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MED-Amin network
(Mediterranean Agricultural Information Network) Fostering cooperation and experience sharing among the national information systems on agricultural (cereals) markets in the Mediterranean. The network of 13 countries is coordinated by CIHEAM, and more specifically by its Mediterranean Agronomic Institute (MAI) of Montpellier.
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Le cours du blé rebondit à Chicago

Le cours du blé rebondit à Chicago | MED-Amin network |, 06/03/2019 - Le cours du blé a nettement rebondi mardi à Chicago après un récent plongeon de plus de 13 %, la hausse s'avérant avant tout d'ordre technique, au même titre que pour le maïs, tandis que le soja a cédé du terrain.

e cours du blé a connu un très mauvais mois de février et on voit simplement le cours rebondir de manière technique », a commenté Dax Wedemeyer, de US Commodities, qui observe un retour des investisseurs pariant sur une hausse du cours. Le prix du boisseau de blé pour livraison en mai, le plus échangé actuellement, avait perdu plus de 13 % entre le 13 février et la clôture de lundi, touchant même à cette occasion son plus bas niveau depuis que ce contrat est échangé, à 4,55 dollars le boisseau. Mais mardi, le boisseau de blé a terminé à 4,63 dollars, soit une hausse de 1,59 %.

« On a besoin de voir un peu d'action » sur le dossier de la guerre commerciale, a indiqué mardi Steve Georgy, de la maison de courtage Allendale, en référence aux informations de presse ayant évoqué dimanche la perspective d'un accord d'ici à la fin du mois. Un avis partagé par les analystes de CHS Hedging qui ont pointé « l'absence de nouvelles après les gros titres de lundi ».

Plus généralement, les investisseurs s'impatientent après que les membres de l'administration américaine ont vanté à de multiples reprises ces dernières semaines l'avancée dans les négociations et évoqué l'imminence d'un accord, sans que cela ne se matérialise toutefois dans les faits.

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2019 Trade Policy Outlook

2019 Trade Policy Outlook | MED-Amin network |

By Ben Conner, USW Vice President of Policy (US Wheat), 09/01/2019 -  If there is anything we learned from 2018, it is that the trade policy landscape is unpredictable. While many upcoming or ongoing issues are known, there are a range of possible outcomes within each, some of which could drastically alter the trade landscape in the future.

Let us start with China. This week, U.S. and Chinese negotiators met in Beijing to work toward resolving the current trade dispute, which has seen tariffs slapped on over $300 billion in trade. The next couple months could reveal if trade will resume this year, or if the conflict will continue.

The United States has also initiated formal processes for trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom.

The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will likely be submitted to Congress this year to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but shifting political dynamics in the United States complicate Congressional approval and implementation of the agreement.

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WTO Members Weigh Options for Addressing Farm Export Restrictions

WTO Members Weigh Options for Addressing Farm Export Restrictions | MED-Amin network |

By the ICTSD (International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development), 22/11/2018

WTO members are debating how to resolve long-standing disagreements over agricultural export restrictions and their impact on humanitarian food aid, sources told Bridges, with the issue taking centre stage during an informal meeting convened on 15 November by the chair of the organisation’s agriculture negotiations. Two new submissions from food-importing countries were discussed at the session, which was called by Guyana’s Ambassador John “Deep” Ford. At the same meeting, negotiators also discussed unresolved agricultural export competition issues, which involve measures seen as analogous to export subsidies at the WTO. 

A paper by Singapore highlighted the impact of export restrictions on food bought by the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) for humanitarian aid, while another paper by Japan and five other co-sponsors examined the use of export restrictions more broadly, drawing on governments’ notifications to the World Trade Organization. The US also tabled a submission on tariffs, although sources said this was not discussed in great depth by participants...

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Guerre commerciale : gesticulation ou menace?

Guerre commerciale : gesticulation ou menace? | MED-Amin network |

UniGrains, extraits de la Lettre d'information T3 2018, 06/07/2018 -

Le repli sur soi est un syndrome qui touche maintenant les échanges internationaux. Les hostilités commerciales entre les États-Unis et la Chine, avec l’Europe en otage entre
deux, vont-elles avoir des répercussions sur nos échanges agricoles et agroalimentaires ?

