’s been clear that election was on the cards. Yet throughout this year, or during the election campaign itself, we’ve heard very little about ethnic minority voters.

How do ethnic minorities vote, why do they vote the way they do, and what might be their impact on this election?
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UK election ‘extremely difficult to accurately predict’

UK election ‘extremely difficult to accurately predict’ | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
The 2019 U.K. general election is proving to be one of the most volatile and difficult to predict in modern British history, according to local media and pollsters.

This is due both to the ongoing polarization of Brexit and the rising trend of tactical voting.

Tactical voting is where a person votes for a party or candidate who is not their first choice but stands the best chance of beating the party or candidate who they least want to win.
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East Anglia's first time voters grill politicians on trust, Brexit and the environment | Anglia

East Anglia's first time voters grill politicians on trust, Brexit and the environment | Anglia | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Students in Suffolk have been quizzing would-be MPs on trust in politics, Brexit and climate change in ITV News Anglia's School Election Debate.

More than a hundred students, many them first-time voters, tackled politicians from the four political parties fielding the most candidates in the Anglia region at the 2017 General Election.
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14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war | Politics | The Guardian

14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war | Politics | The Guardian | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
Nearly 14 million voters are living in constituencies that have been held by the same political party since at least the second world war, according to an electoral reform campaign group, which said this illustrated a “broken” voting system.
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Millions of women still feel poorly represented – and only their votes can save us from this toxic political climate

Millions of women still feel poorly represented – and only their votes can save us from this toxic political climate | In the news: data in the UK Data Service collection across the web | Scoop.it
100 years ago next month, the first woman MP took her seat in the House of Commons. It’s a sign of how far we’ve come that, since 1919, we’ve had two women prime ministers and dozens more female MPs.
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