En marge de la surenchère diplomatique et commerciale engagée par les deux puissances, et de leurs taxations douanières nouvelles à l'importation, deux thèses s'opposent.

L’une, alarmiste, fait peser une incertitude sur les investissements des entreprises sur fond de conjoncture
mondiale incertaine, de montée des cours du pétrole, de l’acier, et effondrement des cours du soja… Cette
thèse chiffre même la perte de PIB à plus de 4 % pour toute l’Europe et à plus de 3 % pour la France , soit
« perte annuelle d’en moyenne 1 250 euros par habitant dans l’UE et 1 125 euros par habitant en France »,
selon le Conseil d’analyse économique.

L’autre thèse, rassurante, n’y voit que gesticulation. Elle rappelle le désaccord profond sur le plan chinois
« Made in China 2025 », lancé en 2015 pour faire de la Chine une puissance industrielle et technologique
capable de rivaliser avec les États-Unis et que veut mettre à mal l’administration américaine.

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WTO rules against China on wheat and rice subsidies

WTO rules against China on wheat and rice subsidies | MED-Amin network |, 01/03/2019 - In a major victory for U.S. farmers, the World Trade Organization ruled on Thursday that China was improperly propping up its wheat and rice farmers by maintaining artificially high prices for their crops.

The ruling by a WTO panel that China had exceeded WTO limits for domestic farm supports brought cheers from U.S. lawmakers, the Trump administration and farm groups.

“U.S. farmers have been hurt by China’s overproduction and protectionist measures for too long and it’s past time for China to start living up to its commitments,” said U.S. Wheat Associates President Vince Peterson. China has not indicated if it will appeal the ruling, a USW spokesman tells Agri-Pulse.

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Turkey facing economic challenges

Turkey facing economic challenges | MED-Amin network |

By Dr. Hikmet Boyacioglu (World Grain), 03/01/2019 — Economic instability has increased in recent months in many parts of the world due to the trade war between the world’s two superpowers — China and the United States — and lower investor confidence, according to global market research company Euromonitor International. Turkey, the world’s leading flour exporter, has been affected by rising trade tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar. “The Turkish lira and Argentine peso have led the decline in emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar due in part to multiple rate hikes by the Fed, including three in 2018,” the CME Group said.

Due to weakness of the Turkish lira, the cost of imported Russian wheat, used in the production of export flour, exceeded Turkey’s domestic wheat price in August...

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US and China trade war having 'fundamental impact' on world grain - Farming UK News

US and China trade war having 'fundamental impact' on world grain - Farming UK News | MED-Amin network |

By Farming UK, 18/10/2018

The strained trade relationship between the US and China is having a fundamental impact on world grain markets, according to Grain Market Outlook Conference.

The US Department of Agriculture’s Seth Meyer delivered the keynote presentation at the annual event hosted by the AHDB, which brought together 150 stakeholders from across cereals and oilseeds supply chain.

 He said the US would break with the norm of supplying China for six months of the season and was looking to export to elsewhere in the world year round.
Charles Clack of Rabobank added that the 25 per cent tariff imposed on US imports left China in a dilemma about where to source enough soybeans to meet demand – a potential impossibility.
At a global level, drought in key growing regions has been partly responsible for a tightening of the wheat market, with the market also sensitised by the potential for Russian export controls.
And while rapeseed supplies remain tight, with China forecast to import an additional 11 per cent in 2018/19, record soybean production in the US means prices have not seen a significant a rally.
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Global Trade War to be a Boon for Black Sea Grain

Global Trade War to be a Boon for Black Sea Grain | MED-Amin network |

10/07/2018, by Polina Devitt and Hallie Gu (Reuters).

Trade conflict between the United States and China could further boost already booming grain and oilseed exports from the Black Sea region, traders and analysts said.

New opportunities to sell wheat, corn and soybeans to China
and even the European Union are set to open up for the region's
main exporters Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, whose recent
ascendancy has already ended full U.S. dominance in markets such as Nigeria and Mexico.

"We have just started buying wheat from Kazakhstan this year. Our first order was for several thousand tonnes," a Chinese wheat trader said. "We will see about sales and profits. If they're good, we will increase imports for sure. It is related to the current trade war."

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